Paul Herendeen
Analyst · J.P. Morgan
Thanks, Joe. The story of Q2 2020 versus Q2 of 2019 comes down to one word, and that's COVID. Please turn to slide 8. COVID was the primary driver in substantially reduced revenue across all of our business units. Overall, organic revenue declined 21%. All four segments declined, led by B&L International, down 24%; then Salix, down 21%; then diversified, down 17%; and finally, Ortho Derm with the smallest decline relative to Q2 of 2019, it was down 5%. Within B&L International, as expected, Global Surgical suffered the greatest impact from COVID as non-essential surgeries essentially stopped in many markets. Global Surgical was down 48% overall. It was down 49% outside the United States and down 44% in the US. We'd expected that the O-US surgical markets would begin to improve as the second quarter played out, and they did, but at a slow pace. Meanwhile, in the US, we saw quite a deep dip and then a pronounced recovery with US surgical revenue in the month of June down only 10% versus June of 2019. I'll talk a bit more about the pace of recovery of various businesses and geographies when I get to guidance. Ophtho Rx was down 42%, not surprising due to the weighting of the products in this business that are used pre and post eye surgery. 60% of Ophtho Rx is in the US. And as we saw in the surgical business, the US part of the Ophtho Rx recovered nicely off of the floor that we saw in April. Global Vision Care on an organic basis was down 37%, down 43% in the US and 34%. O-US. Outside the US, we had thought that Vision Care would show more life as social restrictions were eased. However, in the Asia Pacific region, which represents just less than 50% of our global Vision Care business, there have been some resurgences of COVID and the governments there have been quick to reimplement significant restrictions, albeit on a local level. More importantly, we are seeing that consumers in Asia Pac and, to some extent, in Europe remain reluctant to go out to retail stores, are staying home more and not wearing their contact lenses while at home. Another overlay is that many of these economies are under pressure and consumers are constraining spending. That's all O-US. US Vision Care fell to a very low level in April and then snapped back in June. Looking ahead, while there were and are plenty of headwinds in the US Vision Care business, we carried a bit of momentum into Q3 associated with the buzz surrounding the launch of our daily silicon hydro gel lens – that's INFUSE – and by eyecare professionals' acceptance of virtual engagement with BHC sales reps. We're pretty proud of this. We were early in the process of finding ways to remain engaged with ECPs during the depths of the pandemic, and we believe that those efforts strengthened our US Vision Care teams' relationships with ECPs. B&L Consumer was down 11% on an organic basis, down 15% outside the United States and only down 4% in the US. In the US, we did see some pantry loading in Q1. So, that took a little off the top of Q2 revenues. On a consumption basis, both LUMIFY and PreserVision grew versus Q2 of 2019. The O-US consumer business correlated with the softness we saw in our O-US Vision Care business in our renu and Biotrue solutions, which are big parts of O-US consumer, lost quite a bit as they followed the lower utilization of contacts that I just spoke of. Finally, International Pharma. As expected, this was more resilient than other parts of our company, and was "only" down 7% on a constant currency basis. Even within that, there was high variability as we had strength in Latin America and Africa/Middle East, but that was offset by weakness in Canada, Western Europe and Eastern Europe. Moving on, Salix was down 21%. XIFAXAN was down 12% as volume declines overwhelmed the impact of improved net realized pricing. Volume was down primarily due to – this is for XIFAXAN now, was down primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, including – but also included reduced channel inventories relative to the prior-year quarter at the retail level, not the wholesale level. In recent weeks, XIFAXAN Rx trajectories have been improving as GI offices reopen and our Salix sales teams are able to complete more face to face calls. COVID took the top off of TRULANCE's terrific growth trajectory. And even still, Rxs in Q2 of 2020 were up 50% versus Q2 of 2019. Even with COVID, TRULANCE is emerging as a great storyline for us. This was an opportunistic acquisition orchestrated by our colleague, Scott Hirsch, and then our Salix team is leveraging our strong position in the GI space to gain share at a great clip in the competitive IBS-C category. TRULANCE year-over-year revenue was flat as we had to take reserves for additional rebates in conjunction with some recent managed care wins for TRULANCE, but the improved access should position TRULANCE to continue an impressive growth trajectory. A few other items of note in Salix. On the good side, RELISTOR revenue was up 8% versus Q2 of 2019. Going the other way, the Apriso was a major growth drag. It was down $33 million versus Q2 of 2019. And Glumetza was down $25 million or about 60% on a huge volume uptick, but at very, very low realized net pricing. I think we foreshadowed that pretty well for you. The Ortho Derm segment was off 5% with medical derm down 4% and Solta down 7%. In med derm. volumes fell off dramatically as derm offices were among the earliest to close down and slowest to ramp back up. We did benefit in the quarter from dramatically improved gross to nets for ELIDEL and SILIQ. While Solta was down 7%, the Thermage FLX platform continued to deliver growth, although the pace of growth was clearly slowed by COVID. Finally, our diversified segment was down 17%. The neuro business was off 13%. Hidden in there was continued solid performance of WELLBUTRIN and APLENZIN which together accounted for about 55% of neuro's revenues. We expected these brands to be resilient in the COVID world, and they were, with WELLBUTRIN growing 7% and APLENZIN plus 10%. The rest of the neuro story is around LOEs. That's Cuprimine, Isuprel, Mephyton, Xenazine and Syprine. Generics was off 11%, mainly due to the impact of COVID-19 and dentistry was off 69% as dentist office were among the first to close. So, total revenue was down 21% organically. We realized a small increase in net pricing relative to Q2 of 2019, and that was offset by the dramatic volume declines