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Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 4, 2014

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Transcript

Raimundo Monge

Management

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, once again, welcome to Banco Santander-Chile Third Quarter 2014 Results Conference call. This is Raimundo Monge, Director of Strategic Planning. I am joined today by Robert Moreno, Manager of Investor Relations. Thank you for attending today’s conference call in which we will discuss our performance in the third quarter of ‘14. Following the webcast presentation, we will be happy to answer any questions you might have. Before we go in to more detail regarding our results, we will briefly give our latest update on the economic outlook for the Chilean economy in 2014 and 2015. As forecasted, the economy continues to decelerate in the third quarter, mainly due to the lower-than-expected investment and consumption levels. 2014, we are anticipating GDP to grow around 1.9% with internal demand that is consumption plus investment expanding 1.2%. We expect the economy to rebound in 2015 with a GDP growth of around 3.2% and internal demand expanding 3.4%. The inflation rate measured by the variation of the U.S. and inflation linked unit and the most relevant indicator for banks should rise to 4.6% this year due to depreciation of the peso and the effects on prices of some goods [ph] as a result of the new tax law. We expect inflation to return into a more normal level of around 3% in 2015. Given this outlook, the Central Bank continue to cut interest rate in the quarter to 3%. We expect the central bank to pause its interest rate cuts as further reduction could depreciate the peso a fuel greater inflation. The quick [ph] rebound of the economy should be driven by various factors. First of all, the outlook of growth of Chile’s main trading partners especially the U.S. continues to strengthen. In fact, the weighted average GDP growth…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the lines are open. (Operator instructions) Our first question here comes through from José Barria with Bank of America. José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: Good morning Raimundo and team. I have two questions. The first one is with regards to provision in the quarter. I understand what you explained with the chart you took for the recalibration of the SME portfolio, but when I look at the provision per segment, it looks like on commercial loans you had a huge increase from about CLP39 billion in the prior quarter to CLP86 billion; and that’s not really explained by this CLP8.5 billion recalibration that you did or charge that you took for the recalibration. And then, on consumer loans there is a big decrease. So, I’m sorry, I just don’t understand exactly what’s happening here and I want to get an idea of sort of what the right numbers I should be looking at in terms of a recurring number of provisions should be. If you can start there and then I’ll ask the second question.

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, what happened is that we previously recalibrated the consumer models and the SMEs models. In one case, as we pointed, we reduced the coverage and the provisions for that specific segment. And in the case of SME we also did. The net, the combined effect of the two was the CLP8.5 billion result [ph]. It was a combination of our release on the consumer side and increase in the coverage and the SME side. And that’s why the net of the two was the CLP8.5 billion that we highlighted the – José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: Okay.

