John Gerspach
Analyst · Sanford Bernstein
Thank you, Vikram, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 2, Citigroup reported first quarter net income of $3 billion or $0.10 per diluted share versus $0.15 in the first quarter of 2010. This quarter's results included a $709 million net pretax loss on the transfer of certain securities in the Special Asset Pool from held to maturity to Trading Assets, which I'll discuss later. We also saw a negative CVA [credit value adjustments] of $256 million from Citi spreads tightening compared to a positive $308 million last year. Revenues of $19.7 billion were down 22% versus the first quarter of 2010 due primarily to lower securities and banking revenues, declining assets in Citi Holdings and the loss on the asset transfer. Expenses were up 7% year-over-year to $12.3 billion, driven by higher investment spending, volume-related costs, the impact of foreign exchange, and higher legal and related costs, all of which were partially offset by continued productivity savings and declining expenses in Citi Holdings. Net credit losses declined for the 7th consecutive quarter to $6.3 billion, 25% lower than the first quarter of 2010. We also released $3.3 billion of net loan loss reserves compared to a $53 million net release last year. Turning now to Citicorp and Citi Holdings on Slide 3. Citicorp reported revenues of $16.5 billion and net income of roughly $4 billion in the first quarter. Results were lower than the first quarter of 2010, which benefited from a stronger trading environment. We continued to show progress in growing Citicorp with loans up 10% year-over-year, including 6% growth in consumer and 16% growth in corporate loans. Citi Holdings reported revenues of $3.3 billion and a net loss of $608 million. Citi Holdings ended the quarter with $337 billion of assets, down $22 billion during the quarter and down $166 billion year-over-year. Now on Slide 4, we show a 9 quarter trend for Citicorp's results. Excluding CVA, Citicorp's revenues were $16.7 billion, down 8% versus the prior year and up 9% sequentially, driven by higher Fixed Income and Equity Markets revenues versus the fourth quarter. Operating expenses of $9.6 billion were up 12% versus the prior year, more than half of the increase was due to higher investment spending. The remainder was roughly split between the impact of foreign exchange and inflation, and higher legal and related costs. Higher volume-driven expenses were offset by continued productivity savings. Citicorp's net credit losses were $2.3 billion, down 26% from the prior year, driven by Citi-Branded Cards in North America. We released $1.3 billion in net loan loss reserves, up from $367 million last year, mostly due to higher net releases in Citi-Branded Cards and the corporate portfolio. Excluding CVA, earnings before taxes of $6 billion declined 12% year-over-year and were up over 50% from the prior quarter. Citicorp continued to benefit from a strong emerging market franchise in the first quarter as shown on Slide 5. Excluding CVA, emerging markets contributed 44% of Citicorp's revenues and over 50% of earnings before taxes in the first quarter. We have generated year-over-year growth in emerging markets revenues for 4 consecutive quarters, driven by both our consumer and institutional businesses. This growth reflects consistent strength in underlying business drivers, with average deposits up 8% year-over-year and loans up 20%. While expenses have grown as we ramped up investments in these regions, we have also benefited from credit improvement as emerging markets recovered earlier than developed markets. As a result, while increasing our investments, we also maintained year-over-year earnings growth in emerging markets in each quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. Slide 6 shows results for our North America Consumer Banking business. Revenues of $3.3 billion were down 12% versus last year, mainly due to a decline in average loans and the impact of CARD Act. Expenses were up 4% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, as we continued to invest largely through higher marketing and technology spending. Credit costs declined 63% from last year to $797 million. Net credit losses were down 33% to $1.4 billion, driven by Citi-Branded cards, and the reserve release was $649 million this quarter. Net credit margin grew by 15% year-over-year to $1.9 billion. Sequentially, total accounts remained stable in the first quarter of 2011, while card purchase sales reflected a seasonal decline versus the fourth quarter. On a year-over-year basis, card purchase sales were up slightly on a smaller account base, reflecting 4% growth in sales per account. Turning to our international Consumer Banking businesses on Slide 7. International revenues were $4.6 billion in the first quarter, up 8% year-over-year, driven by growth in Asia and Latin America. Revenue growth reflects both an improvement