Laurence Douglas Fink
Analyst · Nomura
Thanks, Ann Marie. Welcome, everybody. I'm sitting here at The Plaza Hotel in New York City. We are, at this time, having a conference with over 250 of our clients. Our clients are confused. Our clients are really asking quite a bit of questions right now. This is a 2-day affair, and it's going quite well. But it's obviously very clear to all of us that the global markets have been very challenging, and it's producing some real stress with many of our clients. You're witnessing a record low yield, which changes the value of their liabilities. We are seeing declining equity markets and their gap between their assets and liability. In some cases, may be irretrievable, they may not be able to ever achieve their objectives. In most cases, I think that investors will do that, and they'll find ways to make it. But they're looking for solutions. It's going to be solutions that are heavily based on advice by BlackRock, and I do believe we are probably the best positioned to provide that advice because we are agnostic-related to our clients if they are looking for passive strategies, alongside alpha strategies, global strategies, domestic strategies with an overlay of risk management. There's no firm in the world that could provide that, and the information content that we're able to provide because of our footprint has been very helpful to our clients. So as we reflect on the third quarter, as we help our clients digest all this, the third quarter was obviously very challenging. It's exasperated by governmental policies worldwide, not just here in the United States. Politics and government are playing a major role in market performance and market volatility. Long-term investing have become more difficult as a result of this. When government focus on short-termism, when government focuses on blogs, when government is not focusing on how to best prepare an economy over a long cycle, it becomes really difficult for investors to focus on long-term investing, too. And this is one of the greatest issues that we are trying to confront with our clients. How do you manage these short-term issues, the extreme volatility, this enormous uncertainty but focus on long-term investing? This is not an easy answer because some clients, who may have 10-, 15-, 20-year liabilities, they may be judged by their shareholders or by their Board or by their pension fund committee by quarterly results. They may be judged by annual VAR if you are an insurance company, and that's how your regulators look at you. And so there's an incredible mismatch, and it's at, in my mind, severe preportions right now how accounting is forcing unbelievable short-termism. So we have the problems of accounting and governmental policy that, in my mind, is causing this great disruption in our pension funds and great disruptions in our marketplace, as fewer and fewer people are able to cope with the long-termism. So with governments not focusing on our long term and with governments, in many cases, just doing the wrong thing, we have many clients worldwide who are confused, frozen and looking for answers. But the markets are testing governments, and that we see that -- we saw that all throughout the third quarter, other [ph] market has tested the European situation continually. It's the incrementalism of the Europeans that really have tested the market, and the markets have resoundingly been pretty negative with this incrementalism of trying to fix the problems in Europe. Hopefully, this weekend, we will see something more than short-termism, hopefully more than incrementalism but a grand solution. A good example of what I would call government's failure is the European stress test, where just 10 weeks ago, the governments indicated in their stress test results that a bank like Dexia, a client of BlackRock's, has capital of 10%. They're on capital at 10%, only to have that bank nationalized a few weeks ago. And it's that sort of information and problems is really unsettling to the marketplace. I don't need to tell you that, but to me, this is just a glaring example of how government has really unsettled the marketplace. We just can't understand how they could have an institution that's cited in the top 10 most capitalized banks in Europe, then weeks later, nationalize it. It just doesn't feel right, and as a result, people are de-risking. And if you look at our flows, the most amount of de-risking and flows that we've seen in our high-fee business has been in our European mutual funds, which I'll talk about, where we saw the greatest amount of outflows because of fear in Europe, because of things like that have been the most severe. So worldwide, clients are de-risking. But I need to remind clients and I need to tell everyone, this is not 2008 and 2009. This is a confidence crisis, not a liquidity crisis. There's trillions and trillions of dollars sitting in the sideline, as we know, that's why we have such low rates. And if we can have a sensible, longer-term view beyond the next blog, we can have a sensible long-term positioning in fixing these problems, these structural problems in Europe. And our budget deficit and growth issues and job issues of the United States, I do believe investors would rush right back into the marketplaces, and we would have a very strong markets, which would then, in my mind, would propel the economy to higher growth rates. During the third quarter, we had substantial declines in the global equity markets, as Ann Marie discussed. S&P was down 14%. The European blue-chip index, the stocks was down 23%. The MSCI emerging market index was down 23%. The Hang Seng was down 21%. So if you think about that, investors who diversify their portfolio, thinking that was the right thing, it produced even worse returns, than those who stayed totally in the United States. As a result of market instability and this lack of confidence, clients worldwide have de-risked. They are delaying investment decisions, and that is what drove the negative flows across the industry and across the globe. Clients are now asking questions about how should they be reviewing their liabilities in light of these large declines, and we expect renewed activity very shortly. And -- but we're not going to have what I would call normalized flows until we have -- our clients have better understanding