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Brady Corporation (BRC) Q3 2012 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

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Brady Corporation (BRC)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call· Wed, May 16, 2012

$82.28

+0.38%

Brady Corporation Q3 2012 Earnings Call Key Takeaways

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Brady Corporation Q3 2012 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2012 Brady Corporation Earnings Conference Call. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator for today. [Operator Instructions] Today's event is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Aaron Pearce, Treasurer and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Aaron Pearce

Analyst

Thank you, Regina. Good morning, and welcome to the Brady Corporation's Fiscal 2012 Third Quarter Conference Call. During the call this morning, you'll hear from Frank Jaehnert, Brady's CEO; and Tom Felmer, Brady's CFO; as well as our 3 regional Presidents, Stephen Millar, President of the Asia Pacific region; Peter Sephton, EMEA President; and Matt Williamson, President of the Americas region. After the prepared remarks by the team, we'll open up the call to questions. The slides for this morning's call are located on our website at www.bradycorp.com. Please note that during this call, we may make comments about forward-looking information, words such as expect, believe, forecast and anticipate are a few examples of words identifying a forward-looking statement. It's important to note that forward-looking information is subject to various risk factors and uncertainties, which could significantly impact expected results. Risk factors were noted in our news release this morning and in Brady's latest Form 10-K, which was filed with the SEC in September of 2011. Also, please note that this teleconference is copyrighted by Brady Corporation and may not be broadcast without the consent of Brady. We will be recording this call and broadcasting it on the Internet. Your participation in the Q&A session will constitute your consent to being recorded. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Frank Jaehnert. Frank?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Our third quarter net income decreased 3.3% to $27.7 million. If you exclude the after-tax impact of restructuring charges, net income increased 3% and diluted EPS grew 3.6% in the third quarter. Revenues were down 1.9% to $331.6 million in the third quarter, while organic revenues were down 0.5% in total. Our organic revenues were up 1.9% in the Americas, while organic revenues were down 1.2% in the Asia Pacific region and 3.3% in Europe. Business in Europe and in Asia was weaker than we expected. Despite these weaknesses, we were able to grow earnings, exclusive of restructuring charges, due to disciplined cost control, reduced incentive compensation and strength in the Americas regions, more specifically, strength in the U.S. Brady business. Looking broadly, the U.S. economy appears to be recovering, but Europe's economy is getting weaker and lacks any sort of positive catalyst to drive economic expansion. As I mentioned last quarter, to create growth, we are focused on the following initiatives. First, expanding our business in emerging geographies; second, expanding globally in certain focus markets; third, new product development; fourth, aggressive customer conversion; and fifth, the expansion of our digital capabilities. We allocated resources to drive safe improvements through these major categories. We recently announced the completion of 3 bolt-on acquisitions as well, which Peter will expand upon. We have a strong balance sheet and are now in a net cash position. We remain committed to putting our cash to work and by leveraging our balance sheet. We believe that acquisitions at the right price and investing in organic growth opportunities are the best uses of our cash balance. Lastly, we will continue to return funds to our shareholders through dividends, which have increased for the last 26 years. Now I would like to turn the call over to Tom Felmer for our third quarter financial review. Tom?

Thomas Felmer

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Thanks, Frank, and good morning, everyone. On Slide 3, you'll see a summary of our third quarter financial results. As Frank just mentioned, net income excluding the $2.7 million of after-tax restructuring charges related to cost reductions in our die-cut businesses and other costs related to the streamlining of our global operations was up 3% to $30.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2012. Diluted EPS excluding these restructuring charges was up 3.6% compared with the prior year to finish at $0.57 per share in the third quarter. Total sales were down 1.9% in the quarter as a result of declines in the U.S. dollar compared to prior year and weakness in Europe and Asia as organic sales were down 0.5%. FX was a headwind in the quarter, decreasing revenues by 1.6%. Our third quarter gross profit margin finished at 48.3%. However, raw materials and freight costs were higher than they were this time last year. The biggest driver for the decline in gross profit margin continues to be our Asia segment, where competition in the die-cut space has been significant. Coupling this heightened competition with the declines in sales to one of our largest mobile handset customers has led to margin compression. During the third quarter, incentive compensation was $5.9 million below the prior year, partially offsetting the impacts of the softer sales volume and gross profit margins. Lastly on this slide, I'd like to point out that our cash balance remains strong at $374 million as of April 30, even after $42 million in debt reduction in the quarter. As Frank mentioned, we are committed to deploying our cash and leveraging our balance sheet to take advantage of both organic growth opportunities, as well as making strategic acquisitions. On Slide 4, to summarize our guidance for fiscal…

