Donald Berg
Analyst · Lauren Torres with HSBC
Thanks, Ben. Good morning, everyone. This morning, we issued our fiscal 2012 first quarter earnings release and reaffirmed our expectations for the fiscal year. In many ways, this is a continuation of the improving performance story we've been seeing over the last year or so. With this first quarter, we believe there are 4 key takeaways. First, we believe the year is off to a good start, particularly as it relates to our net sales and operating income performance. Overall, we are about where we expected to be on an underlying basis, although the mix is a bit different. Once again, our geographic diversification played an important role in our results. Our international sales grew quite well with underlying sales up 8%. Our underlying U.S. sales growth was similar at 7%. Together, they netted to a 7% organic growth rate, a notable improvement over our fiscal 2011 full year trend of 4%. For operating income, our 7% underlying growth improved compared to the fiscal 2011 growth of 6%. So in total, we continue to be pleased with this direction in our trends. A second key takeaway is that our growth continues to be fairly broad-based, especially geographically as well as from innovation. I'll expand on this more in a moment. A third takeaway is that although foreign exchange rates improved reported results for our first quarter when compared to the prior year, they are still relatively in line with the rates we used for the fiscal 2012 guidance that we provided in June. Therefore, our position within the guidance range has not shifted much due to changes in foreign exchange rates. The last key takeaway relates to our guidance. Incorporating my previous comments on foreign exchange, and considering that the quarter's performance was generally in line with expectations and given how early we are in the fiscal year, we confirmed our full year guidance of $3.45 to $3.85 per share. We also kept unchanged our underlying operating income guidance of mid- to high-single digits. Let me spend a few minutes talking about our sales performance. Starting with our international markets, Germany continued its strong growth where we believe we are benefiting from the route to consumer change made last year when we began directly selling to the trade in this important market. We also believe this particular quarter benefited some from a buy-in, in advance of an August 1 price increase. Sales in Russia were also up as we cycle against weak comparisons in the prior-year period where the business was slowed in advance of some route to consumer changes there. Brazil showed strong net sales growth due to higher realized price due to our route to consumer change last year, which enables us to capture the margin we previously paid to our outside distributor. France, the U.K. and Turkey all continued to have strong underlying trends. And if you look at our emerging markets altogether, they grew at a double-digit rate. We experienced net sales declines during the quarter in Poland due largely to a slowing premium vodka category. Spain continued to show weakness with soft consumer takeaway trends related to the difficult economic conditions. And also, we saw modest sales declines in Australia, which we believe is largely a result of competitive pricing activity in the market. Moving on to our portfolio. Our performance was led by the strong growth of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey internationally where the brand saw solid gains with Turkey, Germany and France among the strongest growers. The brand also returned to growth in the United States, where we believe we have the opportunity to further improve the brand's trends. Jack Daniel's RTDs performed very well for the quarter due to gains in Germany and Mexico, as well as geographic expansion of various expressions in the U.S., Poland, South Africa and Japan. Let me spend a little time talking about Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey. As you all know, the brand was launched in the U.S. in late March. It is off to what we believe is a great start and the results, so far, are encouraging with excellent initial reception from both the trade and consumers. This brand is playing in an exciting and emerging category within the U.S. spirits business. Internally, we've debated what we should actually call it, the flavored whiskey category, the flavored brown spirits category. But what we do agree on is that, thus far, it has been exciting for the Jack Daniel's trademark, and for the U.S. business. According to the latest Nielsen trends, in its first 4 months of sales, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey was larger than the 4-month sales for Evan Williams Honey, Wild Turkey American Honey and Red Stag combined. Nielsen data also reveals that Tennessee Honey is driving most of the growth of the Jack Daniel's trademark in the U.S. To illustrate, last year in the first quarter, the Jack Daniel's Family Nielsen takeaway for net sales was a minus 1%. Using the same Nielsen source for this year's first quarter, the Family was up over 10%. All expressions, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Gentlemen Jack and Single Barrel are all growing and have all shown acceleration in Nielsen's versus last year's first quarter. So we are encouraged by the impact the Tennessee Honey is having on the rest of the Jack Daniel's family. To date, we have seen no signs of significant cannibalization, and we believe that the brand has provided a nice halo for the rest of the Jack Daniel's portfolio. We also believe that the brand is attracting new consumers and new occasions into the franchise. Let me also provide a little more color on the strength of Jack Daniel's global performance in the quarter. The Family of Brands net sales were up double digits on an underlying basis. Some of this acceleration and growth is the result of expanding our RTD offerings, our continued geographic expansion and the initial success of Honey. Some of this performance was specific to the quarter. For example, we did experience some retail inventory builds in advance of certain price increases. There were some markets such as Russia with soft comps, and we believe we are towards the end of the initial distribution push and trial phase of Honey. Thus, over the balance of the year, we do expect some moderating trends and giveback around the world for the trademark. All of these factors have been considered in our guidance. Looking at other aspects of our portfolio, performance was mixed as gains for several brands, including Chambord Vodka, Herradura, Sonoma-Cutrer and Woodford Reserve were offset by declines in some brands including Southern Comfort, Korbel and el Jimador. As with Jack Daniel's, we are using innovation as one of the key initiatives to reverse the trends of some of the softer performers. For example, we are particularly pleased with Herradura. Last fiscal year, we introduced a new package, and performance in both the U.S. and Mexico has accelerated with the first quarter's net sales growing at double digits. For Southern Comfort, we continue to see good growth for its lime-flavor extension, and we are about to launch a pepper version in the U.S. in a partnership with Tabasco, another iconic Louisiana brand. In addition, we are introducing lime and RTD extensions into new overseas markets, and we have other plans for the future, both in terms of flavor expansions as well as additional geographic development. So in summary, we are off to a good start, our international growth continues with an 8% underlying first quarter performance, the Jack Daniel's Family of Brands performance has accelerated, and based on its first quarter performance and recognizing how early we are in the fiscal year, we are reiterating our guidance of $3.45 to $3.85 per share for the year. So with that, let me open the call for any questions.