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Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 25, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bloomin' Brands Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Results Conference Call. During today's presentation all parties will be in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation the conference will be opened for questions. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Chris Meyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chris Meyer

Analyst

Thanks, Angel. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on today's call are Liz Smith, our Chairman and CEO; and Dave Deno, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial and Administrative Officer. By now, you should have access to our fourth quarter 2013 earnings release. It can also be found on our website at www.bloominbrands.com in the Investors section. Throughout this conference call, we will be presenting non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted restaurant level operating margin, adjusted income from operations, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, adjusted diluted earnings per pro forma share and adjusted EBITDA. This information is not calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP and may be calculated differently than other companies' non-GAAP information. Quantitative reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our earnings release and on our website as previously described. Before we begin our formal remarks, I'd like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements, including our discussion of growth strategies and financial guidance. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance on them. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Some of these risks are mentioned in our earnings release. Others are discussed in our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 4, 2013, and subsequent filings which are available at www.sec.gov. During today's call, we'll provide a recap of our financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2013, an overview of company highlights, a discussion regarding progress on key strategic objectives and finally, guidance for full year 2014. Once we've completed these remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Liz Smith.

Liz Smith

Analyst

Thanks Chris and welcome to everyone listening today. We are pleased to share with you our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2013 as well as related company highlights and our thoughts on 2014. As noted in this mornings early earnings release, our adjusted fourth quarter diluted earnings per pro forma share was $0.27, up 35% over the prior year. Our reported fourth quarter core domestic comp sales increased 1.4% which included a traffic increase of 0.3%. This marks the 16th consecutive quarter of positive traffic for our core domestic concepts. Consistent with the past three years, our brands once again meaningfully outperformed the segment in the fourth quarter. The core business significantly outpaced the KNAPP Casual Dining index for sales and traffic by approximately 320 and 400 basis points, respectively. We have now outpaced the segmenting sales for 17 consecutive quarters. Also in Q4, all four core domestic brands posted positive comps and continued to take share in a volatile industry environment. This resulted from elevating every element of the 360 degree customer experience, a review by concept as follows. At Outback, comp store sales were up 1.1%, representing 290 basis points deep versus KNAPP and traffic was positive at 0.5% or 420 basis points better than KNAPP. We had two primary LTOs in the quarter, including back by popular demand, the successful combination of Steak and Lobster and Butcher Cut, which was a new platform that showcased our steak authority and performed well. It is another example of the continuous innovation that has allowed this concept to maintain its relevance with the customer. Q4 was Outback's 16th consecutive quarter of positive traffic and they widen their gap to KNAPP from the third quarter. At Carrabba's, comps sales were up 0.9% for the quarter. This was 270…

Dave Deno

Analyst

Well, thanks Liz, and good morning, everyone. If you have reviewed our earnings release that we filed this morning you have noted that there are several important details embedded in our Q4 results in our 2014 guidance. I will spend a good deal of time on today's call working through those items one by one to provide transparency into our results. With that in mind I'll kick off discussion around sales and profit performance for the quarter. As a reminder, when I speak to net income and EPS I'll be referring to adjusted numbers and excludes certain costs and benefits. Please see our earnings release reconciliations between our adjusted non-GAAP metrics and their most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures. We also provide a discussion of the nature of each adjustment. Our fourth quarter financial highlights versus the prior year are as follows. Adjusted diluted earnings per pro forma share were $0.27 versus $0.20 in 2012, an increase of nearly 35%. GAAP diluted earnings per share for the quarter increased to $0.46 versus $0.15 last year [Technical Difficulty] versus $25.8 million for the fourth quarter a year ago, GAAP net income [Technical Difficulty] versus $18.4 million in 2012. Comparable domestic restaurant sales at our core domestic concepts increased 1.4% all traffic increased 0.3%. Our Q4 comp sales results included a favorable trading date impact of 0.4%. We maintained a positive gap to the KNAPP-TRACK, with an estimated 320 basis point beat per comp sales and a 400 basis point beat on traffic. We have out passed the segment sales for 17 consecutive quarters. Total revenues increased 5.2% with $1.1 billion adjusted restaurant level operating margins were 15.9% this year versus 15.4% a year ago. On a GAAP basis restaurant level operating margins for Q4 were 14.8% this year versus 15.4% a…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question will come from the line of Mr. John Glass from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

John Glass - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Hey, if I could just go through the pieces of the 2014 guidance for a moment, first, just your decision to back up the amortization in Brazil, you're effectively saying that is $0.03 to $0.04 accretive in 2014 is that the right way to think about that?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. As we looked at the earnings part of the business we look at EBITDA, we look at restaurant margins, we look the cash flow we [Technical Difficulty] of the business and so that's about $0.03 as part of our $1.21 fiscal calendar guidance.