Raimundo Monge

Management

With the two simultaneously. José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: I see. Okay, that’s clear now. And then, going forward, what I’m thinking about what we should be expecting for provision to average [ph] loans, it sounds like you’re getting more conservative on the SME segment or on the commercial segment, but on the consumer segment, things have shaped up well given some of the changes, adjustments that you’ve made in prior quarters. What should we be thinking about in terms of provisions to average [ph] loan as we look ahead?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, well, if you take the historical trends [ph], we have been improving overall cost of credit or provisions over loans. We think that that trend – although the headwinds that we’re seeing specifically in the SMEs and the rest of the segment we haven’t seen up so far, no relevant indicators of asset quality [indiscernible]. And that make us believe that this year we have a 1.6 cost of credit ratio for the three first quarters as a whole, we think that – we come and think that for the last quarter and the year 2015, because, in the consumer side where most of the provisions and chart notes [ph] are happening, the vintages [ph] there, you measure that segment through vintages [ph]. The vintages are [indiscernible] that we have room to improve even though the macro outlook would be – or has been this year a little bit weaker than what we were expecting. So 1.6, around 1.6 as an average for the next year and the remaining of this year is a good advice. José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: Perfect. Okay, thank you. And then, the second question is if you could give us an update on the plans to implement Basel III in Chile and I understand that the regulators are proposing a change to the banking law which is necessary to enact or sort of to have you guys report under Basel III. What’s the latest and when do you think this happens and what is the potential impact on your capital ratio?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes. The superintendents of banks [ph] as we mentioned recently that the hearing or the superintendency [ph] and the Ministry of Finance are in the final stages of drafting a proposal. Here, the biggest pending issue is the capital ratios, yeah, because the liquidity elements of Basel III have already been proposed to the different market participant by the central bank at the beginning of the year and we haven’t seen nothing that is surprising there. So that, the pending part is capital ratios in the early commentaries that we have heard is that the system is well-prepared to move to Basel III because in Chile the capital allocation for credit risk purposes is higher than the average in other geographies. And therefore, you could release part of that capital to redeploy it for operational risk and market risk which are the new categories coming in the Basel III implementation. So, the other commentary is that apparently no single entity will be in need of or in a desperate need of further capital, yes. And given the fact that it will be phased in three or four years, we think that most of the system will pass the first relatively – in a relatively straight forward way. So in terms of liquidity for example, depending on how – which elements or which securities are qualified at high graded [indiscernible] you should see some changes in prices or – but you will [ph] speak in especially the larger banks have a strong presence in core deposit. In our case, we calculate a core deposit market tier of around 21%. And by opposition, a market tier institutional money below 10%, yes. We did the same as we said for the larger banks. So it’s a process that will take many years and we don’t see any need to rush things because the Chilean market has been essentially very well in the different ups and downs of the different cycles [ph]. So it’s good news because it’s an international standard. We at Santander believe we are a little bit ahead of the rest and we have some shadow [ph] calculations that make us very comfortable about the process. José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: Okay. And when you say comfortable, basically alluding that you don’t think that there would be a need for capital at least in your operations?

Raimundo Monge

Management

No, in our case, very likely and given that we have the highest core capital ratio under Basel I is very likely that if it’s pressing for us it would be very much pressing for the rest, but we don’t foresee that scenario [ph]. José Barria – Bank of America / Merrill Lynch: I see. Okay. Thank you very much, Raimundo.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Thiago Batista with ITAU. Thiago Batista – ITAU BBA Securities: Yes. Hi – actually two – hello – on [indiscernible] this quarter – do believe –

Raimundo Monge

Management

I’m not hearing you very clearly. Thiago Batista – ITAU BBA Securities: Hello? Now is better?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, it’s better. Thiago Batista – ITAU BBA Securities: Yes. Thanks and sorry for that. How much do you believe –

Operator

Operator

Should we take the next question?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, I guess. I don’t hear him very well.

Operator

Operator

Yes, I can’t hear him either. So our next question is from Chris Doug Otto [ph] with JP Morgan. Saul Martínez – JP Morgan: Hi, this is Saul actually from JP Morgan, Saul Martinez. Can you guys hear me?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, Saul, very clearly. Saul Martínez – JP Morgan: Okay. Okay, great. Just sort of following up on the earlier question, you guys gave some metrics by business segment. The results obviously in the SME segment looked pretty dreadful this quarter and regardless of the – perhaps because of the recalibration, but clearly there are some deterioration there. Can you give us a sense, especially since this has been a business you guys have been focused on, it has been a core segment, it does seem like you guys are more conservative, whether there is additional risk that you will see more deterioration in this business line and that you’re exposed to this business line really dampening your results overall? So I’m curious what the outlook is especially given the economic backdrop for what you’re seeing in SMEs. And secondly, just, I think the earlier question I was going to ask you about fees. I’ll go ahead and ask you as well. You’ve seen some stability in fees. What are you – after a very difficult few years because of regulatory issues and whatnot – have we – I suppose you think we’ve seen the bottom as client growth has materialized. But where do you see fee growth sort of tracking at over the next year or two? Do you see high-single digit? How do you see fee growth evolving over the next couple of years?

