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Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Bloomin’ Brands Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow management’s prepared remarks. It’s now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mark Graff, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Graff. You may now begin.

Mark Graff

Management

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With me on today’s call are Liz Smith, our CEO; and Dave Deno, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial and Administrative Officer. By now, you should have access to our fiscal fourth quarter 2018 earnings release. It can also be found on our website at bloominbrands.com in the Investors section. Throughout this conference call, we will be presenting results on an adjusted basis. An explanation of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our earnings release on our website as previously described. Before we begin formal remarks, I’d like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements, including a discussion of growth strategies and financial guidance. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Some of these risks are mentioned in our earnings release, others are discussed in our SEC filings, which are available at sec.gov. During today’s call, we’ll provide a recap of our financial performance for the fiscal fourth quarter 2018, an overview of company highlights, a discussion regarding progress on key strategic objectives and 2019 guidance. Once we’ve completed these remarks, we’ll open the call up for questions. With that, I’d now like to turn the call over to Liz Smith.

Liz Smith

Management

Thanks, Mark, and welcome to everyone listening today. As noted in this morning’s earnings release, adjusted fourth quarter diluted earnings per share was $0.30 and combined U.S. comp sales were up 1.6%. This was a terrific quarter and represented the fifth consecutive quarter of positive U.S. comp sales. For the total year, all U.S. concepts finished with positive comps, including an impressive 4% at Outback. This represented Outback’s highest annual comp sales result in six years. In addition, adjusted EPS grew 25% on a comparable 52-week basis in 2018, which was well above our initial guidance expectations for the year. This overall performance was the successful combination of a multi-year effort aimed at strengthening our differentiation, improving brand health and setting the brands up for success over the next three to five years. These results were also a testament to our extraordinary team, who demonstrate our principles and beliefs and show the enthusiasm and dedication in always putting the customer first. I want to thank everyone for making a difference each and every day. Our number one priority remains driving healthy profitable sales growth across the portfolio. Beginning in 2016, we took the necessary steps to reduce discounting, while also investing in incremental levers to accelerate growth. This includes $50 million of food and service enhancements, shifting media spend from mass marketing to digital personalization, the Dine Rewards loyalty program and the rapidly growing off-premise business. These investments have helped to fortify the core business and expand our reach to new and existing customers. We will continue to leverage our scale, portfolio of brands and data analytics to enhance engagement with higher returns. Importantly, the significant upfront investments that we have made in the 360 degree customer experience are largely behind us. We are now beginning to fully monetize the…

Dave Deno

Management

Well, thank you, Liz, and good morning, everyone. I’ll kick off with a discussion around our sales and profit performance for the quarter. I’d like to remind everyone that when I speak to results, I’ll be referring to adjusted numbers that exclude certain costs and benefits. Please see the earnings release for reconciliations between non-GAAP metrics, and their most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures. We also provide a discussion of the nature of each adjustment. Before I begin, it is important to note that our Q4 2017, results included 14 weeks, versus Q4 2018, which had 13 weeks. The additional week in 2017 fell between Christmas and New Year and includes many of the business days of the year. This week had the following impacts to our fourth quarter 2017 reported results. Total revenues improved by $80 million, fourth quarter GAAP and adjusted EPS improved by $0.12, and GAAP and adjusted operating margins benefited by 190 basis points and 170 basis points, respectively. For purposes of today’s call, when I refer to fourth quarter 2017 results, I’ll be referring to comparable 13-week results that remove the impact of the additional week from my discussion. For additional reference, both the reported and the comparable financial metrics for revenues, EPS, and operating margin are included in the Q4 earnings release issued this morning. With that in mind, our fourth quarter financial results versus the prior year were as follows. GAAP diluted earnings per share for the quarter was $0.12 versus $0.01 in 2017. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.30 versus $0.18 last year. This represents an impressive 67% year-over-year increase. The primary difference between our GAAP and adjusted EPS is related to certain impairment restaurant closing costs and severance excluded from the 2018 and 2017 fourth quarter results. Total revenues increased…

Operator

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Michael Gallo with C.L. King. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Liz Smith

Management

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Yes, I just wanted to delve in a little bit on margin guidance. Obviously you’re guiding to a significant improvement again in margins despite a meaningful labor and other headwind. So I was wondering if you can give us some more color on what some of the bigger buckets of productivity initiatives are and as you look beyond 2019, how we should think about further productivity opportunities, all things being equal to move that operating margin up? Thanks.

