Laurence Douglas Fink
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Ann Marie. Welcome, everyone. While the first 2 months of 2012 started with a lot of optimism, we, like the rest of the industry, witnessed the softening in our net new business beginning in March and lasting through the quarter end. I've discussed this quite a bit, the risk on and risk off, and I think the issues going on right now with all the uncertainty, which I'll talk about, has really created a change in attitude by investors as they are trying to redetermine how they should think about their portfolios, which I'll talk about quite a bit later. As Ann Marie suggested, global markets were down from the last quarter and down even more dramatically from a year ago, with the MSCI Barra World Index average in the second quarter down about 7.4% from a year ago. This uncertainty continues to be fueled by the fragility of the European banking sector, by the European sovereign debt issue and also the overall economic situation throughout the world today that includes China. This has put investors in a more of a defensive nature, and it is our job and we are spending a great deal of time with our clients in trying to help them think about how they should think about these issues. We all know where the safe haven assets are. They're in U.S. treasuries. They're in boons [ph]. U.S. treasuries today are trading below 1.5%. Boons [ph], at quarter end, ended at 1.58%. So we're talking about extraordinary low yield levels. We're talking about yield levels that are -- that cannot meet the long-term objectives of anybody. So the global growth -- so these safe havens over the long run may not be true safe havens. Global growth maintains muted. The most recent data from Bloomberg indicates that the real annualized GDP growth in the first quarter turned flat in the Eurozone, remained sluggish in the United States between 1.7% and 2.2% and fell to a level that people didn't think was going to happen in China, with China falling to a 7.6% growth rate, down from the first quarter of something close to 8.1%. This uncertain climate has shortened the horizons for decision-making and short -- and shaken the confidence of investors worldwide. But not only just investors have been shaken, I do believe CEO attitudes have been shaken by this. This is a big change from our perspective from 2011. Throughout 2011, despite similar type of volatility, certainly, the same type of issues we had to face, I do believe CEO behavior has changed much more this time than we've seen a year ago. I do believe CEOs have truncated their field of vision on top of all the truncated time horizons of investors. The issue that I think is really critical is that 1.5% in treasury yields equates to negative returns. 1.5% over 10 years as a return will not get you to a retirement. I do believe, and I was in Washington yesterday, I do believe the greatest crisis in America will be not health care in the next 10 to 20 years but the inadequacy of retirement throughout this country. Yesterday, a very large pension plan, public pension plan announced that their one year fiscal year return was 1%. They paid out their actuarial tables as 7 5/8%. Obviously, that type of mismatch cannot persist. As payout large numbers only destroys the corpus, creates a greater mismatch, and this crisis is only going to get worse if we don't find solutions to address it. Compounding the impact of low interest rates is the fact that people are living longer and longevity is accelerating. While longer life should be a good thing, people are going to have to work much longer to reach their needs as a retiree. This, in turn, will create issues for our younger generation wanting to enter the workforce. There will simply be fewer jobs, and our younger generation will likely have an increasing financial burden funding the retirement needs of their parents and families. I believe that in the future, this underfunded pension and retirement plans will be more significant for governments in the United States and other parts of the world. We believe at BlackRock, we have the tools and the ability to combat these issues. We are working with our clients in trying to have them focus on that. We believe it's important to start focusing on returns over long periods of times, which requires focus on what type of long-term investing, not investing in products but in outcome-oriented solutions. So this is not the traditional style box. And this is a much longer conversation, and we are having these types of very long but very exhaustive types of conversations with our clients in trying to help them navigate with these difficult situations. So for the remainder of 2012, unfortunately, all eyes are still going to be on politics and the economy. In the United States, we have elections in November, followed by the impending fiscal cliff and the sequester. This will likely create additional uncertainty and lead to more soft business sentiment and probably a reduction in consumer spending. The global regulatory environment will continue to be more difficult towards financial institutions, forcing more deleveraging, creating more compliant requirements. But let's be clear. Asset managers will share an increasing cost of this regulation. Europe will take, as I said earlier this year, anywhere between 5 to 8 years to sort out their issues. This is a long-term issue. There's no silver bullet. We are talking about transforming the social contract between government and their population. This cannot happen over a one-month, one-quarter, one-year situation. On top of that, the Europeans are going to have to find ways of growing in addition to these austerity plans. In the near term, as I said earlier this year, I expect the ECB to be more aggressive on rates to drive the euro close to parity with the dollar. This is one way that they could grow, find growth for Europe on top of these austerity programs by making them more competitive. This, on the other hand, is not a positive for the United States. If we have benefited, and our corporations certainly have benefited by having a weakening currency, and now our currency is becoming a more -- a valued currency, it will put some pressure on this country if the euro does indeed fall to a parity level. I think at this time, BlackRock assumes the euro is