Graham Sadler
Chief Financial Officer
Okay, so interest rates, our first driver would be a material and consequential change in interest rates will have an effect on the capital markets businesses across the real estate sector. But I’ve said, a material and consequential increase in interest rate, which does need a quarter of a point or a half a point, those are not consequential values. So what’s happened is core or class A buildings in great markets have been trading at interest rates or cap rates in the 3% to 4% range which has created so much capital value in the markets that there is plenty of room in which transactions will continue to occur really through interest rates going 1% higher. I think once interest rates move more than 100 basis points higher, I think you are going to start seeing a dramatic, not a dramatic, but it will have a real impact on the torrid capital market pace that is existing in the world today, but you won’t see it impacted until you get 100 basis points and I think that is just well, well off into the future. You have to remember spreads on real estate right now are really high. Meaning, you can buy great real estate at yield at historically high spread to treasury, right. So it’s still a tremendously attractive asset and you need a real interest rate move, so I don’t think you will see touch leasing for quite some time, because remember if you get interest rates growing up that means you have a growing economic, if you have a growing economic, you got people growing their business so I think the natural offset to a capital market slowdown with real interest rate rise would be a continuing and actually picking up pace of leasing, so we’ve grown our capital markets business, you saw 184%. We signaled to you guys six months and a year ago that we felt we were undersized in capital markets and we were going to build that business and we are building it and now we are going to participate much better in what I think is going to be an excellent capital market business for the next two, three years before you see interest rates anything remotely like that. And our leasing business, as you know, is world class in America and we are very well positioned for that interest rate rise, because that means that comes with economic growth. So if we were all capital market, right, you would have good couple of years to go and then you got some issues, but since we are undersized in capital market, I just think we can grow through these things and continue to outpace the market in new markets. We just happen to be sort of in the right places at the right time.