in underlying drivers, as well as a benefit from foreign exchange, partially offset by spread compression. We also had a $70 million charge to revenues for the anticipated repurchase of certain securities sold in Asia. Year-over-year, average deposits and loans grew by 13% and 14%, respectively. Investment sales were up 5% versus last year and card purchases grew 20%. Expenses were $2.8 billion in the first quarter, up 18% versus last year, with roughly 1/3 of the increase due to the impact of foreign exchange and inflation. The remainder primarily reflects higher investment spending and volume related costs, partially offset by the continued productivity savings. Credit costs of $493 million were down 33% versus last year, driven by a decline in net credit losses. Higher revenues and the lower net credit losses resulted in net credit margin expansion again in the first quarter, up 16% year-over-year to $3.9 billion. On Slide 8, we show revenue growth trends for international Consumer Banking in more detail. Sequentially, we have grown average loans and deposits every quarter for 2 years and we saw progress again this quarter in card purchase sales and investment sales. These trends reflect the economic environment in these regions, as well as the results of our investment spending. With growing revenues and improving credit costs, we have increased our net credit margin year-over-year for 6 consecutive quarters. Slide 9 shows our Securities and Banking business. Excluding CVA, revenues of $6.2 billion were down 19% from the first quarter of last year, driven primarily by Fixed Income Markets. In Investment Banking, revenues were down $206 million to $851 million, primarily driven by lower debt underwriting. x CVA, equity market revenues were down 9% versus last year to $1.1 billion. Cash equity revenues and client volumes grew year-over-year, but were more than offset by lower trading revenues on principal positions. Fixed Income Market revenues, x CVA, were down 22% year-over-year to $4 billion. While client volumes remained strong, trading revenues on market making activities were lower versus 2010, reflecting, in part, tighter bid-offer spreads across most trading products, as additional liquidity entered the markets since last year. On a sequential basis, total markets revenues for equities and fixed income were up 64% in the first quarter, driven by higher volumes across most products and a more favorable trading environment versus the fourth quarter. Lending revenues were $244 million, flat versus last year. Private Bank revenues, excluding CVA, were up 5% year-over-year to $520 million. Total operating expenses of $3.8 billion were up 11% from last year, roughly half of the increase was due to the absence of a litigation reserve release in the first quarter of 2010. The remainder mostly reflects investment spending and higher volume related costs, partially offset by productivity savings. Credit costs were a benefit again in the first quarter as net credit losses were more than offset by net reserve releases in the corporate portfolio. Moving to Transaction Services on Slide 10. Revenues of $2.6 billion were up 5% from the first quarter of last year, driven by growth in Asia and Latin America. Treasury and Trade Solutions was up 3% on higher trade revenues and increased deposits, partially offset by spread compression. Securities and Fund Services grew 9% year-over-year, driven by higher volumes. Overall transaction volumes and new mandates remained strong across both businesses during the quarter. Asset growth was driven by trade finance, with average trade assets up over 80% from last year. Average deposits grew 11% to $355 billion and assets under custody were up 10% to $13 trillion. Expenses of $1.3 billion were up 14% versus last year, reflecting higher volumes and continued investment to grow the business, partially offset by productivity savings. Slide 11 shows Citi Holdings assets. We ended the quarter with $337 billion in Citi Holdings or 17% of total Citigroup assets. The $22 billion reduction in the first quarter was comprised of over $7 billion of asset sales and business dispositions, approximately $13 billion of net runoff and pay downs, and $1.3 billion of net cost of credit and net asset marks. On Slide 12, we provide more details on the transfer of nearly $13 billion of assets in the Special Asset Pool from held-to-maturity to trading. The majority of these securities had originally been classified as available-for-sale, and they were transferred to held-to-maturity in the fourth quarter of 2008. We have moved the securities to trading assets, allowing us to sell them as a mitigating action in anticipation of adopting Basel III. These $13 billion of securities would have had a disproportionately higher Basel III risk weighting compared to the remainder of the City Holdings assets. The transfer resulted in a net $709 million pretax charge to revenues resulting