John Crimmins
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Sure, it's really hard to forecast anything, so I'm going to stay away from numbers, but we do have some color that, I think might be helpful. So for gross margin, we think that's going to be relatively stable in the second half of the year. If you think about merch margin, our inventories are really clean coming out of the second quarter as clean as we have ever seen them. So any markdowns going forward are going to be based on how well we were able to balance the flow of inventory with the sales trends, same challenge we have all the time, just a little bit more volatile this year. SG&A in the second half is going to continue to be impacted by COVID related expenses in a similar way to the second quarter, but not exactly the same. We expect COVID related costs to be higher, kind of moving along the sales volume and increased traffic that we expect and hope to see in our stores in the second half. But, we don't expect to be incurring the store re-opening costs, at least we hope we won't be, at least to the degree that we have them in the first half of the year when all of our stores were closed and then reopened. So we're not going to give up a number expected for the COVID related costs in the second half, because it's really difficult to project, but there would be some, kind of deleverage pressure as we continue with the costs related to keeping our stores safe and comfortable for shoppers and associates. Product sourcing costs as a percentage of sales, we do expect a little bit of deleverage pressure in the second half, for a few reasons. You already mentioned the DC labor shortage, which slightly is likely going to drive some incremental costs. We're also going to see, we believe, some downward pressure on AUR. Part of that's driven by better buying, allowing us to pass more value to our customers. And some of it is going to be related to category of mix changes. And there could be some other pressure as we continue to improve, work on improving our ability to get goods to our stores faster and keep inventory at the right levels. Obviously, the sales volume in Q3 and Q4 is going to have an impact on our product sourcing costs leverage, so it's difficult to pinpoint. But directionally that's kind of how we're thinking about it. Overall, given our conservative inventory planning and the potential for continued depress sales levels, we’re going to expect continue deleverage on expenses. The magnitude is obviously dependent on our ability to perform as well as we can on the sales line. But as I said earlier, we think that most of the deleveraging factors we face this year are temporary. And then post pandemic, our model is going to turn back to what it was prior to the pandemic.