Earnings Labs

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 20, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to BJ's Wholesale Club, Third Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Christine and I will be your lead operator today. After the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Faten Freiha, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Faten Freiha

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. We appreciate you joining BJ's Wholesale Club's third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Chris Baldwin, Chairman and CEO; Bob Eddy, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer; and Bill Werner, Senior Vice President, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations are on the call. Chris and Bob will provide you with an overview of our results, followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, please remember that during this call, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Laws. These statements are based on our current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations described on this call and in today's press release. Please see the risk factors section of our prospectus filed with the SEC on September 27, 2018, for a description of those risks and uncertainties. Finally, please note that on today's call we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe will provide useful information for investors. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release and the information posted on the investors section of our website for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us and Happy Thanksgiving. First of all, I want to welcome Faten Freiha, who joined BJ's as a Vice President of Investor Relations earlier this month. Many of you know Faten who was previously at UNFI, we are thrilled to have her on our team and look forward to working with her. In the third quarter we successfully executed a secondary offering of approximately 32 million shares. This reduces the combined ownership of CVC and Leonard Green & Partners to approximately 40%. As a result, we have started to add more independent directors to our Board. To that end, I also want to welcome Judy Werthauser, Executive Vice President and Chief People Officer at Dominoes Pizza to our Board. Based on her experience at Dominoes and at Target, Judy will be a valuable addition to our Board. We are pleased with our third quarter performance. While we're in the early stages of our transformation, we continue to make progress and we exceeded our expectations for sales, earnings, and gross margin. In the third quarter we saw sales growth of 4.3% and merchandise comp sales of 1.9%, our fifth straight quarter of positive merchandise comps and an acceleration of our two-year stack. Adjusted EBITDA was at $149 million which is up 5.3% over last year is an all-time high for our company in the third quarter. Our performance was particularly strong in our core Northeastern markets. Our progress continues to be driven by disciplined investments in the capabilities necessary to unlock our true potential over time. We believe these investments are driving growth across our strategic priorities. First, I'd like to update you on acquiring and retaining our member base. Membership is the foundation of our company. In Q3 our membership and renewal rate trends…

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thanks Chris, good afternoon everyone. As Chris noted, during the third quarter we continued to drives gains in sales and see encouraging membership trends. In addition, we improved our gross margin enabling us to invest to further our capabilities and fuel topline growth. Finally our profitability and cash flow results were very strong. Our performance demonstrates our continued execution against our strategic priorities, attracting and retaining members, delivering value to get them shopping, making it more convenient to shop at BJ's, and expanding our strategic footprint. Let's turn to our results. For the quarter net sales increased by 4.3% to $3.2 billion. Comp sales increased by 3.6% including a 1.7% favorable impact from the sale of gasoline. Merchandise comp sales which exclude gasoline sales, increased by 1.9%, primarily driven by increased traffic. Let me give you some color on two factors that impacting our sales performance for the quarter. First, as Chris mentioned earlier, the membership open house event that we ran in the back half of the quarter performed in line with similar historical events and represented a contribution of approximately 0.2% to our merchandise comp sales results. We expect to see additional membership and sales benefits over time from this event. Second, after experiencing very little net inflation or deflation in the first half of the year, deflation accelerated in the third quarter, primarily in our Perishables division. The impact of this net deflation was approximately 1.5% on our Perishables division comp or 0.4% on the total company merchandise comp for the third quarter. We have improved comps across all of our four divisions since the beginning of the fiscal year. Our General Merchandise business led our merchandise comp sales gains with 5% comp during the quarter. This represents a stack comp for our GM business of 8%…

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

I want to close by saying that we're pleased with our Q3 results. Our performance shows that we're making progress on our transformation as we exceeded expectations for sales, earnings, margin, and reduced our debt. We remain on track to reach historic highs for membership and renewal rates. We feel very good about our holiday plans and our ability to deliver on our long term targets. I most importantly want to thank every one of our team members who've worked so hard to help us transform our company. We're very proud of their efforts and think we have many, many miles to continue to go in our transformation. And I'd like to wish everybody on the call a Happy Thanksgiving. With that operator, we'll go to Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Robby Ohmes from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

