Jane Morreau
Analyst · JP Morgan
Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson said, we are pleased with the start to our fiscal year, particularly in light of the current environment, with both our underlying net sales and operating income up relative to last year, and our reported operating income and EPS increasing even more. Not surprising and amplified during this volatile term, there is considerable noise in these results, ranging from product innovation launches, timing-related items in the same period last year, portfolio reshaping, a significant discrete tax benefit, and of course COVID-19 related effects that include inventory fluctuations, customer buying pattern changes and geographic, channel, size and portfolio mix shifts. I plan on highlighting these effects on our results to provide more clarity on our performance in the quarter. But first, as a reminder, our business began to significantly experience the impact of COVID-19 pandemic in our fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, beginning in mid-March and continuing throughout April. As a result, we estimated that the pandemic negatively affected our underlying net sales approximately 15% for the March-April period, with a greater negative effect occurring in April, following some benefit we believe we experienced from pantry loading in March in some of our larger developed markets. Now with that as a backdrop, let's turn our attention to the first quarter, where our results improved significantly relative to our fourth quarter of fiscal 2020. Starting with our top-line, compared to the first quarter of last year, reported net sales were down modestly reflecting the rebalancing or get-back of the distributor inventory built in the U.S. in April 2020 during the period of great uncertainty surrounding potential supply chain disruption. Adjusting for this factor, our underlying net sales grew 3%. When stripping up the noise I noted earlier, however, we believe our net sales were down low-single-digits. As we look broadly across our geographic clusters, all were affected in some way during this quarter by the pandemic and its related effects, of course, some more than others. Our Travel Retail business continued to be the most significantly affected as international airline travel remains at very low levels. Airport stores are largely closed. Airlines are offering limited in-flight services and the cruise industry is still shut down. These factors contributed to our underlying net sales declining over 60% for the quarter for our Travel Retail business. Our emerging markets collectively declined underlying net sales low-single-digits for the quarter. Benefits from timing-related customer buying patterns in Q1 of both last year and this year, notably in Poland and Brazil, and exceptional growth from our New Mix RTD business in Mexico, driven by the temporary interruptions experienced in the country's beer supply chain in May, June, masked the significant and broad-based declines registered across nearly all our emerging markets. Our developed international markets returned to underlying net sales growth in the quarter, up double-digits, propelled by the accelerated demand for RTDs, most notably in Australia and Germany, which were both benefiting from the consumer desire for convenience. The launch of Jack Daniel’s and Berry in Germany, and Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple in a number of key markets, including UK, Germany and France also contributed to the quarter-over-quarter increase. Further, we estimate that favorable comparison to Q1 last year and customer buying patterns this year contributed to nearly half of the growth in underlying net sales. Adjusting for these factors, we believe our developed international business grew low-single-digits. And finally, our U.S. business, which represents half our net sales, has remained resilient throughout this pandemic. Our portfolio appears to be well-positioned as Lawson mentioned in this important market to meet some of the changing consumer needs and behaviors driven by the significant increase in at-home consumption and the desire for everyday luxury. In fact, the acceleration in our underlying net sales growth in the quarter in this market was driven by those brands in our portfolio that are meeting those needs. For example, the desire for convenience, our Jack Daniel’s RTDs experienced strong consumer demand, both from our existing Jack Daniel’s Country Cocktails brand, as well as the excitement of our recent limited introduction of new spirits based Jack Daniel’s RTDs. The ease of mixability, the continued launch of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple, higher volumes of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey, and our tequilas, el Jimador and Herradura, provided a benefit to the quarter. As a reminder, we will begin to lap the launch of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Apple in this market in our second quarter. Everyday Luxury, Woodford Reserve and Old Forester continue to sustain double-digit growth trends that we've enjoyed for a number of years. Now, I'd like to expand a bit further on Lawson's comments as they relate to the U.S. market by leveraging both Nielsen and NABCA takeaway information. Since the pandemic began, the off-premise takeaway trends for beverage alcohol significantly accelerated. We also note the acceleration in volumes in the off-premise has consistently throughout this period more than offset the declines in the on-premise. Meaning, overall TDS consumption volumetrically has increased compared to pre-COVID. Consistent with TDS, we have also experienced increase in volumes. However, portfolio and channel mix shifts have adversely affected our margins which I will discuss in a bit. As you know, each of our major markets around the world are in varying stages of reopening, and in some cases are experiencing a halt in reopenings, new restrictions or even a second round of closures. Consumer purchase patterns continue to evolve as bars, restaurants and other on- premise channels try to remain open while complying with various regulations. And in some markets, we are seeing a return of consumers to the on-premise as restrictions on consumer movement are easing. I thought it was important to