Earnings Labs

Citigroup Inc. (C)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Mon, Oct 17, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Citi's Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Review with Chief Executive Officer, Vikram Pandit; and Chief Financial Officer, John Gerspach. The call will be hosted by John Andrews, Head of Citi Investor Relations. [Operator Instructions] Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Mr. Andrews, you may begin.

John Andrews

Analyst

Rachel, thank you. And good morning to everybody, and thank you for joining us today. On the call today our CEO, Vikram Pandit, will speak first. Then, John Gerspach, our CFO, will take you through the earnings presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com. After which, we'd be happy to take your questions. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results and capital and other financial condition may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including the precautionary statements referenced in our discussion today and those included in our SEC filings, including, without limitation, the Risk Factors section of our form -- 2010 Form 10-K. With that out of the way, let me turn it over to Vikram.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

John, thank you, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us today. Earlier today, we announced net income of $3.8 billion or $1.23 per share for the third quarter. When you exclude CVA and focus on our operating results, we earned $2.6 billion or $0.84 per share. These are solid results, particularly in a macro environment in which economic and political uncertainty created a lot of market volatility. As always, we're managing through short-term challenges while steadily executing our long-term strategy. Over the past few years, we have methodically positioned Citi for the trends and opportunities we see in the world. We've built substantial financial strength, de-risked our balance sheet and reoriented our business back to what we do best and what's in Citi's DNA, being a uniquely global bank focused on capital flows and global trade, with a particular focus on the emerging markets. I want to start by focusing on 4 areas: first, our risk as it pertains to Europe, the emerging markets and the U.S. mortgages; second, our decision to move retail partner cards out of Citi Holdings and into Citicorp; third, our financial strength; fourth, I want to provide you some detail on our ongoing efforts to manage expenses; and I will close with a few comments on the economic environment. I believe that Citi's performance during this quarter shows the significant progress we have made in improving our risk management, one of my top priorities when I became CEO. We've completely revamped our risk profile, risk approach and most importantly, our risk culture. We've put in place robust practices in the businesses and regions to integrate risk analysis into decision-making. Today, you have another example of this improved risk management in the update on our European exposure. More than 18 months ago, we recognized…

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Thank you, Vikram, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 2. Citigroup reported third quarter net income of $3.8 billion or $1.23 per diluted share. This quarter's results included significant CVA of $1.9 billion, driven by Citi's credit spreads widening. Excluding CVA, earnings were $2.6 billion or $0.84 per share in the third quarter. Revenues of $20.8 billion were roughly flat versus the prior year on a reported basis. Excluding CVA from both periods, revenues were down 8%, as continued strong growth in international consumer banking and Transaction Services was more than offset by lower revenues in Citi Holdings, Securities and Banking, and North America Consumer Banking. Expenses of $12.5 billion were up 8% year-over-year and down 4% from last quarter. Year-over-year, roughly 3 quarters of the increase was driven by the impact of foreign exchange, higher legal and related costs and the absence of one-time benefits in the prior period. Excluding these items, operating expenses grew 2% year-over-year in the third quarter, driven by higher investments, partially offset by productivity savings and other expense reductions. I'll discuss year-to-date expenses in more detail later. Cost of credit continued to improve year-over-year, down 43% to $3.4 billion. Sequentially, end of period loans declined 2% for Citigroup. However, reported loans included a net negative impact from foreign exchange in the third quarter. On a constant dollar basis, total Citigroup loans were up 1% sequentially, as loan growth in Citicorp more than offset the decline in Citi Holdings. On Slide 3, we highlight significant items affecting the third quarter and comparable periods. As I mentioned earlier, CVA was a significant factor this quarter, at $1.9 billion pretax compared to $164 million in the second quarter and $115 million in the third quarter of last year. The $1.9 billion of CVA this quarter included…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Glenn Schorr with Nomura.

Glenn Schorr - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

Curious, John, your comments on reshaping the investment bank for the opportunities that you see, obviously, in a tougher revenue environment now. But expenses have been elevated there. I'm just curious. What drives the decision, meaning, if you go there and you shrink a little? Is it Basel III? Is it Volcker's? Is it the derivatives rules? What are the main drivers that's going to bring rethinking on the IB or Securities and Banking?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

Glenn, let me answer that. It's a Vikram. And I think, yes, it's all of the above. You've got to start right there, which is Basel III, Volcker are definitely going to have an impact on the kind of business you're in, the credit business like securitization, some of the derivatives business. Those that are non-clearinghouse, counterparty business are going to be affected by that. You've got to scale for that. That's important. On the other hand, the expenses are going to be higher because if you want to be in clearinghouses, you got to make sure the systems are set up. So on one hand, you reduce the business. On the other hand, on a getting-ready-for-it basis, the expenses are higher. And none of us truly know where the Volcker rules are going to come out. They are going to have an impact. We need to watch that, but in our own case, as I'm sure elsewhere, we've been getting ready for that, making sure that we can comply with the definitions of proprietary trading and other activities. So those are clearly the cases. The bigger issue is whether we all are going to see a secular change in the level of activity in those businesses. You and I know that's really hard to predict, and we all are living in an environment where the interest rates are 2%. And on the other hand, we're expecting some of these businesses to return some very good rates of return. Now how that all squares, we're going to have to see. And that's probably the most uncertain part. The part that we're more certain about is that capital markets activities, albeit slowly and albeit in a smaller volume to date are moving to the emerging markets. It's the emerging market companies that are doing the IPOs. It's the emerging market companies that are going to need issuance of debt and all of the M&A that goes with that, and that's one of those businesses that we are investing against as a company. So you can see it sort of a picture with a lot of factors that are changing, which means that you got to be right on top of the business, making sure you're sizing the business correctly and optimizing it to where we think activity is going to come from and taking some guesses as to what the secular level of activity is going to be.

