Jeffrey Capello
Analyst · Evan Seigerman from Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Thanks, Al. Good morning, everyone. Prior to starting my comments on the financial performance, I want to highlight that we believe the fundamentals of our business are strong and we are well-positioned. Our products are important therapies for patients living with serious diseases. We have strong operating process, enabling us to operate effectively through these challenging times. We also pride ourselves in our ability to execute well commercially. In addition, we are well capitalized financially. These are however unprecedented times that will have an impact on our business. I will now review our financial performance, highlighting the various factors to give you a sense of our performance and then wrap up with commentary on our outlook. I'll start with our revenues. Total revenues for the first quarter grew 1% year-over-year to approximately $3.5 billion. It's important to note that we believe Q1 benefited from approximately $100 million attributed to accelerated sales due to COVID-19 pandemic, primarily in Europe. As a reminder, Q1 2019 included a benefit of approximately $200 million in other revenues due to the sale of hemophilia inventory to Bioverativ. Overall, we executed well in our MS business, delivering revenues of approximately $2.3 billion in the first quarter of this year, including OCREVUS royalties of approximately $162 million, growing 9% versus prior year. Global MS revenues in Q1 2020 increased 7% versus the prior year without OCREVUS royalties. US MS revenues excluding OCREVUS increased 4% or $58 million versus the prior year. US MS revenues in Q1 2020 were impacted by a decrease from channel inventory of approximately $115 million compared to a decrease of approximately $170 million in Q1 2019. We estimate that we had $54 million in additional sales due to a greater number of shipping days in the quarter. Roughly half of which impacted the inventory quarterly change. In addition, we believe we benefited from a net $15 million sales impact due to COVID-19 primarily impacting TECFIDERA. Outside the US, our MS revenues grew 11% or $77 million on higher volumes, with minimal price impact and an estimated COVID-19 beneficial impact of $59 million, primarily split between TECFIDERA and interferon. Global first quarter Fumarate revenues, including TECFIDERA and VUMERITY increased 10% versus the prior year, driven by revenue growth both in the US and outside the US. In the US, Fumarate revenue grew at 8% or $60 million versus prior year. US Fumarate revenues were impacted by a decrease in channel inventory of approximately $85 million in the first quarter of 2020 compared to a decrease of approximately $110 million in Q1 2019. Versus the prior year, we saw favorable demand for TECFIDERA which we believe is primarily due to the extra shipping days and COVID-19 impact with roughly stable underlying performance without those impacts. After an initial channel load in Q4, VUMERITY had sales of $2 million in the US in the first quarter of 2020. And we were making good progress securing access and reimbursement. Within the US we were pleased to see strong execution with continued stability in our share of total prescriptions for the fumarates versus the prior quarter, in light of increased competition. It's important to note that the vast majority of TECFIDERA and VUMERITY prescriptions in the US are delivered via mail order and as a result we do not expect a significant impact to TECFIDERA due to COVID-19. Outside the US, TECFIDERA again performed very well with Q1 2020 revenues growing 15% or $42 million, including an estimated benefit of approximate $28 million due to inventory dynamics related to COVID-19. Importantly, the number of TECFIDERA patients outside US grew by approximately 13% versus the prior year, driven by positive patient growth in the large European markets and approximately 40% patient growth in Latin American, Asia-Pacific combined. In total, we were pleased to see strong global patient growth for TECFIDERA of approximately 8% year-over-year. Q1 global interferon revenues, including both AVONEX and PLEGRIDY decreased 7% versus Q1 2019 due to continued shift from the injectable platforms to oral or higher efficacy therapies. In the US, interferon revenues decreased 11% or $35 million versus the prior year. Within the US AVONEX and PLEGRIDY were impacted by the continued transition to oral and high efficacy therapies and by decreasing channel inventory of approximately $35 million [ph] compared to a decrease of approximately $50 million in Q1 2019, partially impacted by the extra shipping days. Similar to TECFIDERA the vast majority of interferon prescriptions in the US are delivered via mail order. Outside the US, interferon revenues were stable versus the prior year with an estimated benefit of approximate $21 million due to increased channel inventory related to COVID-19. Given their safety profile and potential antiviral properties, we are seeing an increased interest in our interferon products, which may present an opportunity for less erosion in this franchise going forward. This is a dynamic that we'll watch carefully as time progresses. TYSABRI worldwide revenues increased 13% or $62 million versus the prior - versus the first quarter of 2019. In the US TYSABRI revenues increased 13% versus the prior year or $33 million. US TYSABRI revenues were impacted by an increase in channel inventory of approximately $5 million compared to a decrease of approximately $10 million in Q1 20 19. Within the US, we were pleased to see roughly stable adjusted volumes and share of new prescriptions, as well as an increased share of total prescriptions for TYSABRI versus the prior quarter. Outside the US, TYSABRI revenues increased 14% or $29 million versus the prior year, with an estimated benefit of approximately $7 million due to increased channel inventory related to COVID-19. Q1 2020 TYSABRI revenues benefited by approximate $20 million due to pricing adjustment in Italy related to prior periods. Outside the US, we are pleased to see continued patient growth of 4% for TYSABRI versus the prior year. Given that TYSABRI is administered in the physician's office or hospital setting, we do expect an impact from COVID-19 on TYSABRI sales. As we attempt to mitigate this risk, we are working to enable TYSABRI home infusions within the US where appropriate. Overall, we were pleased with the execution of our MS franchise and the continued strong performance of our MS business in the first quarter. While there is some uncertainty in our MS trajectory given COVID-19, particularly for TYSABRI, there are also opportunities and we remain encouraged by the resilience of our market leading franchise. Let me now move on to