Earnings Labs

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 2, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Dutch Bros Fourth Quarter 2021 Conference Call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Paddy Warren, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Sir, you may begin.

Paddy Warren

Analyst

Good afternoon and welcome. I'm joined today by Joth Ricci, president and CEO; and Charley Jemley, CFO. We issued our earnings press releases for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2021, after the market closed today, and we will file our 10-K in the upcoming days. We have also posted our earnings press release and a supplement information deck on our investor relations website and investors@dutchbros.com and will post our 10-K there as well when it is released. A recording of today's call will be available on our website immediately following this call. Please be aware that all statements in our prepared remarks and responses to your questions other than those historical facts, including statements regarding our future results of operations or financial conditions, business strategy and plans, and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All such forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, there are not guarantees of performance, and are expressly qualified in their entirety by cautionary statements. The forward-looking statements made are of as today's date, and we undertake no obligation to update them to reflect events or circumstances after today, which will reflect new information, actual results, revised expectations or the occurrence of unanticipated events, except for as required by law. We may not actually achieve the plan, intentions, or expectations disclosed in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance upon our forward-looking statements. For more details, please refer to our earnings press release and to the risk factors in our other SEC filings, particularly the risk factors described in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 31, 2021 filed with the SEC on November 12, 2021 and then our 10-K for the year ended 2021 that will be filed in the upcoming days. Finally, while we have prepared our consolidated financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles of the United States, we will also reference non-GAAP financial measures today, which can be useful in evaluating our core operating performance. However, these non-GAAP financial measures, which may be different than similarly titled measures used by other companies, and are not substitutes for measures that are prepared under generally accounting -- generally accepted accounting principles. Rather, they are presented to enhance investors' overall understanding of our financial performance but should not be considered a substitute for or superior to the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. Investors should therefore review the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP results contained in our earnings press release and not to rely on any single financial measure to evaluate our business. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Joth.

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Thank you, Paddy. And good afternoon and welcome everyone. We appreciate your interest in Dutch Bros. Let me begin by some opening remarks on our 2021 performance and then discuss how well positioned we are for the future. Charlie will then review the important specifics of our financial results and provide guidance for 2022. I will conclude with some final thoughts before turning the call over to Q&A. Our first section is shop development, 2021 was a record year for Dutch Bros on many levels. Of course, we completed a successful IPO. But equally important we opened 98 shops systemwide of which 82 were company operated, surpassing our previously provided guidance of 92 systemwide shops. In the process. We also entered three new states Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. The magnitude of our new shop openings along with our continued expansion into new markets, who has stood the test in the team delivered. We also handled the faster pace of new openings very well and these units are performing at a very high level. In the fourth quarter new shop development was the highest on record for Dutch Bros. We opened 35 new shops, including 30 company-operated shops. In December, we opened a record 23 shops. On one December 3, we open six locations in six different states, demonstrating our capacity to manage simultaneous development across multiple markets. Also of note you reopened eight more shops on the last weekend of the year. Through our pre- opening programs, we continue to invest in the success of each new shop, especially as we enter new markets. We send a dedicated opening team to instill our distinctive culture of speed, quality and service. And in the long run, this investment pays for itself in spades. When shops open late in the quarter, they…

Charley Jemley

Analyst

Thanks, Joth. As Joth highlighted, we're off to a very good start as a public company and we enter 2022 with good momentum across the business. Looking inside 2021's financial performance and looking forward into 2022, it's important to reflect on the overall investment thesis and map our outcomes against that frame of reference. In addition to our earnings release, there is a presentation that outlines our results posted on our Investor Relations website that contains supplemental information in details. As a people first growth company one of our key objectives is to expand the brand and give our people across the system new opportunities. This is going very well and even better than we anticipated entering 2021. Let's get to the specifics of new shop growth. Our objectives in the near term were to grow shop count by 20% annually, and to add new shops that mature with average unit volumes at least as high as our system average. At the end of the fourth quarter we had 271 company-operated shops, nearly 50% more than we had at the end of 2020. Our overall system shop count was 538 shops or 22% more than we had at the end of 2020. Ahead of that objective and our guidance is 20 plus percent growth again in 2022. The second objective was to add shops that meet or exceed our system AUV, we continue to see new shops performing higher than our system averages even as we work diligently to infill existing markets and quickly follow on in new markets. Shops opened in 2020 are averaging $2.1 million in average unit volumes. And shops open during 2021 are trending above this figure as well. Take for example our College Station, Bryan Market where we made our Texas entry just over a…

