Raimundo Monge
Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead, Philip
Thank you very much and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Once again, welcome to Banco Santander-Chile’s fourth quarter 2016 results, webcast and conference call. As told, my name is Raimundo Monge, Director of Strategic Planning, and I’m joined today by Emiliano Muratore, our CFO; and Robert Moreno, Manager of Investor Relations. Thank you for attending today’s conference call in which we will discuss our performance in the fourth quarter. Let us start our call with a brief update on the outlook for the Chilean economy. In the quarter, we have begun to see some positive news in the economic front. According to market consensus, the economy should grow between 2% to 2.2% in 2017. We have also included our forecast for GDP growth in 2018 at 2.7%. Unemployment continues to be resilient. Inflation has fallen below the Central Bank’s inflation target at 3%, which has opened the door to the Central Bank’s first interest rate cut. We expect at least one more cut in rates in the first-half of this year. Finally, consumer expectations are improving, which is also another positive sign that the economy should begin to perform a little bit better in 2017. The recent strength in corporate prices may result in upside potential to our GDP growth forecast. Loan growth in the banking systems remains stable. As of November, loans were growing at 5.6% year-on-year, quite in line with our expectations for the year. The growth rate of mortgages loans has been decelerating as anticipated, but the positive growth of most non-mining sectors and the stability of employment have kept loans to individuals expanding at a healthy rate. Asset quality has been improving, a reflection of loan growth in riskier segments and a healthy corporate loan book. For 2017, we continue to expect loan growth for the system between 6% and 7%. Now, we’ll give further detail into the implementation of our strategy and how it’s benefiting our client activity and results this year. Net income in 2016 totaled Ch$472 million and increasing 5.2% year-on-year. Pre-tax profit was up 10.3% in the same period. The Bank’s ROE reached 17.1% in the year, which was in line with initial guidance despite an annual inflation rate that was below the market expectations of around - the initial market expectations of around 3%, 3.3% for the year. The Bank achieved its ROE target due to the strong growth of our client activities. Core business profits showed solid trends throughout 2016 with healthy loan growth, stable client margins, expanding fees, sound asset quality indicators and controlled cost growth. These propelled a 25.6% year-on-year increase in the net contribution from our business segments. These was partially offset by two elements; number one, the lower inflation rate in 2016 compared to 2015 and the impact that this has on our net interest margins, NIMs; and secondly, the higher effective tax rate due to the hike in statutory tax rate. In the fourth quarter of 2016, net income attributable to shareholders totaled Ch$109 million. Compared to 4Q 2015 net income increased 29.7% due to 63.8% year-on-year increase from the net contribution from our business segments and the recognition of an additional provision of [Ch$35,000 million] [ph] in 4Q 2015 due to the new provisioning requirements. Compared to 3Q 2016, net income fell 10.9% Q-on-Q, due to the lower inflation rate in 4Q 2016 compared to 3Q 2016, and the lower income from our wholesale banking unit. In terms of strategy, the bank made important advances this quarter in all of our four strategic objectives. As seen in the slide, our strategy has circled around, number one, focusing our growth on those segments with a higher risk adjusted return; number two, increasing client loyalty through an improved client experience and quality of service; number three, deepening our ongoing commercial transformation by expanding the bank’s digital banking capabilities; and four, optimizing our profitability and use of capital to increase shareholder value in time. Regarding our first strategic objective, during the fourth quarter of 2016, loans increased 1.3% Q-on-Q and 7.5% year-on-year. The bank continued to focus loan growth on segments with the highest profitability net of risk. This signified positive growth among larger SMEs and the mid-to-high income individuals, while still avoiding growth in the low-end of the consumer business and the low spread wholesale lending segment. Retail loans increased 2.1% Q-on-Q and 9.2% year-on-year. Consumer loans were the fastest growing product in the quarter and grew accelerated to 3.1% Q-on-Q and, 7.1% year-on-year. Despite loan growth in the middle market and our wholesale unit GCB, both of these segments had record years in terms of contribution to the bank’s bottom line. This was due to a strong increase in loan lending revenue such as cash management, investment banking and treasury service for clients, as well as positive asset quality numbers. The bank was selective in its growth in 2016 that still managed to gain market share in loans. Loan market share including interbank loans increased 40 basis points with a rise in market sharing in both consumer mortgage and commercial loans. The Bank’s strategy of focusing equally on both lending and non-lending businesses has also led to positive growth on the deposit in the year. Total customer funds, which