Hey, guys congrats on a good quarter. Actually two quick questions, the first was just you know now that you're beyond the member open house, what do the trends look like on how well you are converting some of those people to members, do you have any data on that, any thoughts on how that might help membership growth going forward?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Look Robby, I think overall we feel very good about the membership growth overall. We're not going to get into the specifics of every tactic we pull, but as we think about our transformation Robby, over time we started with changing dramatically the company's ability to earn and we've started over the last year and a half or so reinvesting that money in earning the right to grow as Bob indicated in his comments. Membership is the most important investment we'll make and we'll continue to use different approaches to appeal to both new members and frankly lapsed members. The big news for us is how important lapsed members and digitally acquired members have been to improving. In total they're probably a little bit over 20% of our acquired members in the year and we feel really good about our ability to continue to do that.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

That sounds great. And then, I guess this might be for Bob. Can you give us any guidance on - for gasoline it was year-over-year is gas a tailwind or headwind to your profitability in the quarter you just reported and then maybe thoughts on how we should think about it in the fourth quarter?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Yes. Hey Robby, gas has certainly been a little bit of a tailwind at the end of Q3 here and the beginning of Q4, not an incredible tailwind, but certainly the market has provided some benefit there. As you think about Q4, Q4 tends to be the most volatile of the quarters from a gasoline pricing perspective. So the favorability that we've seen so far in Q4 could easily go away. So we're not putting it in the bank yet, but it's certainly had been a little bit of a tailwind so far.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

Got it. That's really helpful. Thanks guys.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

No problem. Thanks Robby.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers from J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

You sound very fancy, it's Horvers.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

I'm glad you said that Chris, because I was going to be really tempted.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

So, first question is on the comp guide. Bob you sort of said we continue to expect 4Q to be better than the third quarter, but then you've got deflation, if you drafted it in the model it's pretty wide. It's sort of like one 1.5 to 2.5 implied complex guess. So just could you sharpen the pencil on the 4Q comp guide?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Yes, Chris, you're absolutely right, that's the implied Q4 range and when we think about, we think about how to rationalize that - come off the trend that we've had all year long of somewhere around 2 and we told you in the prior quarterly call that Q4 was shaping up a little bit better, we still believe that ex the impact of deflation. So if we hadn't seen that deflation we probably would have taken the applied range for Q4 up a little bit more than what we took it up from this standpoint. So that range is a midpoint of 2 which is more or less the trend that we've seen, but reflects that headwind from a deflation perspective. So we're feeling pretty good about the business at this point and even in the deflationary categories we feel great about the unit growth that we've seen in those categories that tells us it’s a temporary pricing issue not a business issue and our traffic is growing nicely. So we're not so worried about any of that.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Understood. And then as a follow-up question, the CPI benefit, the merchandise margin expansion has been strong all year, I think up 60 in the in the third quarter which is pretty similar to the second quarter. Can you talk about what your outlook is implied in the fourth quarter and how much legs do you think there is on CPI as we look to 2019? And then just as a tangential question, this fresh deflation does that end up being a benefit or a headwind from a merchandise rate perspective? Thanks.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