from the recognition of $1.7 billion in net pretax losses, which were previously reflected in OCI, partially offset by $946 million of mark-to-market and realized gains. OCI increased by $1 billion, representing the reversal of net unrealized losses after tax. To date, we have sold nearly 75% of these assets at prices generally at or above our marks. On Slide 13, we show a 9 quarter trend for Citi Holdings results. We narrowed the loss in Citi Holdings again this quarter to $608 million. Revenues were down 50% year-over-year to $3.3 billion due to declining assets, lower positive marks in the Special Asset Pool and the loss on the asset transfer this quarter. Expenses of $2 billion were down 22% versus last year and total credit costs were down 64% to $2.1 billion. Looking at the Citi Holdings in more detail on Slide 14, revenues in Brokerage and Asset Management were $137 million this quarter, down from the first quarter of 2010, which included gains on the sale of Habitat and Colfondos. In Local Consumer Lending, revenues were down 32% versus last year to $3.2 billion, driven by declining loan balances, a higher mortgage repurchase reserve build and a higher refund reserve build related to our Consumer Finance business in Japan. In the Special Asset Pool, revenues were a negative $7 million in the first quarter, down significantly from last year due to lower positive revenue marks and the $709 million loss on the asset transfer. Credit costs were down 64% year-over-year to $2.1 billion as credit costs continued to improve in both the consumer and corporate portfolios. Total net credit losses were down 25% to $4 billion as lower consumer net credit losses were partially offset by higher corporate losses. Credit losses in the Special Asset Pool more than doubled year-over-year to $670 million, reflecting higher costs of loan sales and higher net credit losses on loans for which we had previously established specific FAS 114 reserves, which were then released during the quarter. We released $2.1 billion of net loan loss reserves in Citi Holdings in the first quarter, nearly half of which was attributable to the corporate portfolio. Local Consumer Lending continues to drive the earnings performance of Citi Holdings with nearly $600 million of net loss for the quarter. Within Local Consumer Lending, the net loss was mostly attributable to the mortgage portfolio. Slide 15 shows the results for the Corporate/Other segment. Revenues declined by $410 million versus last year, reflecting lower investment yields and net losses on hedging activities. Net income also reflects higher operating expenses during the quarter. Expenses were up by $356 million versus last year, mainly due to legal and related costs. Assets of $281 billion include approximately $80 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $146 billion of liquid available-for-sale securities. Slide 16 shows total Citigroup net credit losses and loan loss reserves. NCLs [net credit losses] continued to improve in the first quarter, down 9% sequentially to $6.3 billion. And the net LLR [loan loss reserves] release grew nearly 50% to $3.3 billion. We ended the quarter with $36.6 billion of total loan loss reserves and our LLR ratio was 5.8%. Consumer NCLs declined 12% sequentially to $5.4 billion and we released $2 billion in net loan loss reserves. Corporate credit was a benefit of $520 million in the first quarter compared to $256 million last quarter. Corporate net credit losses grew 28% sequentially to $849 million, driven by charge-offs for loans for which we had previously established specific reserves, which were then released during the quarter. We released $1.4 billion of net corporate loan loss reserves in the first quarter, up from $920 million in the fourth quarter. Corporate nonaccrual loans of $5.5 billion were down 36% versus the prior quarter, the majority of which was attributable to EMI. Moving to consumer credit trends on Slide 17. As I mentioned, consumer net credit losses of $5.4 billion were down 12% sequentially due primarily to North America cards. Our net credit loss ratio declined again this quarter to 4.9% and our loan loss reserve ratio was 7.5%. Slide 18 shows our International Consumer credit trends. In Citicorp, NCLs continued to improve on both a dollar and a rate basis in the first quarter, while dollar delinquencies grew in some markets as we continued to grow our international loans. In Asia, India continued to show the most significant improvement in net credit losses. For the region, 90-plus day delinquencies were flat, but down as a percentage of loans. In Latin America, net credit losses continued to improve, driven by Mexico cards. And our 90-plus day delinquencies improved on a rate basis. On Slide 19, we showed Citi-Branded Cards in Citicorp and Retail Partner Cards in Citi Holdings. Credit trends for both portfolios continued to improve. In Citi-Branded Cards, NCLs declined for the fourth consecutive quarter. NCLs decreased by 19% sequentially to $1.4 billion and 90-plus day delinquencies were down 10% to $1.4 billion. In Retail Partner Cards, NCLs were down for the 7th consecutive quarter. NCLs decreased by 18% sequentially to $1.1 billion and 90-plus day delinquencies declined by 19% to $1.3 billion. For both portfolios, early stage delinquencies also showed improvement on both a dollar and a rate basis. On Slide 20, we show the North America mortgage portfolio in Citi Holdings, split between Residential 1st Mortgages and Home Equity Loans. 