take a minute and talk about our flagship brand Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey and how it's performing in this environment. Overall, for the quarter, Tennessee Whiskey volumes were down with essentially flat volumes in the developed markets and declines in the emerging and Travel Retail channel. The shift from on-premise to off-premise consumption in the developed markets drove the brand's underlying net sales down further. However, overall, the brand remains quite healthy and is gaining share in the majority of its top 10 markets. In the brand's largest market, the U.S. volumetric trends are essentially consistent with pre-COVID trends. Now turning to our gross margin. For the quarter, our gross margin declined 320 basis points, which also resulted in our underlying gross profit dropping 1%. Higher input costs related to agave, lower volumes for Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey resulting in a reduction in fixed costs absorption and unfavorable mix drove our margin down. The mixed impact reflects a shift in where consumers are buying our brands from the on-premise to the off premise and e-premise, and a significant acceleration in the rate of sales growth from our RTD portfolio. Combined, these shifts reduced our gross margin by approximately 100 basis points. Not surprising, given the rapid restrictions placed by the COVID-19 crisis and the timing of our quarter, our advertising investments were down significantly in the first three months of the fiscal year. This not only reflects the reduction of on-premise activations, and the cancellation of consumer events, such as summer festivals and sponsorships, but also our pause in the month of July on certain social media platforms, specifically Facebook and Instagram. In addition and importantly, the reduction reflects the phasing of spending. For example, our investment in the Kentucky Derby has been shifted from Q1 to Q2, as the event was rescheduled. We expect our advertising investment to accelerate over the balance of the fiscal year. In the meantime, we have quickly adjusted our focus and resources based on the evolving landscape. Our underlying SG&A investment was down in the quarter as well, reflecting a significant reduction in discretionary spending such as travel and entertainment and special meetings, as well as hiring freezes. As the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on the global economy continues to evolve, we continue to closely monitor key indicators in each market, just as the stage of restriction, consumer trends and behavioral insights, and macroeconomic conditions. We believe this has and will continue to aid us in our frequent evaluations of the pace of recovery, and where and when to invest. There are two items that positively impacted our first quarter reported results only: First, the sale of the Early Times, Canadian Mist and Collingwood brands and the Canadian Mist production facility, resulted in an EPS estimated gain on sale of $0.19. Second, we recognized an $0.08 per share benefit related to a discreet tax item. These two items combined with the increase in operating income from our business resulted in diluted earnings per share increasing 73% to $0.67. And finally, to our fiscal 2021 outlook. We continue to face substantial uncertainty, and that has not diminished since our year-end early June call. As a result of this uncertainty and volatility that we expect to persist over the months to come, and the low visibility we have on recovery, we are not able to provide quantitative guidance for fiscal 2021 at this time. But that being said, and more qualitatively speaking, as we think about our broad geographic clusters, we expect Travel Retail business to not recover and to remain down significantly for the year. Considering the benefits that aided our emerging markets’ underlying top-line performance in the quarter, and the continued expected shift in spending to value brands and essential needs, we expect the declines in our emerging markets collectively to increase compared to Q1 performance over the balance of the fiscal year. For our developed markets, we expect the volatility and uncertainty to remain high for the foreseeable future and hope to have a better understanding of such impact of volatility when we report our Q2 performance later this calendar year. Our non-branded business dominated by sales of used barrels is expected to continue to be a drag on our top-line performance this year, as it was in the quarter, reflecting the expectation of lower volumes and pricing. We believe the timing and strength of the on-premise channel recovery will depend on a variety of factors, but will look different and not at full capacity by the fiscal year-end. Our gross margin will likely remain under pressure for the year, driven by the expectation of higher input costs and mix shift. Where our gross margin ultimately lands will depend not only on the volumes of our business, but the mix of our business geographically by portfolio, channel and size. Regarding our operating investments, both advertising and SG&A, we believe we are well-positioned to invest effectively as the recovery occurs. We expect overall operating expenses, notably our advertising investments to accelerate as the significant year-over-year rate of declines in Q1 will not be sustained throughout the year. We, of course, will remain agile, diligent, focused and disciplined on our investments as the environment continues to evolve. As it relates to our effective tax rate for the full year, we expect our tax rate from operations to be about 21% and our all-in tax rate to be in the range of 17% to 19%. In summary, while there's a lot of noise in our first quarter performance, we believe our results are solid amidst this very challenging environment. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our continuing capacity to generate solid operating cash flow is sound. As always, we will continue to manage our uses of cash thoughtfully. We believe these actions in-string will allow us to navigate this crisis as circumstances evolve, and we will emerge from this unprecedented time an even stronger company with healthier brands. And with that, this concludes our prepared remarks. Dorothy, you may open the line up to questions.