So certainly, we beat our expectations from a CPI perspective in Q3 and we had forecasted, we are little lower than 60 and came out on the high side of that. I would say, we hope for the same thing to happen in Q4, we're forecasting lower than 60 and expect to roughly do a little bit better when everything is said and done. We have future savings coming of things that we've already sourced and we expect to continue this program going forward in its current iteration as well as new iterations. In my comments, I talked about how we are evolving the process a little bit and Chris talked about some of the assortment changes that we've made in categories like Baby and HBA. Those started as ideas that fell out of the CPI process and so now we're merging those two thoughts to have one coherent process to get the right assortment on the shelves at the right cost. So to us that's really the next leg of growth from a CPI perspective is taking a holistic look at categories understanding what should be on the shelves, understanding our relevant brands versus our strength in owned brands in each particular category and making some bolder bets from an assortment perspective as we go. We've proven that it works in apparel and HBA so far and in Baby, we will see how that continues to work as we roll it out throughout the chain in Q1, but we are happy with where we are from a CPI perspective. We are very pleased with the results in Q3. We have chosen to hopefully be conservative in our guidance in Q4 and we see a lot of growth coming from that perspective as we enter next year. From a fresh perspective, I guess what I would tell you is, we saw significant margin growth in Q3 in our fresh categories. The vast, vast majority of that was due to CPI efforts rather than any of the pricing or cost changes associated with deflationary categories. And I'd ask you to remember back to some of our earlier discussions when we were first telling you about our CPI process, we put a chart up in front of everybody that talked about the different categories that we had done on that chart. We hadn't done a whole lot of perishables categories at that point and this is our first year that we have really touched perishables with any vigor. That has yielded great results. It was our highest margin growth in basis points of our four divisions by a long margin and no pun intended and that that should continue, so that's what I'd tell you.

Christopher Horvers

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

No problem.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Baker from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Mike Baker

Analyst

Hi, thanks. A couple more merchandising questions, you didn’t talked about toys at all, at least I didn’t hear it, and I know that was one of the reasons why are you expecting a 4Q comp acceleration, so if you could touch on what you're seeing in that category?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, hi Mike, thanks your question. Toys is an important category for us. We feel very good about our toy assortment if you’re in our clubs at all in the last few weeks. We feel really good about the assortment we have. We expect it to grow substantially. We expect to grow share in toys and in particular we're doing a much better job online with toys as well. So the combination makes us feel really good as we go into the fourth quarter given the market disruption in that category.

Mike Baker

Analyst

Okay. And I guess as a followup because this is on the same topic of same-store sales, can you discuss the monthly trends and you said Northeast was strong than any other regional calls or impacts from weather, hurricanes, rain in Mid-Atlantic, et cetera?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, overall the business was strong in the last month of the quarter and it was a little, it was not as good as we wanted to be right in the middle because of all the rain you refer to. So we had the hurricane from a year ago in the basin we talked to you in our last call about the issue associated with in the year ago period in Florida where there was quite a bit of government spending after the hurricane which provided some comp strength which we were up against this year. And in our Northeast markets, we performed really, really well despite the fact that the rainfall, our intent is never to give you a weather report, but rainfall was up between 50% and 100% in these markets, you folks mostly live in them, so you felt that just like we have. So it's been a very another wet cold quarter and despite that we feel we got through it, but we consider weather to be about a half a point of comp headwind in the quarter. To give you some texture on that Mike, on the hurricane impact just batteries year-on-year was down $3 million in the quarter, that's about a 10th of a point to comp on the company and that was all because of what happened a year ago in the hurricane period last year in the southeast.

Mike Baker

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Hi, everyone. Good evening. My first question is, if you look at spend per existing number and you strip away fuel, I don't think you'll tell us what that’s trending on a number basis, but can you tell us directionally how that looks and I guess it sounds like now we probably should think about weather and some of the perishable deflation to try to normalize those numbers?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Yes Simeon, I guess what I would tell you on that one is spend per member is going up a little bit, and you look at the – just look at the core of the business you've got traffic gains, you've got a little bit more members in there as well, but we feel good about the member shopping, the member spend trends that we see on average. Chris mentioned some of the things that are also affecting the business in his comments right, we're bringing back more lapses members. That's been an important thing for us too as we go. So as we look across the member portfolio, we're pretty pleased with a lot of what we see.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Okay. And my followup is on the topline and the initiatives that you're working on surrounding memberships, surrounding assortments, is it reasonable to expect that the run rate of the business in terms of topline growth should accelerate as these initiatives take hold or is it that look the business should continue at this steady rate as a result of these efforts?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

