Raimundo Monge
Management
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, once again, welcome to Banco Santander-Chile Third Quarter 2014 Results Conference call. This is Raimundo Monge, Director of Strategic Planning. I am joined today by Robert Moreno, Manager of Investor Relations. Thank you for attending today’s conference call in which we will discuss our performance in the third quarter of ‘14. Following the webcast presentation, we will be happy to answer any questions you might have. Before we go in to more detail regarding our results, we will briefly give our latest update on the economic outlook for the Chilean economy in 2014 and 2015. As forecasted, the economy continues to decelerate in the third quarter, mainly due to the lower-than-expected investment and consumption levels. 2014, we are anticipating GDP to grow around 1.9% with internal demand that is consumption plus investment expanding 1.2%. We expect the economy to rebound in 2015 with a GDP growth of around 3.2% and internal demand expanding 3.4%. The inflation rate measured by the variation of the U.S. and inflation linked unit and the most relevant indicator for banks should rise to 4.6% this year due to depreciation of the peso and the effects on prices of some goods [ph] as a result of the new tax law. We expect inflation to return into a more normal level of around 3% in 2015. Given this outlook, the Central Bank continue to cut interest rate in the quarter to 3%. We expect the central bank to pause its interest rate cuts as further reduction could depreciate the peso a fuel greater inflation. The quick [ph] rebound of the economy should be driven by various factors. First of all, the outlook of growth of Chile’s main trading partners especially the U.S. continues to strengthen. In fact, the weighted average GDP growth of Chile main trade partners continues to be revised upward [ph]. This should be positive for the contribution of Chile’s export growth to GDP. Export growth as mentioned in GDP figures should expand at around 6% this year and the next. Regarding investments, in 2014 we are expecting a contracting of 4% and a recovery to levels closer to 2% in 2015. This should be driven by two main factors, first of all, the investment are expected in the infrastructure and the energy sectors. Second of all, we believe that the various reforms [ph] being discussed in Congress will be resolved via broad-based compromises resulting in a rebound in investor and consumer confidence. Finally, total consumption including government expenditure should continue to grow at around 4% both in 2014 and 2015. All in, this represents a relatively supportive macro environment for banks. For this reason, loan growth should continue to grow close to 9% in 2014 and around 8% in 2015. Deposit growth have slowed as the high inflation and low interest rate environment has led to a greater flow of money to money market funds. But liquidity levels remain quite packed [ph]. The profitability of the Chilean banking system is also stabilized into [ph] a more normalized inflation and interest rate environment in the third Q of the year. Asset quality in the financial system has also remained relatively stable. Now we will review how the bank continues to move forward in its strategic objectives and the main commercial results achieved in the quarter. The evolution of our quarter results reflects as expected the lower inflation rate. But more importantly, the bank experienced robust business trends despite the lower growth of the economy. We attribute this to our commercial strategy of focusing growth first of all in those segments with the highest risk adjusted contribution. This has been achieved with an increased use of our new customer relationship managing platform CRM, improved quality of service, strong growth of corporate transactional services such as cash management and in reaping the full benefit of a revamped upgrade [ph] model. The evolution of our asset quality indicators also shows that we are slightly ahead of the risk of the system in making the necessary changes to confront on better footing the current economic environment. Our capital levels remain robust. All of these will allow us to continue to achieve an ultimate balance between our return on equity and our cost of capital. By maximizing these relations, we believe we will be able to expand shareholder value going forward. In the third Q of ‘14, total loans increased 2.2% q-on-q and 9.6% year-on-year. In the quarter, the bank continued to focus on strategy of expanding the loan book to less riskier clients and segments. Lending to individuals increase 2.7% year-on-year and 12% year-on-year. Those in the high-income segment which are mainly distributed through the Santander select network increased 3.9% q-on-q and 17.1% year-on-year. While in the Santander Benefit Unit which I think [ph] low range of segment, the loan portfolio increased 0.3% q-on-q and 3.6% year-on-year, continuing the low mid-shift [ph] started several quarters ago. Lending to small-and-medium sized enterprises, SMES, expanded 0.7% q-on-q and 4.5% year-on-year. In the quarter, the bank continued proactively decelerating loan growth in this segment. Growth has been focused in those SMEs clients that are also intensive in non-lending activities such as cash management which tend to be the most profitable SMEs. In the third quarter, the middle market segment loans increased 4.1% q-on-q and 9.85 year-on-year. Loan growth accelerate in this segment due to the increased activity among mid-sized exporters which are benefiting from the weaker peso. This segment also generated increasingly higher levels of business volumes in other areas such as cash management which has helped to drive the rise in client deposit. Total deposit increase 8.6% q-on-q and 8.8% year-on-year. The bank continue to focus on increasing its core deposit base as reflected in the 1.1 q-on-q and 8.9 year-on-year rise on non-interest bearing demand deposit. Simultaneously in the quarter, various institutional investors and large corporate clients increased their deposit with the bank given the high liquidity of the economy. This was reflected in the 