Glenn Schorr - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

I appreciate that. Related matter, but a little different is, you had a lot of time to prepare for it, but can you talk about any direct impact you've seen on the downgrade to P2 by Moody's?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Glenn, so far we really haven't seen much of an impact, to be honest with you.

Glenn Schorr - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

Good to hear. So counter parties are hanging in, and trading partners have no issues?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

No, I mean, we've gotten so far what we expect. We know that there are some counterparties that by their charter can't do business with anybody who's less than a P1. And so that went away, and that's what we had expected to happen. And as you noted, it's something that we've been preparing for that possibility for some time. We've already got commercial paper even as of the second quarter. It was down to like $9 billion. I think we're like $6 billion or $7 billion right now. And that's -- we may dip a little bit more than that, but it's just not going to have that big of an impact. At least, it hasn't had that big of an impact on us as yet.

Glenn Schorr - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst

I appreciate that, and maybe one last one. Just curious. The LCI jumped from $12 billion to $17 billion. I know spreads widened out a lot, but rates came down. Just curious if you can give us a little color behind the scenes.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes, that's basically all due to currency translation adjustment, FAS 52 impacts.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John McDonald with Sanford Bernstein. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: John, just following up on Glenn's last question there. So the FX currency translation did affect the growth in tangible book value this quarter, I guess, and also the Tier 1 ratio, as well?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Well, it has less of an impact on the Tier 1 ratio because we hedge to our Tier 1 ratio. So it does have an impact from a tangible book point of view. You've got the impact on both the capital accounts, but also don't forget you've got an impact on goodwill and intangibles as well. So that all sort of nets down to, I think, about a $3.5 billion impact on tangible book value. But from a Tier 1 ratio point of view, it doesn't impact our ratio because of the way that we hedge it out. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay, got you. Second question, the net interest margin and net interest income held in pretty well for you guys, okay, albeit a tough interest rate environment. What's your outlook for the NII and the NIM if we continue to model through a low growth environment here with low interest rates?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

NIM was up, I guess, 1 basis point this quarter, and obviously, there's a lots of ins and outs that go into NIM. I tend to -- I think you should focus on 2, let's say, 2 broad categories. One, movements in our loan portfolio. Again, as we've mentioned before, if Citi Holdings continues to shrink, some of our higher yielding loans are running off, and that NIM pressure is only somewhat offset by growth in the Citicorp loan portfolio. Especially as in a low interest rate environment and our strategy to lower the risk profile in our portfolios, we bring on new loans at lower rates. And if you think about the impact of Citi Holdings' higher yielding loans rolling off and lower yielding loans coming on, that was about a net hit to NIM of 3 basis points. So the second impact is our continued roll-off of long-term debt in the absence, this quarter, of certain borrowing costs that we had in the second quarter in our trading business associated with some rather specific client strategies. And as those client positions rolled off in the third quarter, so did those associated borrowing costs. So the second factor, the cost of the LTV and this higher financing costs rolling off, added about 4 basis points to our NIM. And so those 2 things sort of net out to the 1 basis point. So you asked about looking forward. Looking forward, absent some significant portfolio sale coming out of Holdings, our NIM is going to continue to reflect the pressure of a low interest rate environment and subsequent changes in our portfolio, and it's likely to come down by a couple of basis points each quarter. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. And other banks retiring TruPS given that you have lots of capital on almost all metrics. I know presumably, you have high interest expense. Would you start to think about that as a strategy retiring the TruPS as well?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes, that's something that we will continue to look at. There are some TruPS that we can call now, but our higher yielding TruPS require a regulatory event in order for us to put out a call provision on it. And so we're waiting to see when that regulatory event may occur. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. The last thing, just a clarification on your Basel III goals to be at 8% to 9% by the end of next year. Just to clarify, that's on a fully loaded basis. Is that correct?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. So that assumes all the numerator deductions that don't even start technically until 2014. Right? That those all hit immediately?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

That's on a fully phased in set of rules, yes. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: So do you have an idea on an as-reported basis, what kind of Basel III number you may expect to be actually reporting on January 1, 2013?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

No, I'm not going to forecast our Basel III ratios. John E. McDonald - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. But it would be higher than the 8% to 9% obviously, correct?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

As I said Glenn (sic) [John], we expect to be between 8% and 9%.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

James F. Mitchell - Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

A quick question on -- follow-up on John's question on the Tier 1 common. The Tier 1 common dollars, it looks like it was basically flattish, I guess, when we look at risk-weighted assets. Just trying to figure out if there was not much of an impact from the FX translation. What kept it flat in the quarter?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

