BW LPG Limited (BWLP) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone and thank you for joining us today. My name is Aline Anliker and I'm the Head of Corporate Communications at BW LPG. On behalf of the management team, I'd like to extend a warm welcome to all of our shareholders investors, analysts and valued stakeholders joining us for our quarterly earnings presentation. We appreciate you taking the time to be with us and for your continued interest and confidence in our company. Joining me today are our CEO, Kristian Sorensen; and our CFO,Samantha Xu, who will walk you through the quarter's performance, key market developments and our strategic priorities moving forward. Following the presentation, we will open the floor for a Q&A session. You are welcome to submit questions throughout the Q&A chat, throughout the presentation or alternatively, raise your hand to ask your question directly during the Q&A part. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the legal disclaimers shown on the current slide. Please also note that today's presentation is being recorded. And with that, and with that it is my pleasure to hand over to our CEO, Kristian. Kristian Sørensen: Thanks, Aline. Hi, everyone. Thanks for dialing in as we review our first quarter financial results and recent developments including our announced new buildings and the Middle East situation, which is still overshadowing the markets. Let's turn to Slide 4, please. The first quarter was another one with significant geopolitical volatility, marked by increased inefficiencies from the Middle East conflict driving higher shipping demand from the U.S. and resulting in extraordinarily high freight rates, which we will cover in more detail in the market overview section. In addition, as disclosed over the weekend, we are pleased to announce that we have signed a contract for a 90,000 cubic meter Panamax new buildings with HHI with expected delivery from start 2029 until the second quarter of 2030. Further details will be covered on the next page. Moving on to the Q1 results. We reported a TCE income of $55,500 per available day above our guidance of $54,000 per day and $51,300 per calendar day. The Q1 profit after minority interest was $164 million, equivalent to an EPS of $1.08. Our trading branch, BW Product Services reported a gross profit of $127 million and a profit after tax of $98 million for the quarter. The extraordinary high results are mainly driven by large unrealized mark-to-market valuation gain of the portfolio. Prior to no delays, we expect a large part of this to be realized by end of Q2, for the second quarter 2026, we're guiding on about $81,000 per day fixed for 85% of our available days. These are solid levels of our all-in cash breakeven of $24,500 per day. The figure includes the fixed time charter coverage in the second quarter of 40% of our available days at $44,000 per day. Please see in the appendix in this presentation for the full breakdown of time charter days and levels. The Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $0.67 per share with $0.56, representing 100% of our shipping NPAT in Q1 and $0.11 per share from Product Services final dividend from 2025. Following the front heavy drydocking activity in 2026 with 257 days related to drydocking in Q1 alone. The majority of the drydocking is now behind us. We expect off-hire days to reduce to approximately 105 days in the second quarter. In other subsequent events during the first quarter, we fixed BW Brage and BW Gemini for 5- and 3-year time charter-out agreements in the low $40,000 per day. We also fixed the BW Pampero, which is part of our India fleet for a 1-year time charter out at high $60,000 per day with delivery in August. As the Middle East tensions have persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. We still have one vessel from our India flag fleet inside the Persian Gulf on time charter. The 2 other vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz safely back in April. Turn to Slide 5, please. Okay. During the weekend, we announced that we have signed a contract for the construction of eight 90,000 cubic Panamax VLGCs, with an average newbuilding price of approximately $117.5 million per vessel. This is subject to final technical specifications on the respective vessels. The new buildings are expected to be delivered from start 2029 until the second quarter of 2030. This newbuilding series underpins our ongoing fleet renewal program, reducing the average age of the current fleet by about 3 years after the last newbuilding delivery. Furthermore, the Panamax new buildings represent the most flexible design, future-proofing our fleet composition. Newbuilding prices have eased from peak levels around $125 million some years ago, while shipyard capacity remains constrained for the foreseeable future in a high energy price environment. This is likely to increase the inflationary pressure the way we see it. Against this backdrop, the timing of the newbuilding order is supported by a strong balance sheets, enabling fleet renewal and capital structure optimization by balancing shareholder returns with long-term value creation. Furthermore, the newbuilding deliveries follow