of their liabilities, and that will then determine how they then manage their assets and their duration. Let me talk about BlackRock. Ann Marie really did a great job in talking about our earnings and the texture of our earnings. As a report noted that we did have negative flows, much of it was related to -- totally unrelated to our merger. We don't have any merger-related outflows. One, in our pipeline, a significant change was related to a client who in-sourced $30-odd billion of index business, basically. And so -- but what I think the quarter really showed, and which really gave the leadership team of BlackRock great encouragement is our business model has proven to be an incredible differentiator. We have growth businesses that we have not seen in a long time. The diversity of our business model has really produced what I would call very good revenue flows and, importantly, a very good operating income ratios. So in these periods of uncertainty and volatility, we are really well-positioned today to serve our clients. And I think this is one of the great feelings we have yesterday and today with our clients here, and we're seeing that repeatedly worldwide, as we are working with more and more clients related to what we can bring to them. And we are seeing, as the information showed in our third quarter, we're seeing a huge increase in request for BlackRock Solutions products, as clients are trying to truly understand how to navigate their risk on a global basis. But what impressed me related to our quarter, and what we're really pleased with is that diversified business model. We had growth in BlackRock Solutions, a growth in SEC lending, in transition management, which is becoming a bigger business as clients are trying to reassert how they should position their portfolio. There's much more transitioning being done. And our BlackRock multi-asset class strategies, where clients are looking for much more comprehensive solution-based assignments. And so this is what's driving this 9% year-over-year increase in base fees. Even with these really difficult market headwinds, we saw continued organic growth across global iShares. We saw actually growth at our U.S. retail channel. We had growth in our defined contribution channel and, as I said, in our multi-asset class offerings. In multi-class offerings, we had over $3 billion of inflows across almost every channel. We are expanding the product range now into our retail products, not just institutional products. And they came across in almost every category, from alternatives, equities, fixed income. And clients are increasingly looking for strategies that rely on indexing or ETF products, as bar belling and multi-asset class strategies are what clients are looking for. And as I said earlier, no firm has that product mix. No one has the research in terms of how we can best position our clients for these complex, multi-asset class strategies. So the other thing about the third quarter, we needed to make sure -- we needed to find ways of continuing the growth, as we see some great growth opportunities. But we needed to make sure that we are pretty disciplined. As we did in terms of the market setbacks of '08 and '09, we were very disciplined and ahead of the curve in terms of what we had to do. We remain to be very vigilant in terms of making sure where we spend our money, we spent it well. The areas that we continue to invest, even with our margins above 40%, we were investing in our retirement solutions, we invested more in alternatives, we invested more in ETFs and currently [ph] , we have been able to invest in some very high-caliber professionals, who will help fuel our future growth. A good example is Mark McCombe, who is the new Head of Asia PAC, who will be joining us at the end of the fourth quarter. Another great example of our investing to making it our better platform, as Ann Marie discussed, our opening of our London new office. Since our merger, we were operating in 2 different offices, and we did move people around. But it was certainly not the best of circumstances to really grow one BlackRock. Everybody is in one common building today in London, and now our London office happens to be our largest city location in the world, bigger than our corporate headquarters in New York. And so things like this are, obviously, a cost, but we expect these costs will really generate more continuity, hopefully better performance as our portfolio managers are all together, but importantly, a better dialogue amongst our teams, which will produce better dialogues with our clients, that which would produce more opportunities for our business. As Ann Marie suggested, we continue to generate a lot of cash flow, $1.8 billion year-to-date. We have a long history of returning capital to our shareholders, and this year, we already increased our dividends. I need to remind everybody at 37.5%, we've repurchased $2.5 billion of shares as recently as June. And I could tell everyone today, we will continue to take appropriate steps to be well-positioned to capture opportunities. I am here to tell you, I don't know many opportunities at this moment, so I'm not here to suggest and I'm not trying to forewarn that I know of anything going on. But we will be well-positioned if there are opportunities to do things and, obviously, when it is not until the first quarter of the new year where the Board of Directors would look at our dividend policy. So let me go over some of the businesses in the texture of the industry and in BlackRock. Let me start off with retail. Our U.S. retail business had positive flows, which was unusual in our business. And while Europe and Asia saw de-risking, for a reference point, U.S. mutual funds, x ETS had $48 billion as an industry in outflows in the third quarter. BlackRock had $1.8 billion of inflows globally, but we had long-term flows of $3.5 billion. Our U.S. retail saw positive long-term flows in the third quarter of about $2.6 billion, really concentrating at some of our unique products: Global Allocation, our equity dividend, our high-yield funds. And this is where we actually believe more and more growth will go. We're seeing more and more people questioning core fixed income, where fixed income is only producing 2-ish-plus percent returns, and what is the future of rates going forward. So clients