Earnings Labs

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 6, 2018

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Transcript

Kathy MacDonald

Management

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call for Brookdale Senior Living. Joining us today are Cindy Baier, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Swain, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I would like to point out that all statements today, which are not historical facts including our earnings guidance may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws. These statements are made as of today's date and we expressly disclaim any obligation to update these statements in the future. Actual results and performance may differ materially from forward-looking statements. Certain other factors that could cause actual results to differ are detailed in the earnings release we issued yesterday, as well as in the reports we filed with the SEC from time-to-time including the risk factors contained in our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. I direct you to Brookdale Senior Living's earnings release for the full Safe Harbor statement. Also please note that during this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For reconciliations of each non-GAAP measure from the most comparable GAAP measure, I direct you to our earnings release and supplemental information, which may be found at brookdale.com/investor and was furnished on our 8-K yesterday. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Cindy.

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you, Kathy. Good morning to all of our shareholders, analysts, and other participants, welcome to our third quarter 2018 earnings call. This morning, I will provide an update on our turnaround strategy and early thought about 2019 and Steve will provide our third quarter results and 2018 guidance. Before I speak about the three pillars of our strategy, I'd like to welcome Steve Swain, our new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Steve joins us from Dish Network ranked number 203 on the Fortune 500. He is a great fit for Brookdale because he's passionate about our mission and has a strong consumer focus. In fact, within his first 60 days, Steve has already served in communities within each of our three division. He wanted to walk in our associates’ shoes and learn the business from the community level up. Steve's finance expertise within large, complex, asset intensive businesses makes him a great addition to our leadership team. In addition to welcoming Steve, I want to welcome Denise Warren to our Board of Directors and to thank Jeff Leeds for his service to the board. Jeff retired after 13 years on our Board. He joined at the time of the IPO, served as Chairman for several years and saw our company grow from 380 communities to our current 900-plus footprint. I will personally miss his advice. Brookdale's top priority is the turnaround strategy to drive operational improvement. I will now share the progress we're making to turn around our business by winning locally. Let me remind you of our three strategic priorities. Drive attractive long term returns to our shareholders, by attracting and retaining the best associates, and earning resident and family trust by delivering high quality care and services, which creates Brookdale advocates and generates future resident…

Steven Swain

Management

Thanks for the introduction Cindy. I was first attracted to Brookdale because of its mission to enrich the lives of the seniors we serve. In my first couple months, I have been impressed with the passion I see in our associates. I believe we have the right strategy to win locally while leveraging our industry leading scale and expertise and I'm excited to be part of it. Moving to the quarter, I will start with a few highlights before I discuss the financial details and 2018 outlook. In the third quarter on a same community basis, we saw revenue improved year-over-year. Occupancy improved 20 basis points sequentially, which was slightly better than the industry as reported by NIC. Independent living occupancy improved every month of the quarter, resulting in a weighted average occupancy of nearly 90%. To provide context for the financial results, let me start with our real estate strategy, which is to improve long term cash flow by streamlining our at least portfolio and opportunistically monetizing select, owned real estate properties. In the third quarter 2018, we made good progress on both owned and leased transactions. Starting with owned assets. We signed an agreement to sell Brookdale Battery Park and another agreement to sell at 18 additional communities. These properties are reported as assets held for sale. We continue to market for sale seven more assets as part of our 2018 real estate program. We are pleased that the sale of Brookdale Battery Park has already closed. This was a quick close and shows the great collaboration between Ventas and Brookdale. For the owned asset strategy, the outlook has not changed since the beginning of the year. We still expect to generate proceeds in excess of $250 million net of associated debt in transaction costs of which we…