the peak of the order book in 2027 and '28, coinciding with additional U.S. and Middle East LPG export capacity coming online. Various financing options are currently being considered with 30% of total newbuilding price to be paid within the next 6 months. Next slide, please. Now let's take a look at the market. Increasing inefficiencies are reshaping LPG shipping economics and driving a historically strong VLGC market. The LPG shipping market entered 2026 on a strong footing, supported by solid U.S. LPG production growth and accelerated ramp-up in export capacity. Following the geopolitical disruptions, the market has experienced simultaneous reactions that are reshaping trade dynamics, increasing inefficiencies, absorbing shipping capacity and ultimately supporting higher freight rates. Heading into 2026. U.S. propane inventory stood well above historical norms at around 100 million barrels versus 85 million barrels a year earlier. Strong production, combined with stable domestic demand created a persistent export surplus. At the same time, infrastructure developments added further momentum with the Energy Transfer, Targa and enterprise terminal expansions ramping up VLGC loading capacity in the U.S. Gulf. The outbreak of the U.S. Iran war end of February and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduced the structural disruption to Middle East LPG exports. This removed a significant portion of VLGC loading volumes almost immediately and triggered the forced relocational trade flows with longer sailing distances as vessels increasingly sought cargoes from the U.S. Gulf. The Middle Eastern exports with Middle East and exports remain in constrained, the U.S. Gulf has effectively become the supplier of LPG to Asia, operating close to maximum utilization as it compensates for the loss of Middle East and export volumes. At the same time, high spot fixture activity in the U.S. has tightened vessel availability and supported elevated freight rates. In addition, a larger number of VLGCs than expected has remained idle in the Arabian Sea waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen rather than seeking U.S. cargoes, and this has further tightened shipping supply. As other shipping segments with high willingness to pay also experience change in freight flows, the traffic and congestion in the Panama Canal have increased. This has resulted in more VLGCs selling via the Cape of Good Hope significantly extending voyage distances between the U.S. and Asia and thereby absorbing additional shipping capacity from the global fleets. And this long-haul trade pattern via Cape of Good Hope has been bolstered even further as India and Southeast Asian countries are now importing basically all the LPG from the U.S. Next slide, please. Looking at the North American exports. The expansion is taking place somewhat earlier than anticipated as U.S. exporters are racing to replace lost Middle East volumes. Consequently, North American exports forecast is raised significantly for 2026 on the back of high oil and gas activity and demand for Middle East replacement volumes. Provided a reopening on the Middle East exports markets, volumes from the region will contribute more to overall growth in global shipping volumes. In our forecast, we assume reopening of the Hormuz during second quarter 2026 and then a gradual normalization, but this is obviously hard to know for sure. More U.S. export capacity is set to come online in the coming years. While we conservatively anticipate most of Energy Transfer and enterprise flex export capacity being allocated for ethane exports and the very large ethane carriers are delivered over the next years. Next slide, please. Looking at the current fleet and order book. We can see that the fleet has grown in the last 3 months and now stands at 429 VLGCs on the water. The order book is made up of 130 VLGCs currently under construction with delivery stretching all the way to the beginning of 2030. We've seen a significant ramp-up in contracting our vessels in recent months. And while we expect more newbuildings to be delivered going forward, we also keep in mind that 9% of the fleet is older than 25 years. So as a summary, there are several factors driving the VLGC freight market to unprecedented highs. Sharp increase in U.S. LPG exports, coinciding with the Middle East exports being choked has created a long-haul trade pattern where the sailing distances are compensating for the lost Middle Eastern volumes. As mentioned, it's impossible to have a clear view on when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. But when it does open, we expect repairs or production export infrastructure to take time before the LPG exports reach prewar levels. As I said before, the Panama Canal remains a wildcard in our markets. And we believe the congestion will increase as several shipping segments are competing for the limited number of transit slots. While the order book is substantial, the fleet continues to age with more than 40 vessels equivalent to 9% for the fleet already exceeding 25 years of age. Also keep in mind that 53 wheel disease are considered part of the shadow fleet. And that concludes our market segment. Over to you, Samantha.

