Earnings Labs

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Q4 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 23, 2018

$37.45

-0.11%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.00%

1 Week

+1.72%

1 Month

+0.23%

vs S&P

+5.37%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the BJ’s Restaurants Incorporated Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Release and Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Greg Trojan, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Greg Trojan

Management

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the BJ’s Restaurants fiscal 2017 fourth quarter investor conference call and webcast. I’m Greg Trojan, BJ’s Chief Executive Officer. And joining me on the call today is Greg Levin, our Chief Financial Officer. We also have Greg Lynds, our Chief Development Officer; and Kevin Mayer, our Chief Marketing Officer on hand for the Q&A. After the market closed today, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017, which ended Tuesday, January 2. You can view the full text of our earnings release on our website at www.bjsrestaurants.com. Our agenda today will start with Rana Schirmer, our Director of SEC Reporting, providing our standard cautionary disclosure with respect to forward-looking statements. I will then provide an update on our business and current initiatives, and then Greg Levin will provide a recap of the quarter and some commentary regarding fiscal 2018. After that, we’ll open it up to questions. So Rana, please go ahead.

Rana Schirmer

Management

Thanks, Greg. Our comments on the conference call today will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today’s date, February 22, 2018. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or to make any other forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required to do so by the securities laws. Investors are referred to the full discussion of risks and uncertainties associated with the forward-looking statements contained in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Greg Trojan

Management

Thanks, Rana. I’m encouraged with our sales and traffic momentum, which start – which first started to show improvement in September and then carried over into October and through Q4. With positive fourth quarter traffic of 0.7% and comparable sales of 1.6%, we outperformed industry traffic and sales trends for the quarter and 2017 full-year once again. The outperformance together with the success of our 10 new restaurants led to another year of BJ’s gaining meaningful share in our category. These results highlight our position as one of the leading brands in the casual dining arena and they point to the growing success of our sales building initiatives that our teams work so hard to implement over the course of the last year. At BJ’s, we have a mantra, where we challenge ourselves to be sales builders first and foremost, because we know that ultimately delivering unique great guest experiences will drive sales and solid margins. This past year, we undertook a series of challenging initiatives to continue our quest to be the best casual dining concept ever. Our team members embraced this challenge and they learned and mastered new cooking methods, became proficient with taking orders on hand held devices and reorganized their processes used to bring efficiencies to our growing off-premise revenue stream. As our team members worked through these learning curves and our guests experienced BJ’s differentiated higher quality dining experience, our sales strengthened and I’m pleased to report that this momentum has carried over into fiscal 2018 to date. Looking at Q4, our positive comparable sales of 1.6% surpassed the NAFTrack and Black Box indices by 19 and 130 basis points, respectively. More importantly, our positive 0.7% traffic for the quarter significantly outdistanced the same industry metric as measured by NAFTrack and Black Box by 270…

Greg Levin

Management

All right. Thanks, Greg. First, as we noted in today’s press release because of the new tax law, we revalued our deferred taxes based on the new federal tax rate. And this resulted in a $15.7 million reduction of our net deferred tax liability. The reduction of our deferred taxes runs through our current year provision, resulting in tax benefits for the fourth quarter of $13.3 million, which led to a GAAP net income and GAAP diluted net income per share of $23.5 million and $1.2, respectively. Excluding the change in the value of deferred tax balances, we estimate that our tax rate for the 2017 fourth quarter would have been 23.5%, thus resulting in a non-GAAP pro forma net income and non-GAAP pro forma net income per diluted share of $8.7 million and $0.37, respectively. Also, as you know, in today’s release, last year’s fourth quarter included one additional operating week. This additional week contributed $21.3 million in sales, which based on our estimates amounted to approximately $0.10 to $0.11 in net income per diluted share in the year ago quarter. Our fixed and semi-fixed occupancy operating costs, as well as depreciation expense benefited most from this extra sales week and its impact on our margins last year. Looking at our revenues for the fourth quarter of 2017, there were approximately $261.1 million compared to $265.6 million in last year’s fourth quarter. Excluding the extra week of sales of $21.3 million from last year, our revenues on a comparable 13-week quarter grew approximately 6.9%, as a result of an approximate 5.5% increase in operating weeks due to our new restaurants and an increase in our weekly sales average of approximately 1.2%. Comparable restaurant sales and traffic for the quarter increased 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively. As we mentioned on our…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll go first to Mathew Difrisco with Guggenheim Securities.