13.1% q-on-q and 8.7% year-on-year increase in bank deposit in the third quarter. With the important change in the bank founding [ph] mix in the last few years, the bank is moving ahead in compliance with the Chilean regulators proposed new liquidity requirements. As of September 2014, the bank has 3.5 million clients. The bank achieved positive net client growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. The client base has grown 6.7% in this stretch which started at the end of the first Q of 2013 when the bank completed the development of the CRM and launched the Santander Select brand for high-income segment. Clients in the high-income segment increased 17% in the same period. The consolidation of our strategy is sustained growth in various products in which we have gained market share this year. Despite focusing growth among the middle-high and the high-income segments of the population, we have gained market share in consumer lending, credit loans and transactions and deposit since the beginning of the year. We have also increased our market share in processing [ph] mortgage loans in the same period. The transformation project is also resulting in a safer evolution of consumer loan asset quality which is a key cornerstone of our strategy to obtain higher margins net of provision. This is due to various initiatives the bank has been carrying out since 2011. Among them, the portfolio mix change focusing on loan growth in the middle to higher end of the consumer market, the improvement in risk models, the focus on growing via pre-approved loans and lastly, the revamping of the recollection process. These efforts are reflected in the sound evolution of impaired consumer loans, that is consumer non-performing loans plus renegotiated consumer loans, especially when compared to our competitors. Since June 2012, impaired consumer loans in the Chilean banking system excluding Santander Chile have increased 52% compared to a decrease of 14% in [indiscernible]. As a result of this improvement in impaired consumer loans, the expected loss of our consumer loan portfolio has been reduced considerably. Accordingly, in the third quarter, the bank recalibrated its consumer loan risk model which resulted in a reduction in provision as required for the performing [ph] portion of this loan book. The bank also concluded the third quarter with a strong capital ratio. Our core capital ratio reached 10.6%, one of the highest levels on our main peers with a Basel I ratio of 13.7. The ultimate goal of strategy is to maximize the difference between our ROE and cost of equity. Today we have one of the best relations between core capital and ROE, cost-of-capital and ROE among our main local peers. And we have the highest credit ratings in the banking world. Now we will explain the evolution of our results which as mentioned were lower on a q-on-q basis mainly as a result of the lower quarterly inflation rate. However, the bank solid commercial and client profitability trend observed in that year were sustained in the quarter. In the third Q of ‘14, net interest income decreased 14.1% q-on-q and increased 4% year-on-year mainly as mentioned because of the lower quarter inflation rate. The net interest margin, NIM, in 3Q ‘14 reached 5% compared to 6% in the second quarter and 5.3% in the third quarter of 2013. In order to improve the exponential margin, we have divided the analysis of net interest income between non-client interest income which include someone addressing [ph] the impact of inflation in our results and client interest income which gives a clear picture of the bank’s recurring net interest income and margin. As mentioned, the reduction of non-client net interest income was due to the lower quarterly inflation rate. The bank has more assets than they really is linked to inflation. And as a result, margins have a positive extensibility to variations to inflation. In the third quarter, the variation of Unidad de Fomento, UF, an inflation index currency unit was 0.6% compared to 1.8% in the second quarter of ‘14 and 1% in the third quarter of ‘13. The gap between assets and liabilities index to the U.S. average approximately CLP4.1 trillion, that is around US$6.8 billion. This implied that for every 100 basis points change in inflation, our net interest income increases or decreases by CLP41 billion, all other factors equal. The existence of risk guard is mainly due to the bank’s lending and funding activity. We expect U.S. inflation in the fourth quarter to be approximately 1% to 1.1% favoring our non-client interest income. Concerning client, net interest income, it increased 1.7% q-on-q and 6.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven mainly by loan growth. Client net interest margins reached 5% in the third quarter compared to 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.6% in the third quarter of ‘13. Client yields has remained relatively stable since the third quarter of last year, despite the change in loan mix to less risky segments and the negative impact of reductions in the maximum rate. This has been made mainly due to the better funding mix and writing long [ph] spreads in 2014. For the remainder of 2014 and 2015, client net interest income should increase in line with loan growth as client margins are expected to remain relatively stable. Income is relatively beginning to rebound in line with expansion of banks’ clients and product base. Net fee and commission income increased 0.4% q-on-q and 2.1% year-on-year. The income from our business segment was up 4.4% q-on-q and 12% year-on-year. Notable was the 4.4% q-on-q and 11% year-on-year increasing [indiscernible] from individuals and the 4.7 q-on-q on the 31% year-on-year increase in SMEs. These positive figures were partially offset by the decreasing collection fees that are negatively affected this year by the refund of insurance premiums for mortgage loans that are prepaid. In the third quarter of ‘14, the times total core revenue, that is net interest incomes, plus fee income was down 12.1 % q-on-q and increased 3.7% year-on-year. As mentioned, this reduction was mainly due to the lower inflation rate in the quarter. On the other hand, the