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Thanks Charlie. We have all the building blocks in place to ensure Dutch Bros remains a successful and enduring company. A powerful authentic brand that shares the love, strong people systems that drive company culture and fuel our shop growth. A highly engaged customer following, customizable and uniquely curated beverages, highly consistent and highly attractive unit level economics, and affordable model that is successful across geographies, and an engaged co-founder with an experienced leadership team. Six months after our initial public offering, we are staying true to our core thesis. In many respects, we were ahead of the game with more revenue more profit and more stores than what we expected. In this time, we've hired more people and facilitated tremendous growth opportunities for our employees as well. We've treated our customers well. And we're doing our part to be good partners in our communities. Thank you again for your interest in Dutch Bros. And now we'd be happy to take questions. Operator, please open the lines.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question is from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

John Ivankoe

Analyst

Two questions, if I may, I'd like to actually start on the CapEx number. I mean, that is a pretty substantial change, at least relative to what we had in the model going to $175 million to 200 million. So I guess two things. First, could you repeat how much is going to that roasting facility, which I guess would be isolated to ‘22 and ‘23? But secondly as the business shifts from build to suit to ground lease how much are you expecting to spend per ground lease unit? And how much lower occupancy costs or lack of landlord financing do you think actually could benefit the P&L as you bear more of that upfront cost? And I have a follow up.

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Yes, so in 2022, we expect about $20 million of capital related to the roasting facility that will open in 2023. In terms of the ground lease, if you recall from our IPO work, we said that a ground lease was our capital, our cash about $1.3 million to $1.4 million. A build to suit is about $500,000 cash contribution, if you take that differential, essentially time 7%. That's the different rent, that's the lower rent you'll pay if you select the ground lease.

John Ivankoe

Analyst

Yes, and doing you still and even if I were to back out that $20 million for the roasting facility on 105 company units. I mean, it still does feel a little bit high in CapEx, I mean, is there anything else going on the corporate basis, perhaps in remodels that the system may benefit from as part of that CapEx or is it you are once again frontloading, fiscal ‘23 openings, perhaps in some of that fiscal ‘22 capital budget?

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Yes, you're on it, John, that's we do have some frontloads spend as we move in and keep ramping up into ‘23. Some pre spend, if you look – if your pipelines, 65% to 70% ground lease, and you start to do that shift versus where we work for the full year ‘21, you use up more cash, we'll get a little more active on upgrading units, some things that we had just delayed, with all the COVID disruption, we just put things on the back burner. So we'll go ahead and take care of that now and throughout 2022. Go ahead.

John Ivankoe

Analyst

No please.

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Well, I think also coming out of IPO, we had some more cash expenses related to taxes and the equity piece of employee compensation that we had to front as well. So we left ‘21 with a little bit more out on our line than we would have expected.

John Ivankoe

Analyst

Okay, and as we think about the ‘22 and ‘23 development I mean is there any rethinking of the Dutch Bros box of the future, maybe including a little bit more automation, including fountains, for example maybe just kind of figuring out how to be more efficient perhaps with some of your best beverage preparation, waste consistency, what have you, is that something that's now contemplated in your capital budget for ‘22.

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Well, I know that, John, we're in the middle of testing several operational improvements inside of our stands, that if go well in testing phase that we could see start to roll out things like fountain systems or things like tap systems for cold brew, which we haven't placed in several locations already. So to put a specific number on that I couldn't give it to you right now. But there are several operational improvements underway inside the stand.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Sara Senatore with Bank of America.

