Operator
Operator
Welcome to The Priceline Group's Fourth Quarter 2015 Conference Call. The Priceline Group would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements which are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements. Expressions of future goals or expectations or similar expressions reflecting something other than historical facts are intended to identify forward-looking statements. For a list of factors that could cause the group's actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements please refer to the Safe Harbor statements at the end of the group's earnings press release as well as the group's most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless required by law, The Priceline Group undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A copy of the group's earnings press release together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement is available in the For Investors section of The Priceline Group's website www.pricelinegroup.com. And now I'd like to introduce The Priceline Group's speakers for this afternoon, Darren Huston and Daniel Finnegan. Go ahead gentlemen. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Welcome to The Priceline Group's fourth quarter conference call. Thank you for joining us before the market opens this morning in New York. I'm here in Amsterdam with Priceline Group's CFO Dan Finnegan. The group reported another solid quarter with consolidated gross bookings of approximately $12 billion up about 24% on a constant currency basis, 13% year-over-year in U.S. dollars. Our customers booked accommodation reservations for over 99 million room nights in the quarter, up 27% year-over-year. Gross profit was up 12% or about 23% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA was also up 11% to $790 million. And finally, our non-GAAP earnings per share was $12.63 surpassing FactSet consensus estimates of $11.81 per share and our guidance for the quarter. Now, I'd like to take a moment and reflect back on our full-year results. Our customers made reservations for over 432 million room nights on Priceline Group platforms in 2015, over twice as many as our next biggest competitor. Despite the law of large numbers, we organically grew this business at 25% down only 3 percentage points from 2014's growth rate and exited the year growing more quickly than we were growing when we entered it. The business was very profitable generating $3.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a 42.6% non-GAAP operating profit margin. I believe that the solid performance in 2015 and many consecutive years of strong growth and profitability have been made possible by competitive advantages we have developed through the skill and hard work of our people around the world. Our capabilities and scale in partner acquisition, customer experience and efficient demand generation plus our large installed base of accommodations and loyal travelers give The Priceline Group a competitive moat that is deep and wide. Let me expand on this point a bit, being a leader on online travel and building and experienced marketplace isn't achieved by simply electronically connecting demand with supply. It may be a surprise to some but about two-thirds of our employees are working in either the supply or customer service organizations. Only KAYAK, our one media asset does not have a similar model. Our employees work out of 239 support offices in 173 cities around the world working daily with partners and customers to deliver the absolute best booking experience wherever our customer comes from and wherever they're going. On the supply side, we added 200,000 properties during the year on Booking.com covering everything from igloos to shared estates while maintaining stable take rates and a fee-free model to the customer. Booking.com now has over 850,000 hotels, homes and other places to stay in over 220 countries and territories across the globe, up 34% from last year. The hard work of making this a daily reality is achieved by thousands of dedicated and energetic people around the world having these properties and then working with our partners on an ongoing basis to ensure that our customers have the most choices of places to stay at the best prices available. We offer by far the most directly bookable lodging choices to our customers, with over 22.6 million rooms potentially available on our websites, including 6.9 million rooms in vacation rentals and other non-hotel properties. With our worldwide team and market-leading profitability, we are expanding this low friction model more aggressively into the single-owner, single-room market as it continues to mature. We strongly believe that this fee-free experience-centric model, which makes booking homes and apartments as easy and trustworthy as booking a hotel, will be the winning model long term. On the customer experience side, the complexity of providing a world-class digital experience for customers becomes more daunting each year with various browsers and operating systems offered on desktop and mobile devices. On top of that, you have new platforms and capabilities being built every day, and for each of these, we need to make an intelligent decision about where and how to participate. The good news is the tools are becoming better and customers