Jim Young
Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead sir
Thanks, Tim. Like Tim, I’m deeply sadden by the toll that virus has taken on the Broadridge family. We are still grieving but we are resilient and it is impossible not to feel intense pride the way our associates have responded. They are truly delivering in remarkable ways to all our associates’ thank you and a special thank you to our production teams.And now our results. I’m pleased with our performance in the third quarter and even within the [indiscernible] related to COVID. It was consistent with outlook we provided in early March, our performance and outlook highlight the resilience of our business. I’ll begin on Slide 10 with 6 call outs. First, the net impact of COVID on our recurring revenue in the third quarter was modest, but there were more notable impacts in individual product lines. Organic recurring growth was 3% in the third quarter and we expect high single-digit organic growth in Q4 as we benefit from an increase in volatility and the shift of some proxy work from Q3 to Q4.Second, the weak event activity trends we saw in the first half of the year has continued and are now being exacerbated by COVID. This is a lowest event activity in six years. Third, we’ve recorded a 20% increase in sales in the third quarter and notably higher sales in March because of our strong pipeline of new opportunities.We have confidence that we can deliver on our sales guidance even in this environment. Fourth, our strong balance sheet. Our investment grade credit rating is $1.5 billion of liquidity give us ample flexibility to fund our operations, repay our maturing notes and support our dividend.There is no substitute for healthy balance sheet in excess to capital. And [it also] give us the comfort and confidence to focus on doing what is right for the business. Fifth, guidance, factoring our full quarter’s impact of COVID we are reiterating our guidance for recurring revenue growth in trimming our adjusted EPS guidance on the further drop in event activity below what we previously expected.Sixth and final color. COVID in a year ahead, as this is practice, we will not provide formal guidance on next fiscal year until we report our fourth quarter. But I think it’s important we provide some perspective on how the business may perform in the recession including a very preliminary view on recurring revenue growth.Let’s turn to Slide 11, in our revenue growth drivers. Our recurring fee revenues rose 9% in the quarter with healthy new sales additions contribution 5 points to growth. Most implementations have long lead times and are in motions months before go live. Importantly, we did not see much of an impact on-boarding processes in March. It’s clearly something we are keeping an eye on it but pandemic continues to unfold. We saw the biggest COVID impact in internal growth although the net effect was neutral. The headline here is that exceptional trade growths driven by high volatility related to the crisis was largely offset by the COVID driven shift of certain proxy work from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. These big revenue factors essentially neutralized each other. I will touch on these again in my review of each business.Acquisitions are performing well and contributed 6 points of growth. We'll start to analyze two of our larger acquisitions next quarter, so the overall impact from acquisitions should decline modestly in the fourth quarter. Looking to next quarter, we expect organic revenue growth to improve meaningfully the improvement should come from the combination of sustain strong sales to revenue performance and positive internal growth boosted by strong stock record growth and the realization of the known proxy timing shift from Q3 to Q4.Moving down to total revenue, total revenues increased 2% to $1.25 billion as recurring revenue growth was partially offset by a sharp decline event driven and related distribution revenues. Let's dive deeper in each of our business segments, starting with ICS on Slide 12. Recurring revenues grew 2% a solid net new business and acquisition gains each contributed 3 points. Organic growth dip negative due to COVID, timing and other impacts. The biggest driver of our decline organic growth was a timing shift and proxy. As you may recall, with the implementation of the new revenue recognition standard last year, Q3 and Q4 mix is very sensitive each day represents about $5 million, so it only takes a couple days of movement to shift meaningful revenue between quarters. This year COVID related safety measures including staff level reductions and social distancing, moved some of our dates out by a few days. This shift lowered our third quarter revenues by $15 million to $20 million.Importantly, stock record growth remained very healthy at 7% and with much of the quarterly volume now shipped, we expect high single-digit stock record growth in the fourth quarter as well. The proxy catch up, coupled with the dramatic pickup in demand for virtual shareholder meetings that Tim described should lead to a notable pickup in our equity proxy revenue line next quarter.Mutual fund and ETF interims revenues benefited from a positive mix shift. Underlying record growth was zero as the fund industry experienced record outflows in March. Customer communications and fulfillment revenues rose 3%, as the decline in equity markets triggered a wave of portfolio rebalancing, which drove a 24% increase