Matthew Williamson

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 11 for the Americas review. Sales in the Americas in the third quarter were $150.6 million. Organic sales increased 1.9% and foreign currency translation decreased revenues by 0.9% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2011. Brady Brand business in the U.S. was our strongest performer as we grew nicely with mid- to high-single digit organic growth rates in the quarter. Our relentless pursuit of improving our customers' buying experience, delivering the highest level of customer service combined with the continual launch of proprietary new products and an excellent sales and distribution team enabled us to take market share. A good example of this is the launch of the new durable fire-resistant labeling material, part of our strategy toward offering the most complete product line of high-performance labeling solutions for the aerospace and mass transit markets. Additionally, the BMP 51 printer, a new proprietary printer for both the electrical and data communication applications, launched at the beginning of the quarter and has been well accepted by our customers and continues to provide increasing demand for the printer and its related consumables. Sales growth in our core Brady business was partially offset by a sales decline in our business focused on the education market, which is suffering from tight school budgets. Our Brady businesses in Brazil also grew in the quarter as there continues to be ongoing demand for our custom OEM labeling products even as the pace of economic growth in Brazil slows. This business was offset by declining die-cut sales in Brazil. Likewise, our Brady business in Mexico and Canada also grew in the quarter, albeit not at the same pace as the growth in the U.S. due to declining business from a key OEM customer in these countries.…

Peter Sephton

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Thanks, Matt. And turn your attention now to Slide #12. Sales in EMEA were down 7.5% to $97.9 million in the third quarter. The sales reduction is a combination of reduced organic sales of 3.3% and a negative impact of 4.7% from foreign currency translation. Acquisitions added 0.5%. This quarter compares unfavorably against quarter 3 of last year, where we had some stability in the European economy compared to this year, where we have a Eurozone crisis. Although this modest sales decline was noticeable in most countries of the EU-27, there continues to be differences in performance between the respective countries in EMEA. For instance, our U.K. business was down in the quarter as England has formally slipped back into recession, and our Spanish and Italian businesses although small, also showed significant sales declines against -- again, driven by difficult economic circumstances. Our business in Germany also showed negative organic sales growth as the uncertainties bubbling out of Southern Europe are having a negative impact on buying patterns throughout the Eurozone, although the underlying trends in Germany are good for both the economy and our businesses in this country. On the other hand, our businesses in the Scandinavian countries continued to show resilience, and our businesses in Central Europe and the Middle East continue their strong fiscal 2012 performance by posting strong revenue and earnings growth. Taking a look at our businesses by business stream, our Direct Marketing business saw core sales decline of 3.8%, driven mainly by its exposure to mature economies in the Eurozone. This decline was relatively broad based due to the macro economy. In order to mitigate this, we reallocated investments away from Southern Europe and the U.K. and invested in building our customer files in Germany and capitalized on leveraging cross-selling opportunities at our Securimed…