Sara Senatore

Analyst · Bank of America.

Great. Thank you very much. Just, I guess, a clarification, and then a question on the loyalty programs. So first on the comp for the quarter, I think initially, you had expected that to be mid-single digits as well and end up being quite a bit better than that. Was that just kind of the upside from the success of the seasonal? Your beverages and the mix shift or I guess I'm just trying to understand to what extent, for example, this guidance for 1Q might prove conservative and so far it's sort of similar what you gave us about the quarter that just passed. So that's the first question. And then the second question is on the loyalty members, you mentioned that they're spending about 3% more, but is, are you also seeing higher frequency, just trying to get a sense of whether overall spend might be even bigger than that, when we've seen other loyalty programs, I think the initial lift has been pretty meaningful. So trying to gauge kind of what is still the opportunity, or maybe how your loyalty program might differ from some of the other that we've seen, thanks.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Bank of America.

Thanks Sra. A couple things on the promotional side of fourth quarter comps, as we did, as I mentioned, we executed a holiday program that was as strong and in really surpassed all of our expectations related to what we did in kind of a December period. And then kind of what we executed in the fall and how our team did that. I think it surprised all of us and how well that was received by the customer. And the response that we had, we've also been working on premiumization of some of our products and utilizing the increased popularity of our soft shop top business, and other ways to premiumize our business. So we just I think our team did a good job of pulling together just incremental business during that time. We also, I believe that we received a nice halo effect from the IPO in the news, in the fourth quarter, we had more mentioned of Dutch Bros across all regions of the country than we'd ever seen in the past. And I believe that there was an impact on that in a very positive way to our business. As it relates to reward, do you want to handle that?

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes, I think, so you -- couple things there on loyalty spend. When you look at how much more a loyalty member spends in our program versus a non-loyal number, it looks a little like, we have very loyal group of consumers across the business, whether they're part of the rewards program or not. But we think that the biggest thing that can happen is if you look at our top tier frequent customers, and you drop down to the next tier, there's a pretty significant difference in frequency. And so we feel like as we can do some effective things to get that frequency up in that next quintile or quartile of customers on down that's perhaps the biggest thing we can do. We also believe that stored value is a big idea, not only operationally but just to create attachment and engagement loyalty, and we're really at the infancy stages of getting customers to load money on their program.

Operator

Operator

Your next question from the line of up Andy Barish with Jefferies.

Andy Barish

Analyst · Jefferies.

Hey, guys, let me do the follow up. First, just on that last comment, Charlie, what's what percentage of rewards members roughly have pre-loaded funds at this point and are there any specific programs to drive that higher?

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Jefferies.

So about 20% to 25% of our tickets from rewards members include stored value, a stored value activity. And I can't tell you about a specific promo that's coming, but we are working on ways to either incent them with additional points if they were load or some additional reason to try to get that attachment up.

Andy Barish

Analyst · Jefferies.

Got it, and then can you just give us I guess a little bit more color on just sort of the EBITDA, I guess the absolute dollar is building up, I mean, it sounds like the first half especially the first quarter will be a little bit lower than if you just straight line your $110 million, $115 million, or $115 million to $120 million guidance. Sorry about that. So just trying to kind of get a sense of the cadence and how we should think of the discounting impact as we move into 2022, again, understanding that it is kind of a moving target.

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Jefferies.

Well, discounting, once we got past this fourth quarter in the first quarter, we will roll over the launch from ‘21. So we'll have had a high level of promotional and discount expenses in quarter one in ‘21 will lap that in quarter two of ‘22. So we'll get a little bit of favorability from that lap, the biggest thing going on is, we're going to have a fair degree of pre-opening expenses in the first half of this year, more than 50% of those expenses will come in the first half because of this dynamic of these first-in shops. So we average about $125,000 per store in pre-opening, first shops can spend over 200, and then it falls off after that. So the way our pipelines shaping up, is we're going to have a lot more a fair degree more pre-opening costs in the first two quarters of ‘22. And that's going to create a timing drag on earnings until we reach the second half and we kind of get that back. Also note we're opening more stores than probably you originally would have modeled. And so we're going to have more pre-opening expenses in aggregate related to that as well.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of David Tarantino with Baird.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Baird.