Raimundo Monge

Management

Okay, in terms of SME, as you correctly [ph] point, this quarter looks essentially low, the contribution because of the one-time recalibration of the model and therefore the amount provision has jumped very materially, yes. But that is, we perceive as a sense of precautionary measure to be fully protected even if the economy doesn’t rebound as most of the market is expecting. Contrary to that, if you see the gross revenues are growing close to 7% which is relatively sound and at the same time the absolute profitability, the ROE here we’re getting done on [ph] – excluding this one-timer has consistently been ahead of 20%. So it’s a segment that we want to be and it’s very profitable. Simply that because of the weaker operation and environment we have taken actions to be hopefully fully protected even in the event of the economy driving more than what the market is expecting. So it’s a segment – the point there is that they are different realities. The SME universe is very broad and what we have been preaching is similar to what we have been doing in the individuals universe, moving away from the relatively low end of the market and much more into the upper end of the market. Here what we’re doing is moving away from those companies that just borrow money and moving to those companies that apart from borrowing money give us other sort of compensations, either fee income, fee-based income, Treasury type of activity and especially cash management. And that’s why as you see, the fee income, there is a big increase although from a relatively long base [ph] on a year-on-year base and on a quarter-on-quarter base. So just to wrap it, it’s a segment we want to be present. It’s simply that…

Raimundo Monge

Management

Which one? The gross?

Robert Moreno

Analyst

The gross in SMEs was CLP44 billion.

Raimundo Monge

Management

The gross in SMEs was CLP44 billion.

Robert Moreno

Analyst

And the gross in consumer –

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes?

Robert Moreno

Analyst

CLP36 billion

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, roughly, the gross constitution in SMEs was CLP44 billion and the release in the consumer side was grossly CLP36 billion [indiscernible]. Saul Martínez – JP Morgan: Okay, that sounds great. Thank you very much. That’s very helpful.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Tito Labarta with Deutsche Bank. Tito Labarta – Deutsche Bank: Hi, good morning, Raimundo and Robert. Thanks for the call. My question just in terms of your profitability kind of longer term, you mentioned you have excluded inflation or more normalized levels of inflation around 3%, you expect ROEs of around 19% to 20%. Is that kind of what we should expect going forward given the kind of the slowdown we’ve seen in Chile? Do you think there could be even some more downside to that? I just want to get a sense of what you’re thinking long term in terms of your ability to sustain your ROE at around 20% or so. Thank you.

Raimundo Monge

Management

Yes, thanks, Tito. No, I would say that our medium-term goal is to maintain our stated ROE between 19% and 20% as we have done in the last eight quarters or so. The effect of inflation actually, if you calculate it, by using a normalized inflation or headline inflation test to counsel in a seven, eight quarters moving average. Because a piece of research is that actually product – our results excluding the effect of inflation and, I mean, we’ve basically proven that, yes. And therefore, inflation is really relevant for the very short term results, yeah. But for the medium-term results for, say, one year or two or one year and a half results, explain very little [ph], yes. And that’s why depending on your planning horizon, inflation is very relevant element or completely relevant if you are looking for a medium to long-term. So that’s why in our case, we are hopefully managing the bank for the medium to long-term, inflation is not a value creation. We create value with clients, by field operations. And that’s why we think that in the medium-terms perspective, ROE is 19% to 20% can be achieved. That means that we really did to some extent absorbing the higher tax rates that we will have to pay going forward by means of increasing probability and by means of fully getting the push of our new tool; the ones that are linked to the transformation project. And that’s why, if not for that, our pretax income and/or pretax ROEs, could have been rising in time simply that because taxes are going to be rising in the next three, four years. We expect ROE to be 19%, 20%. These are a challenge but we think that we have the tools to deliver that. Tito Labarta – Deutsche Bank: Okay, great. So the 19% to 20% also includes the impact of the tax reform exercise, you think you can fill the same net level?

Raimundo Monge

Management

That is the challenge we have said. Tito Labarta – Deutsche Bank: Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Okay. And we have no other questions.