The biggest impact, I mentioned the fact that the way we hedge. If you take a look at our risk-weighted assets on an x FX basis, our risk-weighted assets actually grew about $20 billion more than you would have expected just from a decline or just from an impact of the appreciating dollar. So if nothing else had changed, you would have expected our risk-weighted assets to have dropped by about $30 billion this quarter. And in fact, they only dropped by about $11 billion. So we had growth on our risk-weighted assets. And that comes from 3 basic factors. About 1/3 of that increase comes from loan growth, again, x FX. Risk-weighted assets associated with loans grew by about $7 billion in the quarter. Another $6 billion or $7 billion was risk-weighted asset growth in our trading book, that was driven by factoring in market volatility into the various models. And then the other 1/3 was a combination of repositioning some of our AFS securities and some of our reverses out of 0 risk-weighted assets into 20% or 50% risk-weighted assets. So those 3 factors kind of add up to the $20 billion worth of risk-weighted asset growth. And if you think about it, each -- as I think we put in the Q, each $10 billion of risk-weighted asset growth impacts our Tier 1 ratio by about 12 basis points. So that $20 billion generally would be somewhere around 24 basis points and I think the way the roundings work, you probably get an extra 3/10 increase in our published Tier 1 ratio.

James F. Mitchell - Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Okay. All right, I got that. And then maybe a follow-up on the expenses in the investment bank. If we look at year-to-date, clearly because of the tough environment, I think revenues are down x the DVA about 17%, but expenses are up 3%. Do you think that there's some more of -- you're sort of kind of guiding to flat expenses sequentially. But is there some room there if revenues were to remain weak to cut compensation at the end of the year?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Let me say that we are focused on making sure expenses are in line with our performance, and frankly, compensation should be in line with performance, too. And it's too soon to talk about it, about the fourth quarter now, but we'll certainly have that in our mind next quarter.

James F. Mitchell - Buckingham Research Group, Inc.

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Okay. Fair enough. And one last question on the collateral. That's not netted in your disclosures. What's in there? Is it not just AAA collateral? What's the makeup of that type of collateral?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Buckingham Research.

Yes. No, those would be assets that we've got pledged, but we don't necessarily have sitting in bankruptcy remote vehicles where we have physical possessions of, so we have to go and get it. All right?

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

A couple of questions. One on the retail partner card, I think this is something that the market had been hoping for, for a while. Could you just give us a sense as to why now and was there any regulatory approvals that were required for this?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I think why now is really an answer to taking stock of what we've done to change the business, which is we shrunk the portfolio, improved the credit quality, and it's fully funded by our deposit base. Why now is also a result of understanding all the changes that came out of the CARD Act, and I think that one of the biggest changes coming out of the CARD Act is that bank open lines on branded cards had been rationalized, total amount of credit outstanding has been rationalized and that retail credit at point of sale is an important source of financing for people who are buying large items, such as those that are private label partners' supply. And so basically, consumer behavior has changed, and we think that this form of white label or private label credit is going to be important part of what drives consumer sales, and our corporate customers are asking for that service from us as well. So strategically, we're in a different place than we were before. And lastly, we have stress tested that portfolio on a risk basis and looked at our liquidity profile that we're carrying, and looked at sort of the credit requirements in the U.S. marketplace. And we generally feel that it is, therefore, what we do as our core strategy at Citi, and that's why we've moved it over. Obviously, we always have conversations with regulators about everything we do, but this was our decision.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And when you say, corporate customers have been asking you for this, does this mean vendor financing or does it mean incrementally more investment in incremental private label card?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

It's not vendor financing. It really is -- I mean, we launched the Google Wallet as an example. They're a lots of different aspects of -- we think the credit card and the credit basis, which are not going to be necessarily where banks own the last mile. It may turn out that the last mile customer is a customer of somebody else. And that somebody else is our corporate customer, and they would like to have the kind of card service and/or the financing services to help them, of course, on a risk-controlled and a quality-controlled basis that we will be on top of. But that's what I mean by saying that -- I guess, you talked about private label, that is the kind of service we see having much more demand going forward.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

And on RWAs, you assess them the same whether they're in Citicorp or Citi Holdings. Is that right?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

There may be some differences in terms of -- depending on the clientele and how it's done. But by and large, we are okay with both risk-weighted assets on both sides, branded and this side. And we're happy with the rates of return we can earn for you on both of those business, and that was part of the decision-making as well.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay. And then lastly on capital ratios. You indicated that 8% to 9% all in common Tier 1 by year-end '12. We've got some conversation coming out of the Europeans that they are looking for their rates to get to 9% sometime in the middle of next year. Does that at all weigh into your thinking into what you're planning for by year-end '12?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I would say, first of all, I don't really know exactly what the regulators are going to do in Europe nor do I necessarily know the measures are built on what. And so it's not clearly one of the biggest issues we've had, which is what we've been arguing for, is a level playing field. Let's get to apples and apples. So I don't know what those numbers are. But our plans are our plans. We're going to get to 8% to 9% of Basel III by the end of next year. And these are the plans we've been talking about for a while, and we think they're the right ones for us and our shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ed Najarian with ISI Group.

Ed Najarian - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI Group.

Just one quick question. I guess when JPMorgan reported earnings, they were much more conservative about loan loss reserve recapture given their outlook. You're still recapturing some reserves, obviously less than in prior quarters but have given a pretty muted outlook obviously especially for the North American mortgage and home equity market, I'm just wondering how you're thinking about reserve recapture and maybe how you're thinking about it in terms of both corp and Holdings going forward.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · ISI Group.

