John Jimenez
Analyst · Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Eric. Before I share the power results, I’d be remiss to not acknowledge my recent retirement announcement. It’s been an absolute honor to serve BKV as CFO for the last 4 years. I’m incredibly proud of all that we’ve accomplished in my tenure, most notably, the company’s successful IPO process this last year. BKV is well positioned for the future. And I’m confident that the experienced leadership team, soon to include David as CFO, and its talented employees will take the company to even greater heights as they move forward. I look forward to continuing to support the team in an advisory capacity and I’m ready to enjoy my retirement with my family later this year. And now for an update on our power operations, as expected, during shoulder season, the fourth quarter was characterized by moderate power demand. Taking advantage of this shoulder season, we used the period to conduct scheduled major maintenance, which resulted in downtime for the plants. The average capacity factor for the Temple plants during the quarter was 38% and total generation was 1,200 gigawatt hours. For the full year, the average capacity factor was 57% and the total generation was 7,400 gigawatt hours. During 4Q, power prices averaged $36.90 per megawatt hour with average natural gas costs of $2.50 per MMBtu, resulting in an average spark spread of $19.37 per megawatt hour. For the full year, the average spark spread was $21.96 per megawatt hour. BKV’s implied proportionate share of the Power JV’s net loss during Q4 was about $17 million, including major maintenance expense and adjusted EBITDA was $0.5 million. For the full year, BKV’s implied share of the JV’s net income was $10 million and $34 million for adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, our Power JV is non-consolidated. Beginning with 1Q 2025 results, we expect to begin reflecting our portion of the Power JV’s results within BKV’s reported adjusted EBITDAX. As we look towards 2025, the Power JV has hedged approximately 700 megawatts of generation. Based on our pricing outlook and the current hedge position, the Power JV is targeting a gross 2025 adjusted EBITDA range of $130 million to $170 million. This guidance reflects the impact of additional renewable generation combined with lower forward pricing in the short-term. However, BKV still anticipates robust long-term demand growth, leading to increased periods of scarcity pricing in the ERCOT market. Now shifting to the rest of BKV’s financial performance, you’ve heard about BKV’s financial framework, which underpins our strategy. Our low decline inventory, our strong free cash flow margin and our disciplined CapEx enabled us to continue to invest in the base while supporting the future growth of the company, while this quarter is another proof point which showcases our ability to execute against our strategy. Accrued capital expenditures in the fourth quarter were $60 million, which included $43 million for development and $3 million for CCUS. This is notably below the low end of our fourth quarter guidance range of $65 million, evidencing not only our ability to respond to the market conditions, but also our ability to drive capital efficiency. As Eric emphasized earlier, our commitment to capital discipline serves as a clear example of BKV’s continued focus on managing capital expenditures in alignment with market conditions. Our full year 2024 accrued capital expenditures were approximately $118 million, including $82 million for development capital and $35 million for CCUS and other. This represents a 28% reduction in accrued capital expenditures year-over-year. For 2025, we’re anticipating an increase in upstream development. We believe that total capital expenditures will land between $320 million and $380 million with approximately $220 million going towards development and approximately $130 million going towards CCUS and other. Despite our elevated capital investment in 4Q, we generated positive adjusted free cash flow and continue to delever the business. As of year-end, our outstanding RBL balance was $165 million, representing a net leverage ratio of 0.65x. We also had cash and cash equivalents of approximately $15 million. Combined with the availability on our RBL, our total liquidity as of year-end was $436 million. During 2024, the company generated positive adjusted free cash flow of $92 million with an overall adjusted free cash flow margin of 15%, which included our investments in CCUS. This is a strong result considering our return to a more robust development period during the fourth quarter in anticipation of stronger overall pricing going into the new year. We are already seeing that stronger pricing trend come to fruition in the early weeks of 2025. We had a net loss in the fourth quarter of $57 million or negative $0.68 per diluted share. This loss was heavily driven by net derivative losses of $58 million. After adjusting net income for our unrealized derivative losses and other non-recurring items, we had an adjusted net income of approximately $1 million or a positive $0.01 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full year of 2024, after adjusting net income for unrealized losses and other non-recurring items, we had an adjusted net loss of $40 million. In regards to our hedging strategy, I’d like to reiterate that we hedge at least 50% of PDP production for 24 months. Based on our year-end hedge position for CAL25, we have natural gas hedged at an average price of $3.43 per MMBtu and NGLs are hedged at an average of $21.82 per BKV weighted barrel. For 2025 guidance and going forward, BKV is providing current quarter and full year guidance, which we will update as appropriate on a quarterly basis. I have covered a handful of our guidance ranges already. And you can refer to our complete 1Q ‘25 and full year 2025 guidance, including our per unit operating costs and average natural gas price differential in the press release that was posted this morning. With that, I’d like to turn it back over to Chris to wrap things up.