include deposits and mutual funds managed by the Bank increased 1.6% Q-on-Q and 6.9% year-on-year. Total deposit increased 3.2% Q-on-Q and 5.9% year-on-year. In the quarter, non-interest bearing demand deposits led growth and increased 9.1%. Also in the quarter, local pension fund experienced strong flows to their fixed income funds. These lowered long-term interest rates and improved issuance spreads. The Bank took advantage of this momentum and issued the equivalent of US$700 million grossly in long-term bonds, mainly in the local market. This also demonstrates that when the cost of issuing bonds abroad rises we have access to ample liquidity in the local market at attractive rates. The Bank also focused in 2016 on improving its funding cost. The Bank’s main source of funding are nominal time deposit in Chilean pesos. The average cost of these deposits descended throughout 2016. These should help to support client margins in 2017, not only did our funding cost also improved in 2016, but we were able to expand our market share in the process. Total deposit market share was up 30 basis points in 2016 with a 14 basis point rise in our market share in non-interest bearing demand deposits. In the 4Q of 2016, net interest income decreased 2.1% Q-on-Q and 0.6% year-on-year. The net interest margin reached 4.2% in the quarter. The main reason for this lower margin was the lower inflation rate in 4Q as already mentioned while client margins remained stable. At the same time, the large inflow of liquidity in the bank via deposits in the quarter and bonds in the quarter, led to an increase in lower yielding financial investments, which should normalize in the early quarters of this year. Client net interest income, which is net interest income from our business segments and excludes the effect of inflation increased 6.8% year-on-year in 4Q 2016. Client NIMs reached 4.8% in 4Q 2016 compared to 4.9% in 3Q 2016 and 4.8% in 4Q 2015. The 10 basis point Q-on-Q fall in client NIMs compared to 3Q 2016 was mainly due to the shift in the loan mix away from the low end of the consumer market. This is leading to a gradual improvement in the Bank’s cost of credit, which should continue in 2017. In the 4Q of 2016, the net interest margin net of provision in retail banking rose 40 basis points compared to both the third quarter and the year-end of 2015. We expect in 2017 the net interest margin net of provision in retail banking to expand a further 10 to 20 basis points. The Bank’s strategy of de-risking the asset mix had a positive impact in asset quality and coverage ratios across the board in 2016. In the fourth quarter, the non-performing loan ratio reached 2.1% flat compared to the previous quarter and 40 basis point lower than by year-end 2015. Total coverage of non-performing loans finished the year at 145.4%, up from 117% in December 2015. Provision for loan losses decreased 6.9% Q-on-Q and 41.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter 2016. As a reminder, provision expense in the last quarter of 2015 included a non-recurring pre-tax provisions of Ch$35,000 million directly related to regulatory changes regarding provisioning models for mortgage loans, and substandard consumer and commercial loans analyzed on a collective basis. Excluding this impact, provision expenses still decreased 23.9% Q-on-Q in the fourth quarter. The cost of credit in the quarter was 1.3% compared to 1.4% in 3Q 2016 and 1.8% in 4Q 2015. This lower credit - this lower cost of credit was mainly due to a decrease of 34.8% Q-on-Q, and 14.5% year-on-year in provisions for consumer loans. As mentioned in previous earning reports, the bank has been enforcing a strategy of lowering the exposure to the low-end of the consumer loan market. This entailed an active policy of charging off and bolstering coverage ratio in the lower income segment. In the whole of 2016, this signified approximately Ch$36,000 million in higher provisions for consumer loans. We expect lower provisions for consumer lending in 2017 given the aforementioned rise in coverage plus the change in the consumer loan mix, improvements in admission policy and more efficient recovery efforts. This improvement in asset quality was visible, not only in consumer loans, but in all products. As we can see in the graphs on this slide, the non-performing loan ratio fell in all of our products and the coverage ratios rose significantly as well, this notable considering that 2016 was a relatively low growth year. Moving forward, we expect that the non-performing loan ratio should remain relatively stable. Regarding our second strategic objective, the Bank continued to increase customer loyalty and improved customer satisfaction, which are key strategic goals as they create sustainable and long-term value for our shareholders. In the quarter, Santander-Chile reached another milestone in our efforts to create a bank that is simple, personal and fair for our clients, as it closed the client-satisfaction gap we maintain with our main peers. As of October, 77% of our clients rate us with top marks in client service. According to an independent survey conducted every April and October of each year, positive teamwork together with our technological innovations such as the CRM has made this achievement possible. This sustained improvement in customer service should be a key driver for commercial growth of cross selling and fee growth going forward. Loyal individual customers, that