Mark Mason
Analyst · Glenn Schorr with Evercore
Thank you, Mike and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 4, Citigroup reported first quarter net income of $2.5 billion. Results included a $4.9 billion increase in credit reserves this quarter. This reserve increased reflects the impact of changes in our economic outlook due to COVID-19. These builds are larger, given a significant impact this change in our economic outlook has on our estimated lifetime losses under the new CECL standard. Revenues of $20.7 billion grew 12% from the prior year, primarily reflecting higher markets revenues and the benefit of mark-to-market gains on loan hedges in our corporate lending portfolio. Expenses were roughly flat year-over-year, and we were able to deliver positive operating leverage and a 27% improvement in operating margin. Credit costs were $7 billion this quarter. Our effective tax rate was 19% for the first quarter, below our full year outlook, reflecting a small benefit associated with stock-based incentive compensation. The ultimate economic impact of this health crisis and our performance will continue to evolve over the coming quarters. The impact that we are already seeing varies across our franchise. We saw the earliest impact on consumer behavior in Asia as spending slowed in response to restrictions on travel and other commercial activity. We’re seeing the same pattern today here in the US and now beginning in Mexico, which is likely to put pressure on loan balances. However, deposit growth remains strong across regions and we’re leveraging digital channels to engage with our client. The rate environment has changed significantly. Our accrual businesses reflect the impact of the three US rate cuts seen last year, as well as some impact from additional cuts seen this quarter in response to the crisis, with an expectation for a more pronounced impact going forward. Although I would know that this has been partially offset in areas like TTS, where clients are moving volumes towards us as a stable partner of choice. A similar dynamic is playing out in markets, where we are also seen as a counterparty of choice. Additionally, we are seeing higher corporate loan volumes reflecting drawdowns and new facilities given our clients response to the crisis. And finally, our performance in investment banking reflects the market volatility we’ve seen, as well as the uncertainty that remains on the corporate side. From the onset, we’ve been focused on our employees and our clients and ensuring we maintain balance sheet strength to serve them through this uncertainty. As of March 31st, our CET 1 capital ratio was 11.2%, below our stated target of 11.5% even our efforts to support our clients through this period. Additionally, we had over $800 billion in available liquidity to help support our clients, and including the $4.1 billion transition impact as we adopted CECL at the beginning of the year, as well as the additional reserves taken this quarter, credit reserves stand at roughly $23 billion with a reserve ratio of 2.9% on funded loans. With the level of capital, liquidity and the reserves we hold today, plus significant pre-provision earnings power, we are operating from a position of strength. We’re combining this financial strength with operational resiliency, given investments in our people, operations and technology along with digital capabilities which allow us to partner with and support our clients as we all manage through this crisis. Turning now to each business. Slide 5 shows the results for Global Consumer Banking in constant dollars. Revenues grew 2% as growth in North America was partially offset by lower revenues in Asia, reflecting the initial impact of COVID-19 on customer behavior. Expenses were roughly flat, allowing us to deliver positive operating leverage and 5% improvement in operating margin. Total credit costs of $4.8 billion were up significantly from last year, including a reserve build of approximately $2.8 billion, primarily related to the impact of changes in our economic outlook. Slide 6 shows the results for North America Consumer in more detail. First quarter revenues of $5.2 billion were up 4% from last year. Although the impact of COVID-19 has only been felt in North America in recent weeks, we have leveraged our experience in Asia to inform our response strategy. We’re one of the first banks in the US to provide assistance to help impacted customers starting in early March. We’ve since expanded that support and continue to evaluate whether additional support is needed. In addition, the enhancements we have made to our digital capabilities have prepared us to better respond and continue serving our customers as they manage through this pricing. Digital deposit sales remained strong this quarter at $1.6 billion. We continue to drive mobile adoption of 13% year-over-year. We made change to allow our customers to use self service channels for more transactions, including increased limits for ATM withdrawals, mobile check deposits and Zelle transaction. And we’ve continued to launch new digitally led value proposition such as Citi Wealth Builder, a new digital investment platform for clients in the emerging affluent segments. These capabilities are allowing us to remain engaged with our clients, even as roughly 40% of our branches in the US are now temporarily closed, driven by lower customer traffic, particularly in urban areas. Turning now to the businesses. Branded cards revenue of $2.3 billion grew 7% year-over-year, driven by 5% loan growth and continued spread expansion with net interest revenue as a percentage of loans improving to 933 basis points this quarter. Client engagement remained strong through February with purchase sales growth of roughly 10% for the first two months of the quarter. However, as seen across the