Lawson Whiting
Analyst · Bernstein. You may proceed
Yes. Good. So, Nadine, a few things on this, because this is obviously a topic that we have spent a lot of time trying to understand a little bit better too. Over the last, I'll make it up five years, we had seen TDS go from 5% to 4% to 3% to 2% to 1%, something like that. I would be concerned that some of those things you just talked about, wellness trends, cannabis trends, GLP-1s, all those types of things, that would be an indicator that something is happening structurally in the business that's going to -- that could be permanent, but that's not what we saw. We as -- I think everyone on this call knows. I mean, that 4% to 5% range, COVID moved it around volatility wise, but it has been in that range for decades. And then all of a sudden, if you look at TDS the same, you look at July of last summer and you see a very sharp deceleration in the market, like GLP-1s or cannabis isn't not going to take a market and move at 4 or 5 points seemingly overnight. And so I just don't think that's what is -- I don't those big macro concerns that are out there are what is impacting the market today. Now over the next decade or two, do I want to look at that and understand that better? It is -- it could be a headwind, yes, but particularly on a healthier Gen Z kind of conversation. Cannabis, that's been around now for, I don't even know, ten plus years, whatever it is. We've studied that 18 ways till Sunday and have never been able to find a state where we saw reduced alcohol consumption based on it going legal and it's tough to do now because so many places are legal, but -- so, yeah. So I do think in general these are shorter-term challenges, particularly the US, but it's also true in Europe too. Europe is dealing a lot of the same macro factors the US is. And I do think it's the combination of what we've already talked about, but the very difficult comps, I think the consumer is weakened than it was, say, this time last year. But now predicting is the turnaround going to be six months or twelve months, I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball on that. But I am a believer that the macro factors impacting our business are more short-term in nature than these big macro headwinds.