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BF.B (BF.B)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Brown-Forman Third Quarter Fiscal 2015 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Jay Koval, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin. Jason Koval - Vice President & Director-Investor Relations: Thanks, Victoria, and good morning, everyone. I want to thank you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's third quarter 2015 earnings call. Joining me today are Paul Varga, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jane Morreau, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Brian Fitzgerald, Chief Accounting Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise. This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2015. The release can be found on our website under the section titled Investor Relations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors that you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K, Form 8-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Cowen. Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hi. Good morning. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Hi, Vivien. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hey, Vivien. Vivien Nicole Azer - Cowen & Co. LLC: So my first question has to do with the depletion trends in the quarter. It looks like they slowed a little bit, but I see that that's on a tough comp. So could you dive in a little bit more in terms of the depletion trends specifically for 3Q, please? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, Vivien. I think the way I would look at that – if you looked at our first quarter trends, I think they were a little bit softer, you're right. Q2 was a little bit stronger and Q3 is a little bit down versus Q2, but I think it's all relative to last year. So really, if you look at where we were through the first half, we were at 2%, we're still at 2%. So I don't really see a slowdown. I think it's really – can't really look at one quarter in isolation. If you will, in fact, I see improving trend, particularly in the U.S., we experienced some nice acceleration there. So I think a lot of what you're seeing is simply a difficult comps that I was referring to in my script and we also alluded to in our earnings release as it related to some buy-ins last year in Poland. But we are not seeing – I don't view it as a slowdown. You're going to see these one-off things happening when you look at quarter-to-quarters. Vivien Nicole Azer…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Faucher with JPMorgan.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Yes. Good morning. I apologize. I got a little confused in terms of the impact in France vis-à-vis the impact in Poland. Were they similar impacts? And with all of that in the most recent quarter. Is that the way we should look at that? And so that's more of a housekeeping question. And then sort of a longer-term question, Paul, you talked about being single source and that's been a huge advantage for you, allows you guys to build scale, what have you. But U.S. base manufacturing cost could provide a little bit of pressure over the next several years if we continue to see strength in the dollar. So, can you talk a little bit about how you guys are looking at that? If we do have a stronger dollar longer term, what you can do in place to offset some of the transactional FX impacts that you guys expect to face? Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. I'll tackle that while Jane considers your first question here. Yes, these are always tradeoffs, to be a single-point producer in the United States at the time of a strengthening dollar, yes, I mean it's all these tradeoffs. I will tell you it's better to be positioned at the very high end of a market versus low end when that's happening because proportionately the FX impact is less on your profits. And so I feel like net-net when you balance it all out, the efficiencies – and we've been well-served over these years – by the single point production and efficiency and, frankly, also just the importance of that home place and the imported status that's conferred to Jack Daniel's as an imported American whiskey when it leaves the shores of the United States have all…

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

That does. But does that mean that the impact would be impacting Q3 the same? Did they offset each other generally and understanding the differences between the situations. Was there a rough offset between the two countries in the third quarter specifically? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. No. And again, one was on a reported basis and one is an underlying. France did not impact our underlying results. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. The impact is...

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

It's not reported. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Right and...

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Poland... Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. And the impact in France that we've highlighted, I think if I've got it right, would be larger than the direct impact that you were citing for the underlying in Poland, don't you think. I think as it relates to – even though one is an underlying and one is in the reported that there was a significant – in terms of estimated net change and distributor inventories, there was a six-point quarterly impact on France. And I don't know, the Poland impact was six points at the underlying. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And the impact from emerging markets. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Emerging markets, yes. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's right. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Not the corporation. Yes.

John A. Faucher - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay, great. Thank you very much. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs. Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Hi, everyone. Just following up on Poland, I guess I'm curious to hear more about the underlying trends. I think, Jane, you had talked about last quarter where obviously the shipment numbers that you've been reporting has been impacted by the inventory movement, but the underlying trends were starting to improve, so just wanted to understand if that's continuing in the back half of the year. And then as it relates to the fourth quarter sales guidance, obviously, you're expecting pretty sizeable acceleration, the comps are easier but just in terms of thinking about some of the underlying trends, are you expecting any sizeable improvement in some of the markets. It sounds like maybe Tennessee Fire is adding about a couple of points to sales in terms of pipe fill. So, can you just verify that number and is there any inventory movement that we should be thinking about as it relates to the fourth quarter? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: A lot there, Judy. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I mean talk about (33:28). Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Let me talk about Poland. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, you're ready on Poland because I could answer the last one, if you wanted. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, I can start on Poland. And what we are seeing there and continue to see as it relates to the premium whiskey in the Polish market as well as Jack Daniel's from an underlying takeaway trend perspective, we see accelerating…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Jane, just two quick questions relative to the quarter. One, I think you said that underlying SG&A was up 6% in the quarter. Did you give us what underlying advertising was up or down in the quarter? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: 4% in this quarter, I believe. Hold on, let me double check that. I'm sorry.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Yes. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: It was up 4% in the quarter?