I think when you look at where we've been releasing reserves recently, it's primarily been in our 2 U.S. cards portfolios. And don't forget, we were among the last of the institutions to actually begin reserve releases, and because, quite frankly, we were one of the last to actually reprice the portfolio and then see the impact from all of that flow through our books, when you take a look at the 2 branded -- at the 2 portfolios, both branded cards and retail partner cards, which we show you on that slide in the investor deck, we're continuing to see improved performance both on an NCL and a delinquency basis, and we'll be guided by that as we consider reserve actions in the future. I'd say that we are very comfortable with our existing LLR ratio of 5.1%.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · ISI Group.

I don't know what conservative means in any case. Everybody has to be reserved fairly, and we are very cognizant of the environment we are headed into as we've been for a long time when we were one of the only ones that talked about housing prices going down for a long time here. And so we get it.

Ed Najarian - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI Group.

So we could potentially see more of that sort of your view now as a good chance that most of that will come from card to the extent that we do see more?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · ISI Group.

To the extent that we've got reserve releases in the future, it is most likely to be much more heavily weighted towards those 2 cards portfolios.

Ed Najarian - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · ISI Group.

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up, and I'm guessing this one's going to be a challenge to answer. But you highlight that you want to return capital in 2012. I know you haven't tried to quantify that amount other than saying you want to finish the year at that 8% to 9% level on Basel III Tier 1. But as we think about the trade-off next year on whatever amount of capital you do end up returning between buybacks and dividends. On the one hand, I'm guessing you want to raise the dividend and establish sort of start to the payout ratio or to a better payout ratio. But on the other hand, you might have a very great opportunity to be buying back a fairly significant amount of stock at a big discount to tangible book. So I'm just wondering how you're balancing that trade-off in your head right now.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst · ISI Group.

That's a very valid question for a stock that's trading below tangible book value right now. I mean, by buying back stock, if that's the way we decide the return of capital, we'll be helping our long-term shareholders in 2 ways: one, by reducing stock count; and two, by accreting their book value per share by doing that. That's a very powerful way to create value for your long-term shareholders. And certainly, we're going to take that into account as we think about this. I think that's particularly true as we look beyond 2012, when we look at all the DTA monetization and all that capital that's released by the wind down of Holdings, as we look to that, we'll be very cognizant of where the stock is trading on a price-to-book-value basis and make decisions accordingly. So your point is valid. That point is not lost on us. And when we get closer to making the decisions, we'll have a much more informed perspective.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Actually, a few things. One is a follow-up to Betsy's question about if European banks need to get to this 9% by mid-next year. I think that's under Basel 2.5, which you guys and the other U.S. banks aren't on. But I don't know if that's a metric that you track internally and care to share with us.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

We're focused on Basel I, which is what we report on now and Basel III, which presumably is where the U.S. will go in the future.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Then I think the way the calculations work for the 2.5, I mean, your hypothetical ratio would probably be somewhere between the 11.7 under Basel I and then whatever the Basel III is. It's supposed to be higher than the Basel III but less than the 11.7.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

I don't know what to say, Matt. The math may work out that way, but we don't have a comment on that.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Separately, as you think about the long-term debt footprint for the company, there is a lot that you've talked about running off. Is there some sort of target that you would think about long term?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Well, what we've said, Matt, is very specifically that what we intend to do is to allow all the TLGP debt to run off. We don't intend to refinance any portion of that, and we haven't to date. So as the TLGP debt runs off, that's been reducing our levels of long-term debt.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly on the expenses, which all the extra details are helpful. As we think about kind of a clean run rate of about 3% or 2.8% to be exact, is that a decent run rate to use going forward beyond the fourth quarter?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

I'll have more to say about 2012 when we do the earnings release after the end of the fourth quarter.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Any early preview though directionally? I mean, it sounds like you're preparing for a tougher revenue environment, which a lot of us think is the right thing to do. So if there's some things that you can't control. But the underlying expense growth, it does seem like you're more and more focused on that.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes, I'd say that we're -- I mean, I think we see the same operating environment that you do. And so we will be prepared accordingly.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think there's no question we believe rates in the U.S. and the developed markets are going to be low for a very long period of time, which is why we've been making sure that the emerging markets businesses are growing in a very credit controlled way. That's the delta, we think, and we've been methodically going after it.

Matthew O'Connor - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Actually if I could just squeeze in a last one here. On the deposits, you had very strong growth in U.S. noninterest income, which is obviously the most profitable stuff. Where is that coming from? And the non-U.S. was down, which I don't know if that's FX or what was driving that?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Most of the impact on the international deposits, was driven by changes just in the FX rates. And from a domestic point of view, we had a lot of good deposit growth in Transaction Services. And so again, that's a growing part of our business.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer & Co. Christoph M. Kotowski - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: I wanted to go into your comments that you'd expect mortgage delinquencies to trend back up again. Is that due to some significant degree because of the weaker economic data points that we've been seeing for the last 3, 5 months? Or is it just that the modified loans are hitting the windows where they would re-default even in a stable economic environment?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Chris, it's a combination of both. I'd say right now, it's probably a little bit more heavily weighted to the re-defaults of the modified than it is the economic point. But they both certainly factor into our view of how this might develop out into the future. Christoph M. Kotowski - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division: Okay. And then on the trading results and environment, is it safe to say that, like, heavy damage was done during the month of August, but that September and July were -- just maybe slack activity, but that there were positioning losses as credit spreads blew out that may not be there unless that reoccurs?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