bank’s core revenue from our business segment, a clear metric of the bank’s recurring revenue generation was up 2.2% q-on-q and 7.5% year-on-year. The bank’s core revenue from business segment has increased for five consecutive quarters boosted by our transformation project. Acid quality [ph] was stable in the quarter. The banks total non-performing loans ratio remained stable at 2.9% q-on-q and decreased from 3% in the third quarter of ‘13. Total coverage of non-performing loans in 3Q reached 104.1% compared to a 102.3% in the second quarter of ‘14 and 94.8% in 3Q ‘13. Provisions for loan losses increased 18.2% q-on-q and 3% year-on-year in the third quarter. In this period, the bank recognized a one-time provision expense of CLP8,578 million from the record inflation and improvement of his provisioning models for loans analyze in a group base. This recalibration was performed in order to proactively increase average of non-performing loans in the SME segment. This explains a big part of the 28.1% q-on-q and the 11.8% year-on-year in gross provisions. At the same time chart jobs [ph] remain stable in the quarter increasing 0.2% q-on-q and decreasing 8.7% year-on-year. As a result, the cost of trading, that is, provisional expenses analyzed divided by total loans reached 1.8% in the third Q of ‘14. The bank total net provisional expense has decreased 4.1% in the first nine months of this year compared to the similar period of 2013. And the cost of credited 1.53% in the first nine of this year compared to 1.89 in the same year, in the same period in 2013. Operating expenses excluding impairment charges decreased 6.4% q-on-q and increased 0.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. This period, the bank recognized a one-time impairment of intangibles of CLP36,577 million. This impairment was mainly of software. In the past few years, the bank has invested significantly in new systems and software. Software was usually amortized in two years but some older ones that were not contributing to the bank profit and loss statement were fully chart off – in the third quarter. This will imply lower depreciation and amortization expenses of around CLP13 billion in 2015 and CLP5 billion in 2016 as well as a lower depreciation charge in the 4Q of this year. Excluding the chart for impairment, the efficiency ratio reached 36.7% in the first nine months of 2014. Personal salaries and expenses decreased 0.4% q-on-q and increased 10.1% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase in personal expenses was mainly due to the impact of a higher inflation rate over salary which are index inflation and variable incentives due to the solid client activity. Headcount increased 1% q-on-q and decreased 1.1% year-on-year to 11,493 persons in total. Administrative expenses increased 1.7% q-on-q and 7.9% year-on-year. This was mainly due to greater business activity that has resulted in high system and data processing cost; and second, the effects of a high inflation rate over cost because of index inflation like rent expense. In the quarter, the bank opened three Santander Select branches and closed six financial branches as far as ongoing process of seeking greater efficiencies in the brick-and-mortar distribution network. The bank remains focused on growing through complimentary channels such as the Internet, [indiscernible] banking and mobile banking. Apart from the one-time impairment charge and provision expense I just mentioned, the bank also recognized an additional one-time unaudited [ph] non-cash income of CLP35,411 million in the line item income tax expense during September 2014. Chile’s new tax bill became effective in the third quarter and the bank had to recalculate if it’s deferred asset and liabilities using the new higher statutory rates including that bill. All of the above has resulted [ph] in a fairly solid 2014. Our year-to-date earnings was up 53.6% to CLP412 billion with an ROE of 22.8% and an efficiency ratio of 36.7%. In the quarter, net income was up 8.9% year-on-year and drove [ph] 31% q-on-q. I’ll be happy to explain through this presentation core business trends remain robust and for these reasons we have no significant change to our outlook for the 4Q for [ph] the year 2015. As we have mentioned in previous earnings calls, the bank has been targeting and is currently reaching an ROE between 19% and 20% with a normalized inflation of 3%. The bank average ROE in the past eight quarters assuming at 3% annual inflation rate is 19.3%. In 3Q ‘14, the bank’s ROE excluding one-time and under a normal inflation scenario would have been also within the 19%, 20% range. To conclude, 2014 has been a solid year in many aspects. The most important has been the growing client and commercial trend that reflect the success of the transformation initiative starting a few years ago. Loan growth has been solid in the segments we’re targeting and client margins have remained stable despite the essential [ph] low mix. The fund being mixed continues to improve and we have among the lowest cost of fund in the Chilean financial industry given our strong core deposit market share. The bank has also robust core capital ratios and liquidity levels. The larger client base is helping us to assume growth of our fee base and we are also gaining market share in many products and services such as credit cards, loans and transactions, consumer installment loans, mortgage loans, deposit and checking accounts. Asset quality is stable and the banks proactively tighten coverage ratio of SME’s non-performing loans in order to avoid surprises if your economy does not rebound as quickly as expected in 2015. The banks will [indiscernible] and efficiency levels are also improving. We are increasing our loan book by 8%, 9% a year with no increase in branches or headcount. We accelerate the amortization of obsolete software [ph] in the quarter and these will produce cost savings in future quarters. In summary, high-quality recurrent result in the year and quarter in which we are showing solid core business trends while preparing the bank for another sound year in 2015. At this time, we will gladly answer any questions you might have.