are asking for solutions, whether that might be in more high-yield solutions. There could be in other types of credit solutions, dividends as a solution preferreds, and these are some of the things that we're trying to really position BlackRock to handle our clients' needs. Cross-border or the European flows as an industry had $28 billion of outflows, and we had, as a firm, about $6 billion of outflows. And as I said, that's where the great de-risking was worldwide and especially in the mutual funds arena. Despite the $6 billion of outflows, we actually picked up market share, though. So we lost less than the industry as a whole. So the third quarter, despite all this noise, has told me we are picking up market share. We continue to position ourselves, and we're continuing to be innovative in terms of creating products that our clients need in this new paradigm. Let me talk about global iShares. We had, in the quarter, $10.8 billion of net new business. We had really positive flows in Europe, end flows in the U.S. As an industry, we saw about $28 billion of flows as an industry. But I should give a little more texture. Flows are significantly in July, and the industry did see significant slowdown in flows in August and September, as you're seeing that capitulation and that uncertainty even in the iShares product. In EMEA, we had $10.8 billion of global flows -- I'm sorry, in total. But EMEA was $6.5 billion of flows. Investors are looking for safety in the region, particularly in Germany. And importantly, we are as well-positioned in Europe as we ever have been in our ETF space. There is great amount of consternation and confusion in Europe related to ETNs or exchange traded notes, which are derivative-based products. There are some regulatory review of these types of products. There are many platforms, distribution platforms, that are now forbidding these sales of ETNs. And as the largest provider of ETFs in Europe, we have been a huge beneficiary. I don't expect these market shares to persist, but in the third quarter, we picked up 80% of the net new business in Europe in the third quarter. We do believe, though, in the United States, in Europe, we are going to see substantial regulatory review of these products. We have been very assertive in our statements that clients need to understand what they're buying. There needs to be greater transparency. There's a big difference between a physical ETF and a derivative-based ETN. And derivative-based ETN, you have credit exposure with that issuer. Some of these issues may be very fine credits, but the disclosure of what you're buying, what is the underlying product, is pretty opaque. And we are suggesting to the SEC and to other regulators, as they think about ETFs in the future, that we have much greater transparency, much greater clarity in terms of the product. We have always been pretty rigorous in terms of making sure that clients understand that ETFs should be physically-based. Obviously, in some cases, they're going to have some hedges or some derivative based around it, but we need to have -- even some of our products that we already have, 80% physical and some derivative base that we need to have much more clarity. So there's no -- as ETFs have grown, no different than we saw in the mortgage market in the '80s and then in the '90s and then in this decade, a simple product morphed into something that was very complex, and risks were contained in these products that maybe investors did not know. That was the failure of the mortgage market. As one of the founders of the mortgage market in the '70s, '80s and watching the failure of disclosure in that market occur, we need to be very assertive as a firm and outspoken that we will not allow at BlackRock the lack of disclosure on these products. We believe these products can have a huge future, and we need to be a lot more assertive in making sure that risk and complexity is understood by all investors. So we are trying to bring down the risk of ETFs. There is great amount of noise about it. There's a hearing today in Washington about ETFs, and we are trying to take a very large position in terms of making sure these products grow, this industry grows, and I would love for some of my peers to be as assertive as BlackRock in making sure we have a great industry and a great product going forward. In the Americas, we had $4.6 billion of inflows. We saw investors shift to fixed income in the U.S., offset by some outflows and equity ETFs. We're not happy with our U.S. results, and we are addressing it. We put in place a new global leadership team under Mark Wiedman, stepping up as the Global Head of iShares in September, and this is consistent with the steps we took to address the performance problems we had in SAE or scientific active equity, which is now paying off, which is actually one of our highest performing products this year as we reinvested in that product because we believed in it. Obviously, we are building a bigger, finer, great team. We're adding more teams to our ETF platform, and we believe with Mark's and all our great leaders of our ETF platform, we will once again reassert our market share in the United States. We continue to innovate in the ETF platform. We launched a few commodity and fixed income products in Europe. A tactical allocation ETF product is garnering a lot of attention. We believe more and more tactical allocation products are going to become larger and larger, as we witnessed from our Global Allocation mutual fund as one of the fastest-growing mutual funds. Institutional, the picture is mixed. We saw clients de-risking, while others took advantage of the steep market declines, and we're forced to rebalance. It really depends on some of our clients' needs. If a client did an LDI in 2003, and they're sitting with 6% long-dated bonds, they were less stressed than those companies that were under invested in fixed income in terms of having their core interest rate that they are looking for. And now, with the reduction in interest rates, they're sitting with some big gaps in terms of their income needs. Total long-dated outflows for BlackRock was $17 billion, driven by a single outflow in a passive fixed income strategy for a particularly planned liquidity needs. It had a de minimis revenue impact for us. And we continue to see modest outflows