Stephen Millar

Analyst · CJS Securities

Thanks, Peter. Continuing on Slide 13, sales in the Asia Pacific region in the third quarter were $83.1 million, up 0.3% from the prior year. Organic sales were down 1.2% and currency had a positive impact of 1.5%. Organic sales were helped by the timing of Chinese New Year falling in quarter 2 this year compared to falling in quarter 3 last year. The net impact of the timing of Chinese New Year was to increase organic growth by 6% in the third quarter. Our sales performance in the third quarter was lower than we had anticipated for the reasons that I'll address in a moment. Our focus on Asia continues to be twofold. Firstly, we are highly focused on improving profitability in our die-cut business. And secondly, we are expanding our presence in our other MRO and identification portfolios of workplace safety and compliance, wire and cable identification and product identification. Let me take a moment to further explain the status of the organizational changes we announced last quarter in our Asian business. We are making nice progress splitting our Asian business into 2 main streams as our leadership teams are now in place. We have a dedicated die-cut team focused exclusively on driving die-cut sales and increasing profitability. Our die-cut business represents approximately 1/2 of our total Asia Pacific sales but a much smaller percentage of our overall segment profit. Switching to our MRO and identification offerings, we now have teams dedicated to expanding these businesses. Our MRO business is largely our portfolio of products which help customers with workplace safety and compliance, and our identification businesses include our traditional label and wire identification product lines. All in, our identification and MRO business in Asia represents about 1/4 of our overall APAC sales today, but we see this…

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

Thanks, Stephen. Before turning the call over to questions, let me just share my concluding thoughts. First, on the backs of strong U.S. business and continued cost containment efforts, we were able to increase earnings per share, excluding restructuring charges this quarter. This increase was in the face of a challenging macro economy in Europe and the challenges in our Asian die-cut business. We are working on the right items to drive organic growth, including acceleration of our e-business initiatives and launching some of the best new products in the history of our company. On the acquisition front, we just completed 3 acquisitions. Although these acquisitions are relatively small, they are on areas we have been focusing on for strategic growth, and we have a strong pipeline of additional acquisition candidates. As Peter, Stephen and Matt articulated, we continue to aggressively focus on driving organic growth. However, we will not sit still on the cost front as we are continually looking for ways to streamline our business to keep our teams focused on serving our customers and increasing efficiencies wherever possible. We thank you for your interest in Brady and we will now start the Q&A. Regina, can you please provide instructions for our listeners?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question today comes from the line of Jason Ursaner with CJS Securities.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst · CJS Securities

Looking at Europe -- Peter mentioned a number of different puts and takes, but this question is actually for Frank. I think last quarter, you talked about the correlation to just the general economy and that it would be difficult to create your own growth story. So I guess first, do you still see that as the case and just what are your general expectations for the region in the next 6 to 12 months, maybe with a break between the core countries and those more on the periphery?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

Yes, I think Europe is going to be a stagnant economy in the next couple of months, not sure how long. And I said earlier, we need to create our own growth story and that's what we're going to focus on. And I think what you have seen in the growth through acquisitions is a result of this, like we see growth in South Africa and the acquisition, albeit small in South Africa, is going to give us an opportunity to grow faster organically than the European or the EMEA region would grow in general. We also see in Scandinavia, where we just made 2 acquisitions, we also see a more stable economy than in some of the other more central European or more core European countries. So that's just an example. But beyond this, we talked about moving into more digital, focusing on certain markets, certain vertical markets, for instance, Aerospace, Defense and mass transit where we are taking share right now. That's the kind of activities we are undertaking in order to beat the economy in Europe.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst · CJS Securities

Okay. And staying with acquisitions, you continue to find opportunities, you made the 3 small tuck-ins. Is this a representative gauge in terms of size and are you seeing larger deals out there, and are sellers' expectations just very different as you begin to move up the size curve?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

We are looking at all kinds of sizes. I would say these acquisitions we've just made around the lower end of what we are looking at, at the moment. Prices are, I would say, not as cheap as they used to be, but they're still in the range where we can add shareholder value.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst · CJS Securities

Okay. And lastly, on Asia. I missed a little bit of Stephen's commentary, but just from an internal perspective, how much worse did the situation on the OEM side with the existing product offerings get relative to what you'd been expecting?

Stephen Millar

Analyst · CJS Securities

I don't know that I can quantify that, Jason, but it was worse. As we said, we saw a drop-off from our largest customer that we hadn't expected. I just couldn't put a number to it, but it was -- that was pretty well where the shortage was.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst · CJS Securities

Okay. But it was more of a short-term -- something that, I guess, had -- because you had anniversary-ed everything from last year?

Stephen Millar

Analyst · CJS Securities

Yes. The customers continued to decline more than we'd anticipated. So the question of the short term is -- part of the question is when they reach the bottom of their cycle.