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Up 4%. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: 3%. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: 3%. I'm sorry. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: That's 3%. 4% year-to-date. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: 3%, 4% year-to-date. Yes.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Okay. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

And then second question, just I seem to recall from the 2Q earnings call that underlying sales growth was 7% and the expectation was that it had accelerated to 7% and it wouldn't move from that. So, I'm just trying to understand was the third quarter a little bit light relative to what you were expecting, or was that comment about you don't expect to get – you expect to hold that or get better, more of a comment of what you were thinking over the second half instead of specifically the third quarter. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Actually, Bryan, that's a great question, and what we were referring – what we said was with the back half, not – we weren't giving quarterly guidance, so we were saying we were expecting the back half to not – to go down, if you will, or to change. So, I think, the third quarter was largely in line with what we expected. We knew we were going to have difficult top-line comparisons to last year where we had a really strong third quarter, growing top-line 8%. So, our comment was more as it related to the back half. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Overall, I think sort of met our expectations. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I mean you can find a few of the places around the world, we would've hoped for more, but actually I think the U.S. actually surprised us on the upside a little bit from that point of view. So, but I think we're sticking to what we basically said back in – at the Q2 call as it relates to the back half.

Bryan Spillane - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Great. Thank you. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: You're welcome. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Ramey with Pivotal Research.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Management

Thanks so much. Just skipping from kind of the macro negative of FX to what seem to me to be a couple of meaningful macro positives, gas prices and travel retail. Can you talk about – I mean I do recall hearing those as negatives on the way up. Are you starting to see benefits in – perhaps on-premise or travel retail segment. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. So, we have – as I discussed a little bit earlier, mainly it was all around the U.S. but we do continue to see on-premise trends for our brands continuing, growing in the low single digit. So overall, we do think there has been – if you look back in when this deceleration began, there seems to be a correlation between when gas prices started going down. So, people perhaps, having a few extra pennies in their pockets to buy this affordable luxury, if you will. As it relates to travel retail business, we've actually had mixed results there, I think. We're seeing parts of the world doing very well, but places over in Europe, largely around Russia, our European operations because of the disruption going on in that part of the world and the number of consumers from Russia actually is a large percentage that actually purchase in the European market has been a little bit lighter than we would have had hoped for. And so, but we have seen good at certain parts – certain travel retail markets around the world, and I hope, that due to gas prices, and more affordable. But it's hard to say, I'd tell you, with FX and where people are coming from and how that may be way more than offsetting gas prices other than the consumers…

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Management

Perfect. Thanks. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Welcome. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Welcome, Tim.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Shackleton with Nomura.

Ian M. Shackleton - Nomura International Plc

Management

Yeah. Good morning. Two questions. Firstly, within the emerging markets, the commentary on Russia actually appears more positive. Now I remember you had some specific issues in Russia. Are they all now resolved now? And the second question was around the Investor Day in December, you did talk quite a bit about Scotch and Irish whiskey being attractive categories to go into. Is there any update you can provide us on that at this stage? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I can talk about Russia real quick. We are pleased with Russia in terms of the total (45:57) – they're doing pretty well. There, we had a net sales growth of around 6% I think, year-to-date through nine months versus being hurt by the devaluation of ruble. But specifically, as it relates to our ability to sell our products and reach the consumers, and have things been up there, if you will, we're very encouraged by what we've seen and so, like we're able to sell our product in the marketplace at this point in time. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Ian. And I think you are correct in your recall of our interest particularly I'd say in the – at the ultra-premium, super premium-plus segments of those particular categories. And I mean no real news to update you on other than to say we remain as excited about that as we study those marketplaces, and the continuing development of them. I mean, it's only been a couple months since we saw you in December, so I would say this, the only thing that might change is for a U.S.-based company, if you can find attractive properties in either one of those, it's even more attractive because of the currency, as I mentioned. And the detail probably from that initial comment that we really think and – I highlighted American whiskey, but we really think the premium end of whiskey is a very attractive place to play. I mean amongst the most that you can really find at, to be quite honest with you, not only within our industry, I just think it is an enormously attractive and valuable business, when you contrast it to many other industries. So, if you want to find the most attractive, then advisable investments you can make there, so we're scanning that as we – as you would expect us to.

