Thomas Reisten
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Okay. I think that's for me. If I'm not mistaken, those questions. So on the inventory buildup, I think -- I mean you are targeting on your question here, and let me briefly confirm that is actually asking whether we have been selling lower cost inventory at the beginning of the quarter. And then obviously, replenishment of this inventory came in at higher prices actually towards the end of the quarter. So as a consequence, having actually a higher gross profit margin initially, and then that actually to moderate down, I would say, later in the quarter. That is true, obviously, because we've had actually this lower cost inventory. Nevertheless, even now with this being -- with the replenishment costs coming through, we are seeing actually positive trends still emerging into the new quarter and towards the end of the second quarter, actually as well. So overall, you will see -- and this is even one other aspect that you see with regards to the working capital, that on the accounts receivables side, you actually have initially higher effect than you actually have on the accounts payable side. I know over time that actually catches up after a few weeks where you actually then have a bit of a balance, actually, that is coming out of that. But which is one of the reasons why we see an improvement into the beginning of the third quarter actually as well giving you another layer of detail on working capital movements. And gross profit, we still continue to see into the third quarter despite the replenishment costs going up, a positive impact and we've seen that as well towards the end of the second quarter. In terms of Q3 and Q4, if we look at the guidance, I mean, you will have recognized that -- maybe the second half is not actually assuming as much overperformance versus the previous year. That's very true. So the underlying assumptions that we have put in there for the midpoint are that over the third quarter, we actually expect gross profit to somewhat actually moderate step-by-step actually down. And then the fourth quarter, maybe conservatively is actually at a relatively similar level to the previous year. So there's opportunities and risks that are attached to that, that Jens did talk about already. which is related to, on the one hand, if actually this conflict lasts longer and inventories or respective availability of product actually will continue to be scarce and oil prices will actually remain higher, that might actually pose an opportunity for us next to the underlying initiatives continuing to actually gain traction. And then on the risk side and in our previous increased guidance, we were emphasizing on that a bit more than we do today. If we actually see demand destruction happening, which I really underpin. We haven't seen a sign of at this point in time. Instead, actually, volumes are flattish even with a good improvement on the -- with the sequential improvement in both areas. BSP and BES. And year-on-year, you see actually BSP very positive and only maybe slight decreases on the BES side as Jens actualy has said. Only if we actually see the demand destruction happening, we might actually move down on that towards the lower end. I hope that gives you a little bit of guidance on that.