going to be falling to the $1.10, $1.15 area, but there are some people who believe it needs to fall lower. Let me talk about this. What does this all mean for BlackRock? Let me first start off in talking about people. As a global organization and a leader of our industry, we are committed to adapting our organization to meet the needs of our clients in this changing environment. As our clients' needs change, we have to change, or we will be less important for our clients. Change, when it is prescribed, when it is planned, is both necessary and healthy for an organization. That includes change to ensure that how we are delivering our performance to our client, that is also in our architecture and how we have discussions with our clients. We recently witnessed some turnover in our portfolio management group with the departures of Bob Doll and Dan Rice. We actually wish both of them well. While we endeavor to keep turnover low to assure consistency in our portfolio management teams, there will always be some level of turnover. We certainly will make changes whenever necessary to avoid even the appearance of conflict of interest. We use change to enhance our performance whenever that is an issue. Another change we saw this quarter which I'd like to highlight is totally unrelated to the portfolio management changes, was my good friend and partner's, Sue Wagner's decision to retire. This does not change anything within BlackRock. We are actually fortunate with Sue agreeing to joining the BlackRock board in October, and I am sure we will benefit from her insight, her intelligence going forward as a member of BlackRock's Board of Directors. Overall, our turnover at BlackRock remains to be very low, far lower than the rest of the industry. Our turnover rate at the MD level is under 1%. And turnover across the firm is also very low, approximately 4%, which is compared to an industry norm about 10% to 12%. BlackRock has always had a strong focus on talent development, including investing in our people, hiring top-tier talent with the ability to have immediate and a long-term impact on our company. As in the past, we are constantly attracting prudent leaders, who are excited to bring their deep expertise and client-centric philosophy to BlackRock. We highlighted Phil Hildebrand will be joining us October 1, formerly the head of the central bank in Switzerland, who will be taking a very important international role from our London office, working on solution-based relationships with our 100 most important clients. We noted earlier this year the hiring of Mark McCombe, who is now our Head of Asia Pacific and had a dramatic impact already on our business in Asia. We also have announced the hiring of many different investment teams, a number of investors in our fundamental equity team, where we were in need of upgrading due to performance issues. And we are very pleased with bringing onboard an entire emerging market debt team that will really enhance our position in global bonds and our positioning worldwide in the fixed income arena. So we are a organization which many people are seeking to join this organization, and I think we are in a very unique position unlike so many other financial services companies. And we are going to continue to find opportunities to bring in very high-talented people, high-talented portfolio managers to help us build and navigate together. I'm also proud to highlight that our incoming analyst class this year is over 200. It's filled with some of the best and brightest minds from the top schools globally. Providing oversight of our talent agenda and succession plannings, we are fortunate to have an extremely strong and active board that was recently recognized as one of the top 5 boards for strong corporate governance. I believe we were ranked 1 when I saw the analysis. They are highly engaged in guiding the firm's strategy overall. On an annual basis, our board conducts a comprehensive review of each of our core businesses, including results, strategy, outlook, succession and talent planning. Recognizing the importance of our human capital, each year, management and the board reviews our top talent across the firm, and we have complete review of succession plans at all levels. That meeting will occur in October like it's done for the last 5 years. So this is nothing unusual, nothing strange. This is what we believe. We need to have a high fiduciary standard, and this is what we believe working with our board to making sure that we review management succession issues across all our businesses, not just one business or one leader. We believe this planning makes a better and more resilient organization and differentiated organization among so many different firms that have had issues around talent. Let me talk about performance, which is the key to any investment management firm. We've had some notable performance in a wide variety of products supporting our key themes despite core global markets. We also recognize there are a few areas where we need to improve, and we are going to take action. I am pleased to say performance was strong across our fixed income, with our fundamental fixed income products demonstrating continued improvement and moving to the top quartile, with 71% and 81% of our active taxable fixed income AUM exceeding its benchmarks or peer median for the 1- and 3-year period. And particularly, our high-yield team, again, was very strong, with 80% of the AUM exceeding benchmark or peer median for a 3-year time period. And this was also were consistent with over 60% of the other assets benchmarked for a 1- and 3-year period of time. I am pleased to say our performance in our alternative products have been quite strong in some of the cases, reversing some weaker performance that we saw in 2011. Our fund of funds of hedge funds, BAA, has now had 13, I want to underline, 13 consecutive quarters of positive performance relative to the benchmarks and peers. Obsidian, our fixed income hedge fund, year-to-date is up over 20%, and it's clearly outperforming its benchmark and is now back to its high watermark or close to its high watermark going forward from last year. FIGA, our model-based fixed income product, is up 7% year-to-date and outperforming its benchmarks. And I'm even more pleased to say after -- now it has 14 consecutive quarters of