I think the way that I would answer that is through the lens of our general merchandise business which is a business that was declining for most of my tenure with the company and now we've turned that around. We're doing a nice job comping the comp this year and stacking comps. It's the business that together as a team we've been working the longest on together that was the first business we started playing with from a growth perspective and so you're seeing that bear fruit faster than the rest. But look it's a competitive world out there, so we're trying to move as fast as possible in the rest of the categories and no one is less satisfied with our pace than ourselves. We are very critical of ourselves on how fast we're moving to change the assortment and deliver value in every category that we have. And so you're seeing us make some good early wins here and we look forward to putting more runs up on the board, but we also understand our responsibility to all of our investors to put numbers out there that we know we can hit. And so you're never going to hear us, at least I don't think put out grandiose comp expectations. You're going to hear us have reasonably balanced views of our business. We will be bullish in the categories that we're bullish and will be reasonable in the other ones. So as you think about longer term guidance, I wouldn't stray too far from what we told you from a long-term guidance perspective last year until we’re ready to really move that around.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Yes, thanks Bob.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thanks Simeon.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Kate McShane from Citi. Your line is open.

Kate McShane

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I just wondered if you could comment at all about anything you saw during the quarter with regards to market share gains in general and how it contributed to the comp or any perspective on contribution from Sam’s Club in the third quarter and the Sam’s Club closures?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thanks Kate. Overall market share was in our fresh in grocery business was about flat and we believe we grew share in general merchandise as we put up a five comp 8 stack. So overall we probably grew by a little bit overall. And this is a story to Bob's earlier comments where we're trying to be really balanced in how we make investments based on our ability to make progress on our cost structure and reinvest the business in the long term health for the benefit of the company and shareholders over time. In terms of Sam's we continue to work on making sure we're giving those members the services they want in the markets in which Sam's is exited and we don't get into specifics, but we feel good about our ability to continue to meet the needs of those members.

Kate McShane

Analyst

Okay great. And if I could just ask a followup question on the general merchandise categories in Q4 just from a margin standpoint with investment in categories like toys and some of the hard lines from a mix perspective will this be offset by the higher margin in apparel?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, Bob gave you some guidance, why don’t you give some sense of what that looks like Bob?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

I think that's fair. I mean general merchandise is a really general statement performs around the company average from a merchandise margin perspective. So I wouldn't tell you it's very high margin, I wouldn't tell you it's very low margin. Certainly some of the moves we've made in the past couple of years have helped from a mix perspective. As you think about Q4 specifically, Q4 is a little lower margin from a GM perspective as it's a more promotional time as you might expect. So we've modeled that into our guidance for the quarter and we're looking forward to beating it.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Hey Kate, let me just add one thing. I usually don't add on, but I want to on this. When Lee Delaney and his team have done quite frankly an outstanding job in helping the company think about mix and how it manages everything from assortment to how we market to how we promote. And on that basis we feel good about where we are as we head into the fourth quarter that we'll been able to deliver on the guidance Bob provided.

Kate McShane

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Peter Benedict from Baird. Your line is open.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Hey guys thanks. First question auto renew. Can you give us a sense of maybe how that's tracking relative to your expectations? I assume it's up versus last year but just what's happening with auto renew?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Auto renewal is, we now have just a little bit over 50% of our members on auto renewal, 51 is the number.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

All right terrific. On the deflation, is that purely commodities based or are you guys doing anything or is anyone in the market doing something to try to maybe push on price to drive units?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

I would tell you it's mostly the cost coming through. There are some places that it's a little bit disconnected where the cost might be down a little bit more or less than the prices gone through, but as a general statement it's all commodity based. So you're seeing it play through that way. And we've seen as I said in my comments great unit growth in most of those categories. So take a category like fresh fruit, we were down five from a cost perspective but up 8% in units, so we're not we're not dropping units as we go as well. So we'll manage our way through it and in the CPI process can be helpful as we do that and we know we'll come out the other side and be just fine.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Okay, great. And then just the last question and maybe a little more color as to why Michigan and when we should maybe expect other new markets to come up on your store opening plan? Thank you.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Bill and his team have done a really good job of working on the markets that we think that our offering would be a value add to the consumers we have the good fortune to serve and as we looked at Eastern Michigan, the combination of the consumer base the competitive environment was one that was pretty compelling to us and we're excited about going there late next year. So will - and we'll keep you posted on any further expansion as we go forward.