I would say that August was a particularly volatile month between the U.S. debt ceiling whatever and the ongoing euro. But throughout the quarter, spreads certainly widened, that happened as well in September. So I'd say it was just an all-around difficult quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: A couple of questions. Firstly, what was the amount of hedge gains, John, included in your lending line, which run up from $300 million to $500 million roughly?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes. We never break out the hedge gains specifically, and that's not a number I've really got at my fingertips. Maybe if you call the IR group, they can get it for you. But it's probably something -- I'm going to say something in the order of, like, $0.5 billion. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then the SAP assets, there weren't any negative amounts despite spreads widening out. Were those offset by hedges? Or was it something else?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

We did have some negative marks. Maybe it doesn't show up quite in the... Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Yes, the net number we obviously can't see it, so that's why, it doesn't matter...

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

There were some ups and downs. Actually, we had in one of the SAP asset breakouts back on Page 41, you get a little bit of flavor, a little bit more detail as to what went on in the various components of the mark-to-market book. And the single biggest contributor was our derivatives positions in the SAP. And that's just we have some hedges on there, which were just swaps from -- swapping out from pay fixed to floating, hedging some other positions we had. So we've got some gains on those. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay, yes. Well, that's what drove my comment about whether you had some hedge gains. And on that same page, equity assets are down pretty sharply. Any thing in particular going on?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Not that I know, no. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Because they went down by almost 1/3.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

I'm pretty sure we had an asset sale in there for equities, a small asset sale. So we had a sale of some private equity assets, and I just don't have the detail of that with me right now. But that and then there were obviously marks that we took. But that's what really drove that. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And on the topic of sale, did you sell any MSRs this quarter in holdings?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

No, no, no. We had no sale of MSR this quarter. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. The value of that came down pretty sharply, too.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes, with interest rates. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Retail partner cards, a question for you, Vikram, which is, now that it's back in Citicorp, strategically, will you think about shifting focus and growing it and adding more partners? Or what's the plan on that one?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

I think we do plan to manage it as a real core operating businesses, which means that if there are growth opportunities, then we're going to consider them carefully. I think you understand that the -- Vivek, you know this, the nature of the branded card business given Basel III requirements and open lines and the amount of competitiveness in there suggest that while there are opportunities that the private label business is one where there could be some good opportunities, particularly, as I said, customer behavior is moving towards maintaining the credit line availability on the branded cards and using the point-of-sale private label card as a way to finance their incremental large purchases. And that's a point that's not lost on our corporate clients as well. And we'll be just very, very thoughtful about where and how to make those investments. But certainly, the credit availability in the U.S., in aggregate, has come down a lot, which creates opportunity. Vivek Juneja - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And on the same -- similar theme of growth, you've got the European banks that are thinking about divestitures, especially in the U.S., but also outside. What's your appetite for that in terms of using your capital for any of those?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

First of all, it's -- let me step back a little bit. I think the amount and the quality and the prospects of the deleveraging are still uncertain from what I understand. They're much more dollar-based than euro-based. So the question becomes, what are the dollar-based assets, and what do you want to do with them? And the reality for us is, really, we'd rather use our capital towards those businesses and those areas that create a long-term earnings profile versus having a mark-to-market gain on a shorter-term investment. Although if there are opportunities that come up, we'll look at it. But I don't think you should expect us to be a preferred bid for the large amount of assets they may sell.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Moshe Orenbuch with Credit Suisse. Moshe Orenbuch - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I'm trying to remember back to the beginning of the call, I think you had -- you put some metrics out for the quality of the private label book, and from what I recall, a 7.5% loss rate seems kind of high. Do you think that cycle's down to a particular level? And do you have a normalized level? Kind of coupled with that, it was alluded in an earlier question, but there's been a fair amount of portfolios trading hands in that area. Would that be in something in which you would think about actually acquiring portfolios now that this is back in Citicorp? And I've got a follow-up.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

Well, I think the base strategy is still one of organically growing with our clients and particularly our corporate clients and the existing private label partner, card partners, that we have in that business. There are occasionally portfolios that come up. We'll take a look at them, and it has to be compelling within wanting to have that portfolio for that quality of credit card clients, that quality of customer and that particular corporate client as well. So we'll look at them, but our driving strategy is going to be to grow organically with where we think credit is necessary.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

And Moshe, to get back to your focus on the NCL rate, as we said earlier, the NCL rate, and which you quoted, it's like 7.5% for this quarter. That was down 166 basis points from the prior quarter, and we think that business kind of operates more in the 6% to 6.5% range over time. So we think we still have some room to run in improvement. Moshe Orenbuch - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And just a comment, a separate topic. That Page 20, which I thought was really good disclosure on breaking down your investments a little more. I mean, is the primary driver the revenue generating investments actually delivering or some of the other things getting decreased in terms of what you've laid out in terms of getting to positive operating leverage by kind of division or geography that you have spoken about before?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

We're on track to deliver. I'm not going to say on every single investment. I mean, obviously, you've got a couple that are probably not doing exactly what you wanted to. But overall, our revenue investments, we're seeing results, and I think you're starting to see the results, certainly, as you look at what we're achieving in Asia and in Latin America. The revenue growth we're getting out of GTS, I mean, there's a lot of new client mandates there. So I think we're doing pretty well as far as getting the results that we want out of those investments.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