Mathew Difrisco

Analyst

Thank you, Greg and Greg, I always appreciate your details, so I apologize for the first bookkeeping question. I didn’t keep up with you there. Did you say what the CapEx would be in 2018? I’m just trying to calculate sort of how that – how the free cash flow was going to grow in the environment with the lower tax rate now?

Greg Levin

Management

Right. We said the CapEx for any tenant improvement allowance or anything will be somewhere in the neighborhood of about $50 million to $55 million.

Mathew Difrisco

Analyst

Okay. And did you, I mean, I guess, is this the new state of growth four to six openings, or should we start – are you embedded in that, or are there some openings potentially to start in the first-half of 2019 a little bit faster, perhaps maybe closer to 10, or are you happy with the pace right now of around six or lower?

Greg Trojan

Management

Matt, this is Greg Trojan. The – it’s our intention to return in the medium to longer and closer to our double-digit restaurant week growth. So, the short answer to your question is, we think we’re satisfied with it in turn. So we think it’s the right place to be given the environment today. But we’re anxious to be opening more restaurants than we think the – it’s the right timing and place to be doing that. Specifically, next year, we don’t make that decision until certainly the back-half towards the end of this year. But we are – our real estate team is out there and still negotiating and looking at new properties in a way with an eye towards of that expanding. And so it’s easy to scale back from the current days than ramp-up. So we are behaving in a way that gives us the option to increase that rate next year and beyond, whether we do that or not, it’s going to depend on how the year unfolds.

Mathew Difrisco

Analyst

Excellent. Okay. And then just last question. With respect to delivery, is this – how does that flow through? If I were to look at that sort of as the incremental, let’s say, it was all incremental and you moved a little over 5% up to 7% now of delivery. How does that compare to, I guess, the historic sort of 40% or so flow through when you get a 1% comp in the store.? What type of comp flow through are you seeing in that relative to the comp in the store?

Greg Levin

Management

Yes. It’s always hard to dissect every individual piece there. I would tend to tell you that we’re going to see costs in the operating occupancy line. That’s where you pay some of that third-party commission that comes through in that side of it. Generally speaking, Matt, we’ve always talked about in our business trying to get somewhere in the neighborhood of about 50% flow through, about kind of a fixed point, so to speak. Generally, you would think that third-party delivery is going to be a little bit lower than that 50%, not that much lower though, because we only put so many people at your take-out desk and other areas. So you get a little bit of limit there that can offset to some degree by the commission that you’re paying from the third-party delivery companies.

Mathew Difrisco

Analyst

Okay, excellent. Thank you for the detail.

Greg Levin

Management

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer.

Brian John Bittner

Analyst

Thank you. A couple of questions. Greg, thanks for all the margin details, particularly on the labor and the other offline. And as you said, these lines are pretty sensitive to comps. So can you tell us what your comp outlook is when you gave us those margin percentage details for 2018?

Greg Levin

Management

Yes, Brian, it’s a great question. And as you know, we don’t give specifics on comp sales. But we tend to obviously give you where we see comp sales currently. I’d like to think of that. The initiatives and things that we put in place will allow us to stay on the positive side in regards to those comp sales.

Brian John Bittner

Analyst

Okay. And you are marketing a much better off-premise growth recently, particularly this quarter we saw really good off-premise growth. Is delivery like the main thing that’s kind of unlocking this, or are you guys doing something to drive more people to your stores for take-out?

Greg Levin

Management

Well, it’s a combination of things. One is, as Greg Trojan mentioned, I’ll probably comment here shortly. We’ve added a third-party delivery to numerous restaurants. I think we said right around 149. And we didn’t have that beginning – at the beginning of this year and we started it really in the August timeframe. So that generally is going to be your more incremental growth there, because it’s a new channel within our business, and that’s what’s doing that. That being said, we’ve been able to partner up with the third-party delivery companies we use. As well as the fact that in many of our own cases at BJ’s and many of our restaurants, we developed our own online platform that comes right to us. So we keep all the data and all the information. And that will allows us to e-mail those guest and maybe given special offers even though it’s being delivered by a third-party delivery company. So it’s been a combination of those two things. But I would tend to say that the incremental growth in off-premise has been primarily all third-party delivery or all delivery.

Brian John Bittner

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Greg Levin

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to John Glass with Morgan Stanley.

Christopher Carril

Analyst

Hi, this is Chris on for John. So I wanted to ask about the quarter to date. If there was anything else that you would call out there I know you mentioned lapping of the rains in California that being, I think that was a 50 bps impact last year, but didn’t seem like the industry had gotten better, at least, in January. So, was there any additional color you can provide to us? Was – is there more delivery momentum building there? That would be helpful.