Thank you, Kristian, and hello, everyone. Let's zoom in on our financial performance for the quarter. Start with our shipping performance. We delivered a quarter with a TCE at USD 51,300 per calendar day or USD 55,500 per available day. The free utilization was 92% after deducting technical off-hire and waiting time. The healthy performance was underpinned by a strong spot market full of uncertainties and a continuous disciplined execution of our commercial strategy [indiscernible] on time charter portfolios and FFA at a healthy level. In Q1, we have fixed the time charter portfolio at 53% and out of which 41% was fixed rate time charters. Looking ahead for Q2, we have fixed 85% of the available fee days at an average rate of about USD 81,000 per day. This also included index-linked time charter contracts, which could fluctuate with the spot market changes. Looking at full year 2026, we have secured 42% of our portfolio with fixed rate time charter and FFA hedges at USD 44,800 and $48,100 per day, respectively. Altogether, our time charter out portfolio is expected to generate around USD 245 million. Next slide, please. Product Services posted a realized loss of USD 10 million in Q1. Separately, Product Services also reported the USD 145 million increase in mark-to-market on our cargo position, offset by a USD 8 million decrease in paper position. After accounting for general and administrative costs and other expenses, Product Services reported a net profit after tax of USD 98 million for the quarter with net asset value of USD 150 million at quarter end. As we highlighted previously, this mark-to-market movement would fluctuate regularly are largely driven by the gradual phasing in of our multiple year term contract as reflected in a volatile market. While the periodic value adjustments are significant, they reflect delta between the balance sheet date, and we'll continue to see fluctuations before the positions are realized. We will continue to report our future trading performance, including the mark-to-market changes via our quarterly trading updates. It's also important to note that trading gains and losses are realized across different financial periods. They cannot be extrapolated from past performance as unrealized position will vary depending on the end period valuations. Our trading model is designed to create value by combining cargo, paper and shipping positions. With that in mind, we would like to remind you that the reported net asset value does not include unrealized physical shipping position of USD 69 million, which is based on our internal valuation. In Q1, our average VaR, value at risk, was USD 6 million, reflecting a well-balanced trading book, including cargo, shipping and derivatives. The VaR is expected to increase as we continue to account for the increased to term contract volumes that will start from the end of 2026 and continue to accumulate into mid '27 and beyond, while this also reflects a volatile market in the meantime. Next slide, please. Okay. Going on to our financial highlights. We reported a net profit after tax of USD 187 million, including a profit of $9 million from BW LPG India and $98 million profit from product services. Profit attributable to equity holders of the company was USD 164 million, which translate into our earnings per share of $1.08 per share for the quarter and an annualized earnings yield of 25% when compared against our share price at the end of March. We reported a net leverage ratio of 26.3% in Q1 and down from 28.4% at the end of '25. The reduction reflects principal repayments made during the quarter. The Board declared a dividend of $0.67 per share representing 100% payout of our quarterly shipping profits and $0.11 per share, 2025 final dividends from BW Product Services. The 100% shipping profit payout is beyond the 75% payout ratio as guided by our dividend policy, [indiscernible] newly announced fleet renewal program, to invest up to USD 940 million for 8 Panamax vessels. The dividend decision is a reflection of a continuous for lining principle to give back to our shareholders in a good market. We are also pleased to see such principle is supported by our healthy liquidity and positive market outlook. For the period end, our balance sheet reported shareholders' equity of USD 2 billion. The annualized return on equity and on capital employed for Q1 were 38% and 30%, respectively. Our Q1 2026 OpEx was concluded at $7,300 per day, a reduction than previously reported. For '26, we expect our own fleet operating cash breakeven to be about USD 19,000 and $21,300 for the whole fleet, including time charter vessels. The all-in cash breakeven is estimated to be $24,500 a slightly up from last reported due to predelivery funding cost for the new buildings. Next slide, please. Finally, as of end Q1, we maintained a healthy liquidity position of $680 million, which consists of $176 million in cash and $442 million undrawn credit facilities, providing a strong base to support our newbuilding project. Looking ahead, our liquidity stays strong. Repayment profile remains sustainable with major repayment starting from 2030. We're confident of maintaining a healthy liquidity and repayment profile to support our newbuilding project. On product services, trade finance utilizations stood at USD 161 million or 22% of our available credit line, leaving ample headroom for future trading needs. And with that, I would like to conclude my update. Thank you for listening, and get back to you, Aline.