industry, purchase sales declined significantly in late March with the implementation of more extensive lockdowns in many states. Categories like travel and entertainment have seen the biggest impact, while there has been some offset from higher spending on essentials as well as higher online sales. So in total, we grew a purchase sale of 3% in branded cards in the first quarter, but the trend line over the past month would indicate a significant decline in purchase activity in the second quarter, which is expected to impact loan growth. Retail Banking revenues of $1.1 billion were largely unchanged year-over-year, as a benefit of stronger deposit volumes and an improvement in mortgage revenues were offset by lower deposit spreads. Our deposit momentum continued to improve with average deposits of 8%. As I noted earlier, digital deposit sales remained strong this quarter even as we continue to adjust pricing, given the current rate environment. We also saw a strong engagement with existing clients, driving balanced growth across deposit [technical difficulty], including checking. While AUMs declined by 6% due to market movements, we drove continued growth in Citigold households and investment fees during the quarter and mortgage revenues grew as a result of increased refinancing activity. Finally, retail services revenues of $1.7 billion were up 4% year-over-year, reflecting lower partner payments and higher average loan. Purchase sales were down 3% year-over-year in the first quarter, again, including significant pressure in late March, driven by reduced client activity and store closures at some of our partners. This is expected to have an impact on new account acquisitions and loan balances as we move through the year. Total expenses for North America Consumer were down 1% year-over-year as efficiency savings more than offset investment spending and volume related costs. Turning to credit, total credit costs of $3.9 billion increased significantly from last year. We built roughly $2.4 billion in reserves this quarter, reflecting the impact of changes in our economic outlook. And net credit losses grew by 8% year-over-year, reflecting loan growth and seasoning in both cards portfolio. Our NCL rates in US branded cars and retail services were 346 and 553 basis points, respectively. Consistent with the uptake we’ve typically seen in the first quarter. Historically, we’ve seen higher NCL rates in the first half versus the second half of the year. However, given the rapidly changing economic environment due to COVID-19, we are likely to see increased pressure on NCL rates in the back half of 2020, consistent with the reserve actions we took this quarter. On Slide 7, we show results for International Consumer Banking in constant dollars. In Asia, revenues declined 1% year-over-year in the first quarter. Despite the early emergence of COVID-19 in the region, we saw strong investment in FX revenues through most of the quarter. This was offset by lower purchase sales activity and loan balances in our card business, driven by restrictions on movement and changes in customer behavior. We also saw an impact on customer acquisitions in products like insurance, which rely more heavily on face-to-face engagement. However, average deposit growth remained strong at 8% this quarter, and we continue to drive digital engagement across the franchise. Today, we are seeing some early signs that we’ll pick up in activity in China as movement restrictions have eased over the past week or so. But that is a small consumer business for us and of course, many other markets are still in an earlier stage of managing through the crisis. Turning to Latin America, total consumer revenues were largely unchanged year-over-year and grew 3% excluding a residual gain last year on the sale of our asset management business. Similar to other regions, we saw good growth in deposits in Mexico this quarter, with average balances up 4%. And we’re also benefitting from improved spreads in card. However, we continue to see pressure on overall loan growth. And while we haven’t yet seen the full impact from COVID-19 in Mexico, we did see a slowdown in purchase sales in March, which is expected to continue as customer behavior will likely follow the pattern we’ve seen in other regions. In total, operating expenses for our international business were up 3% in the first quarter, driven by Mexico, reflecting investments as well as episodic items partially offset by efficiency savings and cost of credit increased to $939 million, primarily driven by the impact of changes in our economic outlook. Slide 8 provides additional detail on global consumer credit trends, which shows the seasonality we typically see in the first quarter. Overall, we have not seen a pronounced impact from COVID-19 on our credit statistics, but it is still early. We do anticipate rising unemployment and therefore higher loss rates than originally expected for this year. However, it is unclear what benefit the historic $2 trillion relief package as well as our own customer relief efforts will have in helping to mitigate some of the potential stress on consumers. I would also note that we are taking appropriate actions to manage new and existing credit exposures, including investments in our operation. And importantly, as I’ve noted on prior calls, we feel good about the quality of our consumer credit portfolios, both relative to the industry as well as Citi’s historical risk exposure. If you look at our US card portfolios as an example, the FICO distributions of our outstanding loans and open to buy exposures due much more towards the higher end than before the 2008 crisis. And as a result, when we stress today’s card portfolios to the same level as 2008, our pro forma loss rates are 25% to 30% lower than experienced in the last crisis. In Asia as you can