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you, Steve. We believe in the positive demographic trend and we are committed to our turnaround strategy in order to capitalize on the future silver wave and deliver long term value to our shareholders. In October at our second annual Celebrate Aging Film Festival, our resident provided important reminders about the critical role that Brookdale plays in the lives of our 93,000 residents and countless ancillary patients. The event was established to help change the perception of aging. Brookdale residents and associates were invited to make and submit a movie short. There was much excitement and many tears of joy among the nominations and all who attended the event. And it warmed our hearts to hear President John Robb in his acceptance speech, thanks Brookdale for creating as he put it and organization that allows us to participate for the rest of our lives. That is what our mission is all about, enriching the lives of those we serve. We are company providing health care and services, so that our country seniors possibly your mom or dad can live the best life that is possible for them. We are a company that believes in the balance of mission and margin. And I imagine if you are an investor that you also believe in both. Steve and I are happy to answer your questions now. Operator, please open up the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. [Operator Instructions] And we have our first question from the line of Joshua Raskin from Nephron Research. Your line is now open.

Mary Shang

Analyst · Joshua Raskin from Nephron Research. Your line is now open

Good morning. This is Mary Shang for Josh this morning. So just starting with the dispositions and lease terminations, could you just give us an idea of what inning are we on the asset sales, it's an ongoing process, so do you think you guys have identified the majority of assets to sell?

Cindy Baier

President

A baseball question Mary, you are testing me. I would say that we're probably in the [indiscernible] of our strategy. I feel great about the leases that we have restructured. And let me just recap that for you pretty quickly. So with Ventas, we announced a significant lease restructuring. We had the ability to prune $30 million of rent and for Ventas to sell those assets and Brookdale to get a lease credit. We've identified many of those assets in connection with Ventas, and I would expect those properties to be sold during 2019. With Welltower, we have extended our Sallie lease for an additional 8 years, that's a well performing lease, and we're very excited about the continued partnership with Welltower on that. As we previously announced in our Welltower transaction, we terminated 11 leases at the end of the quarter, and I feel like our Welltower portfolio is in great shape as well. With HCP, we completed many of the transactions that we announced almost a year ago, and HCP announced at the same time and that is almost behind us. With regard to our real estate sales, we've had a great transaction with the sale of Battery Park. We're very pleased with the price that we received. It will be a fantastic asset for Ventas, and we're pleased that we will continue to operate the property. This quarter, we announced our 18 additional portfolio optimization assets are under contract. You will see that they moved into assets held for sale, which gave us some additional current debt and also some additional assets held for sale. I will say that if you're looking at our investor presentation in the pro forma, you'll also notice that now we have moved those assets up to the pro forma, so you'll get a better model of what the business looks like going forward. We of course will continue to review our assets to see whether there are additional assets that need to be sold or monetized, but that is all dependent on our credit line restructuring as we've talked to in the last two calls. We're still on pace to get that restructuring done before the end of the year; and once it is done, we'll step back and re-evaluate whether there's more work to do, but I'd say, all in all inning seven.

Mary Shang

Analyst · Joshua Raskin from Nephron Research. Your line is now open

All right, great. Sounds like you're through the majority of large sales. And then just turning over to occupancy for 2019, I know you've previously expected occupancy growth in '19, but now the outlook is slightly down. So, I am just curious does the landscape appear incrementally worse today or is it just simply a function of where occupancy is today, just curious what the primary drivers of the change in outlook are?

Cindy Baier

President

So Mary, we as well as the industry have been studying the competitive market pretty intensely. I think virtually everyone sees a lot of new supply being delivered in 2019, and that that supply delivery will add growth in 2019. So when we look at that, we basically say we're going to be in a very difficult headwind. Now we do expect to make occupancy improvements throughout the year, but our outlook for 2019 reflects where we are in 2018. As we’ve talked about many times on this call, to build occupancy in a given year, when you’ve had a year of occupancy decline like we have this year, you have to regain every unit of occupancy you’ve lost before you can grow. So I don't want anyone to walk away with the fact that we are not confident on our turnaround plan, because we are. We believe that we will continue to improve. We have some refinements that we need to make in our sales and marketing to improve the conversion of our visits and to move in, but we think we know what those actions are, and we will adjust our strategy and execution accordingly.