Dave Deno

Management

Sure. Good morning, Michael. First of all, we were very pleased with the operating margin expansion in Q4 of 210 basis points. It’s something we pointed to during the year and they came through in a big way. So we see that momentum continuing on into 2019, first and foremost, we’re – as Liz has mentioned in her remarks that we’re going to be driving traffic at a nice margin. So that’s going to be number one, because we’ve invested in the core experience and a lot of those investments are behind us. And it’s important now to monetize those investments. We see off-premise growth at Outback and Carrabba’s, our loyalty program and some of our CRM engagement to help us build sales. So as I mentioned earlier, we’re now past a lot of our large cycle investments and we see margin expansion coming forward. But beside sales, the productivity piece is a big part of it. And we expect at least $50 million of productivity this year, and we’ll see that in the years ahead. How are we doing that? By simplifying – continue to simplify our operations, we are making the investments in technology, we’re doing a really great job in improving our management of our actual versus theoretical food cost management program, we have an opportunity to work – we’re continuing to work with our suppliers and that’s been coming through for us. We’ve opportunity in managing our beer, wine and liquor business. Labor costs have been good for us in a tough labor market, because our turnover, especially at Outback is among the lowest it’s ever been, and it’s just a hats off to the Outback team in accomplishing that. So – and then we also have opportunity on the facility side in our restaurants, which was a big opportunity for us in Q4. Liz has mentioned, the advertising piece, which we’ve gotten higher ROIs with lower spending, especially on digital. And finally, we continue to be dedicated to holding flat on our overhead structure as we go forward. And then lastly, as you saw – that’s with the U.S. And lastly, as you saw 220 basis point expansion I believe in our operating margin in Brazil and that’s a higher margin business for us and they had a really great fourth quarter. And we expect that to continue on this year. So those are the components of our margin piece for 2019 and beyond.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Jeffrey Bernstein

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you very much. Looking more at the top line – looking at 2019, your guide 2% to 2.5%, I’m wondering if you can maybe prioritize, what you think of the biggest sustainable drivers. Just wondering where you think the industry compares to that 2% to 2.5%? And then if you can maybe just give an update, I know you mentioned qualitatively the off-premise and the Dine Rewards and remodels, but can you just quantify where we stand in terms of mix of off-premise and contribution from Dine Rewards and delivery? Thank you.

Liz Smith

Management

Sure. So just to kind of unpack that. On the industry front, we see the industry environment as being a comfortable environment from the consumer. You see all the metrics that we see, so low unemployment, there’s high disposable incomes. So we think there will be a positive macro environment. However, we do expect to see negative traffic in the industry again, and we expect to have positive traffic across of our portfolio. So we – and what gives us that confidence? Well, that’s exactly what you said. We’ve spent the last 2.5 years removing discounting and qualifying significant incremental sales layers and that large investment is behind us and we’re seeing the momentum and we’re able to monetize that. Number one, you always have to go with how are we executing and the core experience in the box. And all the $50 million that we’ve spent, you’re going to see more, we’re taking more at – during the Analyst Day about other food and investment qualities but you’re going to see the elevated customer experience is driving really healthy traffic in the box and we certainly have seen the in-dining experience traffic strengthen significantly and that’s going to continue. The second is that we have qualified incremental layers that differentiate us. We’re really pleased with how our off-premise business is doing. We are on track for that 25% to 35% of sales. In Q4, the off-premise business grew about 18% for us, okay, and a total of 11.2%. We see that continuing. All the investments we’ve made to build our database infrastructure and shift from what I call mass marketing which is less efficient to more mass personalization is really driving high return on investments on our advertising and we’ve built a pretty formidable database and infrastructure now to be able to monetize and speak directly and continue to raise that ROI. You see that reflected in the ongoing gains that we record quarter after quarter in the Dine Rewards program, which has really succeeded at the top end of our expectations. We’re in the first quarter there, now that we have those data in those profiles, we can monetize and speak directly to them. So kind of more on that to come. So I think it’s this confidence in the core business, confidence in the incremental sales layers that we’ve done and confidence in the overall platform that we’ve built to support it.