Peter Benedict

Analyst

Okay great. Thanks so much, guys.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thanks Peter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Hi guys. Good afternoon. Can I ask about the, I do want to start asking about the fresh business. Can you just talk about what you're seeing there, especially from like an underlying momentum standpoint? I mean I know we had deflation this quarter, but units seem a little sluggish, share is flat. This category is an opportunity for you, so how are you feeling about the progress maybe an update on in club execution and just how focused are you on driving you know better units going forward here?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, sure. Thanks for the question. I wouldn't say that our units have been sluggish. The category as a whole was flat, but that was point and a half of deflation offset by unit. So it's not like we're bleeding units or even really flat in units. We've seen nice growth in many, many categories and in particular the key categories. So if you think about fruit and vegetables as I said a second ago fruit was up 8 during the quarter, vegetables are up 6 during the quarter. So we're in really key categories like that seeing great unit growth and that directly links back to the improved execution from our club operations team. We've put a tremendous amount of pressure and resources behind fixing the execution out there, getting it more consistent, making sure that we have the right team members in the right place at the right time, training those team members. We've talked about putting the right team members behind the membership desk. All of those things, it's not just a fresh thing for us, it's making sure that we feel great about the entire business. And so, we're pretty pleased with the fresh business. It remains an opportunity for us. As you know it's a long term rebuild of that business, but as we sit here today from the place we started two years ago we are very happy with the progress that we've made and we've we see a whole lot more coming.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

And then just as a followup one, when CPI and the upside that you're seeing from the process, when thinking about as that relates to the level of comps and where top line of the business is today, any thoughts around taking some of the upside from the process and looking at that value bucket that's important for you and pushing a little bit harder on that value bucket with the upside to get some complex out of that, just thoughts on how you think about that whole balance?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Ed, let me give you my perspective on that. Overall Lee and his team have done a really good job in managing CPI. And overall the approach we've talked to investors about is a pretty balanced approach between sales and earnings growth, but pricing and our ability to deliver on the pricing model that we've talked to you about at some length is sacrosanct where we are, we will never come off of that in my tenure here. And so our ability to continue to drive value that leads the market across the board is something we feel great about. The place where we think we are able to do - to continue to improve the track record and what has delivered, what several quarters of improved stacks over time is our ability to do the right value proposition as well as the right assortment. But we've talked about trading jewelry for apparel, we've talked about trading, doing some better work in baby. We've talked about doing some better work in a variety of house wares categories and Lee and his team have done a really, really good job in that. And so we're going to continue to offer market leading value and we are going to continue to invest in price every single day.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

The other thing I'd ask you to think about Ed is how we're investing in technology to drive value like the tire business in club stores is terrific, but it's not that convenient. So we're investing in technology. I made a couple of comments in my comments about you can save 100 bucks but it's not that convenient, and the investments we're making in technology to make the trip more convenient, I think also can help us.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Got it, thanks.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thank you, thanks Ed.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel from Nomura/Instinet. Your line is open.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Thanks, good afternoon guys. Nice quarter. Chris, what do you say the private label penetration was this year versus same period last year, maybe an update on where you think that can go? And then Bob, just as we round out this year, any color on things to keep in mind for expenses next year and if there is anything wage related or freight or just any things to keep in mind? Thanks.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, I’ll take a shot at both and then Bob can add. Simeon, the number in private label was 20%. Seasonally it's a low quarter for us in private label because we don't have things like big seasonal patio sets and frankly we expect some of the private label things we're doing in the fourth quarter to flow through an even better number as we look at that quarter. So 20% is the answer to that question and we feel good about our private label business. Over time, we expect that number to grow to at least 25%. This year we’re up about 60 basis points so far this year and we think we're going to get about a point a year. On the expenses in the macro, I know there's a lot of questions about wage inflation and there's no question that in certain markets we're dealing with some wage inflation but we'll continue to deal with that locally. I'd ask you to consider that relative to other retailers in general, this is a lower labor model, so as you think about wage cost inflation it's less of an impact for us than others. On freight, we also have a dedicated fleet that we work with one of our suppliers on that. We have been able to manage through some freight pressure, there is some freight pressure for sure, but it's nowhere near what others are dealing with. Bob, do you have anything to add to that?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

