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Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 4, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Builders FirstSource Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.bldr.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ms. Jennifer Pasquino, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the Builders FirstSource third quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call is Floyd Sherman, Chief Executive Officer of Builders FirstSource; and Chad Crow, President and Chief Operating Officer (sic) [Chief Financial Officer]. A copy of the slide presentation referenced on this call is available on the Investor Relations sections of the Builders FirstSource website at www.bldr.com. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Any reproduction of this call, in whole or in part, is not permitted without prior written authorization of Builders FirstSource. And as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, November 4, 2016. Builders FirstSource issued a press release after the market closed yesterday. If you don't have a copy, you can find it on our website at bldr.com. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, we may make statements concerning the company's future prospects, financial results, business strategies and industry trends. Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Please refer to our most recent 10-K filed with the SEC and other reports for more information on those risks. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The acquisition of ProBuild closed on July 31, 2015, as a result, ProBuild's financial results are only included in the company's GAAP financial statements from the closing date forward and are not reflected in the company's historical financial statements. We have, therefore, provided supplemental financial information of the combined company in this press release that is pro forma or adjusted to include ProBuild's financial results for the relevant periods prior to the closing date. The company will discuss these pro forma and adjusted results on the call. We have provided reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their GAAP equivalents in our earnings press release and detailed explanations of non-GAAP financial measures in our Form 8-K filed yesterday, both of which are available on our website. At this time, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Floyd Sherman.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thank you and good morning. Welcome to our third quarter 2016 earnings call. Before I comment on the business, I'd like to provide an update on the integration and progress against our cost savings, then I will give a brief recap of the quarterly results and turn the call over to Chad, who'll discuss our financial results in more detail. And after my closing comments regarding our outlook, we'll take your questions. Let's begin our discussion on slide 5 with an overview of the progress we've made on the acquisition integration and synergy savings. The cost-savings opportunity we targeted of $100 million to $120 million are right on track. Synergies are being captured through network optimization, procurement and G&A cost. For fiscal 2016, we expect to realize approximately $70 million in savings in addition to the $10 million we realized in 2015. These 2016 projected savings include $10 million to $12 million in procurement initiatives where scale improves our purchasing leverage, $8 million to $9 million in network consolidation savings and $49 million to $52 million in overhead and SG&A savings, including benefit and 401(k) plans. We've realized $20 million in the third quarter. This is before one-time costs to achieve these synergies, which are estimated to be $30 million in 2016. We have successfully completed 77 conversions to Builders' proprietary ERP system to date with minimal disruptions or issues. Turning to slide 6, our value-added sales of manufactured products; windows, doors and millwork in the quarter increased 4% versus 2015 and 7% year-to-date over prior year. We believe our company is well positioned to help homebuilders mitigate the impact of well-publicized labor shortages and increased cycle times through our manufactured and value-added products across our national footprint. We will continue to focus on growing our value-added products faster than…

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Floyd. Good morning, everyone. I will first discuss the quarter results on slide 8. As a reminder, we have reflected pro forma adjusted figures to include ProBuild's financial results prior to the closing date as adjusted for one-time integration, closure and other costs. For the third quarter, we reported net sales of $1.7 billion, a 3.1% increase compared to pro forma sales for the third quarter of 2015, excluding the impact of closed locations. To be clear, when we speak of closed locations, we are not normalizing for acquisition-related overlapping market closures. We intend to retain those sales. These are closures in non-overlapping markets that are closed for other business reasons. Sales, excluding the impact of closed locations, grew 3.1% over pro forma sales for the third quarter of 2015, benefited by an estimated 2.6% from commodity price inflation. We estimate that our sales volume, excluding inflation and closed locations, grew 1% in the new residential building end market and increased 2.8% in the repair and remodel end market, offset by declines in commercial and other. Breaking down our third-quarter 2016 sales by key product categories, value-added products, including manufactured products, windows, doors and millwork, were $659 million, up 4% from 2015. Lumber and lumber sheet goods were $588 million, up 7.3% from 2015, aided by commodity inflation in the quarter. Our other categories were down collectively compared to last year on a pro forma basis as our gypsum, metal and concrete products were impacted by the decline in multifamily and commercial sales. From a product mix standpoint, our value-added product categories made up a higher percentage of our overall pro forma sales as our prefabricated components, windows, doors and millwork categories accounted for 37.8% of sales in the third quarter of 2016, a 40-basis-point improvement over quarter…

