Earnings Labs

B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 27, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the B&G Foods Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. Today’s call is being recorded. You can access detailed financial information on the quarter and the full year in the company’s earnings release issued today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of bgfoods.com. Before the company begins its formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of the discussion today includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer you to the company’s most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings for a more-detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company’s future operating results and financial condition. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The company will also be making references on today’s call to the non-GAAP financial measures, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, diluted earnings per share, adjusted diluted earnings per share and base business net sales. Reconciliations of these financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today’s earnings release. Bob Cantwell, the company’s current President and Chief Executive Officer will begin the call with opening remarks. Bruce Wacha, the company’s Chief Financial Officer will then discuss the company’s financial results for the quarter, as well it’s guidance for 2019. After that, Ken Romanzi, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, effective April of this year, will discuss various factors that affected the company’s results, selected business highlights and his thoughts concerning the outlook for 2019 and beyond. I would like to turn the conference over to Bob.

Bob Cantwell

Management

Good afternoon, thank you for joining us today. Believe it or not, today is my 82nd consecutive earnings call with B&G Foods dating back to our initial bond offering in 1997. As some of you know, I joined B&G Foods 35 years ago. Life was a lot simpler back then. We were basically a standalone pickle and pepper company owned by Sara Lee. Overtime, our ownership changed several times and we ultimately were required by the private equity firm Bruckman, Rosser, Sherrill and Company or BRS. And then life changed again when we went public in 2004. We have grown tremendously over my time at B&G Foods and since the IPO, building through acquisitions and diverse portfolio of nearly 50 brands. We increased our net sales and adjusted EBITDA from $374.8 million and $67.7 million at the time of the IPO to $1.7 billion and $314.2 million today. Our market cap and enterprise value were $245.5 million and $625.5 million when we went public, compared to $1.7 billion and $3.3 billion today. We have also paid almost $830 million in dividends to shareholders drawing our time as a public company. While there had been challenges over time, we have remained committed to our core financial principles of generating shareholder returns through creative M&A and unyielding focus on cash flows and a steady return of cash to our shareholders in the form of dividends. As we announced in late July – in January, I will be retiring from my role as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of B&G Foods in early April. In accordance with a succession plan established in 2017, B&G Foods’ Board of Directors has appointed Ken Romanzi as my successor. We have been firmly committed to a smooth transition and for all intents and purposes, Ken has been effectively in charge of B&G Foods sales, marketing and operations since late 2017. So in large part the transition is already complete. And while I’ll be retiring as CEO, I expect to remain actively involved at the company, both as a shareholder and in an advisory role on M&A and corporate finance transactions. I know that the company remains in good hands with its current management team and I look forward to watching the company continue to grow for years to come. I now would like to turn the call over to Bruce, and then to Ken, who will also lead the Q&A portion of the call.

Bruce Wacha

Management

Good afternoon. Bob, thank you for your generous introduction for hiring and mentoring me and for all that you’ve done to build this organization during your tenure. While there are many things that we did well in 2018, we missed on the margin side, which unfortunately depressed our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS; two very important measures of our performance. Our net sales came in as expected. We grow our base business to healthy 1.6% for the quarter and nearly 1% for the year, despite a very challenging top line environment for our industry. We had a very strong year for cash generation generating more than $200 million in net cash provided by operating activities for the year. We nailed our inventory reduction plan target, reducing inventory by more than $100 million during the year from approximately $502 million at the beginning of the year to approximately $401 million today. We also reduced our long-term debt by almost $600 million for the year from a little bit of $2.2 billion at the start of the year to $1.6 billion today. In addition to our cash flow, our debt pay down efforts, we’re also helped in large part by the sale of Pirate Brands during the year. As a reminder, this is a brand that we acquired in 2013 for $195 million and then sold in 2018 for $420 million, more than double the price we paid for the brand five years ago. In 2018, we generated company record net sales of $1.7 billion, company record EBITDA of $397.4 million and diluted earnings per share of $2.60. After adjusting for certain items affecting comparability described in our earnings release, our adjusted EBITDA was $314.2 million and our adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.85. While we are disappointed with these numbers,…