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

May I just maybe add some additional comments there, Jason. The customer you're talking about, their sales was down 29%; not all sales to them but their sales in the marketplace. That's taken and we said this used to be our largest customer. Obviously, our sales are, in total, again, are down by -- in that range, actually they are pretty flat. So this just shows you that we have been successful in getting business from other customers. However, what we are seeing is we see much more mix, shorter runs in our net efficiencies and in our system. So I think we saw more of an impact on the bottom line than we saw on the top line as mix shifts from a long-run business with high volumes from one customer to many, many customers with shorter runs, but more on the bottom line, I think where we saw the impact than the top line.

Jason Ursaner

Analyst · CJS Securities

Okay. And was there any revenue catch-up from the delays last quarter on the hard-disk drive market? And was revenue -- did it benefit at all from the delays last quarter?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · CJS Securities

Yes, go ahead, Stephen.

Stephen Millar

Analyst · CJS Securities

I wouldn't say it benefited from the delays. I mean, we continue to see improvements, an increase in revenues at -- we are largely at the capacity we can reach now with our temporary facility, where, as I said, where the impact is no longer material to the Brady Corporation results. But I wouldn't say we saw a catch-up attributable from quarter-to-quarter. I think we just saw an ongoing improvement.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets.

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

When you guys -- on the Asia Pacific discussion on the separation of those 2 businesses, you gave the sales breakout, I wonder if you could give us some more granularity on the contribution, the operating profit across those businesses? I mean, you said the die-cast is a smaller piece, but I'm just -- can you quantify that a little bit?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Yes, it's significantly smaller.

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Okay. And is die-cast for the company, in general, still around 30%, or has it shrunk meaningfully below that?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Excuse me, can you repeat the question?

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Yes, if I look at the die-cast business, right, it's been running for a while around 30% of the total Brady revenue, so I'm just wondering kind of given some of the down-tick in that business over the past couple of quarters, where that percentage sits today roughly.

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

For the total company, I think -- I mean, it's much less than 30%. And I can't remember that it ever was 30%. Maybe -- Tom?

Thomas Felmer

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Does it say in our investor presentation, if you have a recent one, it's probably just -- I think historically, it ran just under 20% and it is down from that. Maybe it's down 4 or 5 points from that.

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Okay. And I guess just philosophically, when you look at that business longer term, and you look at the price competition that's probably unlikely to abate meaningfully anytime soon, does it make sense, given your focus on where you've taken the company the past few years to still be in that business?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

That's a kind of question I cannot answer like this, but I can give you a generic answer. First of all, if you look at all our businesses, our businesses are -- which are not performing and our businesses which are performing very well and looking at our total portfolio, and say, "You know what, what makes sense for us to be in, and what makes sense for us not to be in?" But again, also said that we are -- certainly, we want to increase profitability of our die-cut business. We are in die-cut. And since we are in die-cut, we have to do everything we can to grow sales and profit and by separating the operations facilities and responsibilities, leadership for die-cut and the other businesses, I think we have positioned this business much better to increase profitability because it's just more focused on it.

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Okay. And if you look at the R&D expense, it was down as a percent of sales and down in dollar terms. I'm just wondering, is that a temporary blip, or should we expect that to come back to a little more normalized level going forward.

Thomas Felmer

Analyst · Charlie Brady with BMO Capital Markets

Part of the explanation is due to incentive compensation, so if you look at the actual number of people and resources, it's actually been fairly flat compared to prior year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Anthony Kure with KeyBanc.

Karl Ackerman

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

This is Karl Ackerman on behalf of Anthony. Just regarding the acquisitions, you made 3 small acquisitions the quarter closed. You had indicated that in 2012, these should be kind of neutral to EPS. But I guess for modeling purposes, how should we think about the margin profile of these businesses? Are they on par with the European segment? Or is there some work to be done on the expense structure or some cross-selling opportunities to get the borrowing leverage you needed to bring those up to segment profitability?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

I'll answer the first question regarding the profitability and Peter will tell you a little bit about our cross-selling opportunities in those businesses. Yes, the margin profile is profitably the same as the rest of Europe.