Greg Trojan

Management

Yes, Chris, one comment that I’ve made generally is in line with that is, we’re seeing that healthy growth, if you will, continue. It has been very balanced geographically. So – but we know the rains in, particularly in California and the West Coast were pretty much specific to those geographies a year ago. But we’re seeing healthy both outperformance and general trends throughout the country in that regard. So that’s a good thing, I’d say. And I wish we could point to in some ways for explanation purposes one or two things. It’s been fairly balanced. Obviously, off-premise is helping, but it’s not more of the story into this year than it was in – what we saw trending in Q4 there. So the – I’d say, additional element and it’s too early to really truly diagnose. But we did roll out nationally our – the change to our loyalty program. And the early indicators are certainly positive there, but literally what are we three weeks into the roll out of that program. But – so we think that’s benefiting, but to what extent, we have to give it both more time and more data to analyze in that respect. But fundamentally, we think it’s a combination of these initiatives that we worked hard on last year.

Christopher Carril

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Will Slabaugh with Stephens.

Will Slabaugh

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, guys. Wanted to ask about trends throughout the quarter and then into the quarter to date period that you mentioned, Greg, earlier. So even with the initiatives taking hold that you mentioned, the quarter to date trends are pretty impressive. So I’m curious if behind the scenes this makes sense to you given maybe the improvement you saw throughout the quarter, or if you actually saw margin bump in sales as the year began for some reason or the other? And is there anything you think to say about the sales either in 4Q. or 1Q quarter to date geographically, it sounds like that was somewhat spread out fairly evenly?

Greg Trojan

Management

Well, yes, I mean, the trends that we indicated is certainly higher than what we saw in Q4 in total and even that we are trending later in the quarter. Although we sequentially saw good progress on – in the business really as we said starting from – we really started to see a difference in September, October, November and December were all strong. So, relative to the trends before that. I – so – so I – they continue to get and accelerate in that regard. It’s just – we do caution everyone that it’s choppy this time of year, not just with the rains of a year ago, but also just generally weather has a big impact this time of year, as you know So, I think the – as we indicated, we – maybe we’re conservative a year ago at 50 basis points of lapping the specific rain impact, but weather may be helping us a little bit more there. But look, even if you make that number bigger than that, we’re pleased on a sequential training basis to see how the business is going on there.

Will Slabaugh

Analyst

Yes, great to hear. And a question on pricing, if I could, as well. Did you give the pricing in the quarter and apologies if I missed that and what your plans are for 2018? And then also just given, obviously, California taking another dollar of this year. Curious if you expect pricing to change a lot market-to-market?

Greg Levin

Management

Yes. Well, this is Greg Levin. A couple of things here. One is, we have over the years, I think, I want to say, we’re up to like 10 or 11 pricing tiers. So something like California and the minimum wage going up to $11 and still going up how years will have different pricing than other areas. What we come to notice over the last, really, I would say, five months as our Brewhouse Specials and slow roast have taken hold with our guests. It’s really about where that average check is going. And as Greg Trojan mentioned here in the fourth quarter, despite some of the narrative of, I would say, 2.5% to 3% pricing in the fourth quarter, we all saw that average check go up about 1%. And I think what we’re thinking, we’re looking at this year and trying to understand our business. It’s not so much the absolute pricing, but where we’re trying to get that average check to go or to grow for a lack of better term. I think we’re looking at our business right now and trying to have an average check somewhere in the neighborhood probably in the 2% to 2.5% range going into 2018. So while our absolute pricing is in there, we’re still seeing the huge shift to Brewhouse Specials, and we’re seeing a huge shift to slow roast. And that’s played more into our business and the way I tend to think about and think about like the comp sales that we’re seeing right now. It’s about trying to get an average check 2.5% range there and trying to get that traffic to be flattish or positive.

Greg Trojan

Management

So Will, what we I’d add to that is, in terms of mix, is you know given what we’re seeing as somewhat of a stronger stronger environment and the fact that, we’re coming into a year of lapping some of these investments in check, but also have enabled us to pull back on the level of discounting somewhat and that’s having a benefit of – a beneficial effect on check as well. And that’s a meaningful opportunity for us if we’re able to maintain our traffic moment and dial back on – a little bit on the frequency, but also on the debt, the discounting is gong to help our check as well.

Will Slabaugh

Analyst

Yes, that’s helpful. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Nicole Miller with Piper Jaffray.

