Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Brown-Forman Third Quarter Fiscal 2015 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Jay Koval, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin. Jason Koval - Vice President & Director-Investor Relations: Thanks, Victoria, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's third quarter 2015 earnings call. Joining me today are Paul Varga, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jane Morreau, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Fitzgerald, Chief Accounting Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise. This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2015. The release can be found on our website under the section titled Investor Relations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors that you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K, Form 8-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial conditions and results of operations are contained in the press release. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jane for her prepared remarks. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks, Jay, and thanks for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. I'll cover two topics today, which should leave plenty time for questions after our prepared remarks. First, I'll review our year-to-date results including trends in the third quarter; and second, I'll discuss our updated outlook for 2015. So let me start by reviewing our recent results. Third quarter underlying net sales growth of over 5% is particularly impressive in light of the strong 8% underlying growth we delivered in the third quarter of last year, and against the competitive set that is showing little to no growth. Year-to-date, underlying sales are also up 5% with price/mix contributing 3 points of sales growth. Top line results in the United States continued to accelerate in the quarter, up 7% year-to-date compared to 5% for the first half. Market share gains in the U.S. are being driven by the great work our teams and partners are doing to capitalize on the renewed consumer interest and authentic American whiskey, including the Jack Daniel's family, Woodford Reserve and Old Forester. Premiumization trend and innovation have played key roles in driving our outperformance over the last few years, and we look to introduce new expressions over time that we believe can help us deliver sustainable long-term growth. Developed markets outside the United States grew underlying net sales 4% during the first nine months. France, the United Kingdom and Canada are all growing quite well, while Germany and Italy were up slightly. These markets helped offset sluggish results in Australia and Japan and in Spain where results were down double digits. And in the emerging markets, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey continues to grow mid-teens driven by strength in Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines and sub-Sahara Africa. Mexico results were flat as the mainstream tequila category remains quite competitive and we are actively repositioning our el Jimador brand at a higher price point. Additionally, large declines in Poland driven by Finlandia pulled down our total emerging market growth to 6% in the first nine months. Remember, Poland had large buy-ins in advance of last year's January first excise tax increase, so comparisons were challenging in calendar 2014. Excluding Poland, our emerging market sales growth would have been seven points higher. Furthermore, we estimate that year-to-date underlying net sales growth for the entire company, excluding Poland, would have been 1 point higher at 6.5%. Let's now move to the reconciliation of reported to underlying results. An appreciating U.S. dollar continue to weigh heavily on our reported results. Last quarter I used the euro as an example stating that it had declined 7% since our first quarter call. These declines continued in our third quarter as the euro dropped another 9%. In total, we experienced additional FX headwinds of approximately $0.04 in the third quarter beyond our expectations at the time of our second quarter call. So while our top line grew 5% on an underlying basis during the first nine months of fiscal 2015, foreign exchange negatively impacted our reported results by approximately 3 percentage points. An increase in estimated net distributor inventories helped reported results by 1 percentage point due to our route-to-consumer change in France. As a reminder, our former distributor fully depleted inventories of our brands during November and December of last fiscal year, leading to simply no shipments in the third quarter of 2014 in France, which negatively impacted our reported results last year. The absence of these reductions this year resulted in a favorable one-time comparison. This benefit combined with the negative effect of foreign exchange resulted in reported net sales growth of 3% over the nine-month period. Underlying A&P spend increased 4%, while underlying SG&A grew 9%. Both line items were a few points lower on a reported basis as foreign exchange helped our non-U.S. dollar denominated cost. Year-to-date SG&A increases have been driven in part by our route-to-market investments in France, but we expect lower full-year SG&A growth. Putting these all together, we delivered 7% year-to-date growth in underlying operating income. Foreign