Kenneth Bockhorst
Analyst · Andrew Buscaglia of Berenberg. Your line is open. Andrew, you may be unmute
Yes. So maybe let’s just on the copper pricing, again, as a proxy for brass costs. Let’s talk about maybe what pricing look like in the fourth quarter here comparatively. And then we can talk about kind of the blip, I think, the market seen here in the very recent past. So and if we tick that sequentially through 2019, we started the year with a more favorable copper price position on a year-over-year, that rate of influence moderated as the year progressed. And really the fourth quarter, as I mentioned, had modest price cost dynamics in the margin, meaning, $275, where we spent most of the fourth quarter was basically on par year-over-year. Obviously, with copper now in that high $250 range, I think, a lot of that is in large response to Asian markets, quite frankly, in terms of productive – projected, industrial and business demand and the uncertainty there is surrounding healthcares and other things. If I could predict where that was going, I probably wouldn’t be on this phone call in this capacity, I’d be counting my money somewhere else. So I think we just look at it over the long-term and say, we’re coming off a year, where we had favorable cost dynamics with copper input pricing, largely being in the $270 or $275 range for a large part of the year. I think, when we look forward, we just assume that to some regard, that could be an unfavorable headwind. And so we’re just cautioning on that. Again, that’s a single element of our margin equation. As we’ve talked about, historically, there’s a lot of positive dynamics to our margin profile, both at the gross margin level and at the operating margin level. But we’ll continue to caution that, that metaphorical stairway to heaven that everybody just assumes with mix and average sell price and operational improvement and copper becomes this thing that continues to to step up, and that our normalized range of 36% to 40%, all of a sudden becomes 38% to 42%. We keep coming back to and I keep reminding folks, we still are operating in an oligopoly, primarily in the North American market, rational. But still, price focus competition comes along over time and beats that margin expansion down over time. And when you introduce into that, the dynamic of a potential copper price change, combined with again, as we experienced a little bit here in the fourth quarter, some of our installation projects being on a relative basis, lower-margin installation revenues, we just continue to think, hey, we’ve got six quarters of operating in the higher-end of that normalized range. That feels good, and we’d like to continue to be there over time. And copper is a big variable of that. So I kind of meandered there through that, but wanted to give you a broader view toward operating and gross margins beyond just copper. And then the piece I didn’t mention, of course, is the consistent point we’ve talked about is with average sell price being a big part of our top line, we continue to believe over time while still investing organically in the business. We can leverage our SEA spend that leads to then expanding EBITDA margins over time.