continue to want to live more of their lives digitally. We have over 2,500 talented developers and other technology professionals working across our brands to offer our customers the best online booking experience on our desktop and mobile websites and app optimized through hundreds of thousands of experiments. We believe Booking.com has the highest converting online accommodation reservation path in the world, achieved through a deeply ingrained culture of innovation, the result of experimentation at a transactional data scale and velocities that few companies can match. Our content is best in class with high-resolution photos, detailed property descriptions and 77 million plus verified and fresh reviews for properties in even the most far-flung destinations. We have thousands of customer service professionals stationed all over the world, helping our customers in 42 languages 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We think our approach adds up to a great experience for our customers, which helps us continue to grow the direct share of our business with outstanding everyday pricing and repeat traffic versus the alternative, which is to buy the business with coupons or discounting, transaction by transaction. Booking.com surpassed 100 million customer accounts during 2015 and had our one billionth guest stay at one of our partners, approximately 300 million of those in 2015 alone, another testament to our success at earning long-term loyalty. We invested $3 billion in marketing during 2015 to build our brands around the world and bring new customers to our websites at profitable ROIs. Our historical competitive strengths on the desktop have translated very well to mobile. Our talented teams use proprietary quantitative tools to manage bidding on hundreds of millions of multilingual keywords across desktop and mobile platforms, successfully balancing ROI discipline with strong growth. We continue to command a leading share of the demand channels we participate in, profitably converting shoppers into buyers and buyers into loyal long-term customers. Every year is an investment year at The Priceline Group. Well, every year is also an opportunity to deliver outstanding bottom line results. We evaluate every opportunity with a long-term lens, requiring that it deliver value for our brand franchises tomorrow beyond just delivering transactions today. 2016 will be no different as we invest in exciting new opportunities like OpenTable's international expansion or BookingSuite cloud software offers, or Booking.com for Business while maintaining superior operating margins that will allow us to win in the face of heated competition. And you can be confident that we're not standing still. The Priceline Group will continue to work hard to stay a step ahead of the competition with our unique combination of institutional knowhow, culture, systems and focused passion. We don't take any competitor lightly, and we compete ferociously every day, continuously seeking a higher executional gear in every facet of our business. Booking.com, of course, makes up the majority of our business. However, the group also has a portfolio of valuable and complementary brands, each of which makes money and has the aspiration to grow and build vertical mastery in their respective area of focus. We have new leadership at Priceline.com and OpenTable and both businesses are responding with a renewed energy and a strong commitment to profitable growth. Agoda and Rentalcars.com both continued to improve and differentiate their respective products and both look to drive more business direct and through improved mobile experiences. And finally, KAYAK is an outstanding business that is being smartly run and continues to contribute to the group beyond our initial expectations. I give these other brand teams a lot of independence, and this has engendered a real performance-driven culture. Through our portfolio of brands we aspire to achieve the group's mission to help people experience the world and become a global marketplace for experiences. I thank my colleagues around the world for delivering another great year. Their skill and dedication has helped build a great business with strong competitive advantages that have been responsible for our past success and will help us continue to succeed in the future. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for the detailed financial review. Dan? Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: Thanks, Darren. I'll discuss some of the highlights in operating results and cash flows for the quarter and then provide guidance for the first quarter of 2016. All growth rates referenced in my comments are compared to the prior year comparable period unless otherwise indicated. Q4 was a strong quarter for The Priceline Group with accelerating room night growth and a second consecutive quarter of solid operating margin performance. Growth was strong across all channels and geographic regions, which we believe indicates a generally healthy macro travel environment. Our global room night growth rate declined by more than 10 percentage points for a two- to three-week period after the terrorist attack in Paris compared to what it had been before the attack. Growth bounced back strongly in December and this momentum has carried over in