Thank you, Samantha and thank you, Krisitian. We would now like to open the call for your questions. [Operator Instructions]. Yes, we have Jostein Aschjem.

Yes, perfect. So this is Jostein Aschjem. from DNB Carnegie I just had a question regarding product services. So as Samantha also mentioned during the presentation, you had a very strong Q1 figures, which was also driven by the mark-to-market effect on the contract portfolio. Currently, it looks like the FOB premium has come down somewhat. Have you taken any actions in order to secure some of the profit? Or how should we think about the product services results going forward. Kristian Sørensen: Jostein, thanks for the question. I can start. So like you say, the arbitrage is somewhat narrower than it was at the peak. But as you may know, the business model at product services is having is based very much on hedging positions and ensuring that you can actually capture the profit through the paper market by locking in the margins. So as mentioned by me in the presentation, we do hope and expect that a large part of the mark-to-market gain will come to realization in the second and probably also into the third quarter. So but we will come back with the trading update as per normal in between the earnings presentations and can shed some more light on it then. Samantha, anything you'd like to add?

No, that's correct, Kristian. And I think it's also about where portfolios positions in the curve. -- although the position has changed as we speak. We do expect there's some realization or the reclassification from open position to be realized to be -- to come through by Q2.

Yes. So the realized position should be get going forward as well. But how about the mark-to-market, -- should that be more normal or potentially negative as the terminal fees has come somewhat down. Kristian Sørensen: Well, it -- since you're coming from a very high level, it's a little bit like the freight market as well. I don't think it's completely natural if you see a correction in the market reflected in the in the mark-to-market and the valuation in the portfolio because you're coming in from a very high level. So relatively, there could be a correction on the back of that. Did that answer your question?

Yes. Yes. And if I just have one last question. So I saw the charter hire expenses come up some $7 million from the last quarter. Is it any sort of profit sharing mechanism on the charter hire contracts? Or anything else explaining the difference? It doesn't look like you have added any time charter vessels into your portfolio?

It sounds like you have a cover shipping long enough and you are [indiscernible].

Would it be possible to give any indication on the mechanism? Kristian Sørensen: It's down to the -- it's a profit split on some of the time charters. So I prefer not to go into detail on the specific deals that we have done.

Fully understand.

Thank you. Next up, we have [ Tim Mullen ], please, if you want to proceed.

I wanted to start by asking a follow-up on the vessel that is strip inside the Strait. The vessel is on time charter. But when does the contract end? And secondly, should the vessels still be trapped when the contract end date arrives. How would you proceed? Would you still receive a daily [indiscernible]? Or how would that work? Kristian Sørensen: The ship is on time charter. It's with a cargo on board. So of course, the charters would like to sell and discharge a cargo before redelivering the ship. So it's -- that's something we'll have to get back on -- but the situation is that the ship is still on time charter. And when the Strait of Hormuz opens, we hope that we can ensure a safe transit for the ship, so she can find a discharge for cargo.

Okay, makes sense. Thanks for the color. And I also wanted to ask about your assumptions for Middle Eastern volumes on Slide 9. Krisitian, you show 2027 volumes down a bit relative 2025 and I was wondering what are the key assumptions behind that? Is it damage to infrastructure facilities in the region? Kristian Sørensen: Yes. Well, as you know, the recent much LPG flowing out of the Middle East at the moment. So of course, you will then have a reduction simply because the recent any exports from the Middle East taking place as we speak. So the -- if you go back to some of our previous presentations, we had forecasted about 44 million tons, up from 3940 million last year to be exported from the Middle East. And obviously, this is reduced now that there is basically no exports taking place.

But Kristian, I meant 2027, not 2026. Kristian Sørensen: Yes, sorry. So that's -- sorry, misunderstood. That's the ramp-up, which is gradually taking place as we believe it will take probably a year even longer to finalize repairs on production and export infrastructure.