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Chad. Turning to our outlook, I remain positive about the future of our company. I believe the housing industry remains on a trajectory of steady growth although hampered in the short-term by construction labor availability. This can be seen in the declines in new residential housing starts reported by the Census Bureau for the third quarter in the busiest time of the building season. I'm not surprised that the labor-driven constraints were a governor to the growth in the single-family construction on a year-over-year basis. Oil-related markets continue to be a drag on our overall sales growth. And we believe the overall multifamily market will continue its decline in the balance of the year. To mitigate the impact to our top-line, we are focused on growth with national builders, who are capturing share as well as leveraging the significant growth we are seeing in other markets such as the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, Utah. Our company is well-positioned to be the building supply company of choice for builders around the country, thanks to our geographic reach, enhanced product offerings, national manufacturing capabilities and superior customer service. Our focus will be to leverage our national scale and scale the capability to grow faster than the market with a focus on profitable growth on value-added products. These strengths are a scale and a potential leverage provided by the synergy savings combine to make Builders FirstSource an industry leader with significant growth opportunities. I believe we will continue to create value for our shareholders. And I attribute the success we've achieved in both the integration efforts as well as the strong results we've posted since the ProBuild acquisition to all of our hard-working and dedicated associates. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will take our first question from John Baugh of Stifel. Please go ahead. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Chad, maybe you could start, just refresh my memory where will we be on a delta as cash interest expense 2017 versus 2016.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

I think it will be probably $30 million or so. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Great, thank you. And then a broader question, as it relates to the labor and the impact on construction activity, are you not only seeing the starts delayed because of that issue but in the elongation as well of a start to a finish and, therefore, delay of when you're selling product to the construction trade?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah, I don't think there's any question about that, John. In our estimation, we think it's added somewhere between two-plus months to the cycle and with the labor delays and the labor issues that we're facing out there in the field. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then the declines that you're seeing in commercial, could you maybe elaborate, and I don't think it was much of the legacy Builders FirstSource business, but maybe you could define that market a little bit more granularly on what you're seeing going on there?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Well, lot of the commercial we do is up in the Northeast and part of gypsum business, and that's why you're seeing that impact in that product category. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then last question is just back to the lumber situation, so it would be our expectation, and I'm looking at 2017 not 2016, that if we assume lumber prices I guess at this level for the whole entire year, that that would be a favorable gross margin trend for you versus the headwind you'd see this year? And what would be the headwind if you could break it out on gross margin in basis points that you now expect for 2016 from lumber inflation?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Well I think the first part of your question was if lumber prices stay where they are today, yeah, it would be a slight positive for us, next year, and obviously shouldn't be much of a gross margin issue if prices are relatively flat. I think the second part of your question was full year 2016, what was the impact of commodity inflation on our gross margin, is that your question? John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Correct, and I guess you comparing to your prior where you had some deflation so there was both the impact negatively this year, but I'm really kind of trying to assess what that number was for the entire year on a year-over-year basis point degradation?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Well, for this year is probably a 30-basis-point drag. Last year, probably a full year benefit of, I'd say, 50 basis points to 60 basis points probably. John Baugh - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Great, thank you. I'll divert it to others. Good luck.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Rob Hansen of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead, sir.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. I just wanted to kind of revisit the system change over with ERP, are you on plan, are there any integration issues and is the kind of continued market share losses factored into that 4Q guidance?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

I would say, yes, the conversions are on right on track. That's probably been the brightest spot, in my opinion of the whole integration, so far is how well that process has gone. I think by the end of the year, we will be up to somewhere around 90 locations converted, which is consistent with where we thought we would be. As we mentioned last quarter, and as Floyd mentioned just recently in his opening comments, yes, we are busy with integration and it's taking up a lot of time internally. So to some degree I would think that's got to be impacting our sales growth or our share gains. And so yeah, when I'm trying to forecast or give some guidance on Q4, I'm certainly basing that off of recent trends that we've seen in sales, which would include some degree of those integration efforts in that level of distraction.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, great. And then what did you see in October here, I would assume that it's consistent with what you've reported in the guidance?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Obviously, I took October into account and the sales in October were consistent with that guidance I just gave.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then I...