Jeffrey Bernstein

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

Jeff Farmer

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

Great, thanks. Just have a follow-up and then a question on the follow-up. You touched on this, but advertising as a percent of sales in 2018 and where do you think that number can go in 2019?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes, we don’t disclose in great detail as far as what advertising as a percent of sales will be, but we expect as a percent of sales to continue to move downward a bit, much like it has in the last few years. We’re really pleased with return on investments, Jeff, that we’re getting on the digital piece and also helping us manage our advertising costs.

Jeff Farmer

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

And then, similar vein, but again, you hit on this with Bonefish with some color, but where do you stand at Outback, in terms of reduced marketing levels that the reduced discounting and couponing and again, what sort expectation as you move into 2019 from those things?

Liz Smith

Management

Sure, so across the portfolio and Outback was on that journey as well, we have reduced discounting over the last two years by 25%, which is a huge amount over the past two years. We believe that journey is completed in 2018. And now we have the ability to lap and monetize that, plus the investments as we go forward. So we don’t see that reduction continuing. We took the difficult but right decision over the last two years, it’s behind us and now we can enjoy the healthy traffic benefits in high-margin benefits that come to healthy traffic growth.

Jeff Farmer

Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Glass with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

John Glass

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thanks, good morning. Liz, can you talk a little bit about specifically the benefits you’re seeing right now from Dine Rewards in the quarter, if you’re willing to quantify kind of what benefit you think to the portfolio or Outback that’s contributing to comps? And secondly, you mentioned off-premise, but can you maybe provide some detail on specific to delivery, those units that have delivery, what kind of sales lift you’re getting from those at this point? I’ve got one follow-up.

Liz Smith

Management

Sure. So the benefits of Dine Rewards and again John, what I’m really excited about is the ability to go in even more detail when we have time, on March 11 to really unpack kind of what it means that be on this data journey that we’ve been on, and the benefits that accrue to that. So I’ll answer that and then I’ll turn it over to Dave to talk about the delivery question. We currently have 8 million customers. We are reaching new and existing users with that. We are introducing and cross fertilizing customers across our brands. So the portfolio is working beautifully and we’re introducing people to our other brands, we’re increasing existing customers’ frequencies. We’re seeing our lifts off the program as we said at the high end of any of our expectations, don’t want to break that out. We also see ourselves very much in the first inning of this and what do I mean by that. Well, we now have 21 million customer profiles and we know what they like, when they like and how they like it. That gives us the ability now to market directly to them on one on one in a personalized manner and we’ll start doing that this year and that we’ll be able to drive enhancements to the loyalty program which make it continue to keep building, so it’s been a terrific program for us over the last 2.5 years. We’ve got a lot of growth ahead of it. Same thing on off-premise, which I’ll turn to Dave, an incremental high growth business and he can talk the particulars.

Dave Deno

Management

Sure. Good morning, John. We had 18% growth in off-premise in Q4. We have delivery in 488 restaurants. It’s now 14% of our business. We saw a good growth in the restaurants, in restaurants that have delivery, just like in restaurants that don’t have delivery. So we feel very good about the incrementality, we’ve been talking about the 80 to 85% range now for quite some time. So like I said, we have a very good feel for what’s going on with delivery and expect to grow that business as we go forward.