Nicole Miller-Regan

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Two quick questions please. The first is, there’s a lot of great conversation around value, which can mean many things. But. I’m wondering how does pizza specifically fit into the value equation? What is that as a percentage of sale? How do margins compare? And is that something you would put more emphasis behind?

Greg Trojan

Management

A couple of things here, Nicole. One is, we think value is extremely important just on your general topic there and that was a whole set up of daily Brewhouse Specials. And daily Brewhouse Specials have done really, really well for us. And one of those key things of our daily Brewhouse Specials is our 50% Half Large Pizza Monday. And as a result, we generate some of our best guests traffic on that Monday with people taking that pizza offer for us. We also look at pizza as a way to drive the off-premise business and put the emphasis on that, because it travels well, we can do bundle packages around it and drive that part of our business. So we’re excited about pizza. We keep it, obviously, on top of mind and continue to work it, even though we talk about all these other menu products. One of the things that I think sometimes people forget that no BJ’s for a long time is they think about sales somewhat as just a pizza and beer joint. And whenever we do consumer research, consumer feedback, it always comes to us as one of the main reasons. So the number one reasons they come to BJ’s is the variety of menu items we have out there. So we’re always going to emphasize pizza, so it’s important to us. But at the same time, we can’t let it be the sole thing that that we talk about only. But it is part of our value equation and it continues to be kind of a low double-digit as a percent of sales for us. And it’s always going to probably be that way, where like California, it’s stronger, because that’s where we started versus the other areas, but it’s important part of us, it’s very profitable, as you know, it also drives a great value equation for us that we use for both our daily Brewhouse Specials and other incentives.

Nicole Miller-Regan

Analyst

Great. Thank you. And then the other question I want to ask about, there’s a lot of discussion around labor inflation, which we know is the pressure for the industry. And I think maybe at the beginning of the prepared commentary something also around unit supply. Could you just give us some context on how you view growth within casual dining or the industry overall? And what is it going to take? Will it take to get back to slowdown? And would that be one indicator you’re looking at for then also for you to step up growth? Thanks.

Greg Trojan

Management

What I was referencing there is, it would be in the latest unit count numbers and free service and MTD number that that we saw showed that unit count was down, I believe 2% overall and casual dining was in the restaurant space and casual dining was down about the same. And it’s just – we have a sense of that and the fact that our turnover is not just only stabilized, but has improved right. The combination of – we just think there’s a bit less of certainly a slowdown in the acceleration of labor rates. We’re still going to see labor rate inflation, obviously, not just because of the minimum wage, but because of continued high levels of employment. So, I don’t mean to be enthusiastic about it. But I do think, it’s better, I do think the prospects for this year in terms of overall acceleration will be a little bit better. So I think, those are the dynamics contributing to that. And if I heard the second part of your question, even though that we’re starting to see some contraction out there, what it would take and we don’t have a specific formula quantitative goal in terms of that criteria. But if we continue to see an improvement in the fundamental top line environment and particularly traffic and we think – the other part of the equation is, this labor shortage is impacting the world of construction and trades in a very significant way, where we’ve been able – our team has done a great job of both avoiding that through both deals structure and other things that we do around construction. But the fundamental inflation rates on build out costs and availability of labor and some of these traders is another consideration. So – but I’d say, the most important one is, if we see continued momentum on – from a traffic and top line perspective. And to me, it’s around deploying our own internal assets in human resources more outwardly as a balance. And we are today where we’re certainly inwardly focused on making sure as we always will be, but we’re operating our restaurants to the best to our ability. Then that that will be a sign to me that it’s a – it will start increasing the pace of a development. And as I said earlier to Matt, we’re anxious to do that. I mean, we’re – I mean, we had a very solid year last year in our development strategy. And so we’re anxious to be building more restaurants.

Nicole Miller-Regan

Analyst

Thank you.

Greg Trojan

Management

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Mary McNellis with Baird.

Mary McNellis

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Just you touched a little bit on starting to pull back on the discounting in 2018, are you seeing the traffic move in the direction that you wanted to? And so I was curious whether you’ve already started to temper that discounting a little bit in early Q1, so that would be reflected in that 3% you’re seeing quarter to date? And then just also any perspective you’d be willing to provide on what the value strategy is going to look like in 2018, for instance, if you’re planning to just temper the advertising of the Brewhouse Special there just any color on the strategy, that would be helpful?