Ken Romanzi

Management

Thank you, Bruce. And Bob, thank you for your terrific leadership and all the wonderful things you’ve done for B&G Foods over the past 35 years. And thank you so much for your confidence in me to take the reins of this great company you’ve built. You’ve been a terrific partner and mentor to me as I assimilated into B&G Foods and I’m excited for you to continue to advise us on M&A and capital market activity. I’m truly honored to take the helm as CEO of B&G Foods. I was so very excited to come here when I joined a little over a year ago because of the company’s well known acquisition growth strategy, its best-in-class adjusted EBITDA margin profile and its reputation as a lean operator. And I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the extent of its can-do culture and the dedication of our employees to make a difference and drive real value for our shareholders. I am committed to nurse with good about B&G Foods and continue a successful strategy to build shareholder value. We live in a challenge type of food companies, but I’m confident B&G Foods is up to the task of succeeding in this environment. Simply put, we are very disappointed in our 2018 results. We had a great year on many fronts highlighted by the reawakening of Green Giant and the entire frozen vegetable category with industry leading innovation, driving solid core brand sales and consumption growth, initiating a multi-year cost savings program, realizing significant value creation with the sale of Pirate’s Booty and generating a lot of cash. But, expectations are expectations. Our earnings results this past year were far from our expectations due to lower than expected margins. We were not able to overcome the resurgence and costs inflation across many input…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Cornell Burnette with Citi Research. Please go ahead.

Cornell Burnette

Analyst

Thanks a lot. Good evening, everyone. Just wanted to jump in here and just get a little insight on the fourth quarter. It seems kind of similar to last year, kind of death by a thousand cuts when you look at the different pieces that went against you and really drove the wide delta and in terms of where EBITDA was supposed to be. And I just wanted to know, when you look back and look at this post mortem, is it perhaps somewhere down the line where you thought maybe just you got a little bit ahead of your skis in terms of the way the guidance was laid out for the year. And then secondly, when you talk about kind of having some negative impacts for mix; where the sales of the canned Green Giant products negative margin, and that’s what happened, or is it just that those sales kind of did a little bit better than what you expected, but also when I look at the rest of the base, perhaps there wasn’t as much growth as you thought the rest of the base could have achieved when you went into the quarter?

Bruce Wacha

Management

Yes. So, first on your Green Giant question, I think that’s the right answer. They’re profitable sales. The issue is we hit kind of the low end of our target for net sales in the fourth quarter. And unfortunately, the way that worked is we hit it with the Green Giant can business as opposed to our higher margin base core B&G brands that had higher margins. Had we done that, we would’ve had a couple extra million dollars of EBITDA for the quarter, or have we gotten all of them, the fire on all cylinders, that would’ve been much better. I think – and answer your first question, really our fourth quarter this year look a lot like the fourth quarter last year with the exception of Pirates coming out. So if we were off $10 million, a little bit more than $7 million of that was Pirates. And the rest was really similar to the story that we saw a year, whereas we’ve said, just nickels and dimes that came off and unfortunately added up. That is probably the fourth quarter that people should expect from a cadence in terms of fourth quarter as a lower margin quarter. We did think we were going to do better. We outlined earlier in the call some of those areas in terms of expecting to get better pricing. We held the line at freight, but we were hoping to do a little bit better than that. We were hit with some of the tariffs that came through on the procurement side and these have limited the upside, but as far as the stability of the business, pretty flat to last year, after removing Pirates and then just a couple of million dollars shortfall after that.

Cornell Burnette

Analyst

And then on the pricing side and a part of what you’ve kind of outlined here was that, hey, list prices were fine, but you didn’t do so well on the promoted side. Kind of when you go forward and you look at the 2019, kind of, how do you guard against that and what type of risks does that pose to your pricing guidance, because you have more pricing coming along the way in 2019? And just wonder if you kind of set up to see something similar happen where maybe it doesn’t come through the way you would’ve anticipated. So what’s different in 2019 versus 2018?

Ken Romanzi

Management

Yes. Hi, this is Ken. A couple of points. Number one, the reason why we felt we could get $10 million in the fourth quarter, we were starting to see traction on trade promotion and savings earlier in the year as well as list price. So we felt we can continue that. We didn’t see the continued trade. So as you might expect, there’s a lot variability in trying to get trade promotion savings. For 2019, in order not to repeat that, as I mentioned, we’re saying we’re going to get in pricing is all do to list. We are taking trade promotion actions, but the benefits we think we can get there, we don’t even have in our projection. So we’re going to rely on the list to deliver on our financials and we’re going to continue to try to get more efficient in trade. So, for instance, in this past second quarter, we saw some nice pricing on trade promotion reduction. We just weren’t able to replicate in the fourth quarter. So until we can more replicate reliable savings in trade, we’re not going to put it into our projections.