Mary Shang

Analyst · Joshua Raskin from Nephron Research. Your line is now open

Alright, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open

Thank you. So I was hoping that you’d just help me out with the guidance, so you ran adjusted EBITDA this quarter and how you look at 125 million or 128 million. Your full year guidance implied that fourth quarter would be closer to 147 million. Can you bridge that gap for me, I know you've got 25 million of restructuring costs, is that the delta there or is there something else you’re expecting a big jump from 3Q to 4Q?

Cindy Baier

President

So if you look at our investor deck, the investor presentation, I think that will give you some view of kind of where we look at it. If I look at the sort of adjusted EBITDA for transactions after all of the transaction that are expected to be completed, it's about $109 million for the quarter. But of course, we are not having all the transactions on the dispositions done at the beginning of the quarter, so they'll be part of a quarter of those operations, and that's really the difference between where we are year-to-date and where our guidance is for the year. Now I'm really happy that we have tightened our guidance. We did not go outside of the initial guidance that we’ve provided, and I think that demonstrates that we've been very realistic about our turnaround strategy, and I'm pleased that we are within the original guidance that we gave.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open

Alright. No but that implies a pretty big jump in fourth quarter over 3Q, is that correct?

Cindy Baier

President

I think that it reflects the continued investments in labor costs, it also reflects the mark-to-market that we've seen throughout the year. Those are the biggest factors in addition to the continued portfolio optimization.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open

Alright. Can you give us an idea of what kind of synergies you are expecting on the cost side?

Cindy Baier

President

Sure. We've been very public about the fact that, as we shrink our portfolio, it's critical to right size our portfolio to match the scale of what we operate. And we said that we would reduce our G&A by about 3% to 4% of the revenues of the communities that we dispose of, that's still our plan. We haven't finalized our budget for 2019 yet, but suffice it to say we will make sure that we're very disciplined on our expenses as we recognize that every dollar of revenue that we get comes for our residents, and we want to make sure that we're investing it where appropriate.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open

Alright, so that bridge is - that G&A bridge right there say that 3% to 4% on 250 dispositions and it's close to almost 9 million or so. Is there another 9 million to 10 million or so of cost synergies that you are expecting somewhere?

Cindy Baier

President

So Chad, I think the 250 that you're referencing is a net proceeds as opposed to the revenue of the properties that were disposing off. Our G&A it's higher than 9 million.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Your line is now open

Okay. Alright, I'll leave somebody else ask some questions. Thanks.

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you for your questions Chad.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. Your next question comes from the line of Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Brian Tanquilut

Analyst · Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open

Yeah, good morning, guys. So just to follow-up on Chad's question here the clarification, I think if we add back transaction costs, I mean your Q4 guidance essentially implies flat to down by about 15 million, is that the right way of thinking about that?

Cindy Baier

President

So it will include the portfolio optimization, so it will be down as a result of that. And certainly the occupancy in the fourth quarter is normally flat to slightly down. So I don't think that you're saying anything that's inconsistent with our views.

Brian Tanquilut

Analyst · Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open

Okay, cool. So we're not expecting it, alright, cool. And then second, just to confirm the Welltower lease terminations in the press release that was part of your previous announcement right?

Cindy Baier

President

That's correct. It's nothing new, we've just completed the transaction that we announced earlier this quarter, actually last quarter.

Brian Tanquilut

Analyst · Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open

Okay. And then the other one you know obviously you've had some good success with lease exits and modifications, so when do you expect cash flows from the lease portfolio to start improving in a quarter-over-quarter basis, because it was kind of interesting to see that the losses from the lease portfolio actually increased this quarter, when you've done some lease exits and terminations. If you don't mind just giving some color on how you are thinking about that?