Ian M. Shackleton - Nomura International Plc

Management

So, just going back on Russia, because there was some sort of a boycott there by – has that all gone away, if I recall correctly? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: A boycott on our product, is that what you're saying?

Ian M. Shackleton - Nomura International Plc

Management

Yeah. Yeah. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, we had... Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We had some administrative labeling things in a particular region of Russia that temporarily disrupted our sales into accounts there on Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Honey. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And it was, what was that? So, it was a very small part of Brown-Forman's total Russia business. And there's been some – I think, some generally positive administrative developments on that front. So, I would say things as it relates to type of larger question on Russia for us is just the impact of all of this on their economy, more so than what we would declare as any kind of administrative problems or trade restrictions or those kinds of things. It's really right now more of the impact on the economy.

Ian M. Shackleton - Nomura International Plc

Management

Very good. Thanks for clarifying that. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with SunTrust.

Stephanie Benjamin - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

Hi. This is actually Stephanie in for Bill. My question has to do with advertising and if you could provide either on a reported or underlining perspective more details on what you expect next quarter, particularly with the launch of Tennessee Fire. And then just kind of going off of that, what you expect in terms of kind of – or what you're seeing with your competitors in terms of what they're doing for advertising? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. So, we are spending with fourth quarter – as you know, we're at 4% year-to-date underlying increase in net sales. We are going to expand to launch the brand quite nicely in the fourth quarter. So I would expect that number to pick up a little bit from where we are on a year-to-date basis for the – so, by the end of the year, the number will be more than 4%. I hope that answers that question. And then your other question is around competitors. And I can't really answer all the questions there in terms of what they're doing. They definitely – it varies by market, varies by brand... Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And if I looked at a weighted average of our competition, we sometimes do try to study the difference between maybe their sales growth rate and their operating income growth rate as they guide. It looks to me like they – because they're – most of the industry, when you look at it, is growing at very low organic growth rate. And then when you translate to at least the way they're guiding as an operating income or EBITDA growth rate, it might be just a little bit higher, so it would appear…

Stephanie Benjamin - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Management

No, that's really helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Serotta with Evercore ISI.

Eric Adam Serotta - Evercore ISI

Management

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I'll try and keep this quick. Two questions. First, last quarter you highlighted some distributor inventory overhang that was still left from, I guess, going back in the first quarter in the U.S. and Germany. What was the impact of that reduction in the third quarter? And is that all behind us? And then the second question is in terms of how we should think about U.S. pricing going forward. Clearly, this year was one of much more constrained pricing in the U.S. following several years of robust pricing. I know you're not giving fiscal 2016 guidance yet, but conceptually, should we think about next year looking more like this year or more like previous years, somewhere in between? Any help would be greatly appreciated. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. I'll talk to the distributor inventory for Germany as well as the U.S. It is behind us. It largely came through in the third quarter. I think we had isolated about a point of impact when we talked about it in the second quarter in terms of what it was impacting our overall results. Tom, you get your third quarter because we've got another quarter underweight with less than that on the quarter in terms of the overall impact to our growth, okay? Thomas Hinrichs - Senior Vice President & President-Europe Region: Yeah. And I mean, just on pricing, I mean, we'll get more specifically what our expectations are by the time we get out our Q4 release and set new expectations for F2016. But I mean, I think, one thing that would certainly be running through all of our math is where our core concentration is, which is more at the premium end of a category that has outstanding volume metric momentum right now. And I just really believe that you can be less aggressive with pricing when you're getting the sort of consumer interest and acceptance in bourbon and American whiskey like we're seeing. The high-end of this category is growing, I mean, strong double-digits, I mean the overall category is growing in the high-single digits in the United States. And so, I mean, I think, of course, all these will vary by region and country around the world as we go along. But I think it was the right move for the company with the momentum and sort of enthusiasm we were seeing around the category volumetrically to sort of, as you say, constrain the pricing progress in the way that we did in the last year and I think we're benefiting from it. So we'll be looking at that here over the next eight weeks or so as we set our plan and give you more information on it specifically when we get into sort of F2016 guidance.

Eric Adam Serotta - Evercore ISI

Management

Great. Thanks a lot. Thomas Hinrichs - Senior Vice President & President-Europe Region: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Schmitz with Deutsche Bank.