Cornell Burnette

Analyst

Okay, thank you. I’ll pass it along.

Ken Romanzi

Management

And we’re adding more business, like for instance, this past year we didn’t take pricing off Back to Nature and spices and we aren’t going to do that this year. And we didn’t take pricing in Canada and we’re going to do that. So we’re taking more or less than we even did last year because – against more business.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question from Karru Martinson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Karru Martinson

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good Evening. Bob, I wish you well on your transition. It’s been a long time covering you guys with you in the role there. I just wanted to ask about the promotions and the pricing actions. Was this in response to a competitive landscape that changed or was there just pushback from the retailers?

Bob Cantwell

Management

It’s not necessarily pushback from the retailers. When you reduce trade promotion, you’re really saying how much volume I really going to sell on deal and at what rate. And so while we change rates, is always an estimate as to how much volume you’re going to sell it full price versus how much volume you’re going to sell on deal. We just sold a lot more volume on deal than what we projected. So as I said, until we get – really get a more reliable model, this is the first time we’re really trying to – as a company, we’re really trying to dive in the trade. We know that there are efficiencies there. We started to experience some, which is what gave us – we’re bullish in the fourth quarter after what we saw earlier in the year, but it proved elusive to us. So we’re going to continue with a plan to find the productivity in trade, but again, we’re not going to rely on it until we can prove it and see it in the bottom line results.

Karru Martinson

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. And how do you feel that the environment is out there in terms of trying to pass through some of this inflation that we’re seeing?

Ken Romanzi

Management

Pricing is never easy, but we see it this year a little bit easier for us because we were – we kind of lead with our chin last year. We were amongst the first or maybe even a first food company to announce as we got on it very early. We’re now in amongst of everybody, just about everybody talking about pricing. And so it’s never easy, but we’ve got a lot of companies this year and because the cost inputs are up across the Board, where last year early in the year, mostly it was freight. Now everybody’s seeing it across all the inputs, including our retail partners who see it in their private label goods because it’s cardboard and it’s packaging material and it’s steel and it’s all of those costs inputs. So everybody’s experience it, including our retailers with our own brands.

Karru Martinson

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then just lastly on the M&A front, and certainly there’s been a lot of expected divestures coming from some of the big guys. You’ve talked about wanting to be accretive, but is there a thought process as to the size and where you guys would be willing to take leverage to secure some of these assets?

Bob Cantwell

Management

So we’re typically in that 4.5x to 5x target net debt to EBITDA. There have been instances when we’ve been willing to go higher for the right deal, but it’s got to be the right deal. And so we’re going to continue to be opportunistic and look. We’re encouraged by the stories of rumor divestitures and we’re out there looking.

Karru Martinson

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, guys.

Ken Romanzi

Management

But we’re also going to continue to be very disciplined in what valuation. So some of the things we hear out there are, whether they evaluate – valuation expectations will be there because this company, and I I’ll be committed to that. This company is very committed for us to be a creative and for us not to overpay for businesses.

Bob Cantwell

Management

At the end of the day, the math has to work and it’s got to be cash flow accretive and that’s how we’ve always run the business.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Brian Hunt with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Dave Cook

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. It’s Dave Cook on for Brian. Just wanting to touch on the promotional trade support, again. I guess any fear that you have that this is more indicative of a structural change in the packaged food environment where you have to promote these brands more heavily to compete with private label and nichier brands or just kind of too early to tell at this point?

Bob Cantwell

Management

The one thing, maybe Ken can talk a little bit more big picture, but just to remind people, last year at this point in time we told the investment community we were going to raise price. There was some skepticism because nobody had really raised price in five, seven years. We’ve benefited from price increases of about $10 million, $12 million in 2018. So I don’t know that I’d say there was a structural issue that’s preventing us from doing so we just didn’t get as much as we wanted to.