in the volume of prospectuses we sent out. Customer communications revenues was also at 3%, which was nice to see.Rounding out ICS recurring revenues, continued growth and data analytics revenue was partially offset by lower revenues from securities market value and interest rate sensitive products and a retirement fund trading and custody business, following the big market declines and the Fed’s decision to slash rates.Looking ahead ICS is on track for mid to high single-digit organic revenue growth in the fourth quarter given the combination of a strong proxy season, the pickup from the proxy timing shift, strong demand for virtual shareholder meetings at a modest pickup and post sale volumes is shaping up to be a strong finish to the year.As I noted in my call outs, event driven revenues declined sharply to $39 million. As you'll see on Slide 13, third quarter event driven revenues were at their lowest level since 2014, reflecting a continuation of the trend we've seen all year and new COVID related delays. As the crisis unfolded, we have seen a couple of notable proxy campaigns pushed into fiscal ‘21 and high profile proxy fights set aside. So we are now anticipating additional declines and event driven revenues in the fourth quarter. Our significantly reduced full year forecast of $155 million would take us to fiscal ‘13 levels and our weakest Q4 for event revenue since fiscal ‘12.Let's turn to our GTO business on Slide 12, which reported very strong results for the third quarter. Revenues rose 23% on 11 points of organic growth. The biggest driver was exceptional trading growth 28% in equities and 19% in fixed income. As Tim noted, it is a testament to our technology and our associates that we handled record volumes so flawlessly. As a reminder, about 30% to 40% of the GTO business is volume sensitive to trading activity. The majority of our contracts are based on trading bands we're not every trade translates into incremental revenue. We also continue to achieve strong net new business additions and pickups from licenses. The recent acquisitions performed well adding meaningful revenue.Beyond the higher trading volumes, the impact of the COVID crisis on our GTO business was limited. We did see one large license contracts slipped out of the quarter and ultimately closed in April. More generally, we are keeping a very close eye on our client on-boarding schedules and most plans are on schedule at this time.Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect to see more strong sales to revenue growth and continued higher trading volumes, although below levels in March. In the fourth quarter, we expect GTO organic revenue growth to be in the high single-digit range and total growth in the high teens.Turning to Slide 15. In this uncertain economic environment, our balance sheet is a source of strength. At the close of the quarter, our available liquidity was $1.5 billion comprised of $402 million in cash balances, and $1.1 billion remaining on our committed $1.5 billion revolving credit facility.Moreover, our debt maturity profile further enhances our liquidity outlook. Over 75% of the fixed portion of our debt does not mature for six or more years, our only maturity less than six years is $400 million of senior notes coming due in September of 2020. And we anticipate having ample excess cash and revolver availability to refinance this maturity. Our revolving credit facility has one financial covenant, a debt leverage ceiling which were well below.An important factor in our capital planning is our credit rating. We’ve remain committed to our strong investment grade credit rating while taking a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocations. Given the environment in our recent M&A, we were focused in the near-term and reducing our leverage ratio from about 2.4 times a little elevated with extra cash on the balance sheet to about 2 times by June 30. As a result is unlikely, we will do any meaningful share repurchases in the fourth quarter.Underpinning our capital planning is our free cash flow. Broadridge generated free cash flow of $82 million for the first nine months of the year. We continue to expect healthy free cash flow in the fourth quarter where we typically generate most of our free cash flow.Two other call outs. First in our operating cash flow, you can see the impact of the large investment we are making to develop the UBS and industry Wealth Management platform, which is on schedule. Second, we are keeping a watchful eye on collections which have been very healthy so far in the crisis. We've invested $339 million and tucking M&A fiscal year to-date, which includes our acquisition of funds library that closed at the end of February. Finally, we remain committed to our dividend. And earlier this week, our Board approved our next dividend payable on July 2.I've made a lot of comments about our outlook in my discussion of our results. So let me sum up there -- here with our full year guidance on Slide 16. We expect total recurring revenue growth in the 8% to 10% range for fiscal ‘20, including organic growth of 3% to 4%. Our outlook for the fourth quarter implies high single-digit organic growth within an additional 4 to 6 points from acquisitions for total recurring growth of low to mid-teens.Taking into account, event driven revenues of approximately $155 million down from our previous $175 million to $195 million range and a modest decline in distribution revenues, we're