positive absolute performance, not just relative performance, absolute performance. Our scientific active equity team, which as we were very public about 3 years ago, when it had some very poor 1- and 3-year performance numbers. Over the last few years, we've changed the leadership team. We've added many more portfolio members and also analysts to help us navigate this. And I'm pleased to say performance over its benchmark exceeds 67% for the 1-year and 85% for the 3-year. So we can now move from a defensive position, explaining what happened, to now going forward. We have the ability to focus on more positive opportunities for asset flow. The area where we still are not hitting as well as we need to, and that is fundamental equity. This is where we've had some -- where we hired new portfolio managers. We will be announcing other hires in the most recent months to come. We have less than 50% of our AUM above the one year. It's approximately around 44%. That is not acceptable, and we are working towards building that platform up and making sure those issues are addressed. We've also had a challenging year in parts of our multi-asset product area, Global Allocation, and it's a little under 50% in its benchmarks and its one-year period is actually in the 32% area right now. So we are working with that with Dennis Stattman, who's had a 10-year great track record. So Dennis, we have total confidence with he and his team, but these are the issues that we try to make sure that we stay on top of and address. Let me move on to regulatory. This uncertain regulatory environment and recent bank missteps in financial services will undoubtedly be called for even more regulation, and asset managers may be impacted. This is a new reality, and BlackRock is trying to stay ahead of the curve and preparing for increased global regulation. Let me just discuss money market funds. Being in Washington yesterday, I believe we are going to see the SEC finally come up for comment period a proposal. I don't know what the proposal is, but I think the gridlock within the SEC may be broken. I may be premature in talking about it, but that's the type of noise I heard in Washington. We have been publicly acknowledged -- we have publicly acknowledged the need to further reduce the systemic risk in the money market funds without undermining the money market funds' source of value to investors and funding to the short-term capital markets. We have remained -- we have maintained a constructive posture with the SEC, with the FSOC staff throughout this debate. SIFI designation. The Office of Financial Research is conducting a study of asset managers. We have encouraged them to try to be more transparent in their study. This study should be completed sometime in fall, and then there's going to be a likely comment period. So at this moment, I don't have any information what does that mean for BlackRock or any other nonbank organization that is being reviewed with the Office of Financial Research. So at this time, I can't give any more color on this, but we will learn the same time everyone else learns when the official proposal is introduced by the FSOC. Now turning to the business, our focus on our strategic themes continues to be to drive flows across ETFs, retirement, income and multi-asset solutions. So let me give you some of the highlights. Institutional investors generally remain to be in a holding pattern while the trend for active to passive continues. Globally, our institutional businesses experienced about a $4 billion net long-term outflows. However, they were strong pockets of growth momentum, including defined contribution and in official institutions. Our strategic focus on retirement solutions continues to gain momentum as our DC clients generated $7.8 billion of net inflows, slightly tilted towards passive strategies. Our Life Path offering saw significant net flows of $3.1 billion. In alternatives, there was a lot of noise this quarter. We actually redetermined what should be an alternative product and what should be just a normalized active product, and $2.4 billion of that number was the redefinition of the product. It was not an outflow, but on the net difference, it looks like an outflow. There was also $1 billion of capital return because of successful reasons when we paid off a product. We are seeing outflows in global ascent which offset some of the great momentum we had in other products, including our multi-strategy hedge fund, our emerging market hedge fund, our model-based fixed income hedge fund, FIGA, and our renewable energy fund achieved for our first closing this quarter. Internationally, flows were essentially flat as we witnessed again a mixed picture of clients' behavior. Obviously, in Europe, because of the situation in Europe, we've seen a real slowdown in client activity. Some clients are derisking their portfolios, worried about what this all means, and that's where we had an $8 billion active outflows, while others needed to add risk and we had $8 billion of passive inflows, largely index equities. So it really depends on the client, their situation, their liability. So there wasn't one dramatic trend. It was a mix of trends within Europe. Let me just turn to a pipeline. We are very pleased with our net new business pipeline totaling approximately $55 billion as of July 12, up $30 billion from first quarter. This pipeline includes $9.3 billion of mandates that were funded since quarter end and $45 billion of awards to be funded. While this increase of our pipeline is certainly positive, I should remind everyone it is important to note that much of the unfunded pipeline is in passive, and then two, this only reflects, I would underscore, only reflects our institutional business. The majority of that number is institutional business. I think we are reflecting our ETF flows quarter-to-date. But that said, the underlying momentum in a number of areas across the firm is being masked by the environment that we're living with. We have strong momentum in alternatives right now, both in the U.S. and Europe, which is creating increased diversification across our alternative platform. Similarly, performance across our EMEA fixed income products is leading to good opportunities in EMEA retail and with our financial institution platform. And I'm very excited to tell you that these