Ken Romanzi

Management

Yes. And I would say to add to that, a list price increase – our customers put us through a lot of phases to prove that we deserve that price increase by showing a breakdown of what our cost structure is and we go through a tremendous amount of paperwork and a tremendous amount of justification. So while there’s so much work to be done, we prove it out because it’s pretty simple, show the cost input inflations. So it’s relatively not easy, but it’s relatively simple to understand a list price increase. Trade promotion, like I said before, it’s much more of a forecasting exercises of how much am I going to pay or how much am I going to sell at full price versus promoted price, and how much does the customer buy on promotion. That gets much more delicate in terms of being able to forecast that. And like I said before, we were able to garner savings on reducing some very heavy trade deals we were doing on a few of our brands and we garnered the savings and we tried to do that again in the fourth quarter. And if the customers support promotion better than you think they would, you’re going to sell a lot more on promotion. So promotion is almost easier to adjust because, if you don’t want the hot price point and you don’t want the secondary display in the front page ad because you think it’s too costly, you can give that up. And while the retailer won’t be tremendously happy, it’s not like they can force you to do a promotion. The problem is it’s harder to forecast almost than list price increases because we have very good Walt Disney models to tell us what’s going to happen on the list. What we can’t find out is how much a customer going to buy on promotion versus non-promotion in the midst of changing a promotional strategy or reducing promotional allowances.

Ken Romanzi

Management

I can reduce promotional allowances by 10%, but if they buy 30% more on deal, that could almost wipe out that promotional allowance savings. So it’s more of a forecasting sight that quite frankly we as a company has to get better at because, again, it’s my first time, we’re really trying to make significant savings on a pretty big line item, a trade promotion is a big part of our pricing model.

Dave Cook

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then the turnaround in Green Giant shelf stable. I guess is that, that’s mostly innovation or easy comparisons or what – I guess, what do you think that’s driving that?

Bob Cantwell

Management

Simple answer on Green Giant is that we overlapped our loss of distribution on Walmart. But as we mentioned in previous calls, outside of Walmart consumption on Green Giant cans was basically up. Partly because we believe there’s still some brand value in Green Giant, so people couldn’t find it at Walmart they found it someplace else and we were effective in our promotional plans with our retailers. So our business was up outside of Walmart. And so when we started to overlap our loss in Walmart distribution, the business grew and we expect our can business to grow this year since we’re not overlapping any losses, impact our gaining distribution in some channels on our Green Giant can business. Now that’s a double-edged sword because that is a lower margin business, but it’s still a positive margin and we just got to forecast the mix right in terms of growing that business. So we expect Green Giant is going to grow nicely in 2019 on both the frozen and the shelf stable side, and it’s all through distribution on shelf stable, not innovation.

Dave Cook

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then lastly on acquisitions. I guess with everything you guys have on your plate, leadership changes, aggressive cost savings you’re rolling out. Is it fair to assume you’re looking more heavily at smaller acquisitions or are you equally looking at small versus large and large acquisitions?

Bruce Wacha

Management

I would say we’re looking and math has to work.

Dave Cook

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much.

Ken Romanzi

Management

Yes. Our leadership changes are not going to slow that down. We have people that are – one person’s really new, other people who are already in existence and we have a good stable people that that are existing and worked on the acquisition. So from a leadership standpoint, we’ve already had people involved that looking at acquisitions who are on the – who are amongst the new leadership team that I outlined earlier.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from William Reuter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

William Reuter

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi. Firstly, you guys have talked about the second quarter price increases that should help your margins. When you’ve talked to your customers about those, what have they talked to you about? Some of your competitors in terms of them pushing through price increases, do you think that’s going to be a consistent message amongst your competitors as well?

Ken Romanzi

Management

Without getting into specific conversations with customers I think you can follow other public companies, for example, what’s out there in the press. And I think that majority is packaged food companies and household personal care companies, people who are shipping and selling things in grocery stores. Most people are talking about price increases.

William Reuter

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then – so it sounds like these strong sales of the Green Giant can products really helped your fourth quarter sales, but that would mean I guess that other product sales were a little bit weaker. I guess, I’m not sure if I heard in the prepared remarks to what do you attribute the weakness in some of those higher margin products?

Ken Romanzi

Management

I don’t know, I’d say that it’s weakness, again, we grew sales, we grew our base business. We just didn’t get the incremental growth over and above. So when you think about our base business fourth quarter and full year, we were up 1.5 and 1. So good solid performance, we just didn’t get the incremental growth that we were hoping for.

William Reuter

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then just lastly from me. As you’ve talked to, I guess some e-commerce customers, I would imagine that will continue to try and work selling some of your products. How do you think that’s going to evolve over the next, let’s say, year or two years in terms of them increasing your product sales?

Bob Cantwell

Management

I think it’s going to take time. We’re certainly focused on e-commerce. It’s less than a couple percent of business for most people that do things like we do. It’s going to grow over time and our job is to continue to grow our position as well.