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

We don't lose those extra days really until December.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

We haven't seen that. And the reason we're losing too, just so you know, one, is just because of the way the calendar fill, the other one is we have decided to move the New Year's holiday back into the end of this year just for various reasons, it's helping with our payroll conversion that we have going live at the beginning of the year. So typically you would never lose two days in a quarter, but this year we are, but one of those days it's specific to us.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. I think you also mentioned hiring some salespeople. Is this in new regions or is it because maybe you lost some people? What's kind of driving this?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

No, the salesmen adds are pretty much spread uniformly all through all of our regions. A little bit in the higher sales area, we definitely have added more people proportionately. But, no, a lot of it is due to the fact that we need more feet on the street, the – we need a lot of our sales people – our current salespeople are operating at pretty full capacity and we need to increase the amount of new customer adds and making sure that we're taking care of current customers as they expand their footprints and as they expand the number of subdivision offerings in the market and so forth. And so we just – we're trying to get ahead of it and we're trying to be more aggressive in the marketplace and it's an investment in our future and we found that this has really paid off for us in the past and a lot of this – I really attribute some of it to the diversion of our management time due to the integration of the companies. And when you're changing the number of things that we're changing for our operating people, when you start changing benefit plans, paid plans, commission plans, now also to get SOX compliant with segregation of duty, issues, you just get so much of your management time in the operations is spent addressing people questions and people issues, customer issues, related especially where you're doing computer conversions and changing people, and the way they're being invoiced and so forth. We really are focusing as much on the market development, market build and you've really got to stay a year ahead and we're making up for that ground. We're going to get ourselves back ahead of the game again. And the year 2017 for the most part, the integration issues will be behind us and I think the salesman add definitely fell short due to the fact that we were preoccupied with so many other issues. So that's the long and short of it.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Well, I appreciate the commentary. Thanks guys.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Rob.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Nick Coppola of Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Hey, Nick. Good morning.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Wanted to ask about your view of the cycle here. I know you talked about mid to high single-digit growth in 2017 for single-family construction. I wanted to just get your thoughts about the – I guess more color on the recent slowdown here. And your thoughts going forward on the residential cycle.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

In my opinion, I feel like the shortage of labor is a big issue right now. I think the demand for new homes is still very strong, I think during the second quarter and third quarter of this year, which, as Floyd mentioned earlier, during the busiest time of the year as far as the amount of building going on, it makes sense that you're going to hit kind of that labor availability ceiling during those busier quarters, and I really think that's what we were seeing reflected in the single-family starts. So we're still building more houses than we were a year ago from a single-family standpoint. And so, we solved some of the labor issue over the last year. I think, it will continue to get solved, but I still think over the coming years labor is going to act as a governor. I think, the demand is there to carry improved building conditions for several more years. But, I think, it's just going to be kind of at a muted growth rate because of the availability of labor.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah. And I would agree with what Chad is saying and I would add one other aspect to it. It's not only the availability of labor, but it's also the cost element that's associated with that labor. The cost are inflating at a very, very concerning rate and for builders and especially for the large multifamily project developers, this is a real issue and in many cases, especially on multifamily, those projects have been laid out and bid almost a year before they're really started and their labor factor is factored in. And when all of a sudden before your project starts, you realize you may be underwater with the current rates of labor then you're going to pull back on it and you're going to delay the start even further. I think as we look to next year, single-family this year is going to be up about 8% over where it was last year. Multifamily is going to be down slightly, from where it was last year. I think this coming year in 2017, we're going to see that 9% – 8%, 9% again gain in single-family, but I think single-family is going to be held next year. I think multifamily is going to be a lot weaker next year. I think, you're going to see a labor substitution going from multifamily to become more available to the single-family builders. And I think, the labor costs are going to start getting a lot more under control. We've seen a lot more labor cost inflation on the multifamily side than we've seen in the single-family side. But I think, labor is beginning to realize that they may be putting themselves into jeopardy and business may start slowing down unless their cost become a little bit more controlled, then I think we're going to start seeing that. So I think next year single-family is going to be pretty healthy again. That's good for us because we certainly have a lot more concentration on the single-family side. I think, multifamily even though it's important to us and we do a pretty fair amount of business in that area, that's going to be a lot tighter, but I think we have a lot more room to expand our presence in multifamily, so I think we can mitigate some of the slowdown that we're going to see in multifamily. So all-in-all, that's – I think, we all feel next year we'll continue working on – trying to address the labor supply problems as we did this year. And all in all, I think, next year is going to mirror a lot of what we've seen this year.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah, and I think that's a good point, and I mentioned earlier whether we grow at a mid-single-digit or high single-digit in single-family next year, it's going to be dependent on the availability of labor. And to Floyd's point, if we can see some of that labor move over from multifamily to single-family, then I think we got a shot at being on the high end of the range. If it stays tight like it's been in the last couple of quarters, then we may be at the low end of the range. So, we'll just have to wait and see how the labor issue resolves itself.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