Bill G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Hey. Good morning. I'll also try to be quick here. Can we just talk about pricing on two fronts? The first is in emerging markets, when we have to take pricing in places like Russia and some of the other markets there where currencies has been such a big impact, and do you expect any big pre-buying ahead of those price increases and maybe, directionally how high they are? And then I just have a follow-up on how you priced Tennessee Fire relative to Fireball? Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So, to talk about emerging markets, firstly, I think, I must step back for a moment. Because FX is hurting us, it doesn't necessarily mean that we're going to take the price up to the consumer and the market. So it's something that we look at on a market by market basis. So I wanted to make sure that that was clear, we aren't going to jerk our prices up and down as FX goes up and down.

Bill G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Sorry, you're not going to offset like even in Russia where you have like a 50% devaluation. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. Russia is an unusual one because this has been so significant for sure. Again, we look at these on a case by case basis and we have already went through a price increase there. And talk about buy-ins and stuff to move our needle, there hasn't been anything to move the needle that would warrant you to put something in your model as a place to (56:38) that. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. And remember we look not only at what the currency is doing in those instances, but you really are also looking at what your competition in the marketplace is doing. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Got you. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: As you can imagine, that's a pretty dynamic consideration. But it's rare for us, I mean it's sort of rare for the currency to move like this rapidly as it has in Russia. But it's unusual for us, as Jane was citing, for us to start to make pricing moves based particularly on more moderate fluctuations in currency. And then your second question related to Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire pricing philosophy.

Bill G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Yeah, like relative to Fireball and I probably should know this but I don't think Fireball advertises at all, so I mean, when you guys go out would you have roughly 100% share of voice when you launch this thing? And kind of what kind of advertising are you going to do and how are you going to build trial? Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It all depends on how you define advertising. I would say that they have an enormous presence in social media and I, today, I consider that very much advertising. So, I mean, if you're talking about television advertising on cable networks or whatever, I haven't observed any. But to the gist of your question, I think first and foremost, we priced Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire off of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. I mean, that is what's the foremost consideration and our price positioning for that, for a variety of what I consider to be very good reasons. Now, we're not ignorant of where the marketplace falls out in terms of pricing and volume metrics and all that, but we've really wanted to enter this category as the premium, also in this case super premium entrant in the cinnamon-flavor segment. And I consider that to be a pretty important part of our marketing program and something that I know our people consider very important and they'll stick to. And so far, what we've seen in our experience on Tennessee Honey with this, where they are today, lower-priced competitors and have been is that those prices have held up very well. And just to let you know, we have no internal designs or ambitions to do anything volumetrically that would compromise that price. So, we're not sending some internal ambition to be the number one brand by volume or anything else. It's really to build a responsible business that's super-premium and this particular opportunity and to, along the way, be really responsible in the way we manage the Jack Daniel's trademark. And actually, I just think our people have demonstrated the capacity to do that so well that we really don't worry about it that much. The better thing for us to focus on is these early stages of distribution in creating the awareness. And I would tell you that I don't know – we're still sort of were planning how we'll communicate on behalf of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire over this first year of its national launch. But I would expect social media just because of the importance of it to the brand's target audience but also just Jack Daniel's prominence and as a trademark and social media would be very important, Tennessee Fire as well.

Bill G. Schmitz - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you. Paul C. Varga - Co-Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Mark Swartzberg with Stifel Financial. Mark D. Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Quick technical one on the quarter, and a few on the revenue outlook. On the quarter, did I hear you, Jane, say – I don't think I heard you right, are you saying FX you think that means the EPS will actually be down in the fourth quarter? And then like I said, I have a few revenue questions. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Just to clarify, the FX will hurt us in the fourth quarter. Mark D. Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Sure. Sure. Jane C. Morreau - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: So it will result in our reported numbers from underlying because we – I said, we will be up on an underlying basis in the teens. And I'm saying, we won't be up strongly on a reported basis. That's what I was implying because of FX. Mark D. Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Right. Right. Okay. You didn't say reported down. Okay. Great. I just needed to clarify that. And then on the revenue outlook, I guess a few things. Firstly, Paul, with ad spend, it's lagging sales a bit year-to-date. Can you just update us on how that relationship you think looks for the full year and from a longer-term perspective? And then with the quarter itself, you're looking for pretty healthy acceleration, Fire is going to contribute to that, I think 9% is the minimum number to hit your full year rate of growth. Can you just talk about how you think about trade inventories in the U.S. specifically, what your attitude towards them…

Operator

Operator

Again, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.