in our SAE, but we are -- we have enormous amount of dialogue now. And we believe, because of the performance over the last year and our investment in our SAE teams, we're going to start seeing new inflows. Quite frankly, many of our peers got out of this business, and we're one of the few organizations that have stayed into it, reinvested in it. And as I said, we stabilized it, we are seeing still some modest outflows. But the conversations we're having now with clients gives me a good feeling about the future in terms of the inflows there. As I said earlier, our institutional clients are really struggling with the low interest rate environment and the declines in the equity markets. So we are seeing very unusual behavior by our clients. Clients are looking for help, and that's what we're trying to do. Our performance, as I said earlier, in quant and multi-asset products was strong, and I'm very encouraged by our equity performance in its' positions well for the future. As I said earlier, low interest rates is going to have, most probably, some structural changes in fixed income in the next few years as an industry. It's very hard to see how interest rates going to continue to go lower to produce more than the 2.5% returns that we see -- as we see in the market today. And so what we expect clients to start relooking at within fixed income, this is a lot of trim business because they're going to go moving from maybe core types of fixed income strategies to credit strategies, they're going to go into a go-anywhere strategy in fixed income. Some of them may go into preferreds and other type securities. We expect out of the European situation, we hope to see a large amount of preferreds being issued by banks as a means to recapitalize, and although at this moment preferred to not consider Tier 1 capital in Europe. Hopefully, that will change as banks are trying to lobby their regulators as they are going through their stress tests again, as they're trying to achieve a 9% Tier 1 capital charge. At these low equity rates, it would be very powerful if the regulators would allow preferreds to be Tier 1, perpetual preferreds, I must say, not perpetual preferreds to be Tier 1. I believe there will be billions and billions and billions of dollars of interest in the world for that as bond investors need coupon or, in this case, dividends. The pipeline was confusing. We had this big outflow that Ann Marie talked about. I mentioned it earlier, where a client -- a very large client of ours is internalizing a $30-plus billion mandate. They're doing it for cost containment, and so this is something that will probably happen mid next year. But we are giving you an advanced word. So this is not going to happen any -- in this quarter, may not even happen in the first quarter, but we've been told this will happen sometime mid next year. But despite that, we've seen some very good flows, and what I'm also personally excited about, that we are seeing good flows in what I would call long-dated products, higher fee-paying products. We are continuing to see some real opportunities in our alternative space. We did have outflows in our currency type of products, and that's related to the big swings in dollar or in euro. But we did have to offset that. $1 billion inflows of our commodity products would totally offset these currency types of outflows that we saw in the third quarter. BlackRock Solutions. I just can't say enough of how this is helping us in the positioning in the new paradigm. During the quarter, we were hired by the National Bank of Greece, so we're inside working with the regulators of Europe and Greece to try to help them understand and ascertain the situation there. This is a similar assignment that we won in Ireland earlier in the year. We are working with more European banks than we've ever done in our platform. We have more opportunities in the Middle East, more opportunities in Asia than we've ever had before. In the quarter, as we noted, we have 13 new assignments. These are offsetting a lot of the 1 type of assignments that we had. This is totally offsetting the consistent reduction in our outstanding of advisory business as some of our clients are bringing down some of their troubled assets. And so this has been an extraordinary year so far for us. And more importantly, we are starting to see much more stickier revenues in our solution business, as we are winning more and more Aladdin-like assignments. We continue to have dialogue with a few substantial Aladdin assignments. And the last thing I would say about Aladdin, we did -- we are implementing our first Aladdin assignment that is not just fixed income, but it is now equity and fixed income. This what we believe will become a cornerstone of our growth as our equity modules are as industry first-class as our fixed income modules in our risk management. And lastly, as I said earlier, we continue to invest in our platform. I mentioned hiring Mark McCombes in Asia, but we hired Mark Taborsky in our BlackRock multi-asset class strategy. And we are very excited about the individuals that we are seeing who are looking to join our firm. We have never enjoyed such a position in which we could hire industry leaders to help us build this platform. This is across region and across product. So, in summary, I know I've been talking a long time, we are really uniquely positioned for this environment, I think better positioned than any organization that I know of in the industry. With the persistence of volatility in our marketplaces, with low interest rates, a low growth environment, all our investors are reevaluating their investment strategies and asset allocation decisions. We hope we're in that position to help our clients. That is our #1 job. Our job has to be an ally. We have to be there working alongside with our clients. We have a challenging world of demands, a better and a more robust range of solutions. We have higher demands that we provide value-added advice, better risk management tools. And so the demands on our time are growing. And that's why we have to continue to invest. So, in summary, we're pretty well-positioned here. I just -- I would like to thank all the employees for working with our clients, helping our clients and producing the results that we did in the third quarter. I'll open it up for questions.