guiding to total revenue growth at the low end of 3% to 6%. We continue to expect our full year adjusted operating income margin to be about 18%.We're expecting adjusted EPS growth of 5% to 7% down from our prior guidance of about 8%. The biggest driver of the decline our EPS guidance is our outlook for event driven revenue. We've also de-risked our outlook for the excess tax benefit to $12 million from $20 million. Notably the reduction in event and ETB combined represents approximately $0.20 or 4 points of EPS growth.Finally, a comment on sales. Our guidance for closed sales in the range of $190 million to $230 million remained unchanged. While our sales pipeline is strong, the challenges of remote work in the stressed economic environment make a wide range especially appropriate. All in all, I would consider this a pretty strong performance if we close out the year with adjusted EPS growth of 5% to 7% in the phase of a $90 million downdraft and event fees and in range sales in this environment. In this outcome, would mean achieving a 16% or better three-year adjusted EPS compared to our target of 14% to 18%.We all know the economic outlook is uncertain and many of you have asked about the outlook for Broadridge beyond our fiscal fourth quarter was so much unknown, I [indiscernible] leave that I don't owe you a 12-month outlook until August. That said, we do want to share with you some of our preliminary thinking about how Broadridge may perform, at least from a revenue perspective in a recession.Let's move to Slide 17, our first point of reference is to go back and look at the last downturn in 2008. We’re stronger company today, it's worth noting how Broadridge performed in the global financial crisis, which began together forced in the beginning of fiscal ‘09. While the impact varied by business and total Broadridge is able to sustain recurring revenue growth of 5% in the first year of the crisis.In the second year that distinctly financial services focused crisis Broadridge posted modest positive growth despite big client consolidations and lower trading volumes. By 2011 Broadridge had returned to mid single-digit organic growth. These crises are very different, and we are better positioned today than we were in 2008 with no clearing business, more diverse revenue streams and a much stronger GTO business.I'll turn to my final Slide 18. There's no easy way to dimension the exact size and shape of the COVID recession. But our initial planning approach has been to assume that we are in a prolonged recession with tough macroeconomic conditions extending through our fiscal ‘21. We feel is a prudent way to prepare for the year ahead while keeping our eye on a large opportunities ahead of us.And assessing our business in a recession scenario is important to first ground and those aspects of our business that we believe are uniquely resilient. First, our biggest revenue growth driver is the conversion of sales to revenue. We currently estimate our revenue backlog to be about $330 million, which is equivalent to 11% of our approximate $3 billion in recurring revenue. This gives us a strong starting point to generate revenue growth without any new sales.Second, one of our most important drivers is position growth and our governance business. And while we expect position growth to be moderate in a recession, we take comfort that aggregate position growth stayed modestly positive even at the low point of the global financial crisis.Third, we have a long track record of 97 plus percent client revenue retention, which should serve us well in a potentially more challenging sales environment. And fourth, the core of what we do is mutualization across the financial services industry, which historically performs well in tougher times.Customer communications, an example of a historically lower growth business is not cyclical and should perform evenly through a recession with even more opportunities. But to be sure, there are definitely headwinds that we expect to feel in this COVID recession. First, because we are beneficiaries of market volatility, we would expect to face some tough comparables and trading and post sale volumes in the second half of next year.Second, lower assets under administration from market declines in interest rates may impact our fees and our mutual fund processing and transfer agency businesses. We're seeing this now in Q3 and Q4. And third, our clients may not be able to engage in on-boarding activities in the same way, which would have the effect of delaying on-boardings. Frankly, though, we're not seeing this at this point. Clients could also contract for smaller or fewer licenses for certain on-premise software. [Net/net], our preliminary work indicates recurring fee growth in the low single-digits in a tougher session, which would again demonstrate the resilience of our business.Again, this represents a preliminary view and is based on our current outlook. We will learn more with the passage of time and more data and we back in August with our Q4 results and latest thinking on fiscal ‘21.Let me wrap up here as I know I've given you a lot to digest. In summary, after a solid third quarter, we expect to close out fiscal ‘20 with very healthy organic recurring revenue growth and strong sales. Our strong balance sheet and ample liquidity keep us well positioned to navigate a challenging environment. Above all, we have the technology, culture and people to grow and succeed. Now back to Tim.