John Glass

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

And then just unpacking the margin comments about 2019, you mentioned anniversarying number of your investments you made in 2018, you’re getting to healthy traffic, that helps margins. Are there any offsetting investments that you’re making? I mean in other words, do you – is there, is the $50 million, is that a net number and you’ve got some investments to make particularly in delivery or do you think a lot of those investments are now behind you and in the base of the margins?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes. The real big investments that we made in the restaurants over the last few years are behind us. But we will always, to help grow traffic, we will always use some of the productivity and some of the traffic to continue to grow our business, but our margin expansion guide includes that. But the big investments are behind us, John. So we will continue to do that. And also embedded in our guidance is very prudent pricing. We want to make sure that we give the customer great value and so, that will be a part of our – that’s part of our guide as well. So the big investments are behind us. We will always look to improve the customer experience and productivity is a big part of that along with traffic and prudent pricing.

John Glass

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Go it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thank you. Two different ones if I may. First, Dave, you mentioned in an answer to a previous question about margins beyond fiscal 2019. And I’m, maybe a little bit of a preview on the March 11 Analyst Day, because I think it’s the question a lot of us want answered. What do you think, I mean at this point, I mean as you see the current cycle and your overall best outlook, what an annual margin gain expectation for Bloomin’ should be longer term? And I’ll ask that question, should we get it from the store level, should we get it through G&A leverage, should we really expect it to be top line driven? So I mean, are you beginning to think about, you kind of – and maybe an annual basis point increase, is there a longer-term margin increase or margin turn – a longer term level, excuse me, that you’re targeting, when might that level be achieved whether in three or five years. So really just asking at this point to help us think a little bit longer term, because that’s obviously be a very key part of your story at this point?

Dave Deno

Management

Absolutely. And as we’ve mentioned, we felt that we’ve had a 200 basis point opportunity in margins and we’ll lay out all that in great detail on March 11th, but let me just talk a little bit about how we’re looking at today. And that is, first of all, healthy traffic at the restaurants as we made our investments and continue to improve service as a big part of it. But as this also John, it’s productivity, so your question about it if it’s coming out of the restaurant P&L, absolutely, it will come out of the restaurant P&L as well, especially if we look at facility management, energy management, food cost management, all things I talked about earlier is an important part of it. And then we also are working very hard and have worked very hard to doing to manage our overhead costs. So we will see leverage on our – maintaining our overhead flat going forward. And the teams here in the non-customer facing business are really, really, really – it’s really important. So that will be part of the overall overhead management as well. And then I – oftentimes, we don’t get questions about this. Let me just add, Brazil is a big part of our company and they’ve got high margins and growth and that mix will continue to help us. So it’s restaurant margins, overhead, Brazil as we move forward over the next few years and I think you saw a major down payment on that in Q4 and as we go forward into 2019.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

That’s great. And do you think to just holding on to that 200 basis point number, I mean, are you willing to say at this point, I mean is that a five-year type of expectation, 10-year expectation "medium or long term." I mean is there, I mean at this point in time frame that you’re willing to give us a heads up on?

Dave Deno

Management

I’d say medium term, John, I don’t think it will take five years.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Right, well that’s helpful color in and of itself. And in terms of your business composition or portfolio management, obviously Brazil kind of being in the place that it is and hopefully benefit from some stability in that economy, I’m going to ask the question about Bonefish. I mean, at least, it wasn’t – from our perspective, it wasn’t necessarily clear that, that was going to remain a long-term part of your portfolio. But there are some earlier comments that were made fiscal 2018, I think was a record profit year for the brands and you’ve obviously just made a very high profile of hiring Jeff Carcara. So can you talk about what you think – what the opportunity is for that brand and maybe what Jeff can bring with his exposure to not – that level of dining and even higher level than Bonefish dining might mean for that brand over the next couple of years?