see from our credit metrics, we maintain a very low risk portfolio targeted at high quality consumers in both our unsecured and mortgage portfolio, where our average LTV is less than 50%. In Mexico, we clearly serve a wider range of clients compared to our other region, given our national footprint. However, we generally target a higher quality segment than our local peers. The credit profile of our clients has improved over time, as we have remained disciplined and tightened down lending criteria since the crisis, which is reflected in our more stable NCL rates over the past few years. We generate strong margins in Mexico as well, with a net credit margin of cards for example, of roughly 20%. That said, clearly the impact of COVID-19 is not fully known at this point and we remain vigilant in managing the portfolio. Turning now to the Institutional Clients Group on Slide 9. Revenues of $12.5 billion increased 25% in the first quarter, as strong performance in fixed income and equity markets as well as the private bank was partially offset by lower revenues in TTS and corporate lending. The quarter also benefited from the impact of $816 million of mark-to-market gains on loan hedges, as credit spreads widen during the quarter. Total banking revenues of $5.2 billion decreased 6%. Treasury and Trade Solution revenues of $2.4 billion were down 5% as reported and 2% in constant dollars, as strong client engagement and solid growth in deposits were more than offset by the impact of lower interest rates. Our global footprint enables us to have a unique relationship with our clients. Even the breadth of that relationship, we’re playing a pivotal role in helping our clients navigate through these unprecedented times. We continue to see robust underlying business drivers in TTS, including 24% growth in end-of-period deposits in constant dollars, as well as 6% growth in cross-border flows. And we continue to see that benefit of our investment in technology, given the accelerated adoption of digital tools. In March, while we, as well as most of our clients were working remotely, we opened close to 1,000 accounts digitally, three times the number we opened digitally in March of last year. We’ve also seen a rapid growth in CitiDirect users, up 25% year-over-year in the quarter to over 580,000 users. And within that, active mobile users increased tenfold this year. But as we exited the quarter, we did see the full pressure of the lower rate environment begins to take hold, with revenues down 9% year-over-year in the month of March on a reported basis. Investment Banking revenues of $1.4 billion were largely unchanged from last year, outperforming the market wallet as growth in M&A and equity underwriting were offset by decline in debt underwriting. However, I would note that investment grade debt underwriting was up double-digits year-over-year, as we helped our clients source liquidity in this evolving environment. Private bank revenues of $949 million grew 8%, driven by increased capital markets activity as we supported our clients through turbulent market conditions. In higher lending and deposit volumes, partially offset in lower deposit spreads, reflecting the impact of lower interest rate. Corporate lending revenues of $448 million were down 40%, primarily reflecting an adjustment to the residual value of the lease financing, as well as other marks on the portfolio. And while average loans were roughly flat, we did see a meaningful increase in end-of-period loans this quarter, reflecting the drawdowns and new facilities that I mentioned earlier, as we continue to support our clients. Total markets and Security Services revenues of $6.5 billion increased 37% from last year. Fixed income revenues of $4.8 billion to 39% year-over-year, with growth across rates and currencies and commodities. As volatility, volumes and spreads reached record levels, we actively made markets during this turbulent period for both corporate and investor clients. Equities revenues of $1.2 billion were up 39% versus last year, reflecting a strong performance in derivatives, including an increase in client activity due to higher volatility. And finally in security services, revenues were up 1% on a reported basis and 5% in constant dollars, driven by higher client activity and deposit volume partially offset by lower spread. Total operating expenses of $5.8 billion increased 3% year-over-year as efficiency savings were more than offset by higher compensation costs, continued investments and volume-driven growth. Total credit costs of $2 billion were up significantly from last year, we built roughly $1.9 billion in reserves this quarter. The increase in reserves primarily reflected the impact of changes in the economic outlook, as well as some downgrades along with volume growth in the portfolio. As of quarter end, our funded reserve ratio was 81 basis points, including a funded reserve ratio of roughly 2% on the non-investment grade portion. We provide more details on the corporate portfolio in the appendix to our earnings presentation. Total non-accrual loans increased sequentially this quarter, but the ratio of non-accrual to total corporate loans remained low at 57 basis points. Overall, we feel good about our corporate credit quality and like consumer, we remain vigilant in managing the portfolio and reserve levels relative to the stresses we see out there today. Slide 10 shows the results for corporate/other. Revenues of $73 million declined significantly from last year, reflecting the wind down of legacy asset, the impact of lower rates, as well as marks on legacy securities as spreads widened during the quarter. Expenses were down 24% as the wind down of legacy assets was partially offset by higher infrastructure costs, as well as incremental costs associated with COVID-19, including a special