Q1, as I will discuss further when I get to guidance. Room nights booked grew by 27% in the fourth quarter, accelerating compared to the 22% growth rate for Q3. Rental car days grew by 11% in Q4 compared to Q3 growth of 13%. Average daily rates for accommodations, or ADRs, for Q4 2015 were up on a constant currency basis by 1% for the consolidated group. Foreign exchange rates again presented a significant headwind to our growth rates expressed in U.S. dollars due to the strong dollar and our business mix, which skews heavily international. Our Q4 gross bookings grew by about 24% on a constant currency basis but by only about 13% expressed in U.S. dollars compared to prior year. International gross bookings grew by about 29% on a constant currency basis and by 16% expressed in U.S. dollars. Gross bookings for our U.S. business decreased by about 8%. We believe U.S. performance was impacted by TV advertising decreases in the second half of 2015 as the Priceline.com team transitioned to their new brand campaign, which recently launched in Q1. In addition, global airfares were down by about 15% over the last several months, according to KAYAK flight search data, which significantly impacts Priceline.com's gross bookings growth but has no impact on gross profit growth. Gross profit for the quarter for The Priceline Group was $1.9 billion and grew by about 23% on a constant currency basis, and by 12% in U.S. dollars compared to prior year. Our gross profit take rates remained stable, as they have been for quite some time now. We believe that our revenue margins have been and should continue to be sustainable due to our position as a relatively low cost distribution channel that drives significant demand to our partners. Our international operations generated gross profit of $1.6 billion, which grew by about 25% on a constant currency basis and by 12% in U.S. dollars compared to prior year. Gross profit for our U.S. operations amounted to $268 million, which represented 11% growth versus prior year. Advertising and other revenue, which is mainly comprised of KAYAK and OpenTable revenues, grew by 17% in Q4 compared to the prior year. Operating margins exceeded our guidance and were similar to Q4 last year. Non-GAAP operating income amounted to 41.3% of gross profit for Q4 compared to 41.4% in Q4 last year. Online ad ROI's were better than our forecast, but online advertising de-levered compared to the prior year, due to the acceleration in gross bookings late in the quarter, which will benefit revenue in Q1 and beyond when checkouts occur, as well as the impact of the terrorist attack on cancellations. Offline advertising came in slightly favorable to our forecast and is down year-over-year due to a shift in spend from offline to online advertising for KAYAK, reduced advertising at Priceline.com as I mentioned a moment ago and the impact of foreign exchange rates on Booking.com's offline advertising expense, which grew by 18% in euros. Non-advertising operating expenses were also favorable to our forecast and only generated 11 bps of margin pressure compared to prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 amounted to $790 million, which exceeded the top end of our guidance range of $760 million and grew by 11% versus prior year despite the significant negative foreign currency translation impact of the stronger U.S. dollar. Non-GAAP net income increased by 11% and non-GAAP EPS grew by 16%, including increased interest expense from our recent bond offerings and the beneficial impact of lower share count from stock repurchases. In terms of cash flow, we generated $881 million of cash from operations during fourth quarter 2015, which is about 17% above last year and is also impacted by unfavorable foreign exchange rate translation. For the full year, we generated operating cash flow of $3.1 billion and spent $174 million on CapEx, which means about 34% of our gross profit converted into free cash flow. We used our cash during the year to repurchase 2.5 million shares of our common stock for $3.1 billion. Darren just spoke about some of our operational competitive advantages, I believe that our market-leading profit margins, free cash flow, impeccable balance sheet and solid investment rate credit rating collectively constitute a competitive advantage that gives us significant financial flexibility to invest in our business to drive growth and positions us favorably versus our competitors. Our board recently gave us a new authorization to repurchase up to $3 billion of our common stock. We expect to execute this program consistent with the pattern we have established over the last couple years to return capital to shareholders at a pace that we think makes sense based on the price at which our stock is trading and potential other uses for such capital. Our cash and investments amounted to $10.6 billion at December 31, 2015, with about $800 million of that balance in the U.S. Now for Q1 guidance, our quarter is off to a strong start, as I mentioned a moment ago. Some of the strength in December, and thus far in Q1, is likely attributable to Chinese New Year, Carnival and Easter happening earlier this year. Leap year also helps our forecast slightly relative to last year by adding an extra day to the quarter. Although we worry about macro weakness evidenced