Liz Smith

Management

Sure. So Bonefish had a terrific year. We knew the traffic was going to be down. We planned for that, it was anticipated. All you’re wrong on our guidance because we were really pulling that discounting out and getting back to our roots of being the unchanged chain shifting to all fresh fish, returning rights to the local markets, getting out of national, giving the menu and fish buying rights back to the managing partner and returning to its roots of fresh fish served at really, really attractive prices. What’s the heart and soul of Bonefish has always been the ambience and the vibe. And we are really excited to have Jeff to join us. We think he will be a wonderful addition to the team. We’ve made great strides in the experience and simplification, but Jeff will continue to elevate that in restaurants periods as he has proven to his career, his most recently as you know, was head of Barteca. And so I think you know the vibe, the energy, it’s all coming back. He certainly is tremendously excited about the opportunity and the potential on – we are looking for positive traffic and positive growth from Bonefish this year and excited about that. We’re blessed to have versatile leaders across the organization. And so after having a record year at Bonefish driven by our – Dave Schmidt, our President of Bonefish, we’ve been able now to ask Dave to go over and be CFO of Outback and apply his deep operational and financial expertise on that, on our largest brand. And so all around, we’re feeling really good about the portfolio of having the right people in the right seats at the right time. So we’re very bullish.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Go ahead.

Dave Deno

Management

We also had a – the CFO at Outback, we had a retirement in supply chain and we have a really talented executive going down there to lead that function. So it really is a combination of talented people coming together.

John Ivankoe

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Excellent, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Brian Vaccaro

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks and good morning. I just wanted to circle back to the margins and maybe we can level set a bit starting with 2018 and could you quantify or be a little more specific on the savings that you realized in 2018 and sort of across the P&L? And on labors, could you give a few examples of where you found some efficiencies in that line?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes, on labor, I mentioned earlier, it’s been a big robust labor market. But one of the things that our teams have done, especially at Outback is our old – our turnover is really, really down. They’re doing a great job managing the teams and everything and moving forward, and that saves on training costs and other things like in a big way. And so, not only we’re able to pay our people, incent our people, but we’ve experienced some talented people remaining with our company, and that’s a big impact, Brian on the P&L.

Brian Vaccaro

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, understood. Would you be able – if you would want to quantify where hourly turnover is these days at Outback?

Dave Deno

Management

It’s below the industry…

Liz Smith

Management

Well below.

Dave Deno

Management

Well below and prefer not to get into that, given it’s a competitive advantage, but well below the industry .

Brian Vaccaro

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

All right. Fair enough. And as I think about the opportunities in 2019, speaking with the productivity [indiscernible] has been a source of savings for a couple of years, how much is left there? And I guess as we’re thinking about simplifying ops further you mentioned as an initiative in 2019, maybe just a couple of examples there?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes, I think for us, we’re looking at putting a new POS device for instance and that will help simplify operations in our restaurants. Carrabba’s just did a fantastic job, putting in a new kitchen line that really simplified operations and helped on productivity. I think on the food cost management, not only with our suppliers, Brian but also managing our actual versus theoretical food waste management, but also beer, wine and liquor. We have you know frankly over tens of millions of dollars left to go. I mean, that’s a big part of our $50 million a year in productivity is managing suppliers, work from our suppliers, managing beer wine and liquor and continuing to manage our food cost. I’m not going to get into details by year and those kind of things, because again it’s proprietary, but it’s a big part of our $50 million of productivity we’re committing to.

Brian Vaccaro

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

All right. That’s helpful, And then last one, Dave, you said on the G&A front, the goal to keep overhead flat. Just wanted to confirm that means dollars you’re talking about, sort of dollars similar in 2019 to 2018. And a lot of moving pieces and G&A, what’s the adjusted base we should be thinking about in 2018 that you’re comparing that to? Thank you.

Dave Deno

Management

We will be in dollars flat, not percent of revenue flat, dollars flat and we’re looking at $276 million.

Brian Vaccaro

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Perfect, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Slagle with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Slagle

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. You talked about some of the drivers behind the same-store sales outlook for 2019, but in terms of the brand performance, do you still expect Outback to dominate or should we expect this to balance out more in 2019, perhaps if there is one of the brands you see having the best opportunity for a near-term inflection?