Hi, good afternoon. My question is on the shop level EBITDA margins. And, Charlie, I just want to get your thoughts on what you think the right long-term margin of the business is, and whether that's changed in your mind or not. And then if you think about all the details you gave us for the fourth quarter and some of the non-recurring impact, I guess what's the bridge to get to whatever your long-term assumption is on shop and EBITDA?

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Baird.

That’s a great question, David, I would get you to reference. And it's hard because we just released this stuff is page 12, on the deck that we put together up on the website, and it does a bit of a bridge. And if you go over to the right hand side, you look on a trailing 12-month basis at our margins, and you see from contribution perspective, we reported 25.1% for the full year, that's got some preopening in it, we put that off to the right, we're not going to have -- expect to not have COVID costs if we do we will identify that. So if you look at that sort of cash margin, I'll call it in the upper 20s, including new stores. And if you were to take out the drag you get from new stores, because again, we're going faster and faster. And you were to sort of put that back in as well as the fact that we didn't have much of a price increase in ‘21. You get to that I'll call it 30% cash margin in the second year, a store is open and that ties right to our thesis. So as long as we feel like we can hold the line on investment costs, and we're doing just fine there. We can do these average unit volumes 10% plus versus the system average. And we get a 30% second year cash margin we have a really compelling investment thesis that's very much in sync with what we articulated back in the fall.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Baird.

Got it and then I guess you're always going to have new stores in the mix dragging that number down. So what do you think a good at the expected growth rate you have? What do you think a good steady state on a reported basis would look like? And I apologize, I don't have a good internet connection. So I can't download the slides right now. So it may be I have it in there but.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Baird.

Of course, yes. So if you just -- if you hit the brakes, right, which is kind of the way this slide is set up, if you hit the brakes, and you had no pre-opening costs, and then you had the stores mature and season out to their margin, you're probably looking 50 to 100 basis points of drag from just the margin of new stores that come in, right, either late in the quarter or partly through the year. So that's the way I would think about it is as we're -- since we're going this fast, if you just remove pre-opening, the immaturity drag is 50 to 100 basis points in the overall reported margin.

David Tarantino

Analyst · Baird.

Got it, that's very helpful. And then the last question, sorry, for the too many follow up there. But you mentioned the fairly modest price increase, and it is really modest relative to what we're seeing elsewhere. Are you contemplating adding more pricing to address some of the cost pressures in the business this year?

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Baird.

So we look typically in a normal timeframe, we're going to look at our pricing windows every six months, right in the fall before holiday in the spring, for summer. And so we're very mindful of that. I think we've been fortunate to not have a lot of inflation drag, both in ‘21. And frankly, moving into early ‘22. And so we haven't felt compelled we don't price to a margin. First of all, we want to price to what consumers are willing to pay. And so we're just honestly, we're flexible, and we're watching that closely. But we do with the mindset of the, our relative position in the market and the customer not to seek to a margin level. But we are feeling good as we enter ‘22 with the trajectory of our margins, given everything going on.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Jeff Bernstein with Barclays.

Jeff Bernstein

Analyst · Barclays.

Great, thank you very much. First question was just on the restaurant margin you were discussing earlier, as you mentioned, obviously, the big focus for investors because a lot of peers are facing more pressures, perhaps than you are, I was hoping you could maybe just share what you think, well, COGS and labor inflation might be in ‘22. And therefore, if you can give any kind of directional color, just because you gave so much granularity on the fourth quarter, what guidance might be for the first quarter of the full year ’22 on that restaurant operating margin line?

