Bruce Flatt
Analyst · TD Securities. Please go ahead
Good morning. As Brian mentioned, I guess notable in the quarter fund raising continues to be very strong and significant amounts of money are flowing into specifically real asset strategies. As Brian also said, we completed the final close for all the flagship funds and significant capital into a number of our other strategies. Total assets today are about $250 billion. I'm going to deal with just three topics today, but Brian or I are prepared to speak on anything else you'd wish at the end. Starting first with the U.K. Our view is that the U.K. will thrive in the long-term, but as all of you know, there often are bumps along the way in these types of situations. We also think that many times these situations present opportunities along the way where you can earn significant returns than otherwise in a situation, which is smooth during the time. Important point though to remember is, it requires a long-term view and an ability to withstand bumps along the way. Some of our businesses in the U.K. will likely not be affected by Brexit and some actually may benefit. For example, we own a short stay resort business that provides vacation accommodation to those who don't own a vacation home. A big part of our competition in this business comes from locals vacationing outside the U.K. But with the currency down, we think people -- more people will be staying local. We're also well diversified across our U.K. businesses and have -- for example, have a local retail mall business, a gas utility business and are building a multifamily residential business, each which will also likely not be affected by the situation. The business we own that will have the most uncertainty for a while is our U.K. office property business, essentially we rent space to large corporations, many of which are global and uncertainty about the future of the business model in the U.K. is not helpful to long-term planning for these type of companies. The good news is that we have significant time to be able to deal with this since the vast majority of our properties are fully leased on long-term leases with very high-quality tenants. Even most of our developments, which are under way, are mostly let to strong tenants and our issue therefore isn't the next 10 years, it's really the long-term business framework for London in the future. In this regard, we think that London will continue to be a very important center of global commerce. It's centrally located. It has a sound rule of law. It’s cultural respected capital. It has a free enterprise system. English is the primary language. A favorable tax regime for foreign companies, individuals and is a city that people like to live in. In fact, there are very few countries in the world that have all those things I just stated. In addition, moving corporate operations is extremely disruptive and expensive and in addition to that, there's no natural alternative in the EU for corporations to go. It's therefore for all these reasons that London was a global center before the vote and why we believe it will continue to be over the longer term. And while we definitely wouldn't have chosen this outcome, we think there are three things that will happen or could happen. Number one is that they'll negotiate an acceptable deal with the EU and life will go on. Number two, the U.K. will establish itself as a large “Singapore” sitting next to one of the three largest trading blocks in the world or number four -- number three, everyone will get tired of negotiations and leave will fade away with some alterations to the current status. And I guess I'd just say that we think that all of these outcomes over the longer term will be -- are acceptable and we just would hope that certainty would come sooner than later. A final point on this is that U.K. interest rates recently decreased and will likely go lower even more as a result of both the Brexit situation and pressures from EU rates which are now generally negative across the board. And while most people predict real estate values will go down in London, we believe that once all of this settles out, that quality properties with assured income may very well be valued higher than they were prior to Brexit. This we think will be driven by investors' thirst for yield. Turning to interest rates. Similarly, there are now $10 trillion of bonds globally yielding negative returns. Many of those who own these bonds acquired them years ago and have made excellent capital returns by riding them into negative territory and they continue to receive coupons on the bonds until maturity. So they're happy and continue to hold onto these positions. But over the coming years, as most of these bonds mature, institutions are going to be forced to look for new options for a lot of this $10 trillion of cash. And rather than invest in new bonds with negative yields on day one. And in essence there are only four places globally for this money to go and the first is U.S. Treasury. The second is corporate and asset backed bonds. The third is equities and the fourth is real assets. And real assets, predominantly real estate and infrastructure which are specialties are among the safest long duration investments for earning decent returns in this context for the type of institutions that own these securities. As a result, we think we will continue to see substantial capital flows into real assets which should be very beneficial for our business. Lastly, and because we often get asked this question, I wanted to make a couple of comments on why we're still able to acquire assets for value in a world where interest rates are zero and the S&P is at 2200. We often -- and it really boils down to a couple of simple factors. And in essence, we generally acquire assets in off-market means. And this enables us to find transactions that aren't generally available to most others and often allows us to avoid auctions most of the time. When we say off market, it generally means one of three things. First, we have significant capital to deploy in the sectors we operate in. And as a result, when a seller considers who might buy their large asset, we're usually at the top of the list because as transactions get larger, that list usually gets shorter. Second, we operate in many markets around the world with a very global footprint and that enables us to ensure that we can move capital when markets are out of favor, we can be there with a bid when others just aren’t set up to do the same. And third, we have operating capabilities and a reputation that enables us to usually bring more to a transaction than just capital. It allows us to underwrite with speed, certainty and often find additional values that others might not. Our business is based on utilizing these competitive advantages to source transactions, followed by working the assets we acquired to enhance the returns over those that might otherwise result without our resources. In total, these advantages should enable us to continue to earn returns in accordance with those we state and as they compound over time that can meaningfully add value to all of our clients and investors. With that, operator, we'll turn the call back to you and we'll take -- Brian or I will take any questions that anybody has.