Carlos Alves de Brito
Analyst · UBS
Well, thanks, Graham. Good morning, everyone. Today, AB InBev reported a solid start to 2012. Our #1 priority is to drive top line growth by investing behind our Focus Brands, premiumizing [ph] our portfolio and driving execution in the field, while maintaining strict financial discipline. The results of the first quarter reflect the success of this strategy. Volumes of our Focus Brands grew by 3.5%, with our 3 global brands growing ahead of this rate at 4.8%. Revenue grew by 6.2% with net revenue per hectoliter growth of 5% on a constant geographic basis. EBITDA grew by 7.4% and EBITDA margin expanded by 43 basis points to 38.1%, both on an organic basis. Finally, our earnings per share grew by 43.8% to $1.05 on a normalized basis. Profitability remains very healthy, with the year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion reported this morning extending our track record of incremental improvements since the end of 2008. Volumes of our 3 global brands, Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's, grew collectively 4.8% in the quarter. Global Budweiser delivered volume growth of 7.3% on top of the 3.1% delivered in 2011 and 1.7% in 2010. Brand health remained stable in the U.S. and we saw strong performances in most of our key markets around the world. Those include double-digit volume growth in China, Russia and the U.K. where we are sponsoring the FA Cup for the first time. As in previous years, the FA Cup, which this year will take place -- actually, Cup Final, which this year will take place on May 5, is expected to attract a huge global audience. Hundreds of millions of people will watch the game, either live or recorded. This is another great example of how we are able to use our footprint to leverage a property across multiple geographies. Budweiser is also performing well in Canada with positive share trends on the back of a strong hockey program. In Brazil, the brand continues to exceed expectations after a slouch in August last year, and we're launching Bud in the Ukraine as we speak. In summary, global Budweiser is in great shape. Stella Artois volumes grew by 1.3% with growth of more than 23% in the U.S. and more than 70, 7-0 percent in Brazil. We also saw volume growth of 5.5% in Argentina and almost 12% in Canada, where brand health is at a record high. Volumes are down in the U.K. although Stella Artois Cidre continues to grow, adding to the health of the brand family. Beck's volumes declined in the quarter, with good growth in the brand's home market of Germany being offset by softness in the U.S. and the U.K. Rollouts of our renovations and innovations continues in all of our key markets. The largest innovation in the quarter was Bud Light Platinum in the U.S. And I will talk more about this later. But as you can see, we're very active in other markets ranging from the continued rollout of Antarctica Sub-Zero in Brazil, to the launch of Hoegaarden 0,0 Rosée in Belgium. Our pipeline of renovations and innovations is very healthy, and we will keep it that way. Turning now to our key markets and firstly, the U.S. We estimate that the industry's selling-day adjusted sales-to-retailers, STRs, grew by 1.3% in the quarter, benefiting from favorable weather, especially in the central and eastern parts of the country, coupled with early signs of improvement in employment levels and innovation in the beer category. Our selling-day adjusted STRs grew by 1%, with market share trends improving in the quarter resulting in a marginal decline of 14 basis points, our best share performance since 2009. The main drivers of this result were our strong commercial plan to start the year, solid NFL and Super Bowl initiatives in partnership with our wholesaler network and the rollout of the new and exciting innovations led by Bud Light Platinum. Bud Light Platinum STRs reached more than 0.5 billion hectoliters in just 2 months. And according to our estimates, it helped drive 64 basis points of total share growth for the Bud Light brand family. Beer net revenue per hectoliter grew by 4.3%, including 151 basis points of brand mix contribution, driven by Bud Light Platinum, the growth of our high-end portfolio and consumer trade-up from value brands. Given the success of Bud Light Platinum, I thought it would be helpful to share with you some of the consumer insights we have gained in the first few weeks since launch. Awareness for the brand has grown very quickly, achieving over 70% among our core target group of 21- to 34-year-olds. Trial and repeat purchase has also been positive. Initial research shows that 42% of triers have made a repeat purchase. And of these, over 50% have bought Bud Light Platinum 2 or more times. Of course, these are early days for the brand, but the results are encouraging and ahead of our expectations. IRI data for the 4 weeks through April 1 shows that the brand has achieved a 1.4% share with more than 90% distribution in food, drug, mass merch and convenience channels, with all of our 4 regions -- all of our regions exceeding their targets. This is a great example of our business philosophy of choosing a few big things and doing them very well. Bud Light Platinum also demonstrates the strength of our distribution network. But what's even more impressive is that this performance has been achieved with a single primary pack, the