Thank you. Any more questions verbally before we move on to the Q&A in the check. If not, then maybe let's turn to the written Q&A. The first one would be from Arne. Can you provide some color on TC fixing going forward? -- for example, is the plus/minus 30% coverage in 2027 meant to remain stable? Or will the company aim to maintain about 40% coverage as in Q1 '26. Kristian Sørensen: Thanks for the question, Arne. We have more or less an outspoken aim to have approximately 40% at least on time charter. So you should expect us to increase that cover ratio as we get closer to 2027. But it also depends on what time charter levels we can see in the market because, obviously, we also want to -- we also need to fix vessels for period business at the level we find attractive. But provided the rate level, the time chart level is attractive. We will work to increase that cover ratio up towards the 40% we are talking about.

There is a follow-up question from Arne. Kristian Sørensen: Could you provide some additional information regarding the decrease in cargo and delivery expenses as well as voyage expenses. Additionally, could you elaborate on the factors driving the increase in chartering expenses during the period. Yes, Samantha, I think this is probably one for you.

Arne, can you point a little bit closer, which part you're referring to? Just before you come up with a more specific reference of numbers, I could say that some of the voyage-related costs could also be because the product services as part of a risk management process have reduced [ CFR ] cargoes and the increased some of the FOB deals, which then naturally reduced the voyage expenses. In the meantime, you can, if you can follow up with the more details in terms of a specific what numbers you're looking at, that would be very helpful.

Then meanwhile, let's move on to a question from Andersch. With respect to the currently very elevated VLGC rates and LPG inventories seemingly plateauing in the U.S. Could you offer some views on future or situation? Kristian Sørensen: Well, I think I also replied so along the same lines earlier. Of course, the AR was wide by the ever probably back some weeks and months ago. And it's not natural that the arbitrage is narrowing as people have filled up their storage at least for a short period of time. And then they are typically widens again. So this is typically, what we see when we also have a normal market functioning where you have wide arbitrage periods with wide arbitrage followed by more narrow arbitrage because simply because people have in the consuming markets stocked up, and they are not as willing to pay up for additional cargoes any longer. So I don't know if that replied answer the question, but, yes.

Thanks, Kristian. We have another question from Gregory regarding the VLGCs waiting of Hormuz. Do you expect Sun to migrate to the U.S. market after receiving U.S. Coast Guard regulatory approval and if so, to what extent. Kristian Sørensen: Yes, we do see more of the ships balancing to the U.S. for cargoes, more of the Indian control tonnage, for instance. So the answer to this is yes. It's a number which is hard to specify here now on the spot, but it's clear that there are more ships which have the U.S. Coast Guard approval for loading in the states and have also taken the decision to ballast into the Atlantic Basin for cargoes out of the U.S.

Thank you. We have a couple of more questions actually. So Someone is referring to Page 9, are the new enterprise and AltaGas terminals already at full run rate and when did this start or how much more do they have to ramp up? And why do you show minimal growth in U.S. exports in your 2728 forecast despite the new terminal start-ups. Kristian Sørensen: Yes. So the flattish growth that we are showing is due to our, like I said, rather conservative assumption that most of the flex capacity, which is currently going at full steam or allocated to LPG exports, will be allocated to ethane exports from energy transfer and enterprise as more of the VLECs ethane carriers are delivered in the coming years. Then you will see that on the same slide, there is another expansion taking place with a pure LPG export terminal facility from enterprise and AltaGas, which is going to take place somewhat later this year. And then you have Targa and ONEOK also expanding towards the end of the decade. So I may say we are a little bit conservative in this assumption, but we like to take that approach since we also see that this is linked to the deliveries of all the ethane carriers in the coming years.

And then we have a follow-up from Arne on his earlier question directed to cementa. So it's regarding the Voyage expenses. He was referring to the decrease from $92.9 million in Q1 '25 to $59 million in Q1 '26. The difference in charter in expenses has already been addressed. So thank you for that clarification as well. Is there anything you would like to add here, Samantha?

Well, I think part of it is -- well, some of our savings on the bunkering due to we have very much increased the bunkering to use our LPG fuel in a like-for-like basis especially in a day like this is a cheaper alternative than a conventional field. Separately, we also make some savings on the port charge side as well as other vessel-related costs as captured in the line of voyage cost. So if you -- that's pretty much reflect the major change of the voyage cost honor.

