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B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 4, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the B&G Foods Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. You can access detailed financial information on the quarter in the company's earnings release issued today, which is available at ir.bgfoods.com. Before the company begins its formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of the discussion in today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and, therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer you to the company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent SEC filings for more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact the company's future operating results and financial condition. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. The company will also be making references on today's call to the non-GAAP financial measures: adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted earnings per share, and base business net sales. Reconciliations of these financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today's earnings release. Amy Chiovari, the company's Interim Chief Financial Officer, will start the call by discussing the company's financial results for the quarter. After that, Bob Cantwell, the company's Chief Executive Officer, will discuss various factors that affected the company's results, selected business highlights, and his thoughts concerning the remainder of 2017 and beyond. I would now like to turn our conference over to Ms. Amy Chiovari. Amy? Amy J. Chiovari - B&G Foods, Inc.: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Net sales for the second quarter of 2017 increased 20.2% to $368.1 million compared to $306.4 million in the second quarter of 2016. Net sales of…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from David Palmer from Royal Bank of Canada. Please go ahead.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good afternoon. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Good afternoon, David.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Question first – hey. This consumer takeaway data, if you exclude the spices business and Victoria, but including Green Giant, it was only looking like it was down 1% for the quarter. So, in other words, excluding the noise that you would naturally have from spices, that number doesn't look like the down 5%. Do you see anything with regard to shipments versus consumer takeaway in terms of noise with the quarter that was a give and take versus the surrounding quarters either the first or the next quarter? And then I have a follow-up. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: No. Well, a couple of things. When we look at our portfolio and we exclude kind of this – and the spices that relate to what we just bought, (20:58) along with Victoria pasta sauces. We looked on average across our portfolio, we're down about – it's down – consumption trends are down about 3%. So as we looked at kind of what happened in the third quarter, we certainly didn't beat those results and for a few technical reasons and timing, in particular, timing of Pirate's Booty sales, as an example, we fell short a few million dollars on Pirate's Booty that we've already made up here in July. And it was really just timing of promotional spend. So, we feel real good that Pirate's Booty for full year will actually be up and now where it's finished year-to-date. We've also seen some challenges, bigger challenges than expected on Green Giant in shelf-stable. Shelf-stable has been very challenging for us. Category dynamics and pricing – and the pricing dynamics are difficult as everybody is trying to sell it cheaper each day. But we also had a couple of products that are actually very profitable in the Green…

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And when you're looking forward, you said you were expecting something like 10% growth in Green Giant and a 2% to 3% decline in your base business or other business, what is your – how is your visibility in that and your confidence in that? And we're coming off obviously a guidance change here, so clearly, there is going to be concern that you're not guiding conservatively enough and that you don't have visibility into your business. So what can you tell us about the way that you're guiding and how you have and perhaps better visibility into this guidance versus the old guidance? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Sure. I mean, we certainly, from a sales guidance where we were at $1.64 billion to $1.68 billion originally, I mean, all we really moved down is $10 million on the top side. We're very comfortable with, based on where Green Giant frozen is today and our expectation in the second half, that it will deliver in that range of $530 million in sales that we originally talked about at the beginning of the year as part of our guidance. So we expect that there. We're falling a little short than where we thought we could be on the base. But we know of certain positives as we look at the base for the second half of the year that we'll keep our expected decline at kind of somewhere between that 2% to 3% range, 2.5% than hopefully better, but in that range, not a number that says 5%. So we know where we're at with that, and we've already gotten finished July, and some was (25:47) just the rollover trends, we had a very positive July driven by a couple of brands that was just timing and promotions, with the biggest being Pirate. So, we feel good about that, and nothing really should change on the trajectory of the spices & seasonings business as well as Victoria, but spices & seasonings being much bigger business, that just tracking along at kind of, give or take, $130 million half of the year. So we're well on our way to doing kind of $260 million or so, if not more, in sales on spices & seasonings for the year. So, we are a lot more comfortable where we are today and what this is going to look like for the rest of the year. The only disappointment I have and where that is is spices & seasonings and Victoria has been really good, and we're actually seeing more and more benefits from the frozen Green Giant, and I need to get past fix – we need to fix more of the negatives on the rest of the base, and kind of longer term, we need to be better than 2% to 3% down. And that's what we're still looking at that kind of a number for the second half.

David Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Cornell Burnette from Citi. Please go ahead.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good evening. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Good evening.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Just wanted to know, in terms of the guidance, bottom end of the sales range stayed the same, but the bottom end of the EPS guidance goes down about some pennies. So, it looks like there is something kind of hitting you on the cost side and with margins maybe coming in a little bit worse than what you had originally anticipated, so I want to know just specifically perhaps what were the areas on that side that caught you off guard initially? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Well, so our EBITDA – adjusted EBITDA range were really – were moving down $7.5 million on each side of the range. But in addition to that, the tax rate, along with overall interest that's small, but each one of those – when you add those two together between taxes and kind of interest kind of inched us up down or decreased us about $0.02 on our EPS guidance on both sides of the range. Cost, I said on the last call we're going to be about 22% EBITDA margin. We're tracking towards that with 21.7% year-to-date. Really no surprises on what we've known about cost and even the cadence of where those costs was coming in. I expected the second and third quarter to be a little shy of 22%, which it should be, and the fourth quarter being a little better just because the level of marketing spend really drops in the fourth quarter just based on the cadence of that spend this year. So, from an EBITDA margin, from a cost, I mean, none of it – there's no new news on that. Everything is falling in line. The positive on all of that is we're actually seeing more savings than expected on some key commodities. So, we're actually seeing – on things that we buy, we're seeing some deflation, that will help us in the second half of the year and even further into – as we head into 2018.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

That's appreciated. But, I guess, the main thing I was getting at is if the bottom end of the sales line doesn't move, then why does EBITDA, I guess, go down $7 million. So I'm trying to just bridge to what changed there if the sales forecast is still the same at the bottom end. < : It's a lot about the mix of what we're dealing with today. So, when we look at what happened on EBITDA results here, we needed to be a little bit more conservative on that EBITDA range and still feel comfortable in most of the range we had before. And hopefully, we beat the bottom end of this range, and we're more in the mid to upper side of this range. But we felt, with the sales shortfall in the second quarter, it was the right thing to do to look at this range and take it down a little bit. But from a margin perspective, we're tracking toward the margins we expected. Part of it is a mix change because a lot of the sales growth, that kind of the cover sales growth has come from spices & seasonings, which has performed, give or take, about $20 million more than expected for the first half of the year when we initially bought the business. We now understand what to expect on that business based on the customers and what they're doing today. That business is lower margin than our typical business, it's about 17%, 18% EBITDA margin in total. It's mixing our EBITDA margin down a little bit, but not mixing it down more than we understood when we came out of the first quarter, when we looked at 22% for the rest of the year. So I guess, I'd leave you with, hopefully, we deliver and beat that bottom range. We don't want to be at the bottom range, but we felt, after we missed the sales number here, by our internal estimates of where we thought we'd be, by about $6 million in the second quarter, it behooved us to move this EBITDA range down a little bit here. So, hopefully, we will be more conservative than not there.

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Well, it makes sense to me, what you're saying. And then this is the only question I have is if maybe you can give some comfort or some guidance on how you get there in the back half. If my math is correct, then, it would say that, to get just to the bottom end of the range, you're looking for something like a more than 20% increase year-on-year on EBITDA, whereas in the first half it was down. So it seems like a very big change. I know that kind of consumer marketing expenses moves from a tailwind to a headwind, but just wanted to see if you can kind of put the pieces together, to say why you're comfortable with the bottom end of the range, and actually think that it could be more towards the middle of the range? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: So, kind of what I said in my prepared remarks, I'll certainly walk through that again. So what we know that hits us in the third quarter is, we've been experiencing – and we knew, coming into this year, we'd have higher distribution cost from warehouse and distribution in frozen than the former owner had on the Green Giant business, just because they have a lot more products to ship beyond Green Giant on those trucks and warehouse. And we knew in our model, once we took it over, we'd have more expenses. So we know we're getting hit for $4 million, kind of, as we look versus the (32:54) last year and the last six months, we know that we have incremental cost of $4 million in the third quarter on warehouse and distribution. We don't have any incremental cost in the fourth quarter on our kind of base business,…

Cornell R. Burnette - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Well understood.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Farha Aslam from Stephens, Inc. Please go ahead.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good evening. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Hi.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

First question is on that base business, on that 2% to 3% decline. That decline accelerated versus the sort of 1% to 2% you had been running at previously. Is that acceleration just the issues at Mama Mary's essentially, or is there something more longer-term we should think about, in terms of where the consumer dynamic is going, where the retail dynamic is going, and a longer term response to the changing dynamic in the retail landscape, given your product mix of smaller brands? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Well, I don't think today that's affecting us in a big way. I mean, certainly, consumption trends in our categories at least – certainly over the last few years and a little bit more in this first half of the year, had been a little bit more negative than we want. The consumer dynamic is changing, and that change is taking place, but it's not a big effect on our business today. E-commerce, and all the other things that everybody talks about is, here to stay. It's a small part of kind of the food business today, but we're also dedicating a team to make sure we are out in front of that, because we think it will be a bigger and bigger part of the food business as we go forward. Our expectation, though, is hopefully that helps some of our brands, not hurts it. When I look at the pieces that drives us to 2% to 3%, what you said is correct. Mama Mary's is a big piece that we don't usually make up the whole piece of it. We haven't turned around another brand real well that was troublesome last year, it's still being trouble for us this year, in TrueNorth, small business, but the dollars…

