Gregory Heckman
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Sure. Yes, you see that correctly. And in fact, as always, we are looking at what we have delivered and then we are looking at the curves for the balance of year. The curves are definitely weaker than the last time we talked and so we have reflected that in the outlook. Now that being said, if you look historically, we will be really surprised if they stay there, but that is what we see right now. Probably if we kind of talk around the world on the crush margin side, of course, North America is the strongest with China probably being the weakest. Europe has definitely felt some pressure as Argentina has ran harder this year and that meal got pushed out into Europe, but we are seeing Argentina now traditionally starts to slow down after harvest as well as the producer as we move towards an election and maybe perceived higher risk devaluation now starting to slow the marketing. So we will see Argentine crush start to slow down. As far as the farmer selling, of course, in Brazil, on the corn side, the producer has not been as quite as sold as prior, because you had a tough weather situation there in a smaller safrina crop, Black Sea a little bit behind in corn, but in the U.S., just slightly ahead of history. And so the next kind of wave in corn selling will be, I think, as people see how the U.S. crop as the weather continues to play out and get a look at kind of what people feel comfortable about the yields, and we will see the next marketing. The U.S. farmers pretty sold up on the 2021 crop a little bit ahead of last year, and I think that is really the story again of getting through the weather, which has got to play through August here, get comfortable with the yields and then we will probably see another wave of marketing. And then in Brazil, of course, we are behind prior year, which last year was pretty special, the way things formed up and with what happened with the FX and the heavy marketing. So we didn’t really expect that to repeat. But overall, curve is pretty weak, but historically, we will be really surprised if they stay there. And in fact, we are starting to see a little glimmer of improvement in China even this week.