Peter Sephton

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Let me come on to you. You asked the question, Karl, about product synergies. There are product synergies across all 3 of them. We looked at Runelandhs and Pervaco as giving us a real foothold in that market. They've got a raft of customers that we can access with our typical product line that we couldn't have accessed before, so there's immediate product synergy there. And in South Africa, likewise, that's primarily wire ID businesses, great reference accounts. And actually, it gives us a platform not only to extend our wire ID offer but also to launch into that customer base. And from that beachhead, with workplace safety and compliance products, so all 3 of them, as Frank said, have got similar margin profiles to ours, all 3 of them have significant opportunities for us to put our products through their channel. And in some cases, in the case of Runelandhs, to take some of their products through our customers in the rest of Western Europe as well.

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

So the synergies is all in sales, cross-selling each other's products, our products to their channels -- to their customers and vice versa. We don't see an associate on the cost side. Some of them are in Scandinavia where we don't have a big presence, and the other one in South Africa where we didn't have a presence at all. So it's all sales-related upside.

Karl Ackerman

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Okay, that's helpful. And then just, I guess on the use of cash, you didn't, with these acquisitions, you had some debt paydown in the most recent -- in this quarter. You do have an under-leveraged balance sheet on a debt-to-EBITDA basis, a little over $7 per share in cash, just shy of 1.8 million shares remaining on the current share authorization program, I guess how should we think about cash deployment going forward here? What's the best use in your mind?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Well, our #1 priority for cash is to invest in organic growth, followed by making acquisitions. And as you have seen, we have made 3 now small ones didn't make it then in our cash balance. We are looking actively in acquisitions. We do not want to sit with a lot of cash on our balance sheet. We'd like to put this cash to work and we would have no problems leveraging our balance sheet by tapping into our revolver or taking on new debt. And we are really working on this. But on the other hand, we're not just going to make an acquisition to make an acquisition in order to take cash, which, right now, returns less than 1%, until [indiscernible], we have to create shareholder value and what we use is cost of capital which we need to beat and so we are looking at it very prudently. We do not feel under a short-term pressure to execute, but we are working very, very hard on finding acquisitions. Yes, I'll just leave it at this.

Karl Ackerman

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Okay, and I'll just -- if I may sneak one more in. Within the Americas segment, it sounded like the Brady Branded business performed pretty well during the quarter. But could you talk about some of the other businesses, such as People ID, I think it had a slower start to the year last quarter, any improvement there? And then also any improvement in the digital sales on a sequential basis?

Matthew Williamson

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

Okay. So the People ID business was pretty much flat. The digital business on a sequential basis is definitely up. But as I indicated, that's offset by some lower performance in our mail results, so it's netting pretty much flat performance in the Direct Marketing business, the core Seton and EMED business.

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Anthony Kure with KeyBanc

I would say, one of the issues we had, and Matt pointed it on his conference call, is the education markets, schools and so forth, don't have a lot of budget. So it's a business which is suffering much more than our other businesses, so as People ID is concerned, that's not really a big portion of our company, and that's not performing as well as the U.S. but it's kind of, okay, it's fluctuating a little bit from quarter-to-quarter. I would say there's nothing where we're taking on a trend one way or the other.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird.

Mircea Dobre

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

This is Mig Dobre, sitting in for Rob McCarthy. I guess my question is for Stephen or maybe Frank. I'm wondering, can you provide us any color on the performance of the MRO and ID businesses, as well as the Australia, a portion of the Asia segment. I mean, we know that die-cut has been challenged, but I'm wondering how these other businesses are doing.