in slowing economic growth, dropping oil prices and stock market volatility, the macro travel environment appears healthy to us. Lower oil prices have contributed to significantly lower airline ticket prices and leave consumers with more discretionary funds that are available for travel. Lastly, and most importantly, a combination of strong core execution and the benefits of a number of growth investments we've been making are helping to drive the group's success. And I sincerely thank my colleagues around the world for their efforts. Our growth continues to be strong across all channels and regions. Our guidance assumes that our growth rates will decelerate as we progress through the quarter, mainly due to the size of our business and consistent with long-term trends. We are pleased with the brand marketing we get through TripAdvisor's Instant Book ad placement, but given the relative size of our business and our experience so far, we don't expect that Instant Book will significantly impact our top line growth or ad efficiency. Our Q1 forecast assumes foreign exchange rates of $1.12 per euro and $1.44 per British pound for the remainder of the quarter, which will result in average exchange rates that would be weaker by about 2% for the euro and about 5% for the British pound as compared to the prior year. Many other currencies in which we transact are also significantly weaker versus the U.S. dollar than they were in Q1 last year. As a result, our gross bookings, gross profit, operating expenses, adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income will mathematically translate into fewer dollars than they would have at last year's exchange rates for Q1. As you can see in our guidance, the Q1 impact of currency fluctuations on our dollar reported figures, while still meaningful, is less severe than what we experienced during 2015. Barring further deterioration in exchange rates, year-over-year currency comps will become even less challenging after Q1. As I mentioned when we reported last quarter, we will no longer report U.S. gross booking business as a separate statistical metric. We believe that the usefulness of this metric has diminished due to the relative size of our Priceline.com business to our consolidated results, and because our other two U.S. brands, KAYAK and OpenTable, do not have gross travel bookings. The metric also excludes the U.S. inbound, outbound and domestic business for Booking.com. We will continue to report revenue and gross profit for our U.S. business as we have in the past to give insight into its performance. We're also adding guidance for consolidated room night growth to give visibility for this important metric. For Q1 guidance, we are forecasting booked room nights to grow by 20% to 27% and total gross bookings to grow by 18% to 25% on a constant currency basis and by 12% to 19% in U.S. dollars. Our Q1 forecast assumes that constant currency accommodation ADRs for consolidated group will be up by about 1% compared to the prior-year period. We expect Q1 revenue to grow year-over-year by approximately 9% to 16%. We expect gross profit to grow by 20% to 27% on a constant currency basis and by 14% to 21% in U.S. dollars. We expect about 140 bps of deleveraging non-GAAP operating margins compared to prior year expressed as non-GAAP operating income as a percentage of gross profit. The deleverage is mainly attributable to our assumptions for online ad efficiency. Our online advertising efficiency forecast, as usual, assumes deterioration from current levels and provides us with flexibility in a dynamic market to follow our consistent approach of advertising our brands at reasonable ROIs. Our adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $580 million and $620 million, which at the midpoint is an increase of 13% versus prior year. We estimate that the currency impact on EBITDA growth is similar to the impact that we are forecasting for gross profit. Our non-GAAP EPS forecast includes an estimated cash income tax rate of 16%, comprised of international income taxes and alternative minimum tax and state income taxes in the U.S. We are targeting non-GAAP fully diluted EPS of approximately $9 to $9.60 per share, which at the midpoint is an increase of 15% versus prior year. Our non-GAAP EPS guidance assumes a fully diluted share count of 50.5 million shares based upon yesterday's closing stock price and reflects the beneficial impact of the common stock repurchases we made in 2015. We forecast GAAP EPS between $6.90 and $7.50 per share for Q1. The difference between our GAAP and non-GAAP results is driven by non-GAAP adjustments that are detailed in our earnings release. Consistent with past practice, we have hedged contracts in place to substantially shield our first quarter EBITDA net earnings from any further fluctuation in the euro and British pound versus the dollar between now and the end of the quarter. The hedges do not offset the impact of translation on our gross bookings, revenue, gross profit or operating income. They also do not hedge us against fluctuations in other currencies and do not hedge our earnings beyond the first quarter. Our forecast does not assume any significant change in macroeconomic conditions in general or in the travel market in particular. We will now take your questions.