Cindy Baier

President

Yeah, it's a really good question. So as I think about our lease portfolio, I think there are two things that are required to turn around the portfolio that have hadn't happened yet. I think the restructuring with the landlord has happened and we basically have assets that we're comfortable going forward with. We have made significant investments in labor which we think are necessary to drive topline. And so what's really going to improve the topline is improved occupancy growth and rate. As we talked about for next year, we certainly have to grow occupancy in year and we are going to lean on rate to sort of improve the performance of the portfolio. We do however recognize that our capital expenditures that are required which are reflected. So I think one thing behind us, we would expect our lease portfolio to improve. And it's important to note that we are making our capital investments lightly. We have done a very comprehensive review of every single portfolio from a ground level up and we are balancing that against other capital allocation options we have. As a reminder, we have an existing share repurchase plan and we could use it opportunistically based on the market conditions. And we also have a variety of other capital allocation options. So we're being very thoughtful about how to improve that lease portfolio but also how to make sure that we're allocating capital appropriately.

Brian Tanquilut

Analyst · Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open

And then last question from me, Cindy. Is there, do you see any more opportunities at exit or modified underperforming lease over the next 12 month or is that mostly behind us at this point?

Cindy Baier

President

Well, we have the $30 million of assets that we can sell the Ventas lease, the $30 million represents our rent payment. We have $5 million of assets that represent our rent payment on the Welltower leases. There are going to be some things on them, but overall I think we're pretty happy with what we have to operate. I believe that all of our assets are assets where we have right to win. I think that we've got the portfolio appropriate size to manage effectively from Brookdale. And I think there's a big benefit to getting some stability in our portfolio, so that we are always focused on improving the performance of the assets that we have as opposed to some of the distractions caused by all the lease restructurings and asset sale.

Brian Tanquilut

Analyst · Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies. Your line is now open

Awesome, thank you.

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. [Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Joanna Gajuk

Analyst · Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. So first on the quarter and the guidance, so would you characterize the quarter and I guess the guidance tightening of it I guess at the midpoint is mostly because the occupancy also reflected labor cost were actually tracking maybe slightly better for the year, so is that the right characterization or it's mostly occupancy that's driven in the 2018 guidance?

Cindy Baier

President

So certainly if you look at our guidance for the year that we're tightening our guidance within our existing guidance range. But if we look at occupancy, well we're pleased with our sequential growth. It is at the lower end of our expectation. And so our guidance really is reflecting the fact that we're within the range but the lower end of the range. We're very happy with rate. At the beginning of the year, we did our in place rate increases those held very nicely and we have improved our mark-to-market. Now I do want to say that we're pretty pleased with our performance as it relates to NIC. While we're at the low end of our occupancy expectation, we are better than the industry and we have been for the last two quarters. So it feel like our operational turnaround plan is really starting to take hold. And then finally on community labor, we gave guidance of 5.5% to 6% and our outlook is that really slightly below that range. Now year-to-date, we are at 5.1% on our labor cost increases with a 5.5% increase in the quarter. There are a few other things net out in our guidance for instance, we certainly didn't expect two hurricanes again this year and we've got about $2 million of EBITDA impact reflected in our guidance. But the primary driver really is occupancy.

Joanna Gajuk

Analyst · Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open

And then on your comment on pricing which you saying that you know it's tracking and I guess it's slagging the mark-to-markets thereby shrinking. So what has been you in place resident increases and should we think about that number actually being able to play out next year?

Cindy Baier

President

Yeah, so we have about a 4% in place resident rate increase this year sort of averaged out across all of our portfolio. Now we think that rate will be higher than that for in place resident increases for 2018 or for 2019. And really if you think about our strategy, our strategy is to make sure that our communities are appropriately positioned, and we've got the best people in the industry in place, but we have to drive rate and we have to drive occupancy for that strategy to translate into higher facility operating income and better return for our shareholders.

Joanna Gajuk

Analyst · Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open

So you're saying that in place rate addressed than rents, you think you can push even more than 4% and then so am I reading it right about your comments around I guess you are not really thinking that the incentives are the way to go, so should we assume that you are not doing much of incentives currently?

