Earnings Labs

Cable One, Inc. (CABO)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 3, 2016

$98.96

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Cable ONE CABO Earnings Report Q3 2016 Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin Coyle, CFO. Please go ahead.

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Cable ONE's third quarter 2016 earnings call. We're excited to have you with us this morning as we review our results for the quarter. Before we proceed, I'd like to remind you that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause Cable ONE's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's press release and in our recent SEC filings. Cable ONE is under no obligation, and in fact expressly disclaims any obligation to update its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Additionally, today's remarks will include a discussion of certain financial measures that are not presented in conformity with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release or on our website at ir.cableone.net. Joining me today on today's call is our Chairman and CEO, Tom Might. And with that, let me turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Might

Analyst

Thank you, Kevin. And good morning to those listening. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA rose almost $10 million and nearly 13% versus last year, which is another fine quarter. That puts us $262 million for the year so far, up $32 million or 14%. Adjusted EBITDA margins have expanded over 300 basis points from 39% in Q3 last year to 42% this past quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA less CapEx performance was even stronger, as our CapEx spending plans slow down. For the year-to-date period adjusted EBITDA less CapEx is up $40 million which is almost 31% higher than year-to-date versus last year. This is high level evidence, I think of our four-year-old strategy to focus on residential data and business services, which have higher margins and higher growth rates, while harvesting the video sub count businesses, which do not, and it continues work. I have reviewed our strategy in light on past earnings call, so I will take a pass on that today. Where we first imagined strategically changing our focus, residential data and business services only represented about 30% of our total revenues, today at 55% they are a majority of total revenues and they are still rising, up from 48% this time last year. We think that bodes well for the future. Somebody on the call usually asks where video sub counts are headed with our current strategy, I always decline to give guidance, but suggest you follow the historical bread crumbs. In anticipation of the question, I will point out that we were down 86,000 videos subs in Q4 last year, 70,000 in Q1 this year and 60,000 in Q2 this year and now 51,000 in Q3 of this year. You can see the trend with our video sub count, you can also see how video sub losses…

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. As Tom already mentioned, we are very pleased with the results we've achieved during the year-to-date, including our strong performance in the third quarter of 2016. First, let me share a few highlights from the quarter. Tom, already mentioned some of these, but adjusted EBITDA grew by 12.6% with a margin of 42.4%. Adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures increased by $13.4 million in the quarter year-over-year or 28%. Residential data revenues increased by almost 19%, business services revenues increased by over 13%. Residential data and business service revenues now comprise almost 55% of our total revenues and as Tom mentioned earlier, total revenues now quarter-to-quarter grew by 3.7%. Now getting in the detailed results, starting with revenues. Total revenues increased $7.3 million or 3.7%, due primarily to increases in residential data and business services revenues of $13.7 million and $3 million respectively. As a result of the customer mix shift towards these two products, which now comprises as I mentioned earlier 55% of our total revenues. These increases were partially offset by decreases in residential video and residential voice revenues of $7.4 million and $1.5 million respectively. The declines in residential video and residential voice revenues were primarily attributable to residential video customer losses of 13.8% and residential voice customer losses of 12.8% for the 12 months ended September 30, 2016. Residential data service revenues increased $13.7 million or 18.8%, due primarily to a rate increase taken in the fourth of 2015, an increase in residential data customers of 1.9% for the 12 months ended September 30, 2016, a reduction in package discounting and increased subscriptions to premium tiers by residential customers. Residential video service revenues declined $7.4 million or 9.1%, due primarily to residential video customer losses of 13.8% and partially offset by a broadcast television surcharge…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Phil Cusick of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Hey, guys. Kevin, I apologize, you went through a lot there really fast. Can you say again what the buyback this quarter was?

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Of shares, sorry…

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Yes.

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Hold on a second, 18,629 shares at a cost of $9.6 million.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Okay. And how should we think about the board's attitude right now, total leverage and capital return, I think I asked this question last quarter. But it seems like you're not going back – buyback back at the pace you could, given the cash flow and leverage, what else is the company thinking about doing?

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Go ahead, Tom…

Tom Might

Analyst

We set a record, we were looking at good M&A opportunities that would be our first preference, organic or inorganic. We're examining a lot of folks. We'll continue to use share repurchases, okay, if we fit as it does benefit the shareholder based on conditions each quarter, but we don’t feel compelled to either on any specific time Phil.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Okay. And I know there is one small cable company out there for sale this quarter, did you look at that, was there an issue with price, because of someone else?

Tom Might

Analyst

I am not going to make any comments on M&A, sorry.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Okay. And you didn't take a price increase, like last October, as you pointed out, should we assume the prices are stable for a while here?

Tom Might

Analyst

I am not going to tell you when we'll take our next, where we took five years to take the last one, we've taken only one six years. So it’s a little bigger than usual, but we're not going to at this point say what our plans are for 2017 because we've not told customers.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Understood. And where are we on the high-speed data rate increase up-tick, are we pretty well fully baked in the third quarters or is there still more to roll in?

Tom Might

Analyst

It should have been effective about the middle, we have four billing cycles. My understanding is that its halfway through October, is probably when we'll see effective.

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

That's correct. So I would have taken out effectively on our cycle billing the middle of the - of October of last year would have been the full effect of it.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thanks, guys.