Ken Romanzi

Management

And one thing I’d add is that, we work very closely with some of the big mainline retailers who actually – they are offering a very good solution. I mean, all you have to do is turn on the TV and see it – all that great advertising from Walmart in terms of go online and pick up, and it’s not just all about delivery and they provide the full shopping basket solution. So, we’ll continue to work with the big player and Amazon, but we’re also continuing to work with some of the very large retailers like Walmart and Kroger on their online solutions. It’s still a very small piece and we’re playing a little bit of catch up on that in terms of getting all of our digital assets ready to do business with them and are committed to doing that in a much more aggressive way so that we’re – when it does, when the full shopping basket does take off online, we’re going to be right there available with the key players in the business.

William Reuter

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Great. That’s all from me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Bank of Montreal.

Well, good afternoon, everyone.

Bob Cantwell

Management

Hey, Ken.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Bank of Montreal.

Bob, I wish you well and congrats on your semi-retirement, I guess.

Bob Cantwell

Management

Thanks.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Bank of Montreal.

When I think about the cost savings, Ken, it looks like your big initiative to start off is let’s rework the cost structure of B&G Foods. When you think about doing all these project, and I have to go through the transcript again, but when I go through all this, how did they change the growth algorithm beyond 2019 and is this just to offset the challenges or is there a business case to say, hey look, our growth algorithm previously was muted and we can actually now accelerate that?

Bob Cantwell

Management

Well, right now – so we’re pretty consistent with what we’ve been saying in terms of our achievement of top line growth. If look at the past companies value creation has come from double digit top line and bottom line growth through a creative acquisitions and not trying to overreach on a base business. So modest top line growth, the cost savings, you’re exactly right. We’re not, we’ve ramped up cost savings because right now we just have to input, inflations back in food there was deflation for many years, both in terms of costs as well as pricing at the retail level. So inflations back, but it’s never a bad idea to reduce our cost structure because when inflations gets under control, we’ll now have more efficient cost structure where we can work on improving our margin. So in the short term, we’re doing all of this to just maintain our margins in the longer term we hope to improve our margins and again we have a multi-year effort and we’ll be sharing with more ideas of what we’re going to be implementing down the road in terms of asset rationalization and some of the more heavy lifting cost savings ideas they just take longer to get at.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Bank of Montreal.

My second question is, how do you justify making an acquisition when you’re stopped it, at these levels when I would argue that we purchasing your status. How do you get a return even close to what you would believe that your stock would get by buying back stock? And it doesn’t seem like a close second year.

Bob Cantwell

Management

So I think the answer is, we’re looking at both, we have a share buyback authorization in place. We’ve bought shares, we’ll we could during open windows. And we’re also continuing to look at M&A and so I get the point from a value creation and accretion and share buy backs that is part of it. We’re also focused on growing the business. We’re not going to stretch doing an acquisition. It doesn’t make sense, but if there’s an opportunity to buy something that does make sense, we will also take that into consideration.

Ken Zaslow

Analyst · Bank of Montreal.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Michael Gallo with C.L. King. Please go ahead.

Michael Gallo

Analyst · C.L. King. Please go ahead.

Hi, good after noon. Bigger picture question. Ken. When you look at your overall portfolio, obviously you had the opportunity to the best Pirate at a very good price this year. Your small brands have clearly a underperformed and there’s quite a few of them. Is there a bucket of brands that you look at that perhaps used to make sense in the portfolio? Don’t make sense in the portfolio today where you might think about the divestiture or are you 100% happy with all the brands that you have? And you’ll just kind of continue to bolt out and move along. Thanks.

Ken Romanzi

Management

Yes. I mean, when you look into our brands, there was nothing for sale. But some like Pirates will sell either. But if someone wants to come and pay us 19 times earnings, we’re ready to listen. So, in some of these brands, we don’t want to be decretive by selling a brand below what we’re trading at. So, we have to be very careful about selling off EBITDA. And so if someone’s willing to pay for that, we’ll do it. But that’s why we don’t have outsize growth. We have fantastic Green Giant. We believe its upside in Victoria. We believe its upside and McCann’s and Back to Nature. But there are some brands that aren’t in growth categories and that’s why we have a very modest 0% to 2% growth, our algorithm on the top line. So we don’t like, and we’ve been through this with a board, we had a strategic planning session and me being new, they wanted to really test my conviction on how – where are we going to take the portfolio and it’s like we have to manage this portfolio amongst a bunch of several brands that’ll grow nicely like Green Giant. Many brands will become stable and there’ll be some declining brands and it’s a portfolio for us to manage forward in our long term 0% to 2% algorithm.

