Jeff Capello
Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open
Thanks Mike. Good morning, everyone. Let me now provide a little more detail on our financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2017 and share with you our guidance for 2018. Let’s start with revenues. As Michel mentioned earlier, we had a strong Q4 2017 from a revenue perspective. Total revenues for Q4 grew 15% year-over-year to approximately $3.3 billion and grew 7% for the full year to $12.3 billion. Excluding the impact of the spinoff of our hemophilia business, total revenue grew 26% for the fourth quarter and 15% for the full year versus the prior year periods. Let me now provide more detail for our MS franchise revenues. Global fourth quarter TECFIDERA revenues were $1.1 billion, a 7% increase versus the prior year. This included revenues of $832 million in the U.S., an increase of 4% versus Q4 ‘16 and $244 million outside the U.S., an increase of 22% versus the fourth quarter of 2016. Despite the benefit of a roughly $20 million increase of inventory in the channel in the U.S. versus the third quarter of 2017. We are pleased with our net low single-digit growth versus Q4 ‘16 as we absorb the impact of OCREVUS. In addition, we are very encouraged by the growth outside the U.S. driven by patient growth across almost every large market in Europe and strong emerging market growth. For the full year, worldwide TECFIDERA revenues were $4.2 billion, an increase of 6% versus prior year. This includes $3.3 billion in the U.S. and $920 million in sales outside the U.S. Interferon revenues including both AVONEX and PLEGRIDY were $645 million for the fourth quarter, a decrease of 6% versus Q4 ‘16 due to continued shift from the injectable platforms to oral or high efficacy therapies. This included $449 million in the U.S. and $196 million in sales outside the U.S. Within the U.S., AVONEX and PLEGRIDY benefited from the inventory build of approximately $15 million, while outside the U.S., Avonex benefited from a $9 million shipment to Brazil, neither of which are expected to recur in the first quarter of 2018. For the full year, worldwide interferon revenues were $2.6 billion, consisting of $1.9 billion in the U.S. and $757 million in sales outside the U.S. TYSABRI worldwide revenues were $463 million this quarter, a decrease of 2% versus the fourth quarter of 2016. This included $252 million in the U.S. and $211 million outside the U.S. In the U.S., revenues declined 13% versus the prior year. We saw an impact on TYSABRI shortly following the launch of OCREVUS both in terms of new patient starts and patient discontinuations. However, we believe both of these trends have now stabilized at new run-rate. Within the U.S., TYSABRI benefited from an inventory build of approximately $5 million. Outside the U.S., we had very strong TYSABRI growth of 14% versus prior year driven by both the large order of $6 million in Russia as well as solid growth in all major European countries driven by patient growth following the label update in 2017. For the full year, worldwide TYSABRI revenues were approximately $2 billion stable versus the prior year. We recorded U.S. revenues of $1.1 billion and $859 million internationally. As expected, across our MS business, we saw an increase in discounts and allowances in the fourth quarter partly due to seasonality. Throughout 2018, we expect another couple of 100 basis points of pressure on discounts and allowances with the typical seasonality in the first and fourth quarters. Despite this dynamic, we expect roughly flat performance for our total MS revenues for 2018 when you include the impact of the OCREVUS royalty. This corresponds to a low single-digit contraction in our MS revenues, excluding the OCREVUS royalties. Additionally, we expect the potential inventory drawdown in Q1 2018 coming off the build of approximately $40 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. Let me now move to SPINRAZA. Global fourth quarter SPINRAZA revenues were $363 million. This included revenues of $218 million in the U.S., an increase of 10% versus the third quarter and $144 million outside the U.S. almost doubling quarter-over-quarter. For the full year 2017, worldwide SPINRAZA revenues were $884 million making it one of the most successful rare disease launches in history. This included $657 million in the U.S. and $227 million in sales outside the U.S. In the U.S., we now see over 275 sites that have submitted start forms, of which 215 have dosed at least one patient. We saw 33% increase in