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, so we're fortunate that the two big costs, cost of goods and labor, we don't have any real significant upward momentum in the labor line. So we're starting halfway better than everybody else to begin with. And then secondly, we have a pretty simple pantry of goods. What we're really dealing with right now is freight and logistics costs going up. But we're able to do as we've shown in Q4, and the walk I gave you in COGS, we are really able to handle that pretty effectively. And we'll get a full quarter of the price impact from November in our Q1. In terms of guiding a specific margin for Q1, I'd prefer not to do that. It is a -- Q4 is the lowest seasonality, Q1 is the next lowest seasonality. And then we kind of get into Q2. But I just think from other than the discount rollover from a year-over-year perspective, we're just not feeling compression in margins. And the biggest thing for us is our labor costs are stable.

Jeff Bernstein

Analyst · Barclays.

Understood. And then the unit growth projection, obviously, the bump up impressive considering the environment we're looking into for ‘22. But I think you mentioned obviously not a real estate company. But do you have any concerns over or any pressures you're seeing related to supply chain or equipment or permitting delays? I would think that has to have some impact unless you have a pipeline much greater than the 125. And you're therefore factoring in some challenges from that perspective, just trying to get a sense for your level of confidence with that increase despite the headwinds your peers are referring to. Thank you.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Barclays.

Hey, Jeff, this is Joth. We absolutely have considered all those factors in guiding to the new number. So your hunch is right? And we certainly, are working on pipeline well into ‘23. So all of those factors have been included in the way that we've looked at the potential for our openings for this year, which is why we took the number up to 125.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Andrew Charles with Cowen.

Andrew Charles

Analyst · Cowen.

Great, thank you. You just mentioned the app remembers orders for the 60% of tenure utilized by the Dutch rewards program. I know it's early days, but can you talk to your philosophy on how to curate offers at this stage. And then as you look at couple years out, as you collect more data, data mining gets more sophisticated, what's the vision for how you plan to curate offers longer term. I know, for instance, on the mobile order side potentially firing in those orders or prepping those orders, if you will before customers can really get to the stores and start to try to get them in advance or at least scan at the point and have the ability to scan them at the point of order till they help accelerate, but just wanting to be a little bit more imaginative around where this could go longer term.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Cowen.

Yes, Andrew it’s Joth. As we discussed for 2021, our goal was to test as much as we could on variable offers. So for example one of the programs we ran in December was about having a new offer every day of the week for seven straight days and testing how customers responded to different point levels. So we could start to zeroing on what's our most effective promotional program that we can run. So we did everything from double points on a specific item to bonus points on a total order to get an extra sticker. Like how did that -- and then what we've done is we've tracked lift, we track traffic lift, we track sales for that day, and we really start to identify like what the impact was. Another key that we'll do is we'll do regional activations as well. So we have tested things like encouraging people to load, stored value, and in what that type of promotion offers. And then going back to that same customer group and encouraging them to spend. So how do those activations work and we've also tested those down to market levels, and in some cases down to micro market levels. So I think it's safe to say that we've run hundreds of tests over the course of 2022. And really starting to kind of compartmentalize and build a strategy for how we build the app, how we use it to grow sales, how we use it to effectively manage a dynamic pricing model. And encourage more develop amongst probably our mid and second tier users. So we can get more traffic out of that customer tier. But all in teams doing a great job of learning. And I think as we move forward, I think my goal would be is that we could activate a promotion at the single customer level. That could be a few years away. But I think that you're effective in building a customer relationship with one to one relationship.

Andrew Charles

Analyst · Cowen.

Okay, thanks, Joth. That's really helpful. And then Charlie, quick follow up, guidance for mid-single digit comps in 2022 very encouraging. I know you're guiding that level as well, for the first quarter just you are lacking the easiest comparison of the year in 1Q. So just curious, this guidance embed some level conservatism for the quarter or perhaps you can help us out just two thirds of the way through the first quarter that January maybe was a little bit more soft at Omicron, before bounding in February, just looking to better contextualize the guidance for 1Q.

Charley Jemley

Analyst · Cowen.