John Glass - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. And you think about the G&A, can you parse out a couple of pieces and some had to do easier G&A comparison. How much of the increase in G&A is just the investment spending?

Dave Deno

Analyst

We probably -- John will get into that too much for competitive reasons but I think we talk about, Liz and I talked about the need to invest in our international business and really power up that business and invest in investment technology especially mobile marketing. Now these are sizable investments. We have zero overhead growth plan for our core businesses, I mean excuse me our core departments and we've got sizable investments to grow our business in China and in technology and mobile marketing.

John Glass - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. And then just the last one for you, the 22 stores that you're closing were those cash flow positive or they negative, is there any material impact year on EBITDA number or the margin associated with the Outback brand?

Dave Deno

Analyst

No, they were John they were modestly negative. I think for us its all about focus. We've got of growth levers at our disposal rather than spending time on these restaurants that averaged about $2 million in sales and spending capital on them we decided to make it difficult decision and close them. Now it does open it for relocation opportunities, does open it up for new development opportunities in Outback but we felt that given the two opportunities, excuse me the opportunities to address these restaurants John we decided to take the decision to close them.

John Glass - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Buckley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Joe Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thank you. And good morning. Couple of questions, you talked about the EPS growth guidance for this year obviously being lower than the 20% long-term target, do you think the 20% long-term growth target is in tact beyond 2014 or some of these factors that you're seeing coming to play looking ahead?

Liz Smith

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Joe. So we feel confident in the long term earnings potential and growth of this business as we always have. But as you know on an annual basis you plant some seeds and they come to improvement and we feel very confident, but sometimes the timing of the investments don't line up so there is linear delivery of lets say that 20% over year-over-year. And for us 2014, we're going to deliver strong year but most importantly we are going to make the investments ahead of growth to drive the long-term health and profitability of the portfolio. So we won't peg an annual number year-by-year, I definitely would just reaffirm that our confidence in the long-term growth and profitability of the business remains in tact and 2014 will be a strong year particularly relative to the industry but also a year where we balance that strong annual delivery was investing ahead of growth which is kind of a philosophy that we've always had. So I'm not going to peg it to 2014, 2015, 2016 I think we all know there is a lot of moving pieces but we certainly feel good about the long-term.

Joe Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And then just a menu cher [ph] part of that question, I guess, Dave do you have a sense what the tax rate will look like going forward, well, a lot of moving parts there as well. But will be in this higher range do you think going forward?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Well, part of that is the Brazil tax rate is in the high to low 40s, so that's consolidated in our results and as we become more profitable the FICA tip credit is fit until we lose some of that [Technical Difficulty] pieces from the change in the guidance on tax 27% to 29%.

Joe Buckley - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have Andy Barish, Jefferies.

Andy Barish - Jefferies

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Can you guys give us sort of a quick lunch update as it stands to-date just in terms of what you're seeing with any cannibalization, how you're differentiating that experience and then may be the check average or mix issue start to taper as you move through 2014? I'm just trying to get a sense of, we've seen the biggest incremental impact on check average of lunch or does that continue at a relatively similar base?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. Couple of things Andy first of our check average in the consolidated basis are holding up quite well. So there is no need to any particular concerns about [Technical Difficulty] as we go forward our check average [Technical Difficulty] just really important we've talked about that before [Technical Difficulty].

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. Your call will resume momentarily. Again, ladies and gentlemen we are just fixing the audio on the call. Yes, we will go live into 21.

Dave Deno

Analyst

Okay. So let me Andy – let me go back and answer your question, I hope I'm not fading out too much. But first of all the guest check at [Technical Difficulty] secondly, as we look at lunch comp sales, the lunch comp sales are growing in restaurants that had lunch opening at least a year [Technical Difficulty].

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by, your audio will resume momentarily.

Dave Deno

Analyst

Operator?

Operator

Operator

Please continue to standby. Your conference will begin shortly. Thank you for your patience.