the number of patients on therapy in the U.S. as compared to the end of the third quarter. Similar to last quarter, revenues grew at a lower rate than patients due to loading dose dynamics with roughly half of revenues coming from new patients started dosing in the fourth quarter. In the U.S., we believe that new patient starts in the fourth quarter were weighted towards the beginning of the quarter as we saw an impact on demand during the holiday weeks. As a result, we expect a relatively lower contribution in Q1 2018 from these patients as they will have worked through many of their loading doses in the fourth quarter 2017. As expected, we are seeing an increasing contribution from maintenance doses as patients who started earlier in the year transitioned to dosing once every 4 months on a chronic basis. In the U.S., approximately 25% of SPINRAZA revenues in the fourth quarter were attributed to maintenance doses as compared to 10% in the third quarter. This correlates with the continued decline in the average doses per patient from 1.8 to 1.5 from the third quarter to the fourth quarter this year. We expect this dynamic to normalize over time with approximately 50% revenue being driven by maintenance doses by the end of 2018. In the fourth quarter and for the year, approximately 20% of U.S. SPINRAZA units were dispensed to our free drug program highlighting our goal that no patient will forego treatment because of financial limitation or an insurance denial in the U.S. We believe U.S. inventory levels for SPINRAZA were relatively flat in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. And in the U.S. we signed increased discounts allowance for SPINRAZA of a couple of 100 basis points to approximately 16%. We expect this rate to similarly increase over 2018 as we are seeing increasing utilization by Medicaid patients and purchasing from 340B hospitals. In the U.S. over 20% of SPINRAZA patients currently on therapy are over the age of 17 and increased from last quarter. A key strategic priority for us is to activate older patients through expanded patient and physician engagement. Outside the U.S. we more than doubled the number of commercial patients on therapy versus the prior quarter to 990 with approximately 35% of these patients transition from expanded access program or EAP. As a result, approximately 280 patients are still active in EAP as of the end of the fourth quarter. It’s important to note that those patients transitioned from this program may have already completed most of their loading doses. The largest contributors to the ex-U.S. SPINRAZA revenues in Q4 were Germany, Turkey and Japan, which accounted for over two-thirds of the ex-U.S. revenues. We continue to be very encouraged by the up-tick of SPINRAZA outside of the U.S. in terms of country approvals, speed of adoption and penetration levels. In 2018, we expect growth from SPINRAZA in the U.S., but expect a larger portion of the revenue growth to come from outside the U.S. Let me now move on to our biosimilars business, which generate $122 million in revenue this quarter more than doubling year-over-year. Full year biosimilar revenues were $380 million, growing nearly fourfold versus 2016. We anticipate that increased biosimilar competition will result in further price erosion, but we still expect double-digit increases in revenue in 2018. Turning to our anti-CD20 revenues, we recorded $415 million for the fourth quarter, an increase of 31% versus prior year primarily driven by the OCREVUS royalties. Full year anti-CD20 revenues were $1.6 billion, a 19% increase versus 2016. Within anti-CD20 revenues our estimate OCREVUS royalties were $77 million for the fourth quarter and $159 million for the full year. Although we do expect OCREVUS royalty continue to grow, we anticipate total anti-CD20 revenue growth to slow in 2018 versus what we saw in 2017 driven by the anniversarying on the OCREVUS launch in the second quarter of 2018 and the full year impact of a lower profit share percentage for RITUXAN. Total other revenues were $180 million for the fourth quarter, an increase of $129 million versus $51 million recognized in the fourth quarter of 2016, driven by greater contract manufacturing. Other revenues were $360 million for the full year, a 14% increase versus 2016. In 2018, we continue – we expect continued growth in contract manufacturing similar to the growth in full year 2017 but the exact amounts maybe lumpy over the quarters. Let me now turn to gross margin performance. Q4 gross margin was 85% which was negatively