Yes, it was softer in January. It was better in February less outages. We're sitting ahead of the mid singles right now. We're like everybody don't know where the world's going to go over the next 30 days with all that’s going on. And so we're just a little tepid about how we look at things. It doesn't really move the needle much the biggest revenue driver is annualization in new stores and new stores getting added so it gets a lot of talk track and it is important to the underlying health of the business but it's really not that financially meaningful right now as fast as we're growing the top line. That's why we don't -- we try not to over think it.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Chris O'Cull with Stifel.

Chris O'Cull

Analyst

Thanks. Joth, I was hoping you could unpack the opportunity you are seeing in Southern California a bit more and why you think you're seeing such a strong consumer response relative to what you might have previously expected?

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Yes. As we've over the last year, as we made that move into Southern California, it's, some of it is just a people equation. And the fact is the density of people in the opportunities in that market as we looked at it we just as we've launched in Texas, and got into some bigger markets, and I've seen success in places like Phoenix, in Sacramento, in Denver with our larger cities, we just felt like the opportunity in Southern California was tremendous. Our plan is to stay in the suburbs of the major markets, our plan is not to go into Los Angeles or San Diego proper, but to stay in the outer skirts of those counties. We opened in really in Riverside County, and in Palm Springs to begin with, and have now started to kind of trickle in more, including some development that we have in San Diego County, in the second quarter. So I believe in our modeling, when we launched the IPO, we said the California was about 30% developed, and considering what we felt like the total opportunity was in that state. So while we have a very well developed market in Sacramento and continuing to grow new stores, as our franchisees, and in that market, we think that the Southern California opportunity really will make up the bulk of that 70% that was untapped in the state of California.

Chris O'Cull

Analyst

Okay, and then, I was hoping you could also provide any or talk about any initiatives you might, you guys might be working on this year to improve drive thru speed of service, just to help reduce the number of look and leave.

Joth Ricci

Analyst

Yes, well, now that we have a shop in Tennessee, that hits home, but the number one thing we can do is improve drive thru speed and service. And but we want to be careful about putting our people on a clock, because we think that we want people to serve speed with quality, not get too quick and make mistakes. And so what we're doing, we believe the app and the continued growth of the app and the encouragement of the app, I think part of why our Brewista are the number one sales people for the app and having customers convert, it does improve speed, it's the number one way for people to improve speed in our lines, is to continue to use that app because it removes the friction in the line to do that. The second thing is we just continue to focus on our managers, with our teams to have very efficient service. And some of that is art, not science, right. So we have to be careful that we don't upset a customer who does want to talk to one of our employees who has built a great relationship with them. We don't want to rush them through because we're trying to quick in the line, so as to find dynamic between taking care of people and improving our speed. But I think with the constant attention of our leadership in the field and field operations and that will help. The last thing is as we build our infill model, we will continue to relieve pressure off of some of our larger locations, and make sure that we're balancing volumes. As Charlie mentioned, we've got four locations now in the College Station, Bryan market. And the pressure relieved from number one is really helping out balance the volume across the market, which also helps improve speed and improves our customer service.

Chris O'Cull

Analyst

That’s helpful. Charlie, can you remind me what kind of cannibalization measure you looking for this year as you backfill some of these markets.

Charley Jemley

Analyst

So about 100 basis points of sales transfer is what the drag is on total comp. If you look at what happened to us in the fourth quarter, we had about 140 basis points. We went very fast until very quickly, and we're kind of siphoning off 10% to 15% when we hit a store just to give you a relative level of understanding on that. And that's back to Joth's comments is the most important thing is we can infill relieve pressure and create opportunities for the source to grow more effectively.

Chris O'Cull

Analyst

That’s helpful. I am looking forward to you guys infilling Nashville.

Charley Jemley

Analyst

We're going as fast as we can. Yes.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair.

Hi, good afternoon. I guess a question about new markets, as you are building out these new markets, I'm getting all choked up here, and I need water or coffee. What are you learning about how loyalty the digital loyalty program ramps in new markets and how to best build awareness? And then, Charlie, on the discount side of the equation, I know you'll have some residual, of course in the first quarter, given the timing of the lapping last year, or the initiation last year, can you kind of quantify how much discount impact you expect in the first quarter?