driven by COVID. Turning to slide 9 and I'll walk down the P&L. Gross margin was unfavorable in Q2 of 2019 by some 230 basis points due to unfavorable variances triggered by COVID-related volume reductions. This is something that will persist throughout 2020. Within operating expenses, SG&A were favorable by some $137 million versus Q2 of 2019, with a good chunk coming from selling, advertising and promotion. Obviously, in a shutdown situation, we held back on promotional programs, with a few exceptions for high value initiatives that were opportunistic on our part. Selling, advertising promotion went down $123 million. Part of that was reduced sales incentive comp and distribution costs, both of which are down based on lower revenues. We also saw lower T&E with fewer sales reps actually in the field. G&A was down modestly versus Q2 of 2019 due to lesser outside services. And R&D was down $9 million due to lower project spend as some clinical activities were forced to pause. So, adjusted EBITDA was down $258 million and here's a shorthand way of how you could think about that. Reported revenue was down $488 million. COVID accounted for roughly $500 million of decline. LOEs accounted for another $78 million. And FX, another $27 million. So, buried in there, we had some underlying growth of our non-LOE assets of some $117 million, but it was just obscured. Gross margin, as I said, declined 230 basis points. So, gross profit declined some $350 million due to the revenue decline and another $40 million due to the decline in gross margin. The favorable OpEx variance of $137 million offset a bit of the reduced gross profit, but adjusted EBITDA, as I said, was down $258 million versus Q2 of 2019. Turn to slide 10, the cash flow summary. In the quarter, we generated $200 million of cash from operations. Importantly, we remain on track to generate roughly $1 billion of cash from operations in 2020. Turn to slide 11, the balance sheet summary. We changed the presentation here to split out secured and unsecured debt. The takeaway here is that we continue to enjoy excellent liquidity. Our revolver was undrawn at the quarter close. And as you saw on the prior slide, we generated cash from operating activities in a very challenging quarter. We have a bit of senior secured capacity to work with, if needed, but if you turn to slide 12, we don't have any debt maturities or mandatory amortization until 2023. So, we don't really have any pressing needs on the financing front right now. A few other factoids of note. 80% of our debt is fixed rate and our average cost of borrowing is 5.95%. Now, I know that rounds to 6, but it is pretty remarkable for a company as levered as we are. On to the guidance slide on slide 14. Before I get into the changes, I think it's worth a minute to talk about how we set guidance back in May. We modeled scenarios by type of revenue and by geography, including ranges of assumptions around the time of easing of social restrictions and then the shape of the recovery of our various revenue streams. Those scenarios point to a wide range of outcomes. 90 days later, the pace of recovery has generally trended to the lower part of the range of our expectations from back in May. Interestingly, the pace in certain of our US businesses has been on the stronger side. However, two regions in particular, Asia Pac and Western Europe, while recovering, are recovering more slowly. Our thesis back in May was that the markets that saw the earliest onset of COVID would be the first to begin to recover and move back towards pre-COVID levels. Now, as I said, certain of the US businesses – that's Vision Care, Surgical and Ophtho Rx – snapped back and they ended up in the upper end of our forecasted ranges back in May. Salix, meanwhile, is tracking closer to the midpoint of our prior expectations, being May. Outside the US, the shape of COVID recovery, and especially in Asia Pac and parts of Europe, are trending near the low end of the range of our May expectations. So, net-net, the high end of our May guidance range for revenue was no longer in play. And we now expect our full year revenue to be in the lower half of the guidance range that we communicated back in May. Specifically, the revised ranges between $7.8 billion and $8 billion. Similarly, we reduced the top end of our guidance for adjusted EBITDA with the new range being between $3.15 billion and $3.30 billion. We continue to believe that Q2 will be the quarter most impacted by COVID. Relative to what we thought back in May, we now believe that Q3 and Q4 will be more impacted relative to what we thought back in May. And it appears it will take a bit longer to get back to pre-COVID levels. That's what takes the top off of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. Importantly, and as you'll hear in Joe's remarks, in each of our businesses, we believe we can continue to hold or grow share in segments that are currently depressed by COVID, so that when the COVID impacts subside, our franchises are positioned to return to their pre COVID levels and then to grow from there. I mentioned in the discussion of Q2 results, our gross margin was down due to COVID driven impacts on manufacturing variances. That situation is expected to persist through the balance of the year and we've adjusted our guidance for gross margin, down from roughly 73% to roughly 72%. A quick word about operating expenses. We've taken steps to reduce operating expenses to both protect operating profit and to preserve cash as we work our way through this situation. At this point, our SG&A guidance is some $300 million less than what we were planning back in February. Turn to slide 15, the guidance bridge. Just two things to point out in this slide. Currency moved in our favor since May, 100 million at revenue and about $30 million at adjusted EBITDA. Second, and for the avoidance of doubt, the roughly $100 million reduction in SG&A in the guidance bridge relative to our May guidance – that's relative to our May guidance. And as I mentioned, in total, from the beginning of the year, we've reduced our full year expected SG&A by some $300 million. One last thing. I'm really excited to talk about our intention to split into two businesses. Yeah, we'll be busy laying the groundwork to facilitate the spin of B&L and I look forward to our discussions regarding the exciting prospects for both companies. Lots more details on that to follow. That's it for me. Back to you, Joe.