impacted by the disproportionate increase in contract manufacturing of biosimilars as well as a write-off of approximately $20 million of ZINBRYTA assets including inventory. Full year gross margin was 87%, slightly lower than in 2016. Q4 R&D expense was 18% of revenue or $588 million. This included $78 million of expense related to Alkermes and $25 million with Ionis due to recently announced business development transactions. Full year GAAP and non-GAAP R&D expense were both 18% of revenue or $2.3 billion. Q4 GAAP SG&A was 17% of revenue or $572 million. Q4 non-GAAP SG&A was also 17% of revenue at $554 million. Full year GAAP SG&A was 16% of sales or $1.9 billion and non-GAAP SG&A was 15% of revenue at $1.9 billion. Both GAAP and non-GAAP SG&A increase versus the prior quarter due to the timing of spend as well as certain investments across sales and marketing, worldwide medical and G&A. We do expect slight relief in core OpEx in the first quarter 2018 with the gradual decline as we move throughout the year. Other net expense, which includes interest, was $66 million in the fourth quarter which was impacted by a $17 million charge to markdown marketable securities as we prepare to move our offshore cash back to the U.S. Other net expense was $250 million for the full year. Our expectations for other net expense in 2018 are lower due to less debt outstanding and higher interest rates on cash balances. In the fourth quarter our GAAP tax rate was approximately 112% as we booked a GAAP charge of $1.2 billion related to the recently enacted U.S. corporate tax reform legislation. In Q4 our non-GAAP tax rate was approximately 29%. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates were impacted by $42 million and $50 million respectively related to the one-time ZINBRYTA charge. For the full year, our GAAP tax rate was approximately 48% and our non-GAAP Tax rate was roughly 25%. In 2018 we expect the underlying run rate for our tax rates to be – benefit by approximately 200 basis points as a result of U.S. tax reform with further benefit in 2019 and beyond. Our weighted average diluted share count was approximate 212 million for the quarter and 230 million for the full year which now brings us the diluted earnings per share. In the fourth quarter we booked the GAAP loss of $1.40 per share and non-GAAP earnings of $5.26 per share. For the full year, GAAP EPS was $11.92 and non-GAAP EPS with $21.81. GAAP EPS declined for Q4 2017 on the year-over-year basis driven by the $5.51 impact of tax reform, the $0.52 impact from our revised Neurimmune agreement, $0.34 impact for the Alkermes and Ionis deals and the $0.43 impact of the ZINBRYTA charge. Full year GAAP EPS decline versus 2016 due to the same factors as well as $1.08 impact from our deal with BMS and $0.48 impact from our deal with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. Non-GAAP EPS grew 4% for Q4 ‘17 despite the $0.34 impact from the Alkermes and Ionis deals and the 32% impact of ZINBRYTA charge. Non-GAAP EPS grew 8% for the full year 2017 versus prior year, despite the same factors as well as the $1.08 impact from our BMS. We ended the quarter with approximately $6.7 billion of cash and marketable securities. Let me now turn to our full year guidance for 2018. We expect revenues of approximately $12.7 billion to $13 billion which would represent year-over-year growth of 3.5% to 6%. We expect cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales to be consistent with our full-year 2017 cost of goods sold. We anticipate R&D expense between 16% and 17% of sales. Of note guidance does not include any impact from potential acquisitions or large business development transactions as both are hard to predict. We expect SG&A expense to be approximately 15% to 16% of revenues. From a tax perspective, our guidance takes into account the impact of U.S. tax reform and we anticipate our GAAP tax rate for 2018 to be between 23.5% to 24.5% and our non-GAAP tax rate to be between 22.5% and 23.5%. We anticipate full year 2018 GAAP EPS results of $22.20 to $23.20 representing growth of 83% to 91% and non-GAAP EPS to be between $24.20 and $25.20 representing growth of 11% to 16%. From a quarterly perspective we expect non-GAAP EPS growth on year-over-year basis to be stronger in Q2 ‘18 and Q4 ‘18 due to the impact of business development events in 2017 and the factors described above. We believe the midpoint of the guidance ranges we have provided represents a reasonable base case. I will now turn the call over to Michel for his closing comments.