And if you look at the table that John put up, a lot of those investments are against our retail businesses internationally, retail businesses, GTS businesses, all of which are predictable -- more predictable, I should say, in terms of when you invest and what could come out of that. And so we also make sure the investment skew is towards those businesses that we think give us a good rate of return. Moshe Orenbuch - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: You had mentioned the North American consumer would be kind of later next year. How much of that $1.9 billion is being targeted there? Any sense proportionally?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

I can't give you the exact number off the top of my head, Moshe. We can get that for you as far as rough like... Moshe Orenbuch - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I mean, we're certainly seeing some initiatives just kind of in the media and the like.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Goldberg with Barclays Capital.

Jason M. Goldberg - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

You mentioned a lot of the decline in equities trading was tied to unwinding of principal strategy positions. Can we just talk to where you are in that process, how much more to go? And are those kind of realized or unrealized losses we saw?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Yes, Jason. I'd say we're close to 2/3 done winding down that particular position, that business. So that's kind of where we are.

Jason M. Goldberg - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Okay. And then secondly, I guess, CVA caused a lot variability in the quarter. I know you kind of give us the numbers to back it out. But how should we just think about that going forward? Is it simply -- as spreads come back in, that will go from a gain to a loss? Or are there ways do you kind of manage that, plot that in or is that not something you're really focused on?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Barclays Capital.

Well, we focus on it a lot. But there's little -- when it comes to your bond spreads, I can't hedge that, so I can't hedge my own spreads. So as the spreads widen, you get this ridiculous thing where we book revenue on our fair value option debt. And then as our expense -- as our spreads contract, we'll end up taking revenue off the table.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Ron Mandle with GIC.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

I have 2 questions. On the capital ratio question before, John, you gave a good rundown of the denominator, but I was wondering about the numerator. And it would have -- it seemed that the amount of the actual dollar amount of Tier 1 common didn't grow during the quarter. I was wondering if you could comment on that.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Well, again, the absolute dollar amount of capital is going to be impacted by the FX impact on the capital. Like I said, what we do, Ron, is we hedge the ratio. We don't hedge the nominal dollar value of the capital.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

Okay. So you hedge the ratio, so you hedge the denominator, which you spoke about.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

We hedged...

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

And then so you also hedged the numerator, and so that was -- with the denominator. So that was a negative also? If the denominator didn't go down as much as it should have, then the numerator didn't either?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

If we hadn't have grown the $20 billion in risk-weighted assets on the x FX basis, then our risk-weighted assets would have been about $20 billion lower and our Tier 1 ratio would have been about 24 basis points higher than it otherwise would have.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

And in terms of the capital line, that shows up in the AOCI that you referred to before?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Correct.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

Okay. And so if FX is stable in the fourth quarter, then what should we expect? Would there be a reversal of these items?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Well, if it's stable, then nothing would change. So then, you would have no impact on either your nominal value of Tier 1 capital or your Tier 1 ratio. And it would just change based upon all your normal factors.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

Okay. And then related to that, in the second quarter slide deck, you had the table that showed how you were leveraging the net income with DTA utilization and the 10% to 15% threshold impact. So presumably there was no benefit of that this quarter?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

We actually utilized about $200 million of the DTA.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

Okay. And also, on the CVA, you divided it into 2 pieces. You said you had a gain on derivatives. Is that on the -- with your spreads widening, the counterparty spread is also widening, but you actually had it so well hedged, you had a gain?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

That's correct.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

Nice work. And then one last question on a separate topic. When you were talking about the international retail, International Consumer Banking, you said that some of the growth was partially offset by spread compression on a year-on-year basis, but you added that the spread compression seems to be abating. I was wondering if you could expand on that and what that might mean for your net interest margin going forward.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Well, that's kind of factored into some of the -- it was an earlier question, I can't remember if it was Glenn or whomever had asked about it or John who asked about NIM, and that factors into there, Ron. We are continuing to obviously grow loans in Asia. We still see those loans coming on at lower rates than they had been growing in the past. But now we've been living in a low interest rate environment for the better part of a year, and so you're starting to lap that effect. And so the real downward pressure from that low interest rate environment on your growth is starting to abate. And over time, as you learn to live in a low interest rate environment, it kind of -- it leaves you where you are. I think what we all would like to see is an environment where we've got some increases in interest rates, and that will help to grow our revenues, we think, at a faster rate.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

But it sounds in a way like what you're saying that the pressure in the U.S. will be offset to some extent by the abating of the pressure internationally.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Well, the abating comment that I made earlier, I think, was really on the international portfolio. And so as we look at our regional businesses, there we see an abating effect of a low interest rate environment. Given how the U.S. rates have come down rather dramatically just over the last several months, I don't think that I would use the abate word in relation to U.S. interest rates as yet.

Ron Mandle - GIC

Analyst · GIC.

And then I was just saying that the combination -- what you're saying about the combination helps to offset to some extent the U.S. pressure?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · GIC.