Liz Smith

Analyst

I think we're back live, apologies I think we're having some AV issues of cutting in and out. I'm going to ask Dave, Andy to readdress your question and we'll go from there because of the loss time we're certainly happy to do a little longer if we need. So Dave?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. Andy, in response to your question of couple of things, first of all the lunch restaurants that have been open at least a year are comping positively, the lunch business is comping positively. The dinner check in our restaurants are growing and so our guest check situation in our restaurants is in good shape. And lastly, we do factor in some very modest cannibalization because the lunch business is different than the dinner business. We do factor that into our modeling and everything seems to be going quite well in our lunch restaurants.

Andy Barish - Jefferies

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have Michael Kelter, Goldman Sachs.

Ivan Holman - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Good morning. This is Ivan sitting in for Michael. Can you please talk about the progress of remodels, what are some of the key learnings from the process and can you help us understand how the sales lifts have been curing following the initial action?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. I'll answer the sales lift and then I'll turn it over to Liz to talk about some of the progress that we've been making. We still are seeing between 3% and 5% sales lift that's sustaining and working quite well and so we continue to expand our Carrabba's remodel and we will be working on Outback exteriors next but our Outback interior remodel program is about done.

Liz Smith

Analyst

Yes. The only thing I would add to that is, we talked about strengthening all elements in the 360 degree experience and never getting behind again on ambiance. And we've kind of lived that. So we finished the Outback remodel program, we're taking the same play book to Carrabba's this 40 last year, we're going to be rolling that you heard from Dave we're very happy with the lift we're seeing. But now in the spirit of never getting behind, we are now going to start touching the Bonefish Grill and we have a new design for Bonefish Grill every new restaurants that goes up in 2014 will have this new design and we will also be touching the original 150 those are in tests, we really like what we're seeing, we imagine employing the same strategy kind of that multi-year roll on Bonefish. In addition you'll see Fleming's upgrades and redesigns. So that philosophy of constant lease and temporizing is alive throughout the portfolio and you'll be seeing that over the next several years from us.

Ivan Holman - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Jason West, Deutsche Bank.

Jason West - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. Just one of the guidance, it looks like it implies and we're trying to work all the moving parts here but it seems to imply a pretty significant increase in restaurant margins like north of 100 basis points in 2014, just don't know, if we're doing that right or if that is correct could you help us out there?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. We talked about earlier and you just saw in our AK [ph] in Brazil, the consolidation of the restaurant margins in Brazil adds significantly to our restaurant margins overall, which is one indication I talked earlier about the power of that business. We see, will see large expansions in restaurant margins throughout 2014 because of the very profitable international, excuse me the very profitable Brazil business.

Jason West - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Is there anyway to isolate the Brazil impact within that?

Dave Deno

Analyst

No its large but I think would be prudent to just say its large at this point.

Jason West - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay and then just big picture on the EBIT margin outlook I think in the past and you mentioned it again today you've sort of referenced peer, the peer target that you'd like to get to, can you update us on what that sort of peer target is that you guys are shooting for on EBIT margins and sort of how long you think it will take to catch up?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. When we went public we talked about our 300 basis point opportunity in our company versus our peers as we talk today we've made over 100 basis point improvement in operating margins and we'll make some more improvement in 2014. So we think its still a few years out, but we continue to make significant progress each year on operating margins.

Jason West - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

John Ivankoe, JPMorgan.

John Ivankoe - JPMorgan

Analyst

Great. Actually on that margin conversation Dave, could you remind us where you are just thinking about 2014 may be in 2015 if you all talking about back of house labor scheduling potential KDS, more I guess sufficient preparation of your food what you do in restaurant versus out of restaurant, can you update us some of those initiatives and what benefit we could expect?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. We have really, sorry third year of doing this John. And as we look at the pipeline of opportunities in margins they continue to be very robust. So we will, in 2014, we will complete the benefit of the front of the house labor tool and if you look at our margins if you look at our margins in 2000 the Q4 2014 you saw the benefit of that that's very important, so we'll complete that. We'll start – we're in the process of starting the back of the house labor scheduling tool this year and that will be another big benefit for us. Then we move to what's very important for the company that a lot of restaurant companies have which is centralized inventory management and management of food cost through standard costing. That benefit is being built during 2014 the benefits will start to come in 2014 and will continue throughout 2015 and beyond and this is a big opportunity for us. Lastly, we'll continue to get supply chain opportunities, our supply chain organization continues to outperform the industry on managing food cost, those continue to get more opportunity on that. And then lastly is our high performance kitchen and KDS work that's basically adding computers automation to our prep tables in our restaurants and also laying out the kitchens more effectively. We're just starting on that. So that's really not included much in our 2014 guidance but 2015 and beyond we have a lot of opportunity. For just a recap year end front house labor back house labor then we move into centralized inventory management and food cost management through standard costing. And then finally kitchen design system and high performance kitchens all in our pipeline, this is not groundbreaking this exists in the restaurant business and we want to be able to take advantage of this.