exchange headwinds hurt our reported operating income growth by seven points. This was due to transactional impact on net exposures and the revaluation of net current assets denominated in foreign currencies. The revaluations are captured in the $22 million negative swing in the other income and expense line item on the P&L. For the first nine months of the year, earnings per share came in at $2.54, up 4% year-over-year. Foreign exchange was an $0.18 drag on reported EPS, so year-over-year growth in EPS would have been approximately 11% excluding this impact. Moving now to my second and final topic, an update on our outlook for fiscal 2015. Today, we are reaffirming the ranges we shared with you for our full-year outlook for underlying net sales growth of 6% to 8%. Our year-to-date top line results are running slightly below the low end of this range due largely comparison issues with the prior year. Our business momentum remains robust, and we will be comping against last year's soft fourth quarter underlying sales growth of 3%, which was negatively impacted by givebacks in Poland. So, with two-year stacked sales growth running 14% in the third quarter and the expectation of easier comparison, we anticipate strong fourth quarter top line growth to pull our four years sales growth back in the 6% to 8% range. Regarding the national launch of the Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire, our teams have been hard at work and we recently began shipping our first cases to the other 42 states. Our initial read through from our eight test states has been very encouraging, with Fire continuing to index quite favorably to Honey's introduction four years ago, and we believe that the limited rollout has helped fuel consumer interest in the brand. Equally important, we believe that Fire is not only complementing Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, but is showing little sign of slowing the rate of growth for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey in the initial test market. From an earnings perspective, we expect a few cents of benefit to fiscal 2015's reported results reflecting pipeline build. Year-to-date gross margin expansion of 70 basis points has been stronger than what we expect for the full year given our expectations for higher costs in the fourth quarter related to wood for our barrel-making operations caused by growing and increased interest for bourbon. Underlying SG&A growth moderated to 6% in the third quarter as we began to lap the route-to-market change in France on January 1. We anticipate additional moderation in the fourth quarter as we lap last year's 14% growth rate. In the aggregate we expect underlying operating income growth in the fourth quarter in the teens, which should result in full-year underlying operating income growth of 9% to 11%. Not surprisingly, FX remains a headwind, so given today's spot rates, which for reference are roughly 13% weaker than 35-year average versus the dollar, we expect foreign exchange to pull down our reported EPS in the fourth quarter. We anticipate FX will hurt our full-year operating income by over $60 million and EPS by over $0.20 assuming today's spot rates. This year full-year FX impact is a nickel worse than we expected at the time of our second quarter call and a driver for our revised EPS range of $3.15 to $3.25. As a sensitivity, assuming our foreign exchange cash flow exposures collectively move 10% in either direction, our EPS over the balance of the year will be impacted by approximately $0.04. And while it's too early in our planning process to share specific guidance on fiscal 2016, we remain optimistic about our prospects for continued growth given the health of our existing business, continued category momentum, and our disciplined innovation strategy. We'll share more specifics with you on our fourth quarter call. So, in closing, we continue to deliver strong underlying growth. We attribute this outperformance to our leading portfolio of American whiskey brand led by the Jack Daniel's trademark, strong and growing geographic diversification, and premiumization opportunities for our portfolio of brands. Our business model has been built around premium brands and the efficiencies inherent in single point production, leading to high gross margins and strong free cash flow. We approach our capital deployment with a very long term view supported by the health and strength of our balance sheet. This allows us to simultaneously invest in future growth as we are actively doing today behind Jack Daniel's and our other American whiskey brands, evaluate potential acquisitions and return cash to our shareholders as we have done to the tune of almost $0.5 billion so far this fiscal year through ongoing dividend and share buyback programs. So, let me turn the call over now to Paul for his comments. Paul? Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Jane, and good morning, everyone. First, let me say that I continue to be pleased with the company's results and I want to publicly thank my Brown-Forman colleagues worldwide for again producing them. I think we had another very good quarter of underlying performance, and I would highlight that our 5% sales growth and 8% operating income growth on an underlying basis came on top of a very strong Q3 last year. So with the expectation that we will finish the year along the lines of what we've guided today, I believe we will have recorded another excellent year of underlying growth and business progress at the company. One of the things that makes our underlying results stand out in my view is that they compare quite favorably to those we observe across our industry. And this has been a consistent reality over the last many years. One of the reasons for our differential underlying performance, I believe, is that Brown-Forman is uniquely well positioned through our American whiskey leadership and our ownership of the Jack Daniel's brand, which itself gives a superb geographic breadth, diversification and continuing opportunity. In our communications with you over the years, we've discussed an aspect of American whiskey that I believe is particularly unique. It is simultaneously enjoying the desirable attributes of both mixability and premiumization. Most often in distilled spirit categories, these two dimensions are observed as mutually exclusive. If you consider the two largest multi-country categories in the spirits industry by volume, and that's Scotch and vodka, this point is made rather clearly. Within Scotch, we frequently see leading trademarks positioned very successfully at many price points spanning from standard to luxury, and each case utilizing the same trademark name at each of the price points. Within vodka, the leading trademarks have not exhibited the same vertical agility. The leading brands at each successive price tranche in vodka typically carry a different brand name. By contrast, however, vodka has shown tremendous horizontal agility, if you will, through flavored vodkas and premixed RTDs which provide consumers with a broad range of flavor options for the consuming occasion. Scotch, on the other hand, has had little success extending their trademarks along the same flavor or mixability dimension. But uniquely within American whiskey and best evidenced by our own Jack Daniel's, the category's brands have shown the ability to be successful along both of these attractive dimensions within the same trademark. Let me give you an example of this. On the mixability and flavor front, Jack Daniel's is enjoyed today in a more varied fashion than its Scotch-whiskey competition through everyday mixed drinks like Jack and Coke, premium convenience offerings like Jack Daniel's RTDs, and proprietary flavored whiskey expressions like Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and our new Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire, which is currently rolling out in the United States. At the same time that Jack Daniel's enjoys this consumption variety through its inherent mixability, the brand's reputation for crafting the finest American whiskeys is evidenced through the success of brands like Gentleman Jack and Jack Daniel's Single Barrel, two trademark expressions that have become sizeable brands in the ultra-premium American whiskey segment. In fact, these two brands figured prominently in a milestone Brown-Forman celebrated during our most recent quarter. For the first time, the combined 12-month volumes of Gentleman Jack, Jack Daniel's Single Barrel, and Woodford Reserve eclipsed 1 million cases. Beyond being our company's shining illustration of premiumization within American whiskey, these brands also represent a very valuable, ultra-premium whiskey business for Brown-Forman today given their attractive profitability, returns and growth rates. Now as nice as this 1 million case milestone is to recognize, just as exciting is the fact that the ultra-premium-plus price segment of American whiskey is still at a very early stage of development. Contrasting this price segment of American whiskey to the equivalent one in Scotch whiskey, we observed that this highest end represents only 2% to 3% of total American whiskey retail dollars, whereas the same price segment accounts for over 30% of total Scotch. So on a share of category basis alone, there is a 10- to 15-fold opportunity for the highest end of American whiskey if it can develop as ultra-premium Scotch has. And to reinforce the point in a different way, in pure retail dollar terms, because Scotch is so much larger than American whiskey, the highest end of Scotch today represents a segment that is more than 35 times the size of the American whiskey equivalent. Any way we view the data, we see this as an enormous long-term opportunity for Brown-Forman within the category that is most important to us and that we know best. So the brand-building capabilities our people have demonstrated in achieving this first 1 million case milestone will be the enabling factor as we strive for the next 1 million cases. And while my focus today has been on this one particular ultra-premium whiskey achievement, we also intend to apply these same capabilities to the significant opportunities we envision for other premium-plus brands such as Herradura, Sonoma-Cutrer and Old Forester to name just a few. The highest priority for our time and capabilities, however, will remain the responsible globalization and development of the Jack Daniel's Black Label brand as we continue to build its mixability and premiumness. Jack Daniel's Black Label is the foundation of the Jack Daniel's trademark overall as well as Brown-Forman's most meaningful growth opportunity for the foreseeable future. This concludes our prepared commentary this morning, and we're now happy to take any questions you might have.