But I think, we're also seeing a trend taking place in housing that certainly we have to be – pay a lot of attention to and it definitely affects a lot of our value-add products. That is – what's really the momentum part of housing now is that first-time homebuyer and a first-time move-up buyer, in essence the homes that are $300,000 and less, the higher-priced homes are much more stagnant in growth. And I think, a lot of that is attributable to certainly some of the oil related issues in those areas, and as well as around the country with the slowness of – that our economy is recovering. And so the lower-priced home is less square footage, but you don't have near the number of upgrades in the home. You don't have the number of windows that go into a larger home. You don't have as much interior millwork and finish out. And so it puts a lot more pressure on our operations and to grow our sales in the window and door category, as well as other molding trends and so forth. So we are addressing that and we continue to work to improve our penetration into the lower-priced home area. And we've – but next year, I think, our growth in those product areas probably are going to look more like it's done this year.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Trusses and component is going to be very strong for us

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Got you. Got you. Well, appreciate hearing your view. That all makes a lot of sense. And then I guess kind of transitioning a bit second question here is about your cost savings initiatives for procurement particularly, it looks like you've got a savings estimate for 2016 of $10 million to $12 million. I wanted to get an update on where you are in terms of negotiations with vendors if that's complete and if it was in line with expectations?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

We've pretty much finished. We've got one more larger category that's our millwork and trim category, but all the rest of the categories are finished and we're in a transition period when you transition to a new vendor, especially you bring in the change in product and so forth, it takes time because a lot of times we're committed for certain period of time with a line of products that may change, and so we don't get the immediate advantage of the price reduction that we've negotiated. It also involves when you get back-end rebates and so forth. But everything is progressing right as we had anticipated. I think, we're going to deliver the numbers that overall that we said. While we may come up a little bit short in one area, but then you make it up in another area, but right now certainly the procurement area looks really good to us.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Operator

And we'll next hear from Will Randow of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my questions.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Hey, Will.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Chad, your commentary on demand and kind of thinking about 2017 as well, I guess, there's two related questions there, number one, this spring was a little earlier than last and this summer was a little hotter than last, as you kind of think about next year, how should we be thinking about volume comparisons given that the first half is probably tougher comps and second half is probably easier comps? And then in terms of your outlook on lumber inflation, how are you guys thinking about the trade agreement given you probably more focused on it than I am?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

I think, you're right, if you want to talk kind of quarterly comps next year, from a volume standpoint. As I sit here today, Q1 would likely be the toughest, because, as you mentioned, we had a really mild winter and the construction activity really exceeded everyone's expectations in the first quarter of this year. And then I think Q2, Q3, and we'll see how Q4 plays out should all be kind of right there in the same boat together. I don't know, Floyd, you're probably closer to the trade agreement than I am, any commentary on that?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

On the lumber side?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

On the softwood agreement.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah. You know, it's still anticipated that there will be a trade agreement. I'm talking with some of our Canadian suppliers. They are I think looking for an agreement to be put into place sometime early to late spring. I think, in anticipation of that, I think what you're seeing now in the futures market is reflecting an increase in anticipated pricing certainly with the new trade agreement, they're anticipating that we will get a lift in pricing on the lumber products. Right now, lumber is softening. I think a lot of that had to do with the fact that a lot of inventory in the system that needs to get flushed out. People anticipated a lot stronger housing market, and especially multifamily market, than what occurred. And so some of that is just getting the inventories adjusted. But I think, next year, certainly first quarter next year, we're going to see a higher cost structure on our commodity products than what we have right now. And I think that's probably in terms 7% to 10%. And I think next year all-in that that's going to pretty much carry through the entire year. And I think probably on an overall average 10% to 15% on increasing commodity prices.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks for that. And as a follow-up, it's pretty apparent that the homecenters are trying to make a push into the small pro-contractor. Obviously, you guys are going to play with a bit bigger contractor so to speak. Have you seen any impact from that? Obviously, as volumes improve meaning more houses one guy does that plays towards your business model, but have you seen any sort of impact from the homecenters trying to move into your business model?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