Stephen Millar

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

Sure. Well, as I said in the commentary, the Australian business is doing very well. It's performing on par with our core Brady business in the U.S. I know it's a mature economy, but the machine is working well to get good growth and good returns there. Our MRO and identification businesses in Asia proper are not as mature. The markets are still developing, they're developing in different ways, at different rates. And with the reorganization we talked about and implemented in February, we now have a leadership focusing on those markets and we've just been realigning our sales organizations as well. So we're at a very early stage there. We've had some reasonable growth in the last few years, and we're trying to reignite that to another level of growth now as these markets continue to mature. So we see big opportunities there in the future. Our identification businesses are currently stronger than our MRO businesses in those regions because that's -- we've been in identification products longer than we've been in MRO. So they're small, solid and still we're expecting, obviously, growth rates higher than we've seen in our mature economies, simply on the basis of the rapidly growing nature of the emerging economies.

Mircea Dobre

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

And how would you characterize order progression or demand through the quarter in these businesses in Asia?

Stephen Millar

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

It's still quite lumpy. I said in the prepared comments that these businesses outside of Australia are still more focused on infrastructure and a capital nature of spend as opposed to what we would see in the mature businesses in the Americas or Western Europe, where it really is a maintenance, repair and operations spend, where people are buying things more for use in established facilities or established operations. You look at China, particularly, a lot of the spend is still on new facilities being built or whatever the nature of those facilities. So it's a lot lumpier, so we don't see a typical trend from quarter to quarter. You'd have a quarter that's very strong where there's a big project coming through, then a quarter that's not so strong. So I think we see consistency in the sense that underlying demand patterns, we can see emerging consistently, but in terms of the actual sales flow, it's not easy to put a quarterly trend on it.

Mircea Dobre

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

I see. And one last one, if I may. I guess as I'm looking at the split of the 2 Asia teams with the separate die-cut team, I'm wondering, Frank, do you see at some time in the future to where you have a global die-cut team looking at some of the other geographies as well. Or is this an Asia-specific initiative?

Frank Jaehnert

Analyst · Rob McCarthy with Robert W. Baird

The die-cut business has maybe been the only business in Brady which we have always run globally because there's so much cooperation and so much coordination between customers. Those customers are global multinational accounts, like in Apple or Samsung or Nokia and so forth. And they always require global coordination. So whether we manufacture in Brazil or in Germany or in China, they need to be globally coordinated. So while the business is -- the majority of the business is in Asia, they work very, very closely together.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Benjamin Wong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Benjamin Wong

Analyst · Benjamin Wong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Can you elaborate on the long-term potential of Asia-Pac margins? I mean if you're assuming you can execute on your strategy and grow the MRO business and improve the die-cut business, what would the margin profile look like?

Stephen Millar

Analyst · Benjamin Wong with Bank of America Merrill Lynch

There's 2 very separate margins, the margin mix here so the profile will -- it'll be interesting how it evolves. The MRO business and our margins have been high MRO and identification margins close to what we would see in North America and Europe. We would anticipate in the outlying years, there may be some slight downward movement in those margins as those markets get more competitive, but still being significantly above where our blended APAC margin is today. With the margin improvements programs that we have in place for the die-cut business, we obviously expect to see margin lift there. So without putting a number on where it would be, over time, we expect the weighting of our businesses to be more towards the MRO and HPI, and so that would have a pretty significant lift in the overall margins. But this is -- that's not in the next quarter, but certainly, as we move forward, that's the way we would see it trending.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is a follow-up question from the line of Charlie Brady.

Charles Brady

Analyst · Charlie Brady

Just on the Asia Pacific and the fourth quarter guidance, you said you expect it down year-on-year. Are you expecting it to be down sequentially from fiscal Q3?

Stephen Millar

Analyst · Charlie Brady

Yes, it will be down sequentially.

Operator

Operator

And gentlemen, there are no further questions in the queue at this time. Would you like to make some closing remarks?

Aaron Pearce

Analyst

Sure. Thank you for your participation today. And as a reminder, the audio and slides from this morning's call are also available on our website at www.investor.bradycorp.com. The replay of this call will be available via the phone beginning at 12:30 Central Time today, May 16. The phone number to access the call is 1 (888) 286-8010 or (617) 801-6888 and the passcode is 87652245, and a phone replay will be available until May 23. And as always, if you have questions, please contact us. Thanks, have a nice day and, Regina, can you please disconnect the call?

Operator

Operator

Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for your participation today. This does conclude the presentation, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day.