John Ivankoe - JPMorgan

Analyst

Thank you for the update.

Operator

Operator

Jeff Farmer, Wells Fargo.

Jeff Farmer - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Great. Thanks. Carrabba's new menu was in test, it looks like for most of 2013, so I'm just curious if you guys can share any color at all on average check traffic impact, anything relative to the control group and how you think that might, the new menu might impact same-store sales for Carrabba's as we get into 2014?

Liz Smith

Analyst

Sure, Jeff. So just to be clear, the new menu is rolled out everywhere and actually we will start advertising that next week we're very excited about. We were clearly very pleased with how the menu behaved in test and we're happy to roll it national. When the menu is combined with the design so taking the two elements together, we're seeing that 3% to 5% lift which is pretty much consistent with what we saw when we did that kind of groundbreaking breakthrough on Outback. So we're very pleased with that. So we're expecting obviously the new menu which has enhanced variety, it has enhanced lightness, it has enhanced supportability, we're expecting that to perform very well. In terms of average check we're very pleased with how as effective that as we already have a pretty affordable average check vis-à-vis the quality of Carrabba's, its about 21, 21.50, so we've seen some movement around that, but frankly it was exactly what we wanted to see. So very excited on how that's going in, look forward on TV starting the first week of March.

Jeff Farmer - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Great. And just one other quick one on, I guess going back to Bonefish and what you can do there it sounded like you're pretty excited about what you're able to do on Tuesday nights. And again, you touched on it but as we get on to 2014 and 2015, how much more opportunity is there, it sounds like you guys are just sort of scratching the edge of the surface here and what you can do in terms of new food news there?

Liz Smith

Analyst

Yes. I think that's a really fair characterization. I mean we were pretty honest with you guys about all the things going on we got a little behind in innovation, we've closed that innovation gap. So Tuesday Tales on Lobster very successful platform for us. We're building on that. We're very pleased with how the core menu which is in test of this performing and that will be rolled out closer to the midpoint of this year, so obviously that's progressing very well and that will be an entire core menu overhaul with the lot of the culinary forward twist that customers expect and are really excited about. The other think that I would say on both issues that we've also added and updated our advertising in addition to the new menu in addition to the marketing platforms. We do things. We've scratched the surface on several initiatives with Bonefish you know we've talked about what lies in front of us, online ordering lies in front of us and enhanced happy hour lies in front of us, private dining lies in front of us, we really have to chunk this out. We feel confident and enough and I how things are going to roll out Saturday lunch this year, Sunday lunch performed extremely well at Bonefish, it has a really strong and loyal following. We've been working on a Saturday menu for lunch that will be rolling out this year. So just a lot of levers of growth and excitement and refresh coming for Bonefish and we're really pleased about how we're setting up this brand for a continued long-term growth.

Jeff Farmer - Wells Fargo

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Jeffrey Bernstein, Barclays.

Jeffrey Bernstein - Barclays

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Two follow ups actually one on the pricing, I'm just wondering would you give any color in terms of your outlook for pricing by brand and whether or not your goal here is to protect or I should say expand the margin or whether you're focused on rebuilding the traffic and therefore not necessarily looking to fully offset the pressure, I guess the question is x Brazil, as you think about 2014 by brand and kind of whether the goal is to expand the margin or kind of focus more on the traffic and let the margin fall where it may?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. I mean broadly Jeff, we will not use pricing to expand margins. That's been our philosophy from day one. We are going to be building traffic, pricing will not be the highest commodity cost. And so we need productivity and traffic to help close the gap. That was a successful formula in 2012, a successful formula in 2013 and that will continue. We don't breakout pricing in any kind of details by brand but I can say that it will be pretty consistent across the brands at roughly 2% to 2.5%.