signature cobalt blue 12-ounce bottle, and only 2 secondary packs, the 6-pack and the 12-pack. As I mentioned, Bud Light Platinum has helped to drive 64 basis points of share growth for the Bud Light brand family. Bud Light Lime-a-Rita, which is currently being rolled out to wholesalers, will further add to the strength and appeal of the Bud Light brand family. As you can see, the focus in the first quarter was on NFL, Super Bowl and Bud Light Platinum. However, activation for Budweiser is now in full swing. New Budweiser Major League Baseball packaging is already in the market. And we'll follow up the successes of 2011 with an enhanced Red, White and Blue program. As part of our programming, we'll also be donating up to $2.5 million to Folds of Honors, an organization that provides scholarships to the children of injured or fallen U.S. servicemen and women. We'll also have limited edition packaging in the market later in the summer in support of the U.S. Olympic team. Ultra had another strong quarter, with volumes up 7.2% and share growing by 10 basis points. The brand remains in good health, and our new line extensions, Ultra 19th Hole and Ultra Light Cider will help to build consideration and expand usage occasions. Our high-end brands in the U.S. continue to outperform the industry, led by Stella Artois, which grew 22% in the first quarter, with total market share improving by more than 10 basis points. Shock Top also had another excellent quarter with volume growth of 81%. In addition, Leffe grew by almost 40% and Goose Island by over 20%. As a result of these performances, our total high-end brand volumes grew by almost 19%, driving share growth of the total market of more than 20 basis points. Our share of the high-end category grew more than 150 basis points. Growth in the high end is an important driver of our revenue per hectoliter performance. Clearly, renovation and innovation is a key driver for our U.S. business, and we have plenty of new offerings either in the market or to be launched in the coming weeks. It's a very exciting lineup. Turning now to Brazil. Despite cooler and rainier weather than normal in January, and helped by positive impacts from the increase in minimum wage, industry volumes grew by 3% in the quarter. We outperformed the market with our beer volumes growing by 4%, resulting in a market share of 69% for the quarter. This represents a gain of 70, 7-0 basis points versus the same period last year. We continue to invest in the quarter in order to enhance consumer preference for our brands, but we also decided to adjust our promotional calendar and invest more heavily behind Carnival this year. Carnival is a unique platform, and we connected with our consumers not only through our official sponsorships in cities such as Recife, Rio and Salvador, but also through a nationwide promotional campaign which gave consumers an opportunity to experience this major event live with their friends. Our first quarter performance was also helped by the continued rollout of our liquid innovations, Skol 360 and Antarctica Sub-Zero, as well as our 300 ml returnable glass bottle package innovation. In terms of regional performance, brand growth in the North and Northeast continues at a rate well ahead of the national average. Finally, as anticipated, beer net revenue per hectoliter grew by 2.1% in the quarter, due to a difficult comparable with the same period last year and a larger-than-normal impact from state VAT increases. Budweiser is making an increasing contribution to our growth in premium. The brand is consolidating its position in major cities and was rolled out to the Northeast region during the quarter. Budweiser has only been in the market for 7 months, but based on current performance, we expect it will become the leading international brand in the country. Moving finally to China. The industry was impacted by poor weather conditions in the quarter, but we outperformed the market and grew share. Our volumes grew by 3.2% with our Focus Brands at Budweiser, Harbin and Sedrin growing nearly 3x faster. The 3 brands accounted for 75% of our total volume in the quarter. The results from Budweiser and Harbin were particularly strong. The growth of Budweiser, the leading brand in premium in China, was a major factor in the revenue per hectoliter growth of more than 9% in the quarter. Before I hand over to Felipe, I would like to draw your attention to a change in the Executive Board of Management, the EBM, which was referenced in our press release today. Miguel Patricio, currently Zone President, Asia Pacific, will become Chief Marketing Officer effective 1st July 2012, replacing Chris Burggraeve, who will leave the company at the end of this year. Miguel is currently Zone President of Asia Pacific, a position he has held since the beginning of 2008 and has a wealth of marketing, sales and general management experience. Prior to joining us, Miguel held several senior marketing positions across Americas at Philip Morris, Coca-Cola Company and Johnson & Johnson. Taking over for Miguel as Zone President, Asia Pacific, and joining the EBM effective January 2013, is Michel Doukeris. Michel started his career with our company in 1996 and has been AB InBev China's President since January 2010. I'll now hand over to Felipe to cover the highlights in the other 3 zones and the below EBIT results. Felipe?