Yes. Our international growth certainly helps to offset the impact of a low rate environment in the U.S.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Todd Hagerman with Sterne Agee. Todd L. Hagerman - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: A couple of questions. First, just off in terms of capital. Vikram, you've been pretty confident in terms of your outlook on the capital redeployment, commenting about planning to return a fair amount of capital to shareholders in the next couple of years. But yet, in the course of the call today, we've talked about some of the volatility within your Tier 1 common ratio. You had less DTA utilization this quarter than, I think, you had the last couple of quarters. Could you just talk, first, just in terms of your conviction on that outlook and kind of, again, what gives you that confidence in terms of returning that shareholders in face of some your peers being a little bit more cautious, particularly as they think about the uncertainty with B3?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

We've been uncertain about B3 for a while. This was -- we were very early on in talking about. It makes no sense to talk about where you are or what the calibration is because those details were still being done. And so we've been very cautious of giving you guidance that we believed in on where we're going. So maybe there are others who see the same caution that we saw earlier, and that's fine. The path that we have put ourselves on takes into account the kind of performance we've had this quarter, the last quarter and what we expect to be our continuing performance over the next few quarters as well. We also are incorporating the fact that we'll get some more clarity on some of the calibration that's out there, still uncertain on B3. But given all of that, we are still of the view that we will be at 8% to 9% on Basel III by the end of next year. And we're still of the point of view that we ought to be able to start returning capital, subject to regulatory approval, next year. There are others who started this year, and we were also very cautious of making sure that we paced ourselves as far as that was concerned, when we were asked why not do it this year. And I think, again, that was also part of the same sort of longer-term planning. So what I would say to you is that the Basel III set of rules and calibrations are, not without doubt, they're not clear yet. But taking all of that into account, we're still of the point of view we're going to hit our Basel III numbers by the end of next year, and we're still of the point of view we can do that, as well as return capital next year. And those are the conversations we've been having with our regulators. Todd L. Hagerman - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: Okay. And if I could tie in just in terms of your outlook on holdings. I think, again, you referenced to the notion that you may or expect to be below kind of a 10% threshold. And I think you characterized it in the near term, if you will. How should we think about the relative mortgage exposure within holdings, your cautious outlook there? You did sell a small amount of credit this quarter. But again, I think in quarters past, you talked about a slower runoff as it relates to holdings. And now it seems that perhaps your -- the outlook has changed in terms of the contribution, the relative size. How should we think about that going forward and your comments on mortgage and partner cards specifically?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

Yes. Our prior perspective still stand in terms of what we mentioned to you and where we are. You know the schedule. We've got, today, a Local Consumer Lending book of $217 billion. That includes, by the way, the partner cards, $44 billion approximately at the end of the third quarter. And you know where we are with the Brokerage and Asset Management, especially the JV with Morgan Stanley. You know we're with our SAP pool of $45 billion or so. I think the way to think about this is consistent with what we said earlier. There are possibilities of sales in this portfolio that continue, particularly those that we think will reduce our severity risk. We'll continue to examine those. But certain portfolios like mortgages are going to have to mature over time. So none of that perspective really has changed, except that if you move over the partner card business, we're approximately about $250 billion on a pro forma basis, and all I said earlier was that we believe we are on track to get below 10% in due course of time, and that's a good number to have, the Citi Holdings to be below 10% of our total assets. By the way, everybody has some of these, if not most of these assets. We just have -- call them Citi Holdings. Others have them in their core portfolios. And to have this number be less than 10% tells you a little bit about how de-risked we are as a business, and that's why that goal is important to us.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

But we're going to continue to approach everything in Citi Holdings from an economically rational fashion. We're not going to rush just to get down to below 10%. Todd L. Hagerman - Sterne Agee & Leach Inc., Research Division: I can appreciate that, John. Just, again, the concern being the relative mortgage exposure, your cautious comments there and whether or not...

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

From a relative mortgage exposure, I kind of like our position.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

I want to be very clear. I don't think John was talking about something specific to us. We're talking about macro issues out here. Okay? These are issues having to do with joblessness out there, having to do with the fact that unemployment is not ticking down. And so these are macro issues surrounding mortgages. In that kind of environment, you'd rather have this portfolio than many others.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Mayo with CLSA. Michael Mayo - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division: Yes, my first question is on the movement of the retail partner cards business from Citi Holdings to Citicorp, and you said in the press release that it's due to current credit trends, at least that's one of the reasons. Yet, isn't the movement -- isn't Citicorp more about strategic placement as opposed to current happenings?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

Yes. I mean, we wouldn't have moved it unless we went through, Mike, a very thoughtful, strategic view as to what was happening to credit in the U.S. and the customer base in the U.S. and what's happening to funding and all of that. And the fact is that there is a closer relation between the private label card business and customers being able to get credit today than prior to the CARD Act being passed and prior to Basel III rules. And so it was on the basis of all of that. We also see a trend, by the way, where it's going to be quite likely that not all banks are going to be able to own the last mile in terms of the customer. And therefore, having these capabilities to serve our corporate clients customers are an important part of the services we have to offer them as well. So it was in relation to that. It was in relation to the fact that we're going to manage that portfolio as tightly as we are managing today in terms of making sure it's high credit quality. And so this was not based on any one quarter or any one month in terms of assessment. It was based on what we think it means to us longer term, and what it's going to contribute to our earnings base, for you, on a long-term basis. Michael Mayo - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division: I've got a second question. Asia has had some noise recently in terms of growth expectations. And your Asian consumer loans, the average loans, grew 17% year-over-year. Are you thinking about potentially slowing the pace of growth or being more cautious?