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. And then on Green Giant, could you share with us the performance of your new products and then how you expect the new items that you're introducing could garner shelf space given that there have been a number of new entries in that frozen category by a competitor? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Oh, absolutely, our competitor launches a lot of new products and those are certainly a great job. But our new innovation that we launched kind of September, October of last year has just taken off, and it's driving our overall frozen business in a very large way. And as I've said I've said in other calls and in conferences, and this is a run rate of a business that's heading toward $100 million plus. And we're really excited about – and, yeah, the first half of the year didn't even should (41:32) have the ability to show all that positive because we were still building inventory and capacity to sell because the demand has been higher than kind of our capacity. We now have all the capacity to sell a lot more, and we're getting a lot more points of distribution at some retailers we held back a little bit with just because of capacity constraints. So, there's a lot of upside. We've launched some exciting new line extensions, which are a little bit more flavor extensions in what we just launched here that's out in the market getting great acceptances because the retailers and our ultimate consumers have loved these products and really have upside. And we're really excited about our launch that we'll announce in September for delivery in January in the frozen space that nobody else is doing today. So, really excited, and that's what we did last year. We really launched products that nobody was doing in a big way in frozen. It might have been getting done in fresh and in other venues, but not in frozen, and that's what we're launching again here that we'll announce in September. So, we're really excited about our approach to innovation on Green Giant, which is, in a lot of ways, as simple as let's try to deliver vegetables in a format that the consumer wants to eat them today, not just as a side, but a lot more ability to use in recipes along with a side or use as a main meal altogether. And we have a lot more things on the docket that we're going to drive to for that. But certainly, all has been good in frozen, and as you mentioned, with our competitor, category is growing, and that's good for all of us. And as we all pay attention to the category and create new innovation and excitement, it's moving the whole category, and that's a win for everybody who succeeds in the category.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jon Andersen from William Blair. Please go ahead. Jon R. Andersen - William Blair & Co. LLC: Hey, good afternoon, everybody. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Good afternoon. Jon R. Andersen - William Blair & Co. LLC: Bob, I wanted to ask first about pricing. The pricing got sequentially a little bit more challenging, it looks like, in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. What's your outlook for pricing overall as you look to the back half of the year? And are you feeling any incremental pressure there just as retailers look to kind of find ways to compete in a rapidly evolving market? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Yeah, and there's certainly pressure out there, but that's not what's driving our pricing today. There's a little bit of that. Most of our pricing and shortfall for the quarter, it's coming from a few specific areas. We certainly got more aggressive on Ortega to defend ourselves in pieces of the categories that we sell against our competition, all planned, and that means driven by the retailer, really driven by competition. And we've also have just pure (45:12) lower pricing on all our syrup, our maple syrup brands just because of cost in the industry is lower. And cost has come down year-over-year for the last few years and everybody has had to kind of move pricing down. And we competed where it made sense, and as I said earlier in my remarks, we walked away from private label business that prices just got too low, it made no sense. But certainly, we're not seeing the full retailer – and we're not seeing the pressure from retailers as much and we're really just seeing a few – in a few…

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Hi, Bob. I was just hoping you could help me with a couple of questions in my bridge. Is Green Giant still expected to grow year-over-year? I mean, I had like 5% growth in my numbers off of a $507 million base. It doesn't seem like that's the case now. And then secondly, what's the strategy for shelf-stable Green Giant going forward? It seems like there's a lot of parts of this business – and maybe in frozen, too, where it's going to industrial customers or it's under a lot of pressure at retail from private label. So, can you tell us, as you're figuring out the pack, the vegetable pack for the fall, this fall, are you intending to reduce your exposure to shelf-stable? Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Well, let's – I mean, I'll kind of walk you through the pieces, starting with your first question again (53:19). Robert Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC: Thanks. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Last year, we kind of finished around $507 million in total sales in Green Giant. We're looking at a business that will deliver $530 million, if not more, in 2017. So very strong double-digit growth in the second half getting us there, most of that coming in the fourth quarter. A lot of that – we had an inventory issue. And when we took over the – from the TSA in October of last year, that hit our sales with anywhere between $12 million and $15 million. We have a full boat and a run rate on innovation, that's going to be huge in the fourth quarter. So we're really feeling really…

Operator

Operator

And this is all the time we've had for Q&A today. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Bob Cantwell for any closing or additional remarks. Robert C. Cantwell - B&G Foods, Inc.: Okay. Thank you again for joining us today. We look forward to a much better second half of the year, and we feel very confident we will deliver our guidance that we put out today. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect.