Doug Linde
Analyst · Manny Korchman from Citi. Your line is open
Thanks Owen. Good morning everybody. While our leasing and our overall investment actions are pretty influenced by what we view is long-term perspectives on the various market conditions, you are going to hear a lot less about this from me this quarter. And I am going to really spend most of my time talking about the factors impacting the next 12 to 18 months and the issues in our portfolio market conditions, the space that we are working on to lease or re-lease, how we are going to achieve that significant incremental NOI that Owen just described from our portfolio, as well as the growing contribution from our ongoing development investments. That’s going to be the focus of my comments. A couple of comments on our – on some of the supplemental first though. So overall, leasing activity in the third quarter picked up from the second. We were slightly more than the second quarter by about 100,000 square feet. Those second generation statistics had some interesting SKUs and that I sort of I wanted to highlight. In fact, each of the various regions had something going on with it. So in Boston, there was a pretty significant uptick and that was really from two transactions. The first was a lot of leasing that was done in Cambridge. Those – leases were actually signed in 2014. And then there were a number of leases at 200 Clarendon Street and the increase in the net rents on all of those transactions was over 100%. Interestingly, San Francisco looks pretty muted. And the reason for that is two fold. The first is that there was a large renewal at Gateway that was done in 2013 that was actually 60% of the square footage that was in the stats. And then the EC office number interestingly, while it was only positive 25% on a net basis that was because there was a 5-year renewal that was done in 2012 on about 50% of the square footage in the EC and that was done at $50 a square foot with dollar bumps. Interestingly, we have just completed the lease this quarter, one floor above that lease where we did a same as is 5-year renewal for the starting rent on the new transaction is $70 with 3% increases. So you can sort of get a sense of the dramatic increase in rents in San Francisco just over the past 3 years. In DC, we have a large law firm renewal completed in ‘14 that became effective this quarter and the rent went from 46 net to 38 net, but that’s on a last contractual rent number to the beginning contractual number. So 2.5% increase is the actual GAAP rent is actually higher than $46 over the term 15-year lease. And in New York City, there was a former city floor that was re-leased at 601, where the rent went from $109 to $79. And with 540 supplemental where we did a 20,000 square foot deal at base of the building where the rent went from $135 to $70. Just to gauge any concerns, are our mark to market in New York City right now, as it stands in 2016 is over $9 a square foot and in 2017, it’s pretty flat and I will talk about what’s going on in ‘17 as we get into 3.99. So let me begin my formal remarks on our markets with Midtown Manhattan. So during the quarter, we did 12 deals for about 90,000 square feet. Ten of those deals had starting rent over $90 a square foot and seven of those deals were above $100 a square foot. The bulk of our availability and rollover in the portfolio in the next few years occurs in spaces that come in rents in excess of $100 a square foot. While it’s a small subset of the Midtown market, it continues to be a very healthy and growing one. Activity is expanding, overall there has been an average about 870,000 square feet of leases done per year since 2011, over $100 a square foot and about 30% of that is new. And in 2015, we have already seen 900,000 square feet of activity above $100 a square foot and about 35% of that is new. Nonetheless, the transaction size continues to be small with a preponderance of the activity of leases under 10,000 square feet for non-renewals and there are relatively few deals above 40,000 square feet for renewals. So you have the temper what’s going on in that market given the scope of the transaction sites. We are fully leased at 510 Madison, no rollover until ‘17. We are working through those law firm rebuilds that we have been describing at 599 Lex and we are going to be getting back the three floors of swing space in 2016, late ‘16 where we already have leases out on two of those floors, with rents over $90 a square foot. At 250 West 55th, we have leases out on all of our remaining pre-builds and we have half lower deals on two of the remaining three available floors. We expect to have full revenue contribution by the third quarter of ‘16 at 250 West 55th. We are seeing heavy traffic across the entire portfolio, but with very limited current vacancies, most of our transactions revolve future availability. At 767 Fifth, we are getting back 80,000 square feet in July of 2018, the expiring rent – excuse me, the expiring rent is under $100 a square foot and we expect that space to lease for over $180 a square foot. We are actively marketing the former FBO space, which will be available for lease in early ’17. And we have active interest from tenants ranging in size from 14,000 square feet to the entire 65,000 square foot unit. At 399 Park, there are 640,000 square feet expiring in ‘17. We have 280,000 square feet of the base leased to