Charley Jemley

Analyst · William Blair.

I think the positive lap is about 100 150 basis points, if I recollect that on the discount rate, from a little higher elevated rate in quarter one of 2021 to where run rate is right now. And roughly, I think that's the number. So that was the second part of your question.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · William Blair.

Yes. The first quarter. Sharon is really it's, the benefit of our new markets is that we're opening our stands now with the app being not to our new customers, that's just part of the program. And so QR code on the cup, QR codes on the cup of Brewista is encouraging use of it, downloads of the app before you even make your first visit, so on and so forth, how that compares to comp stores? I don't know the answer to that something we can certainly find out. And I think that's a good question. But intuitively, I will tell you that the app has been very positive for us as we've executed our new plan. And I do think it's a result of why the shops that we've opened in the last year, with the app in place, have done so well.

Operator

Operator

Sharon, you have any further questions?

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst

All right, I would probably choke if I asked anymore. So I will end it there. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We have next question from the line of Joshua Long with Piper Sandler.

Joshua Long

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Great, thanks for taking the question. Perhaps following up on that last point, when we think about the opportunity around throughput, or just the overall operational efficiency by driving that digital tender mix higher, curious if you might be able to share any of the experiences or learnings you have for those stores where perhaps they're indexing or over indexing ahead of the system, I think you mentioned in 4Q, that was about 60%, of new tender was to that -- storage that you've seen that next Q higher and just what you've seen work or how you might think about that, translating to the rest of the system as that piece of the business scales.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

So if a higher percent of sales is coming from rewards members in one shop relative to another, I mean if CFC, when I look at some of the data upwards of 70% or so of tender come in some shops, the higher uptake shops for reward, sometime is as low as 50. Not enough, really not enough data that to figure out whether that's affecting comp or not at this stage. Certainly something as we click down on this a little further is back to micro targeting, where do we have the best uptake on rewards is a percent of tender and where do we have the least good uptake and how do we target that, and try to get that higher in the lower ones, because we know that creates a lot more attachments. So we're in the early innings. As we said, we've done a lot of testing, we can do click downs to look at this a lot closer. And there's a lot of opportunity.

Joshua Long

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Thank you for that. And then just as a follow up thinking about the commentary around moving into some new markets, or at least in the first half of the year, having some of those stores being more focused on going into new markets. Just curious, how do you think about scaling? And I'm sure the answer varies across markets. But any sort of high level commentary you can provider in terms of -- starts to see that you're hitting that threshold in terms of either awareness or the initial stages of gaining scale in the market in terms of the number of units?

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Well, I think it's a great question, I think as we've talked, we've kind of got this. I got this three pronged approach, right. So we need to, we're going into to new markets. I think that our entry into newer markets this year will be less than last year because we had so many new entries last year, that we're now going to be doing things like we did in College Station where we're opening shop number two, three and four and now filling in markets, places like Lubbock, Texas and Nashville and Kansas City, in Houston and Dallas, like a lot of work will be done on in filling those areas. We have a lot of legacy markets like opportunities where we can relieve pressure from existing businesses that have been around for a long time, in places like Sacramento and Phoenix specifically, where we can really offload maybe some higher volume stores and start to balance volume out. And then we still have plenty of new opportunities as we look east, where we'll be opening up brand new market. So it's kind of -- it's hard to answer that one way, because we're really kind of running three different business models very effectively, and a lot of it will be determined by like, what opens when, and how that affects that plus people that are – they are really moving into those new opportunities or taking on more of an existing opportunity. So I know it's a wordy answer. But there's a lot of factors that go into that.

Joth Ricci

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Thank you. Well, with that, everyone, we want to thank you for your questions. Thank you for your time. Thank you for your continued interest in Dutch Bros. We are very excited about where we're headed in 2022 and beyond. And we want to thank everybody for their support, not just our calls and the things that we do, but also of our people every day in the stand. So thank you very much. We appreciate you and have an amazing day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you very much, gentlemen. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.