Jeffrey Bernstein - Barclays

Analyst

Got you. And then, you mentioned a couple of times now the advertising, I'm just wondering that you can give some color in terms of what your spend was in 2013 by brand, it seems like it's a getting a lot of attention at Bonefish and for others. What do you think the ad expense uptick maybe in 2014 and I don't know which brand maybe as the greatest opportunity from that perspective?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Yes. The big thing for us that Liz talked about earlier is, advertising around our technology efforts and mobility will be – really stressing that. Again, we for competitive reasons we don't stress advertising by brand. But I think our advertising expense is a reflection of the work we are still doing on TV and media but also the importance of mobility and technology in our advertising.

Liz Smith

Analyst

I guess what I will add to that is, we are spending robustly against all three of our CDR brands behind a lot of news. So we are kind of very enthusiastic – we have real transformational food news and innovation across them. But as Dave said, Canada, a biggest from-to on a year-over-year basis is just some of the existing things we are doing in digital advertising and a heavy focus on social marketing ad channels and partnership with Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. Operating our website, enhancing our online ordering capability and payment, we got some pretty cool apps that have come out that are really doing well Outback 365. So just taking that constant innovation mentality even further into the digital world and our brand are responding in a great manner.

Jeffrey Bernstein - Barclays

Analyst

And just lastly I know you gave a couple of comments on the first quarter in terms of unusual, is there any kind of color as we look through 2014 in terms of potential trend of EBITDA or EPS growth?

Dave Deno

Analyst

No. Not really. I mean I think we try to update on Q1 on that. And some of that new news that we provide everybody given some of the weather impact we have had 200 basis points from the weather and through February. But on top after that Jeff nothing really unusual or different.

Jeffrey Bernstein - Barclays

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your last question Michael Gallo, CL King.

Michael Gallo - CL King

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. Just a question and a follow-up. Perhaps I missed it but how many units you are going to add to retail lunch to this year?

Liz Smith

Analyst

Yes. As we talked about – we are talking a staged multi-year roll, so we have never in the past spoken out or given a target for the number of weekday lunches that we are rolling out. We have always said it's going to be a multi-year approach. We will continue to do that and roll them out quarterly throughout the year. What we have said is that our analytics suggest that kind of 60% of the systems for Outback and Carrabba's would support a healthy weekday lunch. And we build to that number. So we are making progress over time and as we indicated we will give you guys quarterly updates on where we are but we don't tend to put – commit beyond that 60% number and kind of continued measured progress.

Michael Gallo - CL King

Analyst

Great. And then on the New Year openings, how many of those you expect to be in Brazil?

Dave Deno

Analyst

Well, we expect about half of our New Year openings between 55 to 60 guidance we gave to be in international. We won't break out specifically by country but a couple of things, Brazil will be our lead development vehicle and we believe we got 50 Outback locations there today and we believe over the next three to five years we can double that business that's kind of how we are thinking about it.

Michael Gallo - CL King

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then final question, if I could just squeeze one in, any view at this point on table tops you are looking at or testing or obviously you have varying commentary on this from a lot of your peers, so just wondering if you had any thoughts on that? Thank you.

Liz Smith

Analyst

Yes. Absolutely. So as you said, there is a ton of different tests going on in table top. And so consistent with our philosophy, we are doing a lot of research with our consumer and a lot of test in markets to find out what is the exact right use of in-store technology table-top tablets for our brands that provides true satisfaction to the customer. And so we have a number of difference tablet test going on in any of our different store tablets at the table, tablets for the server, the most important thing for this is to understand how and where it enhances the customer experience process. But also, understand the potential unintended consequences of having the technology in there. Right so, we are testing, we have a go slow to go fast, I would characterize our strategy has completely informed, walking closely. We intend to be a fast follower. But these things are really important to understand their long-term impact on the customer experience. So as always what you can expect from us is, is a lot of research, a lot of analytics and a very thoughtful decision on how and when we use them. And that's going to vary by the way by concept, right, because what might be an acceptable and good answer for Outback is not going to play in a fine dining environment. So we are on this, but as I said, when we do roll it out, it will be with our eyes wide open.

Michael Gallo - CL King

Analyst

Very helpful commentary, and congratulations again on the continued category outperformance. Thanks.

Dave Deno

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

I now hand the conference back to Ms. Smith for closing remarks.

Liz Smith

Analyst

We thank you guys all for joining us today. We appreciate the support and we look forward to updating you on our continued progress in our Q1 call in May. Take care. And thanks again.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this now concludes the Bloomin' Brands fourth quarter 2013 results conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.