No, I think those are the two big ones we talk the most to investors about and we'll give you detailed guidance on our next call for next fiscal year.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Thanks guys. Best of luck for holidays.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thank you Siegel, Simeon.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom from Gordon Haskett. Your line is open.

Gordon Grom

Analyst

Hey thanks, guys good afternoon. Just to circle back on the general merchandize side of the equation, where it's going to settle out as a percentage of the mix in 2018 and then just to give some perspective where was it maybe five to 10 years ago and I guess how quickly do you think you can narrow that gap looking ahead?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Probably the high watermark for the company was in the low to mid-20s. We’re up in the higher teens now, Chuck. I think you've written about this and take the numbers pretty accurately from back in the 25% days, there's no question that company had done think about it as 25 probably to a lower 15, we’re back in the 18 range and we expect to get back to 25. I've said it a couple of times now, Lee and his team have done a really, really good job in managing assortment. Our team there is, we've made material investments in things like TV signals and there's a lot of room to continue to figure that out and we feel good about that.

Gordon Grom

Analyst

Okay, then Bob, just any sense of how much that implies as a percentage of the mix from 3Q to 4Q as you have a pretty easy comparable in that general merchandise category from last year?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

We do, we're certainly expecting some good results from our team here in Q4. I wouldn't say it's a tremendous benefit to the mix, but it's certainly baked into the comp guidance that we've got and the margin guidance that we’ve got out there.

Gordon Grom

Analyst

Okay, great and then just Chris, bigger picture you talked about it in your opening remarks about the opportunity from lapsed members, just wondering if you've done any more work on the catalog that's out there, how you can go about attracting them back, just sort of frame out the opportunity because it seems to be pretty big?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, we think it is and I think that the - Chuck probably the most interesting thing that really brought this to my mind was two years ago we opened in Kearny, New Jersey which is eight or nine miles north of Newark Airport and frankly it's an infill club in a market where we're pretty saturated, and about 15% of the members we got in that club which has been very successful were lapsed members which had us think a little more strategically about how we approach that opportunity. So as we think about the fact that we've made some progress with the company and I keep on saying it but we have miles to go but as we've made more progress, our membership team led by Brian Poulliot has done a good job in reaching back into the member roles to make sure they understand the value prop we offer with a particular emphasis on the capabilities we have today BOPIC, same day delivery, a much better general merchandise assortment and using those as marketing tools to get them back in. And I said in my comments that the most compelling thing about our membership proposition is the combination of what we've been able to do digitally and getting at lapsed members.

Gordon Grom

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks a lot, Happy Thanksgiving to both of you guys.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thank you, Chuck.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thanks Chuck.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Laura Champine from Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Thank you. I think my question is for Bob and can you give us a look into where you think interest expense is likely to fall out next fiscal year and maybe comment on your balance sheet goals more generally?

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Yes, hi Laura. Certainly, we've got a lot more visibility and I tried to give you color on that during my prepared remarks, given we've fixed a big chunk of the LIBOR exposure at this point. Going forward, first and foremost what we're trying to do is get leverage below three times. We've made considerable progress against that goal this year and should be there before the end of the year, next year. We'll do that obviously by paying down debt somewhere in the neighborhood of a couple of $100 million per year is how you should think about it. So if you're running your model, now you've got a fixed LIBOR rate at 3% and our first lien is at 3% spread and our ABLs at 125 spread, I believe. So you can kind of run the model that way. There might be it’s a market get a little bit better, there might be a repricing opportunity next year. As we look forward to that, there was probably one earlier in Q3 for us before the equity market went sideways, but we've got the soft call in place that expires, I believe in early February. So look, we will look to do the best job we can getting up free cash flow and use that to de-lever and get down to that three times mark as soon as possible and that will obviously hit interest expense lower and lower as we go.