And Arne comments, thank you for the helpful responses as always. So thank you, Samantha. Another question from Andersch. Could you share some further views on Panama congestion the situation as of now, but also considering the fairly high chances of El Nino this year. Kristian Sørensen: Sure. The Panama Canal congestion is basically varying from day to day, but -- so it's hard to give exact picture today. But just to illustrate, we have over the last couple of weeks, had auctions for available transit slots reaching as high as $4 million just to have access to the Panama Canal. And this is before the canal fees. And then suddenly, 2 days later, you could see in the next auction that it drops down to maybe 400,000, 300,000. And then 2 days later, it's up to $3 million again. So this is simply speaking, a supply-demand situation on the day of the auctions. But the trend is pretty clear. And especially if you are stuck on the wrong side of the canal, you have to make a transit to not lose the cargo dates in Houston. Of course, people are willing to pay up quite substantially to get through the canal. And please also keep in mind that the competition from other shipping segments is increasing as more ships are being delivered in the container segments VLECs from the ethane side, VLGCs and so on. So it's something we believe is going to continue and even strengthen in the years to come. When it comes to El Nino, I can see everyone is talking about 80% chance of El Nino and lower water levels in the Panama Canal is here. If that plays out, it would be a very similar situation to what we saw in 2023, I think. And obviously, that would push more VLGCs and also other shifts from other segments around the Cape of Good Hope to and from the U.S. and Asia.

There's a follow-up from Andersch. Could you elaborate a little on which type of ships tend to bid their way through the canal when it contests, so like dry, LPG, et cetera, guessing it varies, but at least to some further color on the topic. Kristian Sørensen: LPG vessels definitely have had a high willingness to pay up because the freight levels have been accelerated as they are. Tankers have also, from time to time, paid up. We know, for instance, that Australia was almost running out of diesel has at least [indiscernible] chatter in the market was saying at 1 point. And of course, then the tankers heading to that direction, we're also willing to pay quite a lot to secure transit slots, ethane carriers, container ships are always there also to compete. So it's a good mix, I would say.

And then follow-up, El Nino again, will this have a lagging effect? Or is it coincidentally typically? Kristian Sørensen: Not entirely sure what you referred to on that one, Andersch. Could you be a bit more specific, please?

So then maybe let's continue with [indiscernible] when you say that 85% of available fleet days fixed at 81,000 is that number of available days, including or excluding the TC days fixed at [ 44,000?] Kristian Sørensen: Yes. As mentioned, it's including the time charter portfolio.

All right. The next 1 would be, thus, the bookings data of 85% fixed at 81,000 per day just corresponds to the spot bookings, -- or does that also include the TC bookings of 39% at 41.80. And does it also factor in the FFAs or not.

So Yes. I think Kristian has previously mentioned, basically, the 85% has included both of the TC fixed rate TC coverage as well as the FFA.

And then another one on a different topic. Given strength on earnings, is there any consideration for stock repurchases in the open market, this is from Kevin. Kristian Sørensen: Kevin, as you know, we have a share repurchase program, which we actuate from time to time. It's typically when we see our share trading quite well below NAV -- so it's not something we find attractive and creative -- or shareholder value creating at the moment because our share price is -- is trading at the levels above NAV at the moment.

Thank you, Kristian. And then Andersch specified on the El Nino. So his question was related to if El Nino will drive lower water levels in the canal immediately? Or does it take some time from the higher temperature until it starts affecting water levels that drives congestion and long-haul effects for transporters. Kristian Sørensen: And this is it [indiscernible] at the level of detail. I'm not sure I can reply here and now. So I think -- what we could do is to get back to you after having looked at that with the research team here in our company. So we'll get back to you.

Thanks, Kristian. Let me check that we have any more verbally -- like any more verbal questions, someone who has raised his or her hands -- and then quickly in the jet again. I don't see any more questions right now. All right. So if no more questions, then I would like to say thank you to everyone for joining us today. and for your continued interest and support of BW LPG, we really greatly value your time you've spent with us. So this concludes BW LPG's Q1 2026 earnings presentation. A replay of the webcast and together with the call transcript will be made available on our website shortly. On behalf of the entire BW LPG team, thank you once again, for participating. We wish you a great rest of your day. Thanks, and bye.