Greg Trojan

Management

Yes. Actually, it’s a good question, Mary. Actually, we started tempering our discounting with the thought of that opportunity even in Q4 more so on the back part of the quarter. But we saw some help to our check. Like I said in the back-half of the quarter and we’ve continued to be – to follow along those lines in the early part of this year. So yes, that is part of what’s helping us from a check growth perspective early on in the year. And sorry, I think, you were asking about Brewhouse Specials.

Greg Levin

Management

I think, Mary, the idea even going into 2017 was to drive a little bit more of a every day value versus trying to drive purely from a discounting standpoint. So as we started 2017, the idea of the Brewhouse Specials was to talk about that as the main strategy there versus trying to get somebody and from a pure discount standpoint. And Brewhouse Specials, it didn’t really get rolled out until late February, March and starting to get some marketing around them. So a little bit to your point on Q1, we’ve got less discounting in there. And ultimately, our goal is to continue to drive people in, in regards to items that are more of an every day value strategy from that standpoint versus trying to drive people in purely on some type of discounted promotion. That being said, we know there’s a certain amount of people that love to collect coupons and coupon clip and come in specifically for them. So we will always address some of that. But generally speaking, we want to bring them in for the things that we have on our menu on every day perspective.

Mary McNellis

Analyst

That makes sense. Thank you. And then just one quick follow-up on that. So the check is a little bit higher in the quarter-to-date period than it was in Q4. But is it still right to think that your traffic in the quarter-to-date period is trending above that 70 basis points you reported for Q4?

Greg Levin

Management

Our traffic is a little bit below that from that standpoint. And when we look at the – when we look at Q4, we talked about this before. Q4 we started off the year or started off the year, started off the quarter with $3 Pizookie October month. So every one of our Pizookie desserts are sold for $3 in the month of October and that has ended up having a lower average check. And then we went into November, which had Veterans Day, so discounting on Veterans Day. As we move into December, the slow roast on the weekend and more of a celebratory time, we saw – we started to see that average check grow a little bit. So as we come into Q1 of this year not having really kind of a $3 Pizookie month that we’re going over and some other things, we’re seeing a higher average check on a relative basis to maybe where we were in Q4.

Mary McNellis

Analyst

That makes sense. Thanks very much.

Greg Trojan

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Chris O’Cull with Stifel. Christopher O’Cull: Thanks. Greg, the labor guidance that was pretty encouraging, I guess, my question is have comps were to be flat though for the year, would you – what would you expect labor costs to look like? And what I’m trying to get is, what’s the benefit you’re expecting from sales leverage?

Greg Levin

Management

So I don’t know that one, Chris, they probably would be at 36%, how’s that? I mean, it’s – I think, we’ve got opportunity to go after labor. I don’t know if go after it is the right word. We’ve got opportunity to schedule better in labor in the sense that we’re growing some of our business from off-premise. We need to make sure how that plays into our business and make sure that in the dining room adjust accordingly from that side of things. But if comp sales were to flat – go to flat and the fact that you got the minimum wage and you still got labor pressures out there, I think it becomes a challenge to hold it closer to the 36% number that we are currently targeting right now. And frankly, the 36% number that we’re going after right now is not going to be easy either. We’ve got a lot of the initiative things that we’ve got to put in place to get that to work. And when people come to BJ’s as much as we’re very excited and everybody talks about off-premise, 93% of our business today and maybe at the end of next year at 90%, but it’s still the lion’s share of our business is going to be done within the four walls of our restaurant. And that’s going to happen and that’s going to continue to happen. We’ve got to make sure, we’re taking care of our guests every single day. So labor is critical to us. We want to make sure it’s deployed correctly and we’re taking care of our guests and that we’re not in the business of cutting labor, but we’re in the business of optimizing labor. Christopher O’Cull: Okay, fair enough. And then, Greg, you mentioned two days of the week that we’re benefiting from the Brewhouse Specials. Is there any opportunity to change the offers on the other days to make them more compelling?

Greg Trojan

Management

Yes, I mean that’s something we’re – we’ve been looking at, Chris, to augment there. They’re actually not, I mean, we think of those as being two of the better. But the other days of Wednesdays $10 burger and done well and our Rib Specials on Thursday, I mean, we drive great rib incidents not the level of traffic incrementality as the other days, but we see decent check on that day. So, they’re not working. They’re just not working to the extent of the two days that kind of more quickly to mind the Monday and Tuesday offer. So we’re looking at some and then may be regional differences. We’re still pondering some of those alternatives and begin – will begin testing some of those changes. Christopher O’Cull: Okay. And then, Greg, did you say what G&A guidance was for the first quarter?