Citi and we are in lease discussions on 180,000 square feet with starting rents equivalent to Citi’s expiring rent in the high 80s. There was a 97,000 square foot block in the lower portion of the building. We have got a proposal out on 75,000 square feet and over $105 a square foot. There is 150,000 square foot of block in the middle of the building, we are going to get that back in September of ‘17 if leased it about $100 a square foot and we expect to achieve rents over $115 a square foot. And the final Citi block is of 110,000 square feet of below grade space and that’s leased at about $50 a square foot. At 601 Lex, we are in the planning stages of a major repositioning of the retail in the low-rise building. We are working on a plan to vacate the entire 140,000 square foot office building including 70,000 square feet that currently under leased to Citi. This is going to result in ‘16 and ‘17 additional vacancy as we renovate that portion of the complex. We have no vacancy right now at 601 and so the New York team is actively looking at ways we can control currently leased space. So, we can move forward with these plans. This quarter, we actually took back a floor at the top of the building in order to accommodate the potential repositioning. This is high contribution space, which is going to result in the diminishing of 16 occupancy and revenue, but consistent with our core strategy and philosophy, we are making decisions with the long-term to maximizing the value of the asset and the portfolio. In DC, our development at 601 Mass opened in September, a little bit early. The office space is 86% leased, the retail is 100% leased and the income contribution will ramp up in ‘16 and fully contribute in ‘17. This development is being delivered at an initial stabilized cash return in excess of 8%. While the delivery impacted citywide brokerage statistics negatively this quarter, our view really is that the overall market conditions in the CBD of Washington, D.C. haven’t really changed much. The district continues to be very competitive since there just hasn’t been a lot of significant increase in user demand. We completed another major renewal of our law firm deals at 1330 Connecticut where the incumbent tenant renewed for 15 years on 212,000 square feet of approximately 240,000 square feet currently occupied. That new rent is going to commence in ‘17. The rent rollup is over 25% on a net basis. As part of this transaction, we will be using 52,000 square feet of 1333 New Hampshire space, which is across the street as swing space. This space is technically leased, but it’s not going to be revenue-producing until the repositioning of 1330 is over. And that space would ultimately rent for over $65 a square foot growth today. We are making steady progress on all the availability at our JV assets at Market Square North, 901 and Met Square. Activity in Reston continues to be very strong, though with limited availability again in our portfolio. Activity really is involving, extending and expanding tenants by accommodating takeovers and sublets. All of this is in the context of starting rents above $50 a square foot in the urban core. Our portfolio has a vacancy rate of under 3%. Overall, Reston vacancy is 14%, Roslyn is over 30%, Tyson is over 18%, and that’s just actual vacancy not availability. The weakest subset of our DC portfolio is the GSA-related properties in Springfield and Annapolis Junction. And while the user groups want to need space, the GSA mandated densification and to-date, the lack of appropriations in the defense complex have severely limited current demand. We hope that the changes with the House of Representatives and the changes with sequestrations and the new budget deal will in fact add to the demand for the defense complex and improve our leasing prospects in these properties. The Boston CBD continues to be a really good market as supplies dwindled over the past few years. Although, there is speculative development in the Seaport and we are obviously adding inventory to the Back Bay with 888, demand is currently lease expiration driven. At 120 St. James, that’s the low-rise of 200 Clarendon area, we have 180,000 square feet of availability and we have responded to three full block proposals in the last 90 days, each anticipates full utilization of the space in 2017. At 200 Clarendon in the high-rise, we completed 88,000 square feet of leasing this quarter, including one floor in that 150,000 square foot block from 44 to 48. While we have seen interest from a few multi-floor users, the high end demand in Boston has typically been for users under 30,000 square feet and we expect to lease this space in smaller units. As we said previously, we expect to have a rent commencement on all the space towards the end of 2016 and into 2017. At 888 Boylston Street, we have topped out the steel, we are 71% leased. We actually completed our first retail lease this month with an 18,000 square foot multi-floor user. We have extensive conversations going on with retailers in all of the remaining retail space at 888, which we expect to open in 11 months and a few months after, that will open a few months before or excuse me after the office space opens in the summer of 2016, and so 888 will have full contribution by the end of 2017. Since we have no availability in Cambridge, I just have a few comments there. Asking rents are now in excess of $80 a