No, I've not really seen much of a change in that area. We've only been really associated with the ProBuild operations now for about a year and a half, and they did a lot more of the small contractor business than we did, especially through the Midwest and Far West. From what our people are saying is that that really has not become anymore noticeable. Probably Menards is more heavily involved in the small contractor business in the markets in which we operate in, and more so than Home Depot and Lowe's, even though Home Depot and Lowe's are in those markets as well. In the Menards area, surprising they – in many of the areas they pulled their sales force from the field and so that they brought them all back into the store, and we really see that that might actually help us and give us an advantage in some of the areas where we compete where our people are in the field calling on those contractors. But other than that, really haven't seen any appreciable change.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks for that, and congrats on the progress.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Will.

Operator

Operator

We will next hear from Trey Grooms of Stephens, Inc. Please go ahead.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Good morning.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Good morning, Trey.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Chad, I guess this one's for you. With the synergy targets you've laid out for – you guys have been talking for a while, but you kind of reiterated, I guess, for next year the incremental synergies flowing through. How should we be thinking about the SG&A there? Is it still kind of that 65% variable? I know that's been the case in the past, is that how we should still kind of be thinking about that as we look into 2017??

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah, on the base business, I think it was still be in that 65% to 70% range and then you can layer on the cost savings on top of that

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Got it. So the cost savings would be in addition.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Right.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

And just to be clear that does exclude – that fixed portion excludes or doesn't include D&A I should say, right?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Right.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

And then just remember that that $30 million in incremental savings, some of it's going to be in COGS and some it's going to be in SG&A.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

And remind us of that split again, is it about kind of 60%, 30% somewhere there?

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

It's more like 75%.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

40%, I should say.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah, 75%-25%.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess, just a housekeeping, and maybe I've missed this when you're kind of going through some of your thoughts on next year, Chad, but CapEx range for next year?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

I think, it will still be in that 1.5%, like we've been running 1.5% of sales.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. That's it from me. Thanks a lot, and good luck, guys.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thanks, Trey.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Al Kaschalk of Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.

Al Kaschalk - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, guys.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Good morning.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Good morning.

Al Kaschalk - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

I have just a couple of – two follow-ups, really more clarifications. Floyd in your prepared remarks, or at least in the press release, you talked about competitive environment in certain regions increasing and I was hoping you could elaborate whether that'd be geographic or particular parts of the business?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

The competitive environment is still very, very competitive throughout our area. In some of the areas, especially in the oil impacted areas, Southwest, Balkan area, Alaska, the competitive environment has increased. Due to the shrinkage of the market and you still have the same people in the market competing for that business and the – it's gotten a lot tougher, so not only are you battling a shrinking housing market, but you are battling a really increased competitive pricing situation. The rest of the markets, I would say, the – it is still the competitiveness is not a lot improved or changed from a year ago. And it's still very competitive, but nothing like we're experiencing in the oil related areas. I will also say in the commercial multi-family arena, especially in the Northeast, down into the mid-Atlantic, the competitive pressures there, especially as it relates to the gypsum operations, have really gotten intense. And again, a lot of that is the shrinkage in the market. As you know, especially in the New York City, the Metro New York area, a tremendous, almost a 50% fall off in multi-family and that was a dominant part of the housing in that market, and so for whatever the available work everybody's really, really fighting for and you know, margins have gotten a lot thinner, but that's – I hope that gives you some coverage that you're looking for to the point.

Al Kaschalk - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Yes, no that's great. What spurned the question on my end is if we took a step back and looked at the pro forma numbers, and I know there's a lot of moving parts here, but if we see the revenue growth, yet the EBITDA dollar actual contribution was small, and so I'm just – I'm trying to grasp onto is are you having to move product by cutting price and hence the competition comment or if there's other dynamics going on where there are markets you now think maybe you need to reevaluate whether you need to be there at the size or scale that you were there previously. So I guess the border question there is, if there's anything you could add to why on the pro forma basis that EBITDA dollar growth wasn't as good as the revenue growth.