Greg Levin

Management

I didn’t. I mean, I think I said overall, it’s around $61 million or so. You can probably, for lack of a better term divide that by four, it’s probably a little bit less in the first quarter. Christopher O’Cull: Okay. And then did you…

Greg Levin

Management

And as I said, I’m sorry, I’m just looking here. Yes, $61 million is what I said for the full-year, right? Christopher O’Cull: Right

Greg Levin

Management

Yes. Christopher O’Cull: And did you say the weather impact on comps for the seven – the 50 basis point impact from the weather last year, did you say that was for the seven-week period, or for the entire quarter?

Greg Levin

Management

No, that was for the seven-week period at the time. Christopher O’Cull: Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Greg Levin

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. Thanks. This is actually Jeff [indiscernible] for Jeff Bernstein. You hate to hit this part again, but you talked about how California, Florida and Texas were all positive. Obviously, BJ’s has outsize exposure to those three states – in all three of the states outperformed the rest of the country, when it comes to casual dining in the fourth quarter. So I was just wondering if you can give us an update on how some of your newer markets are doing and some of your unit economics are doing relative to the core? And then I have one follow-up. Thanks.

Greg Trojan

Management

Actually the – from a traffic and sales perspective into Q1, that’s a true statement for all of our markets.

Greg Levin

Management

I mean, they all fit well in regard to positive comp sales and traffic versus the industry.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. And then with all the macro factors you talked about when – with regards to the slowing unit growth, is 4.25 still the correct potential to think about as BJ’s full-time potential for the U.S., or is it a lower number now?

Greg Levin

Management

No, we feel very good about 4.25. And I think, as we talked about the 4 to 6 this year, we want to be eighteen-plus month out in regards to developing our real estate. We’ve got a really deep pipeline, as Greg Trojan mentioned. Our goal is to increase it for next year, that’s what we’d like to do. But as he mentioned, we’re going to continue to look at the bigger picture and see where everything goes from a trend standpoint. But we feel 4.25 is a great number. We’re really happy of with a lot of our newer restaurants have opened really well. We’d like to see that continued slowdown. I think in casual dining overall, because if you look at all the data out there, people are not necessarily eating out more. The – they’re kind of eating out the same. They’re not going away. But it’s just the fact that there’s a lot of competition and a lot of variety for that. And as a result, we need to see a little bit of a slowdown in some of that as we can – continue to take market share in the industry space.

Greg Trojan

Management

I think just to summarize, it’s been a longtime since we’ve done an official analytic view of the 4.25. But my guess if we did that today with the same modeling technique, we’d end up with a bigger number, not a smaller one. We have a lot more history in our concept building in less populated, less dense trade areas than we did when that study was done. And as a result, it would model that we’d be successful in more trade areas resulting in anything more potential, not less. So, that’s not anything we have to worry about sitting here at 1.97. But we are as optimistic about the pipeline of unit growth as we’ve ever been in that regard.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Greg Trojan

Management

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our last question from Nick Setyan with Wedbush Securities.

Nick Setyan

Analyst

Thank you. Congrats on the amazing trend. I really wanted to just dive in on the G&A guidance for next year, Greg. $61 million implies a pretty big jump given even – I guess maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on the stock comp portion of it? To what extent there’s some variable that embedded in your guidance may prove conservative?

Greg Levin

Management

I think, the best way to describe it is the entire difference right now as we go into this year is, we’re expecting to get incentive compensation. That’s the difference. So when you pull that out, you just take what total G&A was for 2017, the difference between 2017 and 2018 is primarily incentive compensation. We’re holding G&A in what I would consider to be the controllable part of G&A flat, it’s actually is down a little bit to be perfectly honest [indiscernible] But G&A on a controllable, take incentive compensation out, year-over over year is actually flat, so that’s just a difference there. And that’s kind of how we built the budget. We go through the year just like we did last year depending on our results are going, that number could go down. I doubt, it would go up much, because we’ve already got the incentive compensation built in there.

Nick Setyan

Analyst

Got it. And then just on the menu price, is that safe assumption, mid-2s going forward in 2018? Is that what it was in Q4 2.5?

Greg Levin

Management

Again, we – our mix has shifted so much over the last quarter, or I should say as these initiatives have taken off, that overall, if I’m thinking about this business, I’m trying to think about the business in a sense of a 2.5% increase in average check.

Nick Setyan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Greg Levin

Management

You’re welcome.

Greg Trojan

Management

You’re welcome. That’s it for today’s call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.