Elizabeth Boland
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Thank you, Dave. So as I mentioned earlier and we've done in previous conference calls, I'll discuss our reported results as well as certain metrics that we think help isolate unusual and non-recurring charges. The earnings release does include these tables that reconcile our U.S. GAAP reported numbers to the additional metrics for adjusted EBITDA, operating income, net income and EPS, specifically quantifying non-recurring charges such as the costs associated with stock offerings and deal costs for acquisitions. So again, top-line revenue growth was $52 million for the first quarter, with the full-service center business increasing $45 million, backup increasing $4 million, and ed advisory increasing by $3 million. In addition to the new center growth rate increases and enrollment gains that Dave mentioned, favorable FX rates also contributed to the top-line growth. Gross profits increased $11.4 million to $77 million in the quarter, and were 23.2% of revenue compared to 23.5% in 2013. In addition to the factors that we reviewed earlier, our backup division continues to be a strong contributor to our margin growth in the first quarter of 2014 as we generated 30% operating income on -- 30% operating income growth on the 13% revenue expansion. As we've talked about on prior calls, the quarterly margin trends and backup can vary somewhat based on the timing of new client launches as well as seasonal trends in utilization, which tend to be higher over the summer as full vacation periods than they are in the first quarter. Adjusted overhead in the quarter was $35 million, compared to $30 million last year, remaining flat at 10.5% of revenue. We are close to completing the integration of Kids Unlimited and Children's Choice, so the overhead synergies have not totally been realized yet. In addition, stock compensation expense of $2.4 million in 2014 reflects the launch of our equity incentive program across the company in the first quarter of 2014. Other than these two factors, we're realizing the expected leverage of the investments that we have made across all of our operating segments. So in summary, adjusted net income of $22.7 million, which translates to adjusted EPS of $0.34 a share in the quarter is up from $0.25 a share last year. We generated operating cash flow of $52 million in the quarter, essentially even with 2013. After deducting maintenance CapEx of $5 million, our free cash flow in the quarter totaled $47 million, compared to $43 million last year. Main drivers of this increase are just improved operating performance and consistent networking capital. In addition, we did have lower cash taxes in 2013 due to the refinancing of our debt, that generated significant deductible costs. We ended the quarter with approximately $75 million in cash and no borrowings outstanding under our revolving credit facility. Now to quantify our usual quarter and operating statistics, at March 31 we operated 881 centers, total capacity of 99,700, which is an increase of 13% from the 88,100 we had at March 31, 2013. We operate approximately 75% of our contracts under profit-and-loss arrangements and 25% are under cost-plus-contracts. And our average full-service center capacity is 137 in the U.S. and 76 in Europe. Before I get in to the Q2 and full-year 2014 guidance, I wanted to take a minute to refresh your memory or introduce those of you who are newer to the story about the two factors that will affect the sequential quarterly performance this year. First, we will be lapping the Kids Unlimited acquisition in April and the Children's Choice acquisition in July, thereby affecting the relative revenue growth. Second, as most of you know, we experienced some seasonality over the summer months as older children age out of our full-service centers and as we rebuild that enrollment over the fall, and as our backup utilization peaks. Both of these factors impact the sequential operating performance for those segments. As Dave previewed, our updated projection for the full year 2014 anticipates revenue growth approximating 11% to 12% over 2013. Organic growth approximates [ph] 8% to 10%, and this is comprised of price increases of 3% to 4%, growth in our enrollment of the the mature and ramp-in centers of 1% to 3%, new organic full-service center additions of 1% to 2%, and growth from our backup and net advisory services of 1% to 2%. In addition, acquisitions will add approximately 4% to the revenue in 2014, including the lapping effect of acquisitions that were completed last year. Offsetting these increases are the effects of center closings which do include both legacy organic and acquired centers. And this effect is approximately a 2% decrement. We expect that income from operations in 2014 will approximate 11% of revenue, expanding 60 to 75 basis points from the 10.4% adjusted income from operations that we reported for the full year 2013. We're projecting amortization expense of approximately $30 million for the year, which includes $20 million related to our May of 2008 LBO. And we're estimating depreciation to be approximately $44 million to $45 million. I'm sorry, that's incorrect. We're expecting depreciation to approximate $52 million to $54 million. We estimate stock compensation expense of $9 million and interest expense is projected to approximate $34 million for the year, assuming continuous 4% borrowing rates on our term loan, and no borrowings under the revolver required based on our expected cash flow generation. We estimate that the effective structural tax rate will approximate 37% of our adjusted pretax income in 2014, similar to that illustrated in our results for 2013 and consistent with the projected GAAP reported effective tax rate for the full year 2014. The combination of top-line growth and margin leverage leaves us to project a 15% to 17% increase to adjusted EBITDA to a range of $241 million to $245 million for 2014. With adjusted net income for 2014 in the range of $97 million to $99 million and 68 million estimated weighted average shares outstanding, we estimate that adjusted pro forma therefore will range from $1.43 to $1.46 for the full year. Lastly, for 2014, again the full year, we project we'll generate $160 million to $165 million of cash flow from operations or $130 million to $140 million of free cash flow net of projected maintenance capital spending of $25 million to $30 million, consistent with the level essentially that we generated in 2013. Based on centers in development and slated to open in 2014, we expect to invest approximately $40 million in new center capital, consistent with 2013 levels. On the acquisition front, we plan to spend $20 million to $25 million on tuck-in acquisitions during 2014, versus the $130 million we spent this past year on the acquisition of Kids Unlimited and Children's Choice. We expect to fund all these investments from cash from operations and end the year with approximately $90 million in cash on hand. Moving specifically to the second quarter of 2014, our estimated revenue growth for Q2 approximates 10% to 11%. Our outlook for adjusted EBITDA is $64 million to $65 million. And using the 37% effective structural tax rate on the adjusted income before tax, we're projecting adjusted net income in the range of $27 million, $28 million, and EPS in the range of $0.40 to $0.41 a share for Q2 of 2014. So with that, Stacey [ph], I think we are ready for Q&A.