Tom Might

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

Hi. If we could just stay with the topic raised about the price increase. So how do we think about the absence of the significant uplift in HSD pricing that we've had over the last 12 months. How do we think about the near term revenue trajectories of the business, just over - really over the next two quarters if I think about the lapping and kind of anniversarying the price increase?

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

Craig, we're not obviously going to give exclusive guidance, but we can tell you the numbers that are - in the past quarter the percentages were up about 18% in HSD - residential HSD, we did take a 10% rate increase across all HSD customer last year. We have you know, these are round numbers, 2% volume. So that leaves something like 6%, which is a combination of tier premiums and reduce discounting. So obviously the timing of rate increase and the size of our subscriber growth rate, that I mentioned, so you can just use that to do your math as best you can.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

It is there any offset of - as you start to move to higher speeds, do you expect have faster uptiering in your customer base for - as you move toward the 100 megabit per second offering?

Tom Might

Analyst

Well, that’s been out there for a year now, so – so I think that was September a year ago that we doubled our speed, so that would already be baked in.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

So no real change in that trajectory then?

Tom Might

Analyst

Well, again – it’s been fourth quarter since we doubled the speed, so if you can go back and look for third quarter, fourth quarter last year to see if there was change. I don't have it in front of me, I mean, you could look that up. So no that I would have done it, only do for that reason, but that’s when you would have seen it between third and fourth quarter of last year if there was a change.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

Got it…

Tom Might

Analyst

That’s coincided with a rate increase, so that sort of would be difficult to tease out I guess.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

Understood. And then if I could just ask one more question, have you seen any change in the posture of your programming partners over the last 12 months, as you in your negotiations and conversations for renewal, given the strategy that you’ve taken with respective to video?

Tom Might

Analyst

Well, we buy most of our program through the FTC, so we're negotiating directly for too much of it, and to my knowledge that I don't have perfect knowledge on this no, on those that we buy directly.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephan Bisson of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Stephan Bisson

Analyst

Good morning. A couple if I may. The first on the merger – not the merger, on the acquisition -related costs, is that something we should be thinking of as recurring at all or is it kind of be a one-off as things come along to look at?

Tom Might

Analyst

Kevin…

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

It’s not recurring. Yes, let me take that. Stephan, this is Kevin. It's not a recurring cost. They happen from time to time, as we've already mentioned, we don't comment on specific M&A opportunities or expenses. But we're continually evaluating potential targets using a disciplined and patient approach, but it was recurring, we wouldn’t have made an adjustment for it.

Stephan Bisson

Analyst

Got it. And then it looks like sequentially SG&A was up even excluding that expense, are we kind of at a pivot point, you had mentioned a lot of the comparability difference, but is this kind of a more standard run rate to think about going forward?

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

No, I think it's a quarter-to-quarter thing. I mean, we had some additional marketing in the quarter. We had some additional equity and cash-based compensation in the quarter and obviously as we already discussed, we have the $2.5 million of acquisition -related costs. So there are some unusual things in the quarter and the quarters vary, there are not all going to be the same. I think we're still on a good trajectory. As Tom mentioned, and I think we both mentioned, we have significant reductions in headcount that cause salary, wages and benefits to be down $2.4 million. So I think we're still headed in the right direction. We're very frugal and cost-conscious and there are certain items within the quarter that caused the quarter to be up on the SG&A.

Stephan Bisson

Analyst

Got it. That’s all from me. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is a follow up from Phil Cusick [JPMorgan]. Please go ahead.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Hey, guys, thanks. Can you just expand on the better video numbers this quarter? How much of that was driven by lower churn and how much by improvements in gross ads?

Tom Might

Analyst

I don’t have that data in front of me, we don’t publish our churn data…

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Maybe just qualitatively, if you can?

Tom Might

Analyst

What I've said in the past directionally is we implemented the harvest video strategy four years ago, we took a lot of very big steps. They caused some precipitous declines which was okay with our strategy, like dropping Viacom, like dropping an entire door-to-door sales force in October 2013, I believe. We focus on 9% of our starts. They went away in one day. So we've take a couple of larger increases because we were certainly increase because we were sort behind the programming cost curve. So we have those big shocks and are no longer happening and I would, I feel that is – that the absence of those size of shocks are the reason for the changes in the trajectory.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Okay. And then I misspoke earlier, I asked about data ARPU, but I mean to ask about video ARPU, is that – should we assume this sort of the half of the price increase from the second quarter is now reflected in the third quarter numbers or is it fully in?

Kevin Coyle

Analyst

It’s fully in, Phil.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Okay.

Tom Might

Analyst

It was a $4.90 increase back in the first part of June, so it's fully in the price.

Phil Cusick

Analyst

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Thomas Mike for any closing remarks.

Tom Might

Analyst

Thank you. And thank all of you for following Cable One. The Cable One team, not just Kevin and I are proud of our success as standalone public company and so happy that our associates continue to embrace the very unique Cable One way. We just finished by coincidence our annual associate attitude survey which I've been doing for 20 years and never been more pumped up in my 24 years of running Cable One. So thanks to all of you out there listening and to our associates. And thank you and we will speak to all of you next quarter.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.