square foot and in spite of the recent volatility in the life science industry, as well as some job reductions around specific companies, there continues to be a flow of new tenants looking for a beachhead in Cambridge, which is home to both the life science and technology businesses. Lack of available supply continues to be the story. The Cambridge Redevelopment Authority has made this submittal to the city for up-zoning of our Kendall Square project and we hope to have some clarity on our ability to build more space by the end of the year. There is no real update on the Volpe site disposition. The GSA schedule suggests an award in early ‘17, which means no additional spaces at Volpe for four to five years. In Waltham, that metro market continues to get stronger driven by organic expansion. This quarter, we did 19 leases in our suburban portfolio, 150,000 square feet and we had a similar amount under lease negotiation right now. All of the space at 10 CityPoint is committed, rents in excess of $50 a square foot for the top floor. The project will deliver in mid ‘16 at a cash return over 8%. Rents have increased 25% over the last 18 months at our CityPoint project. While there is no speculative construction currently underway, our reservoir north renovation where we basically scraped the building other than the structure is very much underway and we anticipate rents in the mid to high 40s of significant upgrade from the expiring rents that we had in May in the low 30s. Again, this won’t occur until 2017. At the – finally, I want to talk about San Francisco. At the June NAREIT meeting, there was a real focus on demand in San Francisco and whether we were seeing signs of concern. Now, we’ve lay off the Twitter and the limited activity in the IPO market, I think it’s become another renewed topic of conversations. Well, between 2011 and 2014, the annual CBD leasing activity averaged about 9.3 million square feet and absorption was about 1.5 million square feet a year. Through the end of the third quarter this year, there has been about 6 million square feet of completed transactions and 1.4 million square feet of absorption. Leasing activity continues to be healthy. Tech demand has averaged about 55% of this activity, where there has been sublet space, it’s been small pockets and it’s leased for strong rents. Last quarter, the big news was that Apple grabbed the sublet space at 235 Second. Our largest sublet is our Morgan Lewis space at EC 3 stemming from the merger with Bingham, 125,000 square feet expires in August of 2016. We are negotiating leases for three of the five floors right now and have multiple proposals out on the rest of the space. We get the space back, as I said in August of ‘16. The anticipated rollup is over 100% on this 125,000 square foot block. There is speculative new construction in the city, 181 Fremont and 333 Bush and Block 40 are all under construction adding about 1.4 million square feet, but the vacancy rate is under 6%, total availability is under 8.5% and after an FAR deposit in October, the Prop M Bank is currently under 1.75 million square feet and that’s it. Down in the valley, Apple committed to another 800,000 square feet in the new development. They are purchasing additional land in North San Jose, Palo Alto Networks is growing, Google is growing, Aruba is growing, Toshiba is growing, General Dynamics is growing, Silver Spring Networks is growing they have all committed to large new expansions. At Embarcadero Center, we completed another 116,000 square feet of leases during the quarter. The largest deal was 41,000 square feet and the mark-to-market was over 60% on a gross basis and over 100% on a net basis. None of these transactions are in our same-store stats for the quarter. We are now actively engaged on over 350,000 square feet of full floor tenants, including the five currently vacant floors, a 117,000 square feet of vacancy with an average starting rent on those floors of over $80 a square foot. The largest tenant is only 51,000 square feet. The anticipated rollup is in excess of 50% on a gross basis and over 75% on a net basis on all of that space. In total, we have over 1 million square feet of near-term lease expirations and vacancy with an average rent of $53 a square foot at EC. At 535, we are now 91% leased and we have leases out on all but 4,000 square feet. The last three deals were a foundation and insurance company and a law firm. The building should be fully contributing by the third quarter of ‘16 at a cash return of over 7.8%, 150 basis points greater than our original performance. We have 700,000 square feet of available space at Salesforce Tower. Currently, we have leases out on 100,000 square feet totaling 4.5 floors. We have active or multi-floor discussions defined as multiple letters of intent being exchanged proceeding with asset managers, hedge funds, VCs, law firms, consulting firms, real estate brokerage companies and other non-tech service firms that encompass more than 475,000 square feet. Only two of these tenants are existing customers at Embarcadero Center. These requirements are all lease expiration driven for occupancy at the end of 2017 or early 2018. In summary, activity at Salesforce Tower and the rest of our city portfolio is robust as much as we had seen since we bought the property in Embarcadero Center back in 1998. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.