compensation award granted to roughly 75,000 employees who are being most directly impacted by COVID-19. And the pretax loss was $535 million this quarter, higher than our previous outlook, reflecting loan loss reserves on our legacy portfolio, locks on security, the impact of lower rates as well as the special compensation award. Slide 11 shows our net interest revenue and margin trends. In constant dollars, total net interest revenue of $11.5 billion this quarter declined slightly year-over-year as the impact of lower rates was mostly offset by loan growth and an extra day, along with higher trading related NIR. On a sequential basis, net interest revenue declined by roughly $330 million, reflecting the lower rate environment, one fewer day in the quarter and the adjustment in corporate lending that I mentioned earlier. And net interest margin declined 15 basis points sequentially, with lower net interest revenues driving roughly half of the decline and the remainder reflecting growth in the balance sheet. Turning to non-interest revenue, in the first quarter, healthy business performance for most of the quarter as well as a strong pickup in trading activity in March drove a significant increase in non-interest revenue. As we look to the second quarter, we expect both net interest revenues and non-interest revenues to decline, reflecting the full quarter impact of lower rates, as well as a much more pronounced impact from COVID-19. On Slide 12, we show our key capital metrics. During the quarter, our CET 1 capital ratio declined to 11.2% driven mostly by the increase in risk weighted assets. The increase in RWA reflected our support to our customers as well as increased market volatility and widening credit spreads. Our supplementary in leverage ratio was 6%. And our tangible book value per share grew by 9% to $71.52 driven by net income and the reduced share count. In summary, the environment changed dramatically this quarter, but we continue to operate well in a challenging environment. We ended the period with a strong capital liquidity position. We certainly saw the impact of slower global growth and macro uncertainty on our top line results as we exited the quarter. But we feel good about our ability to manage risk through the cycle. We remain disciplined in our target client strategy and feel strongly that our focus on these higher quality, more resilient segments is the right strategy in any economic environment. Looking to the second quarter and the rest of 2020, let me remind you that we are all operating with a great deal of uncertainty today. And our performance will continue to evolve over the coming quarters. With that said, given the adverse impact of COVID-19, we no longer expect to deliver a RoTCE of 12% to 13% for the full year. Based on what we’re seeing today, on the top line, we expect the revenue trend in the latter part of March and the beginning of April characterized by COVID related lower level of activity, particularly in banking, and our consumer franchise, will continue through much of the second quarter. And in our markets business, revenue should reflect the broader industry. The first quarter is typically the strongest quarter, and clearly this year was particularly strong, so we would expect some normalization in activity levels here. And finally, we will see the more pronounced impact of the lower rate environment on the top line. On the expense side, there are couple things that are important to consider as we think about running the franchise and managing our expenses, including the uncertainty of the impact of COVID-19, how do we continue to protect our employees who are on the front line and how do we ensure that we are able to help our customers manage through this. And from this standpoint, we’re being thoughtful about where we need to deploy resources to ensure we can deliver for our customers, in a period where roughly 80% of our workforce is working remotely. Here we feel good about the investments we’ve made over the last few years in technology. These investments are allowing us to manage through this period, and support our customers and clients through digital mean. However, I would also note that during these unprecedented times, we are also exploring all opportunities to operate as efficiently as possible and potentially repay certain investments we would have otherwise made, in order to offset some of the headwinds created by COVID-19. We would also expect to see a natural reduction and some volume related expenses, including T&E, meetings and event calls. So again, there’s a lot of uncertainty today, but we will have more to say on both the top line impact as well as these efficiency efforts in the coming month as the impact of COVID-19 is better understood. But that should hopefully give you a sense of how we’re thinking about the environment and our pre-provision earnings power. Turning to credit. Looking ahead to the second quarter and the remainder of 2020, we do expect a higher level of losses given our current outlook. And as our outlook continues to evolve, it is also reasonable to expect additional increases in credit reserves if our outlook deteriorates further. However, given the credit quality of our portfolio, we remain confident in our ability to maintain our overall strength and stability, as well as continue to support our customers and win new business. Undoubtedly, every company around the world will feel an economic impact from this unprecedented situation. But we are confident that Citi will emerge in a position of strength, having demonstrated that we lived up to our stated objective to be an indisputably strong and stay institution and having shown that we stood by our clients and supported our customers and employees during this very difficult time. With that, Mike and I are happy to take any questions.