is clients with more than four products plus minimum usage and profitability levels in the high-income segment grew 11.1% year-on-year. Among mid-income earners, loyalty customers increased 8% year-on-year. Loyal middle market and SME clients grew 12.9% year-on-year. These initiatives are driving fee growth. On a 12-month basis, fee income was up 7.1% in 2016, in line with our guidance. In the fourth quarter, fee growth slowed down mainly due to lower fees in retail banking. This was to a large extent due to the lower origination of mortgages loans that affected insurance related fees. The bank has also been eliminating money-losing ATMs, which lower fees but it improves overall profitability. In the quarter, the bank also developed various initiatives in digital and branch network transformation, in line with our third strategic objective. Since 2013, we have been in engrossed in an ambitious project of redesign and testing new distribution models. The bank is transforming its branch network by adapting a market segment approach with its smaller branches that are multi-segment with dedicated spaces for the different business segment. These new branches are more productive and client-friendly. And therefore, we do not expect this to impact our business volumes. In 2016, we remodeled 57 branches to our new multi-segment format. In 2017, we expect this trend to continue while closing and consolidating less efficient branches. In 2016, we also innovated by opening two Work/Café branches. These branches are high-tech, high-touch branches, with no human tellers or back office. These innovated branches, which also have a café, meeting rooms and free Wi-Fi, were one of the most relevant innovation in the local banking. In 2017, we expect to open approximately 18 Work/Cafés. The Bank’s digital transformation and new branch format has been quite successful and as a result the Bank accelerated its branch closure plan in the quarter. This fourth quarter, the bank closed 21 Santander Banefe branches that attends the mass consumer market. This transformation is boosting productivity. In the last two years we have closed 8% of our branches and eliminated 21% of our ATMs. In this same period total volumes per branch has grown 32%. An increase in transactions through channels such as Internet, mobile and phone banking has allowed the bank to reduce its brick and mortar network without hurting business growth or client service. In Internet banking for example, our market share excluding the state-owned bank is close to 40%. This signifies that more and more customers are performing to a transactionous [ph] operation through our web and this reduces the need not only for branches but for ATMs as well. The effectiveness of the Bank’s CRM has also increased commercial productivity, as well as the implementation of other digital initiatives. We believe that this trend should continue in time contributing to increase our operational excellence and contain cost growth. In 2017 their priority will be to further develop our mobile banking capabilities and the usage by our clients. These efforts are beginning to pay off. 2016 operating expenses increased by 3.9%, a little below our initial guidance. Moving forward, we expect the growth rate of course to remain at this level as the result of this productivity enhancing and cost cutting measures should become more visible. Finally, our client-driven strategy is optimizing profitability and capital, and increasing shareholder value. The Bank concluded the quarter with strong capital ratios. The core capital ratio reached 10.5%, 20 basis points higher than the same period last year despite the higher payout ratio. The growth of risk-weighted assets was merely 2.9% year-on-year compared to 7.5% for loans. The Bank has been implementing a number of initiatives to control the growth of nonproductive risk weighted assets. Given the good dividend the bank has been paying plus the share appreciation, since the end of 2014 the ADR of Santander-Chile has outperformed several of our main LatAm peers, reflecting the positive results of our strategy are bringing to our shareholders especially in the long-term and despite being operating in a relatively challenging economic environment. In summary, during the quarter then in 2016 the Bank continued executing its strategy and maintained a solid client business momentum. The Bank has been steadily improving its competitive position in the market, gaining market share across the board, increasing its customer loyal base and transforming its business model and distribution capability to face both a more demand in business environment and digital challenges most companies are now facing. In 2017, revenues should expand in line with loan growth driven by higher GDP growth and the better level of customer businesses driven by gains in loyalty and market share gains. This should be further leveraged by two factors. Number one, a lower cost of credit, which should go down to levels between 1.1% and 1.2% for the year and, cost [ph] growth that should be in the range of 4% to 5%. This will be partially offset by a higher effective tax rate that rises 1.5 percentage points and some lower inflation as we have already mentioned. All in, this double-leverage effect should lead to our ROE expansion in 2017 in the range of 17% to 18% as long as U.S. inflation remains above 2.5%. At this time, we will gladly answer any questions you might have.