Jon Gray
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Thank you, Glenn
Yes. Glenn, I think it’s a good question. We talked about the best sectors and the most challenged sectors, let’s say, being retail and hotel. And your question is this, we go into this recession, what happens to real estate. And I guess a couple of things: one positive happens is that I think we’ll see a large decrease in new supply, which helps. That’s what always happens in a recession. The other thing is, you can look at the path. So more traditional asset classes, apartments, warehouses in the last downturn, saw high single digit, mid to high single-digit declines in sort of same-store cash flows. It’s very possible. This is deeper. So you could see a little more than that. Although, I think it’s too soon to say and e-commerce creates a different dynamic in industrial.In the office markets, your income tends to be steady because of the length of your contract, although the market will weaken as companies pull back. There is a question you’ve raised around, will people still – will they work more remotely? That’s a question. There will also be questions going the other way about will firms have the same density? Or will they spread out a little bit? I still believe in the fullness of time. I mean, working at home, we’ve made it work, but we think it’s better. We’re much more efficient when we’re together.So I guess I would start to think about this once we get through this very challenging part where so many people are on the sidelines when we move more into a, let’s call it, a more traditional recession and slowdown in those areas of real estate, you will see some impact certainly in terms of occupancy levels and rents, but you will also see the benefit of no new construction, and as I mentioned earlier, very low interest rates, which will likely, I think, put downward pressure on cap rates for stable assets.So as an overall portfolio, when we look at what we own in real estate, we feel pretty good about it, and we’re in some particularly strong sectors like India office or life science office that are very large holdings of ours. But yes, there is going to be some headwinds in some of these sectors, and that will play through, and it takes a bit of time for that to happen.