Massimiliano Chiara
Analyst · Stifel
Can you hear me now? Okay. I apologize. We have some connection issues connecting here from Italy. So I would like to pick up from Slide 10. So thank you, Vince, and hello, everyone, joining us on the call today. Our first quarter results reflect modest reported growth, stronger underlying momentum at constant currency and outcomes broadly in line with our expectations for the quarter, demonstrating the resilience of our portfolio and the effectiveness of our operating focus on disciplined cost management, especially as we continue to invest in long-term strategic initiatives. First quarter revenue of $587 million increased 1% as reported. More importantly, growth at constant currency and before noncash service revenue amortization, which is about $50 million higher per quarter with the start of the new lotto concession was 3% or 5% net of the U.K. transition. As a reminder, the U.K. transition started in August 2025. So we have 1 full quarter plus 1 month left to anniversary the transition in year-to-year comparisons. As for the components of reported revenue growth, instant ticket and draw wager-based revenue was in line with the prior year at constant currency as strong more than 3% Italy same-store sales growth and favorable mix in the U.S. was offset by the impact of the U.K. transition. Other service revenue increased 14%, primarily on LMA dynamics. There are 2 drivers at play. The first is higher pass-through revenue, which has no profit associated with it. The second is a lower shortfall accrual in Q1 '26 compared to the prior year period. This outcome differed from our expectations. Initially, we were expecting a breakeven LMA outcome in the quarter. Instead, we booked a $10 million shortfall, specifically associated with the New Jersey LMA due to the combination of 2 factors affecting the New Jersey incentive calculation, a constant increase in the contractual annual net income target, which was known and since the large -- the last large jackpot in late December '25, Powerball hit 2x at or below $250 million. This phenomenon, in addition to the continued subdued Mega Million performance in the period, prevented any large jackpot formation in Q1. Since Powerball has also hit multiple times at very low levels to date in Q2, we are currently trending towards incurring a similar LMA shortfall in New Jersey in the second quarter as there is not enough time left in the period to develop a jackpot above $700 million, the level at which we tend to see jackpot sales inflect. This results in an approximate $20 million New Jersey shortfall for the first half of 2026, which is in line with the prior year and represents the maximum cat penalty in this contract fiscal year. Our team has developed several strategies to help mitigate the New Jersey LMA jackpot sensitivity going forward. One is improved payout on new instant ticket games, which is already driving stronger sales in March and April. Another is the increased deployment of self-service vending machines, which have delivered immediate sales lift. Outside of the New Jersey LMA contract, modest jackpot activity did not have a meaningful impact to our sales, demonstrating its limited exposure in the overall business. Moving now to our very resilient profit performance. We delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $287 million in the first quarter, a 15% increase as reported and up 5% at constant currency with a reported EBITDA margin of nearly 49%. The increased upfront license fee amortization artificially bolstered the EBITDA margin, which would have been approximately 42% in Q1 '26, and about 40% last year, excluding that item. Contributors to the strong profit growth included high flow-through of strong Italy same-store sales growth, the reduced LMA shortfall, continued progress on our Optima cost savings initiatives and certain expense recoveries. Partial offsets to growth were the U.K. transition, human capital investments tied to retention, execution and long-term value and significant investment in growth initiatives during the quarter. In fact, approximately $20 million of the year's $50 million investment spend was incurred in Q1. We also experienced inflationary pressures impacting postage and freight and other costs. In addition, we saw a nice year-over-year improvement in income from operations driven by 3 main items: the adjusted EBITDA growth just mentioned, FX, which is a noncash positive impact from a change in the euro-dollar exchange rate on debt balances at the parent company and a lower tax provision resulting from various strategic actions we have taken to lower our effective tax rate in the last 2 years. For the full year 2026, we currently expect an effective tax rate in the high 30% range compared to 55% in the prior year and heading closer to our normalized rate in the mid- to low 30s. We expect full year '26 cash taxes in the range of around $150 million versus $220 million in the prior year period. First quarter cash from operations of $165 million was in line with our expectations and reflect an over $50 million negative impact from timing of working capital items, primarily reflected to the day of the week that the quarter ended on in Italy and the associated collection cycle. While this tracks behind the full year run rate, the timing impacts are expected to reverse in the second quarter. And we are reaffirming our expectations for full year 2026 cash generation. Capital expenditures totaled $110 million with about 2/3 of the investments related to the rollout of new terminals in Italy. We returned over $70 million to shareholders, including $30 million in share repurchases and a cash dividend of $42 million or $0.23 per share. Our LTM quarterly cash dividend yield is nearly 7%. While no payments were due on the Italy lotto upfront license fee in the quarter, I just want to remind you of the funding requirement. The first 2 installments totaling $926 million were paid in 2025 and the final installment of $1.67 billion was paid on April 24. While the full amount of the license fee is reported in cash from ops, Brightstar is only responsible for its 61.5% share with the balance funded by our minority partners. As a matter of fact, Brightstar balance sheet and credit profile are strong with net debt leverage of 2.4x. We expect leverage to peak around 3.5x midyear and anticipate that it will subsequently restart a more favorable trajectory thereafter. Total liquidity following the payment is around EUR 1.8 billion, providing substantial support for our capital allocation plans. In April, we successfully refinanced our revolving credit facility, moving its new maturity date to March 2031, with improved terms and subsequently fully repaid the EUR 200 million outstanding principal amount due under the euro-denominated term loan due 2027. We have a sound profile on our debt with no near-term maturities and very competitive terms on our senior note. Turning now to our outlook. Second quarter revenue is expected to be below the prior year, primarily due to higher service revenue amortization. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter is currently expected to be modestly below the prior year as underlying growth in the business and continued cost discipline is more than offset by the impact of the U.K. transition and the likelihood of a higher New Jersey LMA shortfall in addition to investments in growth initiatives. We are reaffirming our full year 2026 revenue, profit and cash flow outlook. As Vince outlined, we are executing on many initiatives to drive accelerated revenue and profit growth in the second half of the year and beyond. We believe that diversity mitigates the risk associated with any single area of focus as our Q1 clearly demonstrated. In addition, our LTM sales and adjusted EBITDA performance, coupled with the proven resilience of lottery in the face of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty gives us confidence we can deliver on our financial target for the current year. Now we'd like to open the call for your questions.