Liz Smith

Management

Yes, great question. So we see continued strength on Outback, but the other brands, we are – we see comp store growth and traffic gains across the portfolio. As we have now finished the journey of removing discounting, which has tough traffic results over – 2017 and 2018 and are able to monetize those investments. So we’re looking for growth across all the brands and traffic growth across the portfolio. And again, we’ve talked about this thing, the elevated experience, the healthier traffic, Dine Rewards, the data personalization, the strong local marketing feeling really good about the portfolio as we enter 2019 in the prospects for each brand. Do I have one course that – I think we’ll have a breakout, will they get mad at me, if I picked one because I think they’re all enthusiastic about the year. And I think you’re going to see strength across the portfolio.

Alex Slagle

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Great. And one question on delivery, if you could sort of talk about your confidence in the ability to operationally manage all this incremental traffic. I guess, some of it at peak and maybe a little bit more about…

Liz Smith

Management

We’re doing it.

Alex Slagle

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

The changes you plan to make with the interior remodels.

Dave Deno

Management

Sure. The good news is, we’re doing it and it’s interesting, some of our highest volume restaurants also have the highest volume delivery. There were some concern with the high volume restaurants to be able to take it and it’s just so great to see. And when we look at our interior and exterior remodel programs, we will make sure we have the room available for our partners to be able to – in their pump out rooms for off-premise to be able to execute the concept. That’s a big part of our remodel program. So, it’s across the portfolio and we already are doing it and we track speed of service. We track all those kind of things, customer satisfaction, and we’re pleased to say that we’re continuing to make progress each and every quarter on all those key measures.

Liz Smith

Management

I think if you’ve ordered – just if you’ve ordered our delivery, I think you can see that leaps and bounds improvements in technology and efficiency and kind of where we’re going and that’s driving momentum across all of the stores. So I’m really proud of the team.

Alex Slagle

Analyst · Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Francfort with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Gregory Francfort

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. I have two questions. The first is just where have you been running on blended pricing either in the fourth quarter or the full year of 2018? And then my other question is, it seems like a lot of the messaging is it the margin expansion is going to come from the store level expenses and I guess, I would have thought maybe more of it was going to come from G&A and why are you at the gap you are to the industry on G&A and why isn’t there may be more opportunity on that line?

Dave Deno

Management

Sure, we will see significant leverage in G&A as we go forward and that’s a big part of our productivity. So if I was not clear on that, my apologies. But that’s a big part of our opportunities in G&A, especially as we manage the non-facing cost, so that’s a big part of our program and in one that we will continue to work through. That’s number one. And I’m sorry, the other part of your question?

Gregory Francfort

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Pricing, pricing within the fourth quarter.

Dave Deno

Management

We disclosed the change – that the overall change in check, includes mix and pricing, we do not get into the pricing detail. But I can tell you as we go forward, we will be having moderate pricing increases below inflation, because we want to make sure that the customer experiences top notch.

Gregory Francfort

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. And maybe if I can do just one follow-up on Dine Rewards, where have you been seeing the benefits? Are those in customers coming to the brands, they’re are going to more frequently or are you seeing them sort of trial across brands, more than you have in the past? I guess as you have looked at the data, and I guess bringing up more information on this in a couple of weeks, but, where are you seeing the benefits on that line?

Liz Smith

Management

Yes, both and I think that’s what’s really exciting. We’re seeing our existing customers experience our other brands and so increase their entire frequency, it is at right across our ecosystem and we’re also seeing kind of new users come in and experience the brands. And so we’ve introduced a lot of folks to Fleming’s for example and now they’re choosing Fleming’s to go for their annual celebration of X or Y and so, it’s this working across the portfolio, that’s made it kind of that one plus one equals three. And that will be something that we’ll talk in more detail about in March

Gregory Francfort

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning. Can you hear me, okay?

