Anu Subramanian
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. As Whitney shared, we are off to a great start to the year. We delivered strong results in Q1, exceeding our guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. I'll begin with a discussion of our first quarter results, before turning to our guidance for Q2 and the full year. Unless stated otherwise, the comparisons I will make refer to the first quarter of 2022 versus the first quarter of 2021. Total revenue in Q1 reached $211 million, up 24%, driven by strength in Bumble app. As we mentioned in our previous call, we have continued to see the dollar strengthening against many currencies, including the British pound and euro, leading to a $5 million FX headwind in the quarter. We also saw approximately $2 million negative impact in Badoo from our decision to discontinue operations in Russia. Combined, these impacted our Q1 year-over-year growth rate negatively by 4 percentage points. At a group level, paying users grew 7% to slightly over $3 million, and our people increased 14% to $22.76, primarily driven by mix shift towards Bumble App. We are pleased that both paying users and our people continue to propel our overall revenue growth. Bumble App continues to perform well, with Q1 revenue growing 38% to $155 million. We saw headwinds due to FX of approximately $2 million, which impacted our year-over-year growth rate negatively by two percentage points. Revenue growth was driven by an increase in paying users, which was $1.8 million, up 31% year-over-year. We added 134,000 paying users sequentially, up meaningfully from the 108,000 be added between Q3 and Q4. A number of factors contributed to the strong growth in paying users, including robust MAU trends, healthy engagement and attention, along with several product enhancements in Q1, such as the redesigned Beeline feature. Bumble apps ARPPU increased 5% to $29.18. ARPPU decreased 5% sequentially, primarily due to mix shift as a result of international expansion and also the negative impact from FX. Now, moving on to Badoo App and other. Starting this quarter, revenue from Fruitz, which we acquired in January of this year will be included in this section. However, due to different reporting definitions, we have opted to exclude Fruitz paying users and our people from Badoo app and other KPIs at this time. We will revisit, adding them once our integration is complete. Badoo App and other revenue in Q1 was $56 million, down 4% year-over-year. We saw headwinds related to FX and the Ukraine conflict of approximately $5 million, which impacted growth rates negatively by eight percentage points. Additionally, Badoo App, by virtue of the geographic and social demographic profile of its user base, continues to be more exposed to macro headwinds, including COVID and inflation. We expect these factors to continue to be a challenge in many of Badoo's core markets in the near-term, adversely impacting users' propensity to pay and overall monetization. Badoo App and other paying users declined 15% to $1.2 million. Our total paying users decreased 106,000 sequentially. We lost approximately 60,000 paying users between Q4 and Q1 in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. These three markets had a higher impact on paying users versus revenue due to lower than average ARPU. As a reminder, we only saw one month of paying user impact in Q1, and we expect Q2 to reflect a full quarter decline of approximately 120,000 to 130,000 paying users across these three markets. Badoo app and other ARPU was $13.51, up 6% year-over-year and up 1% from the previous quarter. The increase in ARPU was due to geographic mix shift away from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, offset by FX headwinds. Now, turning to expenses. Total GAAP operating expenses were $192 million for the quarter, down 32% year-over-year, primarily due to IPO-related expenses we incurred in Q1 last year. Excluding stock-based comp and other non-cash or one-time items, our total non-GAAP operating expenses were $161 million. Cost of revenue was $56 million and grew 21%. The increase was driven by higher in-app fees as revenues have grown. As a percentage of revenue, cost of revenue was 26% compared to 27% last year due to reduced subscription fees on Android, which has dropped from 30% to 15%. Sales and marketing expenses grew 39% to $58 million, representing 27% of revenue, up from 24% last year due to increased marketing spend and headcount-related expenses. G&A expenses were $32 million or 15% of revenue and product development expenses were $16 million or 8% of revenue compared to 9% last year. Q1 net earnings were $24 million compared to net earnings of $323 million last year, which included a one-time $442 million tax benefit related to restructuring at IPO. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $50 million, up 8% and representing 24% margin. We ended Q1 with total cash of $309 million. We also generated positive free cash flow of $14 million compared to the negative cash flow of $48 million we reported last year. Now, moving on to our financial outlook for Q2 and full year. Our outlook represents our current expectation for revenue and adjusted EBITDA based on the visibility we have today. We have factored in two key considerations into our outlook: First, the continued appreciation of the US dollar versus other currencies, even relative to the rates that we saw in early March when we first shared our full year outlook. Based on the movement we've seen since our last earnings call, we expect to see incremental headwinds from FX on both Bumble and Badoo. Second, incremental in-app fees we expect to pay as a result of adoption of Google Play billing, which took effect on April 1 and will be fully enforced on June 1. As a result, for Q2, we expect total revenue between $218 million and $221 million, representing a growth rate of 17% to 19%. Our Q2 outlook is impacted by FX headwinds of $9 million, which is $2 million incremental to what we had estimated in March. Our outlook also assumes approximately $6 million of headwinds related to the conflict in Ukraine, primarily in Badoo. Without the impact of FX and the Ukraine conflict, our total revenue growth would have been 25% to 27%. We expect Bumble App revenue between $16 7 million and $169 million, representing a growth rate of 31% to 33%, supported by accelerating net adds. This assumes a negative impact of $5 million from FX, which is $1 million higher than what we had estimated in March. Excluding FX headwinds, our growth rate would be 35% to 36%. We estimate adjusted EBITDA between $51 million and $5 3 million, representing 24% margin at the midpoint of the range. This includes additional fees as a result of adoption of Google Play, which is approximately a two percentage point headwind to our margin. For full year 2022, we are maintaining our revenue outlook of $934 million to $944 million, consistent with the outlook we shared in March, which contemplated approximately $20 million of headwinds related to FX and $20 million related to the conflict in Ukraine. The current FX environment remains highly volatile. And if the current rates continue through the rest of the year, we estimate we will see an additional $8 million of FX headwinds, not anticipated during our prior call, bringing total FX headwinds for the year to $28 million. As a result, if current FX conditions persist, we would expect reported revenue to come in at the lower end of our guidance range. Excluding the impact of FX and the conflict, the revenue growth rate would be 28%. For Bumble App, we expect to be at our previous guide of 34% to 36%, which includes approximately $15 million of FX headwinds, $4 million higher than what we had originally estimated. Excluding FX, our growth rate would be 37% to 39%. With respect to adjusted EBITDA margin, our full year outlook is between 24.5% to 25%. This now includes the previously communicated $16 million of fees as a result of enforcement of Google Play billing, which is approximately a two percentage point negative impact to our margin. Moving forward, we remain very focused on executing on our long-term growth strategy with strong financial discipline. And with that, thank you, and we can open it up for Q&A.