investments that we made over the last few years are beginning to pay off. Let me move to retail, the U.S. institutional, then I'll move to iShares. Again, the industry flows were down significantly from the first quarter. Our retail franchise delivered strong results, with $1.6 billion in long-term net inflows globally, with particularly strength in U.S. fixed income. Again, most firms in mutual funds had outflows in the second quarter. In the U.S., retail and high net worth generated $2.9 billion of long-term net inflows across all asset classes. And we continue to deepen our relationships in the SMA business, or the Separately Managed Accounts space, yielding strong results with $1.6 billion of net inflows, largely into municipals, U.S. core and other fixed income products. BlackRock is the largest and most recognized SMA platform in the country, with now $55 billion of AUM. International retail, another example of risk-off in Europe. We had outflows of $1.3 billion, predominantly in equities, which is consistent across what we are seeing worldwide. Across our broad retail platform, though, we continue to innovate, we continue to bring new products to market. Internationally, we expect to capitalize in certain of our newer funds which are reaching their third anniversary with strong track records, principally our European credit fund and our high-yield funds in Europe. So once again, this rebirth, this renewal, this investment in investment teams, it doesn't happen overnight. We're getting assets, but you bring these teams in, you nurture them, they have good performance, and after 2 to 3 years, you start seeing inflows, and we expect that from those teams. Global iShares. Despite muted activity industry-wide, iShares captured $6.1 billion in net inflows. We captured over 50% of the market share of industry fixed income flows for the quarter, with $11.7 billion in net inflows, while derisking, which is impacting even ETFs, is impacting the flows in our international equity and emerging market funds. I would say organizationally, we have 250 ETFs, and when you see risk-off globally, BlackRock's ETF platform or iShares platform will probably be more harmed in outflows because we have a multitude of products that are international-based that they are, I would call, more aggressive type of strategies than the core, what I would call, the core index, the core fundamental strategies. So that is one of our explanations in terms of market share issue. I could talk about that later. This quarter, we started off strong because we did see some modest risk-on with $3.5 billion of net inflows so far this month, which is in line with our historical market share. Consistent with our culture of innovation and strategy into new markets, we launched 50 new iShare products and special emphasis on fixed income and local equity strategies, including our Green ETF launched in Brazil, which generated over $200 million in flows during the quarter. Let me move to BlackRock Solutions. BlackRock Solutions continues to be an industry leader. BlackRock Solutions continues to be in huge demand. The need for strong risk management and analytics made the second quarter a resilient quarter despite the market adversity. BlackRock Solutions revenues were up both for over-the-period-quarter and over a year-to-year basis. This is on top of a reduction of over $61 billion of Maiden Lane assets, so -- which I'll talk about in a second. So what is also important, we saw a 21% increase in growth in our Aladdin revenues, which now represents more than 2/3 of our BRS revenues. Just 3 years ago, Aladdin represented about 1/3 of the BRS revenues, and these are the long-dated, more sticky form of revenues as clients put Aladdin and other -- our Green package, our risk management tools onto their platform. The Aladdin pipeline continues to be very strong, and increasingly, we are having -- our clients are now adopting not just our fixed income platform, Aladdin, but our clients are now looking to integrate our equity platforms. So we are working on Aladdin conversions now on the equity side for some of our existing fixed income clients. And I do believe having now a full product array of equities and fixed income at Aladdin is going to make Aladdin even more robust. I just want to take a moment and say that because we're in a period of time that most positive is a negative and negative is a real negative in our atmosphere as of today, but there's one thing that I'm very proud of, and that is our successful payback of the asset disposition related to the Maiden Lane vehicles. People don't pause and think about this is money that the government gave to Bear Stearns to make the Bear Stearns merger work with JPMorgan and to stabilize AIG to a lot of negative press, a lot of uncertainty. The American taxpayers were paid back in full with interest, and there are still opportunities remaining for more profits with the remaining portfolio in these items. This is a pretty big success for our country, for our regulators in terms of what they are trying to attempt to do in stabilizing our economy back in 2008 and '09, and the results were very strong, and not enough success is being illuminated. We're spending more time focusing on failures. Let me talk about brand. Our investment in our recently launched Investing for a New World campaign continues to deliver results. Building our strong brand is an extremely important long-term commitment that we are looking to make retail and our name recognition in the retail side to become a much stronger platform branded name. This is not just in the United States but globally. We now have clients who have never spoken to us before, calling us and finding more about our offerings. We now have more hits to our internal website than ever before, and we're having more conversations with more FAs than ever before. Let me give a couple of final comments. In this climate, we're very proud of our platform. We are very proud of being a fiduciary, committed to always doing what is right for our clients' best interest. Once again, I'd like to really thank our employees for the continued discipline and diligence in serving our clients across the globe, and I want to extend my gratitude to all our clients who have trusted us with their financial future. With that, I'll open up for questions.