Liz Smith

Management

Hey Sharon. We sure can.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Great, thank you. For a number of different reasons, revenue growth has lagged, comp growth over the last three or four years. I’m just wondering, is this the year where we see revenue growth kind of at least keep pace with comp growth, that’s not exceed the rate of comp growth? And then how do you think about that revenue growth longer term? Is it more optimizing average unit productivity with Dine Rewards and delivery and off-premises or do you think there will be more expansion opportunity with one of your other brands domestically going forward?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes, we see expansion opportunities, as Liz has mentioned we see expansion opportunity for Outback in the U.S. where we think we have at least 50 more incremental sites. We think we have, we’ve talked about Brazil getting to 100 Outbacks. We now believe it’s, it’s an opportunity for us to expand beyond that and we’re doing that work right now. In the last four out the five – four, five the last Fleming’s sites that we have opened have been really, really strong. And so we feel good about the Fleming’s opportunity going forward. I think Sharon, to the other thing is when you look at revenue growth, Liz has mentioned that we are always looking at our portfolio from time to time, we will refranchise restaurants and so that will in itself reduce revenue, because we’re not getting the company sales anymore. But absent that, the comp growth in the expansion opportunities that I just talked about, I think our chance for us to, to grow revenue, but also take a look in your modeling, if you do any refranchising, so that will diminish revenue growth, even though it might be a better way to go to market in that particular geography.

Liz Smith

Management

Yes, the only other thing I’d add is that, you know, we have always been very disciplined about new unit growth and saying across all of our brands. You have to earn the right to grow. We’re feeling increasingly enthusiastic about Bonefish and Carrabba’s and we’ll continue to fill that box and drive that productivity, but they are – were opened to their coming a point, given how well we believe those brands are going to do, to taking kind of these top rated brands and going prudently with – into new units if it makes sense. We’ve proven ourselves to be disciplined stewards of capital, but we do see that on the horizon because we are very confident in driving the average unit productivity.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

And I may have missed this, but did you give any update on how the off-premise’s only locations are kind of fairing and whether that’s an opportunity for growth?

Dave Deno

Management

Yes, that’s an opportunity for growth, it continues to be a test for us. We have – some of them are working quite well. Some of that aren’t doing as well as we had hoped. But it is an opportunity especially as the industry moves forward and we’re looking to refine that with further menu reductions and also some more systems work. But right now, it’s a test for us and we’re continuing to learn as we go forward.

Sharon Zackfia

Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning. A couple of questions on delivery. When you talk about completing the roll out fully in 2019 across Outback and Carrabba’s, how many units are you thinking that ultimately gets to? Is it the full system across the two brands domestically and also, as you are now ramping that back up and looking for significant margin expansion, can you talk at all about the delivery economics and how that layers in to that margin expansion?

Dave Deno

Management

Okay. On delivery, because we’re seeing an incrementality, the margin, the margin is very helpful to us. We won’t have as high a margin because we’re not delivering alcohol and beverage as the in-restaurant experience, but the given the incrementality of the business, that helps us. But also we’re growing the business that we already have the 480, we have are growing year-on-year. We expect to have around 600 restaurants when we’re done. Yes, we will see. Then it could be higher than that depending on where we end up, but that would be our guess right now and we look to finish that in 2019.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Great. And if I could squeeze one more in, just wondering about the check growth that you’re thinking about in Outback in 2019, I mean, it’s been running close to 4%, you’re not going to be taking much price and I recognize, the delivery investments are kind of through at this point. So are there going to be other efforts to improve the mix at Outback, or are you going to kind of pull back on that, in an effort to continue to have the traffic pick up the – this lag?

Dave Deno

Management

We’ll continue to – we don’t want it for competitive reasons, obviously to get into any kind of detail, but we’ll continue to manage the comp through traffic and mix as we always do, but the one thing I want to assure you is on the pricing side. We’ll continue to watch that carefully, like I had mentioned previously, in the call.

Andrew Strelzik

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I would like to turn the call back to Liz Smith for closing remarks.

Liz Smith

Management

We appreciate all of you joining us today and we’re really looking forward to updating you on our portfolio at our Investor Day on March 11. Thanks all.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.