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

We do not target a growth rate. We target a clientele that we believe we can help and a lot depends upon what our clients need. And that, too, our clientele in some of these markets is different than some of the local banks might have or who much more penetration. They are much more mass-market than we are. So there are a couple of factors that are going to drive our loan growth. One is obviously the absolute growth rate in these economies, they will have an impact. But the second part is, that our bank in these countries serves a kind of clientele, which is still growing, and we are still underpenetrated in terms of serving some of these clients that we may have a structural growth rate that may turn out to be different than the broader GDP growth rate of other countries. That's what's going to drive our growth. But it is not driven by saying we need to make an x amount of target in terms of loan growth. It's based on serving our clients and the credit quality we're comfortable with.

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

And Mike, don't forget the numbers that you're looking at, obviously, the as-reported, if you go to the back of the investor deck, we've given you all of the drivers on a constant-dollar basis. And if you go to Page 43 of the investor deck, you'll see that on a constant dollar basis, our loan growth in Asia is much lower than that 17% that you're quoting. On a constant-dollar basis, our card loans grow about -- this is end of period loans. They grew by about 5%, and the retail banking loans are growing about 12%. Michael Mayo - Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Research Division: And then my last question is on expenses. I know you've touched on that a lot. Slide 19 breaks out your expenses pretty clearly, saying it's up $2 billion or so on a core basis. And I guess your revenues on a core basis year-to-date might be down $3 billion to $4 billion, just taking the managed revenues on Slide 5, down $2 billion and Slide 45, the FX impact that helped you by $1.4 billion. So core revenues year-to-date, down $3.5 billion; core expenses, up $2 billion year-to-date, so $5.5 billion gap. And as you highlighted on Slide 20, maybe half of that is due to investment spending. What's the reason for the rest of that gap between core revenue and core expense growth?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst

Mike, as we said, we are investing in the businesses. And I think we've given you a path towards where we get most of the businesses to positive operating leverage. When you're in an investment mode, you're going to have things like that, and obviously, the biggest variability is in the Securities and Banking business. And as Vikram said earlier, that's one where I think the entire market now is still searching to see what the new secular normal is. But if you think about all of our other businesses, we've got Asia now. Asia RCB is a positive operating leverage, so revenue growth in; excess of expense growth, and that's the way we'll continue to operate that business. Latin America hits in the fourth quarter. We'll hit GTS on that basis either the second or the third quarter of next year and then North America Regional Consumer Banking towards the end of next year. So we're investing to grow revenues, and we're going to be delivering that revenue growth over the course of the next year or so.

Vikram S. Pandit

Analyst

And the revenues have been obviously impacted by the carry-on impact of the CARD Act, as well as FDIC assessments, things of that sort. So there are lots of items that affected the revenue line. But the most important thing to us is these investments are occurring, as John Gerspach said, against those opportunities that we think create good earnings for our shareholders on a long-term basis.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Holton with Boston Company.

Michael Holton - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Boston Company.

Two quick ones. On your PIIGS exposure, what was the net P&L impact this quarter?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Boston Company.

I'm sorry, I can't answer that. I just don't know.

Michael Holton - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Boston Company.

Okay. I mean, given spreads blew out, it would seem like given your hedges on it, it probably was a positive. But that's a guess and I'm...

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Boston Company.

Sorry.

Michael Holton - Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Boston Company.

Okay and then just a second thing, you guys made a lot about -- a lot of statements and I think you properly hedged yourself by saying, "Hey, assuming the economy does not deteriorate from kind of current levels." Just to get a sense for kind of the economic indicators you're using in your head, are you kind of assuming U.S. growing 2% plus or minus GDP and Europe kind of bounces along the bottom?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Boston Company.

That would be pretty fair. That would be pretty fair.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Adam Hurwich with Ulysses Management.

Adam G. Hurwich - Ulysses Management LLC

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

A question regarding the credit card business. Given your macroeconomic outlook and given how you've managed lines of credit in the credit card business both in the U.S. and abroad, could you see maximum losses in your scenario not reaching where losses were prior to the card cycle?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

You were breaking up a little bit as you were speaking. And so I'm not quite sure I caught the gist of it. It was something about national loss rates?

Adam G. Hurwich - Ulysses Management LLC

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

No. Given the way you've managed the lines of credit in the credit card business, both in the U.S. and abroad, could you see loss rates in those businesses not reaching prior peaks?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

The answer is yes, absolutely.

Adam G. Hurwich - Ulysses Management LLC

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

And can you give us just a sense as to how much you think you can undercut those previous peaks?

John C. Gerspach

Analyst · Ulysses Management.

Well, if you take a look at Asia. I think we've said Asia in the past, has, over the last 10 years, sort of average loss rates of 3% to 4%. We could be in the 2s, longer term. Maybe so just kind of a shade below that. And I don't want to give you a view on the U.S. just as yet, but as I've said, we think that we're certainly trending down in both portfolios. But it's a little early to give you an absolute where I think that will end up.

Operator

Operator

There are no additional questions at this time. Are there any closing remarks?

John Andrews

Analyst

This is John Andrews, again, Investor Relations. Thank you for letting us bring this in under slightly 2 hours. Hope you have a good afternoon. If you have any follow-up questions, you know where to find us. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. You may now disconnect.