90-plus day delinquencies in both portfolios improved again this quarter. In Residential 1st Mortgages, we ended the quarter with $76 billion of loans, down 21% from a year ago. Sequentially, 90-plus day delinquencies declined by 18% to $4.5 billion and were down more than 50% from last year. Net credit losses increased slightly from the fourth quarter due to lower recoveries, but were down 26% versus a year ago. The sequential decline in first mortgage delinquencies was mostly due to asset sales and trial mods [modifications] converting to permanent modifications. During the first quarter, we sold $1.1 billion in delinquent mortgages. Over the past eight quarters, we have converted $5.3 billion of trial mods to permanent modifications. More than three quarters of these trial modifications were HAMP and we continued to experience re-default rates on HAMP-modified loans of less than 15%. The remainder were modified under other Citi programs. And to date, the re-default rate on these modifications has been less than 25%. In North America real estate lending and Citi Holdings, our total loan loss reserves represent two years of coincident NCL coverage. Slide 21 shows the trend in our key capital metrics. We ended the quarter with a Tier 1 Capital ratio of 13.3% and a Tier 1 Common ratio of 11.3%. Our GAAP assets declined 3% year-over-year, while we reduced our risk-weighted assets by 7% to $990 billion. Citi Holdings represents roughly 31% of our total risk-weighted assets. So in summary, the first quarter showed continued execution of our strategy. While Securities and Banking faced a less favorable environment as compared to the first quarter of 2010, our markets business grew significantly from the fourth quarter, with robust client activity across Fixed Income and Equities. Year-over-year, we generated strong growth in both international Consumer Banking and Transaction Services. Importantly, we accomplished these results in a challenging environment as low interest rates continued to compress spreads. We continued to invest in Citicorp and we are seeing results across our major business drivers, including loans, deposits, transaction volumes and card purchase sales. In Citi Holdings, we ended the quarter with $337 billion of assets, representing 17% of total Citigroup. Assets were down by 1/3 from a year ago and Citi Holdings expenses declined by 22%. Credit remained a significant contributor to earnings in the first quarter, as net credit losses continued to decline particularly in North America cards. During the quarter, we grew our tangible book value per share by $0.24 to $4.69 per share, and our Tier 1 Common ratio grew over 50 basis points to 11.3%. We also have over $36 billion of loan loss reserves. Based upon what we know today, we remain confident that we are on track to operate in the 8% to 9% Tier 1 Common range under Basel III in 2012. And assuming we have clarity on capital rules, we still expect to be in a position to begin returning capital to shareholders next year. Now, I'd like to discuss some factors that may affect our results for the remainder of 2011. In North America Consumer Banking, we continue to expect net credit margin to be primarily driven by improvement in net credit losses. As credit continues to improve, we will further increase our investments in the business. In international Consumer Banking, net credit margin is more likely to be driven by revenue growth, particularly in the second half of the year, as our investment spending should continue to generate volume growth to outpace spread compression. International credit costs are likely to begin to increase in 2011, reflecting a growing loan portfolio. In Local Consumer Lending in Citi Holdings, revenues should continue to decline given a shrinking loan balance resulting from pay downs and continued asset sales. However, as we've seen in the first quarter, the pace of decline in Citi Holdings assets has moderated. Regarding expenses, we continued to expect full year Citigroup expenses of $48 billion to $50 billion this year, with some variability across quarters as we continue investing in Citicorp, while rationalizing Citi Holdings. Certain expenses, particularly legal costs and the impact of foreign exchange will remain difficult to predict. Now that concludes our review of the quarter. And Vikram and I will now open up the line for questions.