Dave Bonaccorso
Chief Financial Officer
Sure. So let me give you a 3-part answer. The first one relates to what you're talking about on Page 5, the traditional ALM sensitivity. So historically, we've been pretty neutral. We typically talk about shades of slightly asset-sensitive or slightly liability sensitive. This quarter, well, every quarter, we do our ALM run mid-quarter. And at that point in time, we probably had more cash than we finished the quarter and that as normal. And so I think that's adding to the asset sensitivity you see in that illustration. But I think some of that has gone away in my estimation. So that's dimension one, is the pure ALM sensitivity. Dimension two is just pure napkin math and when you look at our floating rate liabilities, which is to say, interest-bearing non-maturity deposits, those are roughly $1.7 billion. And then look at our floating rate assets, those are about $525 million between loans, securities and interest-earning cash. So the assets have a 100% beta and if you try to solve for what the beta needs to be. On the liability side, you get to around a 31% beta needed to break even. And our cycle to date non-maturity interest-bearing beta has been 35%, and we model 34% in our ALM run. So I think that speaks to near-term benefits from rate declines, though some of that does drift or fade away over time just because of the way assets reprice over time. And then I guess the third dimension is just go instrument by instrument on the balance sheet. It's just working your way down. Cash, of course, if you believe Fed funds rate expectations, that will probably be a drag down the road, but that's by far the smallest of the components. Securities, we have an AFS portfolio. It's been fully repositioned or almost fully repositioned with a book yield of 4.44%. So there's not much you can do there. The HTM portfolio has a book yield 2.40%. And so we can reinvest cash flows off that portfolio at much higher rates. We expect about $76-or-so million payouts from that HTM portfolio in the next 12 months. So that gives you a sense of what could reprice there. And then on the loan side, year-over-year, we expect our loan yield on a monthly basis to be about 20 basis points higher at September 26 compared to September 25. So that's with a flat balance sheet and payoffs at market rates. We had a 3 basis point increase this quarter, so that tracks with that. And obviously, if we have loan growth on top of that, that would give you some upside to the loan side. And then on the deposit side, we had the small increase this quarter. But of course, the Fed funds cut came in the last 10% or 15% a quarter. So the benefit we got from that wasn't as large as if it was translated over a full quarter. Our spot rate of deposits came down from 6.30% to 9.30%. So that, I think, speaks to the benefits we're going to get from further cuts moving ahead if they play out. So that quick look at instruments suggests that there's quite a bit of benefit to NIM expansion in a falling rate environment.