SPINRAZA - excuse me. Global first quarter SPINRAZA revenues increased to 9% for the prior year to $565 million. In the US, revenues increased 5% versus Q1 2019 and decreased 3% versus Q4 2019. The number of patients on therapy in the US increased 1% as compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2019, driven primarily by growth in the number of adults. We believe US SPINRAZA revenues benefited by approximately $6 million due to COVID-19. In addition, leading indicators suggest that we may be seeing a decrease in new patient starts, particularly among adults, as well as a decrease in compliance, both related to COVID-19. We are aware that some physicians and hospitals are delaying SPINRAZA dosesm as they make difficult prioritization decisions, while confronting COVID-19. Although we continue to work to ensure patients receive this critical treatment and I've seen more centers come back online. Outside the US, SPINRAZA revenues increased 12% versus Q1 2019 and 10% versus Q4 2019, driven primarily by increased penetration across all major geographies. With an estimated benefit of approximately $5 million due to increased channel inventory related to COVID-19. Outside the US, we have also seen a moderate impact on demand for SPINRAZA due to COVID-19, which we expect may continue. As a reminder, the first quarter of last year benefited from a positive pricing adjustment of $14 million in France, negatively impacting the year-over-year comparison. In total outside the US, the number of commercial SPINRAZA patients increased approximate 10% versus the prior quarter. Broad growth occurred again across all major regions with an increased number of countries contributing, as we continue this very successful product launch. Overall, we were pleased with SPINRAZA’s performance in the first quarter. While we recognize there is some uncertainty in its trajectory given COVID-19 pandemic, we still believe there are continued opportunities for growth, given the significant number of untreated patients, including in many established and emerging markets. Let me now move on to our biosimilars business, which generated $219 million in this quarter, growing 25% versus the prior year or $44 million. We estimate that there are now approximately 215,000 patients using our biosimilars in Europe. BENEPALI remains the number one prescribed Enbrel biosimilar across the major EU five markets. FLIXABI volume grew 90% versus the prior year, and IMRALDI volumes grew 28% versus fourth quarter. Despite our biosimilars business benefiting by approximately $15 million due to COVID-19 with the quarter, this business again performed well and has the opportunity to continue to grow both in Europe, as well as potentially within the US and other geographies with our additional assets. Total anti-CD20 revenues in Q1 increased 1% versus the prior year with increased OCREVUS royalties offsetting decreased revenues from RITUXAN due to recent introduction of biosimilar. Total other revenues in the first quarter decreased 63% versus the r year, due primarily to the prior period sale of approximately $200 million of hemophilia inventory to Bioverativ in the first quarter of 2019. Let me now turn to gross margins. Q1 2020 gross margin was 87%, an improvement versus the 83% in the prior year, due to lower contract manufacturing revenue and was relatively stable versus the prior quarter. Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP R&D expense were both 13% of revenue. As a reminder, R&D expense in the first quarter of 2019 included approximate $39 million related to our agreement with Skyhawk, and approximately $45 million in net closeout costs for the Phase III studies of aducanumab. R&D expense in Q1 2020 was lower in part to the timing of milestones which are difficult to predict. Note, in the second quarter of 2020 we expect to record a GAAP and non-GAAP R&D expense of $125 million for the license fee related to our collaboration with Sangamo. Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP SG&A were both 16% of revenue. We still expect SG&A to increase throughout the year, as we ramp up our commercial preparations for aducanumab. Q1 GAAP other expense was $120 million, which included $61 million in unrealized losses on investments, primarily driven by decrease in the fair value of our equity investment in Ionis. Q1 non-GAAP other expense was $60 million. In Q1 of this year, our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates were both approximate 17%. In the first quarter 2019 our GAAP FX tax rate included a one time charge related to the planned divestiture of our Hillerød. Denmark manufacturing operations, as well as higher unrealized gains. We repurchased approximately 7.3 million shares in the first quarter at an average price of $303 for a total value of approximately $2.2 billion. The share repurchase program authorized in March 2019 has now been completed and as of the end of the first quarter approximately $4.1 billion was remaining under the share repurchase program authorized in December. That now brings us to our diluted earnings per share. In the first quarter we booked GAAP EPS of $8.08, an increase of 13% versus the prior year and non-GAAP earnings of $9.14 per share, a 31% increase versus the prior year. We generated approximately $1.5 billion in net cash flows from operations in Q1. We ended the quarter with approximately $4.8 million in cash, marketable securities and $6 billion in debt. As we think about the balance of the year, we acknowledge that these are unprecedented times and there's significant uncertainty. Let me now outline what we do know. We again performed well operationally in the first quarter and saw some benefit from accelerated sales that occurred relative to COVID-19. We expect some volatility in revenues between the quarters. We have seen some disruption start to materialize, particularly for TYSABRI and SPINRAZA due to physician administration and facility capacity, as we have seen some delays in dosing. We believe our therapies are essential for patients and we are actively working to help patients maintain their dosing schedules. We are also mindful of the potential macro risks from the economic environment and the impact on the health care systems, including a potential impact on payer mix. At the same time, as demonstrated in the past, we remain focused on strong commercial execution, which we believe may in part help mitigate these risks. We also may benefit from a potential decrease in competitive pressures across several business areas and potentially renewed interest in our interferon therapies. As a reminder, we have a policy to update our guidance once a year and in July and we should hopefully know more by then. Let me now turn the call back over to Michel for his closing comments.