Laura Champine

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thanks Laura.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Scott Mushkin from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. So I guess I'm trying to kind of understand a little bit of the promotion that you ran, I think you called it open house three months free. I guess my first question around that is, when is the last time you did that three months free and then half of your off the next year?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

The company ran an event like this in 2012. So that's the answer.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Okay, great. And then my followup question obviously most a lot of us on this call fallow Costco and one of the ways the investors look at it is membership is an annuity and then not looking at it as a gross margin story, you guys are almost a little different in kind of memberships being given away for free, but we're going to do gross margin improvement. I guess I'm just trying to understand as investors how we're supposed to look at that from in comparing to your closest competitor?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Scott, I would challenge the notion that we're giving membership away for free. We got almost over 5 million paid members, they pay us on average of 55 bucks a year to come in and experience the value and the offering that we have. So that simple answer is we're not giving it away for free, it's almost $300 million of profit roughly half of our adjusted EBITDA. So start from that perspective. We have great renewal rates, they've been improving every single year this team has been together. We are now going to, at the end of this year hopefully report our fourth all time high of renewal rates in a row and we are getting in the neighborhood of Costco's renewal rates. We've still got a whole lot of work to do to get there, but the trend is impressive and so that annuity of the membership is certainly in play in our business just as it is in theirs. We absolutely look at it that way and that's why we spend a whole lot of time talking and thinking about how to provide our members the best experience and the best value that we can every single day because the annuity is the backbone of the business and if we don't give them a good experience and a good price when they come in to buy then it threatens the existence of that annuity. So we feel great about our membership business. It's been dramatically improving over the last couple of years and I’d encourage every investor out there to look at it through that annuity lens as they think about the value of our company and the value of our stock.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

The other thing Scott I think that's important is this, our ability to improve margin is in driven entirely by our ability to buy better not taking pricing period. So as we came in here as a team a couple of years ago, it was obvious that - it was obvious that the company’s ability to procure was weak and we have reset that capability and feel really good about the progress. But the first thing we do when we think about our procurement capability is how do we make sure we're price right in the marketplace. Thanks for your question.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chuck Cerankosky from Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Hi, Chuck.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Hi, Chuck.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Hi there. Good afternoon everybody. Thanks. Congratulations on a good quarter. And looking at the 5% comps in general merch and then the lower numbers in grocery and food and I know you've got some deflation in there, should those be closer together and what gets them both at higher levels and I'd say the general merch is at a pretty good leve?.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Yes, I think over time Chuck we are, I've been really consistent and probably a little bit boring is we're investing in some core capabilities that we think will benefit the company over time. And I'll accept, I clearly accept that and I feel good about what we're doing and we're all incented to move it more quickly. I do not think the grocery business particularly is the center store grocery business, I'm not sure that one is going to ever grow at the mid to high single digits. But our ability to continue to make progress to run our fresh business well which we're starting to make progress on the GM business is all about, how do we price, how do we have assort and how do we market. And the combination of those capabilities, how we think about our investment pools and what are we going to invest in to create a great experience for the member and over time we expect to continue to make progress.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

Do you include and see opportunity for fresh prepared foods as part of that?

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

We certainly do. You'll see more from us in that regard in the future for sure. We think fresh prepared food is a terrific category. Frankly, we don't do much more than rotisserie chicken today and some of the encouraging progress that has been made in private label is in things like seafood and soup that we talked about this quarter, it makes us even more encouraged about fresh, prepared fresh over time.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst

All right, thank you very much. Good luck in the final quarter.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thanks Chuck.

Robert Eddy

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I would now like to turn the conference back to Chris Baldwin for any closing comments.

Christopher Baldwin

Analyst

Thank you very much for your time. We wish all of you a happy and healthy and most importantly a safe Thanksgiving. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect.