Jon Bock
Analyst · Casey Alexander, Compass Point. Please proceed
Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. I can't tell you how much I've looked forward to walking through the strength and stability of the BXSL portfolio with you. And the best place to start is to tell you very briefly why I chose to join Brad and the team at Blackstone Credit. And I'm sure you all see us drive the immense scale and broad capabilities that Blackstone brings to private credit markets. Yet what surprised me. And it may also surprise you is how Blackstone pairs the power of its unique scale, with world class shareholder alignment to drive attractive performance and investor returns. And Brad alluded to this. This isn't something I take for granted; BXSL fee structure is materially lower than the average publicly listed BDC. BXSL also has a performance fee look back mechanism, and the management team has regularly demonstrated in industry leading ability and willingness to align with shareholders. I spent my entire professional career in BDCs and private credit early on as a sell side analyst before I became an operator and Chief Executive. When BXSL was formed in 2018, Brad Marshall stated that Blackstone would lead the BDC market with best practices. And in my professional opinion, they've done exactly that. I'm thrilled to join the team to be here today and join my colleagues. And that's actually a perfect segue to the portfolio. Remember, Blackstone's decision to focus on shareholder alignment upfront, allowed BXSL to build a more defensive portfolio that better protects shareholder capital in more challenging market conditions. So, let's outline what a defensive portfolio looks like. Jump to slide eight, let's start with seniority, 98% of BXSL investments are in first-lien senior secured loans, and over 95% of those loans are to companies owned by private equity firms or other financial sponsors who have access to additional equity capital to support their companies. The portfolio is highly equitable, with an average loan to value of 47.5%. But it's not just that we're senior in the capital structure. More importantly, we're focused on senior with companies of the right size in the right industries. Focusing on size, our portfolio companies have an average EBITDA of $167 million relative to $116 million as of 4Q '21 and we continue to orient the portfolio to larger, more durable businesses. And furthermore, recent data from Lincoln suggests that companies with greater than $100 million of EBITDA grew more than two times that of companies with less than $50 million of EBITDA in 2022 through Q3. Slide nine focuses on our industry exposure, where we believe investing in better companies, in better neighborhoods drive strong returns over time. This means focusing on key sectors with low default rates and lower CapEx requirements, such as software, healthcare, professional services, which account for over 36% of the investment portfolio. Diving into portfolio quality further jump to slide 10, here we compare the BXSL portfolio to the Lincoln International Private markets database. And many of you know Lincoln as a leading valuation provider to the private credit and BDC space, as they value a review over 5,000 private credit investments each quarter. Lincoln, in partnership with several faculty members of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business created the Lincoln Senior Debt Index, the leading Private Credit index which allows investors and managers to truly drill down into a loan level performance data for the entire private credit marketplace. And this is an extremely valuable index. So, in comparing BXSL, you can see that our weighted average EBITDA of $167 million is doubled the Lincoln market average of about $78 million. EBITDA growth for our portfolio companies is also double that of the Lincoln benchmark. And importantly, on profitability, our portfolio companies have EBITDA margins that are 35% higher. Let's talk about interest coverage, because interestingly, this is a stat that gets widely shared on other listed BDC earnings calls. But the way it's calculated by BDC Managers varies widely. In some cases, certain sectors or types of loans are excluded. In other cases, Managers exclude negative EBITDA companies, both decisions that obscure the averages, and leave investors looking for better transparency. When we calculate interest coverage, we include all private company EBITDA, including companies that have borrowed on a recurring revenue loan, so Managers exclude these types of loans or underperforming loans from their metrics, we do not. Next, we compare our portfolio to the Lincoln database, which we believe is most representative proxy for the entire credit market. We currently sit at least 12 months average interest coverage of 2.3 times today, which is slightly higher than the market average of two via Lincoln. This difference remains resilient when interest rates with interest rates at December 31 levels through the portfolio, and when you run that through the portfolio that brings our average interest coverage to 1.7 times versus the private credit markets of 1.4. We attribute this stability to our focus on larger, more profitable higher growth businesses. Yet we also hear from our investors and other market participants, that it's less about averages, particularly averages that are obscured by exclusions, and more about the tails, mainly the percent of one's portfolio below an interest coverage ratio of one-time on a forward basis using higher rates. If we flow through the December 31 spot rates, we can see that BXSL would have roughly 8% of its portfolio with an interest coverage ratio below one compared to the Lincoln private credit markets database, which have more than twice that amount, a very stark difference. And for those reasons, I think we're positioned better than the private credit market. And further, we don't believe that less than one times coverage in our portfolio driven by higher rates directly translates to potential credit losses for companies where fundamentals in the outlook remain healthy. And really we believe that the markets right, averages will not tell the story of direct lending performance, the tails will and we seek to limit our tail risk through our focus on better larger businesses in more resilient sectors. And we continue to see favorable results. Blackstone has also built its conservative credit culture on a foundation of structural protections for investor capital. And we do this while focusing on larger deals. Note that when Blackstone leads or co-leads, the vast majority of our deals have structural protections against asset stripping and collateral release to prevent any shifting of assets out of our collateral package, and almost none allow for uncapped EBITDA add backs all materially better than the leveraged loan market. Let's turn to amendments. We work with our portfolio companies constructively in the regular course. And to provide an idea of scope of the 23 amendment requests we received in the quarter, 56% of those were related to M&A or add-on activity, and 43% were related to SOFR rate hedging or other technical adjustments. We did not have any companies that need immediate interest, principle or covenant relief in the quarter. And to be clear, should our companies face more challenging times, we have a large operational teams. Brad mentioned that can help them reduce expenses, improve operational efficiencies, or source new revenue channels, and we believe our portfolio and scale set at, they set BXSL apart from the rest of the private credit field and our dividend increase further reflects our confidence in the future. Jump to slide 11. As Brad mentioned, we elected to raise our dividend by nearly 17% from $0.60 to $0.70 per share with a current dividend yield at NAV of approximately 10.8%. The absolute dividend level generates what we can consider to be an attractive return but I also want to highlight how Blackstone shareholder aligned approach allows us to pay this elevated distribution, even in a lower rate environment. Many of you are familiar with the concept of BDC math, which essentially asked this, at what spread over the base rate must a BDC lend to generate the dividend they promised investors. And as you might expect, that answer can vary widely depending on the BDC. Higher costs BDC fee structures characterized by higher base management fees, higher incentive fees or all OID scrape that requires such BDCs to originate at a wider spread on assets, which may be associated with higher risk loans in order to meet the dividend obligation. At today's base rates, we estimate BXSL at our future fee structure of 1% and 17.5% incentive with a follow-back would need to originate at approximately SOFR plus 400 to meet its dividend obligation before prepayment fees well below the current investment opportunity set, and all else equal as of December 31. Additionally, let's say base rates were to fall to 2%, BXSL would need to originate or invest at roughly a SOFR plus 600 level to meet that same return all well within the strike zone of private credit across cycles. And as compelling as math may be, I want to leave you with a somewhat philosophical view of our approach to dividends. We believe the best dividend policy can support both a steady and stable distribution and long-term NAV growth and we believe BXSL's low fee shareholder aligned approach does exactly that. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kevin to go over the financials.