Michael Gallo

Analyst · C.L. King. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Carla Casella with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Carla Casella

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, most of my questions have been answered. But just to clarify, on your cost savings, the $15 million to $20 million, is that what should fall to the bottom line this year or that you should have an a run rate basis when you, by the time you finished the year?

Bob Cantwell

Management

So that’s what we’re planning on is actually hitting this year again, offsetting a lot of inflationary pressures. That’s just this year and it builds from there, because those are an annual, because there are many programs implemented throughout the year. So they’re not full year, they’re not all 12 months savings.

Carla Casella

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Okay. And is that the net number, net of the increased cost?

Bob Cantwell

Management

Sorry. So the way you should look at is, we’ve outlined with the benefit for pricing should be this year. What’s the cost savings should be this year. We also outlined where we see inflationary pressure both in freight as well as in our input costs. Then some of that should take us to the 305 to 320 in adjusted EBITDA guidance that we provided. Does that make sense?

Carla Casella

Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, it does. That’s great. And all my questions were answered. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Eric Larson with Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Yes, good afternoon everyone and good luck to you, Bob. We’ve both been together a long time. So my first question here is, when you look at the fourth quarter you talk about a $10 million to $12 million benefit from pricing. I don’t think that’s a net – I don’t think that’s a net benefit. So when I look at the fourth quarter, particularly on the promotion side, it looks like he went in to the quarter with a little bit too much ease. When the bills started coming in, your checkbook was empty, you had to pay him, you didn’t get the lift on some of the brands that you’ve probably been promoted which is interesting. But I guess the question here is – this sounds like it’s this piece of it is more of a self-inflicted problem…

Ken Romanzi

Management

Eric, I’m going to just cut you off for one second. So maybe we were here earlier. We got to benefit from pricing, combination of lists and promotion in the fourth quarter, just a little bit over $2 million. We anticipated and where we missed on our forecast, we had hoped that that benefit was going to be $10 million. So we missed our forecast by $8 million, but we actually benefited from a pricing all in up $2 million. Okay, does that makes sense.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Yes. Okay. So then the next question is, as Ken was referring to earlier that promotion is – it’s a, forecasting issue and it generally requires kind of annual planning and you announced [indiscernible] advancing you work through it on a annualized basis. So why is this – how could, this happen again in 2019? I mean, what are the procedures you have put in place so that you don’t run your promotion number’s too high, I guess is the best way, right?

Ken Romanzi

Management

Yes. So when you think about it, when we laid out our pricing plan last year, we anticipated like $15 million to $20 million benefit. We got $12 million of that. As the year rolls along, we felt pretty good and we thought we were going to come out better in the fourth quarter and so we missed on that. What can explain earlier is as we were going through our budget process for 2019, we have a price plan that is much more heavily benefit or based on list price increases. And what we’re looking at from a trade promotional spend basis is actually not in that budgeted number. So it will be a list of heavy plan as opposed to a combo plan. To avoid that risk that you’re referring to. So I guess I say we hear you we thought through that and that’s the plan that we created.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Okay. So the final question is, let’s talk the cash flow build for a second. Again, you’ve got $125 million commitment and annually to your dividend last year. You benefited from a lot of inventory reduction. What should be the free cash flow this year right now again, walk through it for me because there were a lot of issues at hand when you were going through your prepared comments, and your ability to really pay the dividend.

Bob Cantwell

Management

Yes. So we should benefit this year from about $180 million of excess cash before dividends with $125 million dividend payments.

Eric Larson

Analyst · Buckingham Research Group. Please go ahead.

Okay. I’ll take that offline. We’ll just figure out how – I’ll get to the details of that later offline. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Andrew Lasar with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Andrew Lasar

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon everybody. Ken, let me start with, as CEO elect when we think you’ve got to balance – a number of actions here. One is of course the sense of urgency around a lot of the things that you discussed today on pricing, cost structure and such as well. Some senior management changes. With putting out, I would think some goals for the year that you’ll be kind of on the hook for if you will, that are achievable, right? You’re reasonable and but achievable. And when – where you built in some flexibility, because the last couple of years we’ve seen that, as the years gone on, any number of things have happened, whether it’s things outside your control or within and haven’t played out the way you wanted. Is that a right way to think about? And if it is, can you take us through a little bit around, maybe it’s a bridge to from 2018 to 2019 or how you think you’re building in that sort of flexibility to be able to have a – better than average line of sight to be EBITDA sort of range that you’re talking about for 2019. Okay.