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Well, obviously a lot of that is the gross margin compression we are dealing with. Probably some of the toughest margin comps I've seen in the 17 years I've been here. Round numbers we lost 100 basis points of gross margin quarter-over-quarter, but still held our EBITDA margin flat, so that obviously speaks to the synergies we're getting out of the business. Now we didn't get some of the incremental this quarter that I thought we would get to be honest and part of that we explained that – earlier is the commission, incremental commission expense and some negative trends on group health, but even if you look on a year-to-date basis, our sales are up a little less than 5% and we've grown our EBITDA margin 110 basis points even with 30 basis points or so on a year-to-date basis of gross margin compression. So, yeah, it's been a rough quarter or two quarters from a comp standpoint, but if you look over the longer period, the year-to-date period, I think, we've done a really nice job of delivering on the cost savings and improving that EBITDA margin in what was a fairly tough sales and gross margin environment from a comp standpoint.

Al Kaschalk - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

I agree. Yeah, no, thank you for that color and good luck, guys. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have time for two more questions. We'll take the next question from Keith Hughes of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Please go ahead.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. You had talked about some numbers for the fourth quarter. There's always lots of charges in your numbers given the big merger. The modest increase in EBITDA over prior year, is that off a $76 million number in the prior year in the fourth quarter?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

That's right

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And you're talking, it sounds roughly about the same kind of dollar increase year-over-year that we saw here in the third. And this gets into the last question. Are you still struggling with in the lumber business, quoted activity that you're dealing with higher lumber prices than when the quotes came in?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Well, we're still dealing with some of that bleed over for sure, not quite as bad – not as bad but, yeah, you – you know, typically even if the builder issued a PO four months ago and for whatever reason he just now asks for the product to be shipped. We would still honor that old pricing. So, yeah, there's still a little bit of bleed over, but to Floyd's point not like it was.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

And that's why I'm a little confused that you're not talking about – given the you're still $12 million of incremental improvement in EBITDA from your synergies. I'm just a little surprised you're not talking about something that's well into the 80s versus whatever range it's in. Is there some other offset there?

M. Chad Crow - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Well, part of it is, the two less shipping days, one of those being a holiday. So we're not getting the revenue and we're still incurring the payroll expense. And again we're still going to have – this will probably be the most difficult gross margin comp we have on a quarter-over-quarter basis for Q4. So you know I feel really good about once we get into next year and get this tough comp environment behind us that, as I said earlier, we'll get back to a more normalized margin contribution, EBITDA margin contribution on incremental sales.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, and then moving – excuse me – looking at products within the quarter, there were two areas and you've sort of talked about this in the introduction, two areas where we saw pretty substantial negatives year-over-year; the gypsum, roofing, insulation and siding, metal and concrete products. At least some of those were up pretty good in the third quarter. I guess, are those in branches that specialize in those products or are those co-mingled with the other products you sell in the traditional ProBuild or Builders FirstSource branch?

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

There is some co-mingling, but a large portion of it is specialized branches, especially when you're talking the gypsum side of the business.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And is that something that – we've had several negative quarters, is that something that you plan to stay in long term? It seems like it's really pulling down the growth numbers for the company.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

We're always evaluating different parts of the business for whatever reason, right now we have no plans to exit any part of the business or there may be a location here or there that we're looking at that's underperforming, but we have no broad plans right now to close locations either, but to your point it is something we're continually evaluating.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then in siding, metal and concrete products, can you give us any feel there, which of those was the weakest?

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

So the metal is the gypsum metal...

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Right.

Jennifer Pasquino - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

...essentially, so you get gypsum and metal, but – and you are – concentration of gypsum business is largely in the Northeast quarter, which is the most impacted on a multi-family – we've been commercial there too basis, so that's a big drive for us across both. And then I want to remind guys that our roofing business is largely an aggressive R&R business for us, and in Q3 last year there was in that area more storms, so more roofing, so we had a little bit of lap, we had pretty good growth in Q3 on a pro forma basis last year in roofing. So I'm not sure that we feel any of those, declines are kind of systemic outside of the fact that in the markets they play in, if multi-family is down 9%, our gypsum business and especially in the Northeast was down even more – it could be more impacted.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

On the roofing business, very directly attributable when you look at the locations that had last in 2015 the benefit of some – a lot of hailstorm activity as well as tornadoes, and they haven't had it this year and that's where in those particular markets is where we've seen the shortfall in sales. The rest of the roofing operations are all performing very nicely.

Keith Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We have time for one more question. There are no further questions. So that does conclude the question portion of today's call. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Floyd Sherman for closing remarks.

Floyd F. Sherman - Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Okay. We appreciate everyone joining the call today, and we look forward to updating you on the progress of our business initiatives in the months ahead. If you have any follow-up questions, don't hesitate to give Chad or Jen a call. Thanks and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.