Cindy Baier

President

So I think incentives over the long term are not the way to go. That's not to say that they aren't a helpful tool in a market that has a lot of new competition with a very competitive market, but they should be used selectively and appropriately. And we think that our local leadership is well equipped to decide when they have to reduce the rate, to get a new move. But I'll tell you that in the industry and Brookdale in particular has found that when we go out with an aggressive program, what happens is that you pull moving forward but you don't actually win the long term game of increasing RevPAR or revenue per available unit. So it's a tool and it's a tool that needs to be selectively. But we have been very successful in protecting the rate, while delivering above industry performance on occupancy gains and that's what we'll continue to do.

Joanna Gajuk

Analyst · Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open

Last one a quick one on the guidance piece because you talk about obviously EBITDA slightly lower and then adjusted free cash flow guidance lower but then the cash flow from JV, actually that outlook was increased, so what's driving that? That you.

Cindy Baier

President

So, we have been able to do a couple of things on our JV cash flows. First, you have to recognize that year-to-date, we've had strong performance there. Second, we were able to sell JV interest that was losing cash flow and it reflects the fact that we will expect good performance in this portfolio.

Joanna Gajuk

Analyst · Joanna Gajuk from Bank of America. Your line is now open

Great, thank you.

Cindy Baier

President

Thanks Joanna.

Operator

Operator

Thanks so much. And your next question comes from the line of Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open.

Cindy Baier

President

Hi Dana.

Dana Hambly

Analyst · Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open

Good morning. Just couple of questions on G&A. You mentioned the 3% to 4% reduction on dispose of revenue, what's the general timing on that Cindy, is that two or three ago?

Cindy Baier

President

I think we need to get it in place as soon as we possibly can. We've always said six months after the dispositions, but my objective is to do drive that. So you'll hear something about that in the next call or two.

Dana Hambly

Analyst · Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open

Okay. And then there's nothing in the pro forma break you gave, there is nothing in that to - you're not giving yourself any benefit in the pro forma for the G&A reduction, is that correct?

Cindy Baier

President

So we're not. We recognize that as we adjust our portfolio, we have to adjust G&A, but we try to keep the pro forma to just the facts, where it's like these are the communities that are going away, this is P&L for the communities that are going away.

Dana Hambly

Analyst · Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open

Okay. And a couple of clarifications on the 2019 outlook, the occupancy, understand the pricing, the labor expenses, is the labor inflation you expect at similar level so the 5.5% to 6% you experience this year will continue in the next year, is that correct?

Cindy Baier

President

I think it will be slightly below that. We're still working on our budget including looking at whether we may want to add some incremental capabilities to our team. But for the core business, I think it'll be slightly below that.

Dana Hambly

Analyst · Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open

Okay. And then just on the non-development CapEx, you mentioned you'd expect an incremental 75 million next year, is that on top of the 180 million you expect this year or should we subtract the 25 million in the hurricane related and generator expenses?

Cindy Baier

President

It's on top of the 180 million. And when we thought about how to present it, we thought most people would probably go to the actual cash flow number or the CapEx number, so that's the way we presented it. Certainly we have a lot of major building infrastructure work to do and that's our priority for next year to make sure that our communities are appropriately positioned for the markets at their end.

Dana Hambly

Analyst · Dana Hambly from Stephens. Your line is now open

Okay, thanks very much.

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Please ask your question.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Please ask your question

Alright, hey there. Just have a follow-up. Just thinking about the rate, you got 4% expectations in place and that's year-to-date and then next year occupancy be a little bit lower. So how does all that translate into your RevPAR expectations for next year?

Cindy Baier

President

You're a little ahead of it. And the 4% was the 2018 in place rent increases given that it's November, we certainly know that those rate increases held. But when we come back for our yearend call, we will certainly provide more detail about what our guidance is for the year. But let us finish our plans and assume if we do that we'll come back to you.

Chad Vanacore

Analyst · Chad Vanacore from Stifel. Please ask your question

Alright, I'll do that. Thanks.

Cindy Baier

President

Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you so much. And presenters, we don't have any further questions over the phone, you may continue.

Cindy Baier

President

So I just want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to talking to you again soon. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, presenters and thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.