Ken Romanzi

Management

Well we’ll try not to do is put – bake in everything we feel we can achieve. I think we baked in a lot in the past. So, like I said, on pricing, we’re not taking in anything from trade promotion savings and we feel we can get it some, but we’re not baking that in, on cost savings, we are actually going after more than what we shared. So our internal numbers wouldn’t show up more than that, but in some of these things, so there’s slippage. So we tried to give a slip adjusted number. So those are really the two areas, if I can’t say that as a huge upside beyond the range we shared on sales and more sales doesn’t combat inflation. So that’s why we want to grow the business and we’re going to grow, but that’s not going to solve our inflation, which is why, pricing trade promotion and cost savings are the other two big buckets and three when you would breakout pricing between lists and trade promotion. So I would say that the way we’re doing is we’re executing on things that total up more than what we’re sharing in our financial bridge. So we can deliver, I am a believer in over promising, under promise and over deliver. it’s not like I’m totally new here. So I’ve been able to learn what we can achieve, what we can achieve now, we’ll have a more realistic fourth quarter forecast. And I think we’re understanding the margins on the business, particularly when you think about Green Giant cans. One year we lost it in Walmart and that hurt us, the next year now we have it back in. And so forecast in the margin implications on all of that. We’re learning how to do that. And now I think we have a more stable business going forward and we can be – I think a little bit more reliable in our forecast.

Bob Cantwell

Management

And the other thing just to add to that, just as a reminder, when you think about the last two years, beginning of 2017 I don’t think anybody in the packaged food industry was suggesting that there was going to be a fourth quarter that was going to come in the aftermath of two major hurricanes that were going to knock frayed up industry-wide. So that was kind of a big unknown. And that was the beginning of inflation. As Ken was talking earlier, we’re in a deflationary environment for some time even the beginning of last year, folks were talking about inflationary pressures on freight, but not really across the board and still deflation. And there was still that concept of either the lower price because of the costs are coming down. And so there’s been a lot of changes over the last two years from an industry wide phenomenon. It’s our job to anticipate that, as Ken said, we’re working to do that as best as we can, but I don’t think the inflationary pressures that we felt in the last two years, people were predicting in 2016.

Andrew Lasar

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thanks for that. And then I apologize if I missed this, but as you all know the largest competitors in right in frozen veggies going through some of its own at rejiggering right of its portfolio – taking another look at what innovation they planned to bring to the market going forward. And maybe much of that won’t happen really till that, that fall timeframe around freezer case resets and things that you mentioned around your next wave of innovation. No doubt you were expecting that and anticipating it, but again, with this notion of flexibility, do you feel like you’re building an ample level of prudence in the way you’re also budgeting specifically around Green Giant Frozen with the likelihood and knowledge that you will have a stronger competitive response going forward then maybe you’ve had more recently.

Bob Cantwell

Management

Yes. Our feeling is that our largest competitor in that category from a brand standpoint was owned by a company that was bigger than us and very much into frozen. And while the change on the name on the door is still owned by a larger competitive company that’s more focused on that category. So I don’t know that a lot’s changed in that standpoint. They are formidable competitor better before our assumptions are going to continue to be a formal competitor.

Ken Romanzi

Management

But answer to your question, we were trying to be very realistic, you know, forecasting new products. It’s not an easy task either, but we have a few lead retailers that want our new products early. And so what we’re planning to launch in the fourth quarter of 2019 has already been embedded by them and we’re actually trying to hold them back and not introduce as many things as we want them as they want to.

Andrew Lasar

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. I appreciate it.

Ken Romanzi

Management

So it’s always a gamble on what new products going to deliverable. We’re trying to be as reasonable as we can with as much of the forecasting and below that we have on new products. And it’s all based on the endorsement that feel we’ve got from lead retailers.

Operator

Operator

That’s all the time we have for questions. Mr. Romanzi, I’d like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Ken Romanzi

Management

Thank you all for joining. Again, it’s an honor and a privilege to lead B&G and we look forward to reporting on our progress throughout the year. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

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