Donald Berg
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Ben. Good morning, everyone. Today, we issued our fiscal 2011 third quarter earnings release, which included an updated guidance for the year. This morning, I'll focus my comments on three topics: First, I'll talk a bit about the continuation of our strong performance, then I'll address our recent announcement regarding the sale of Fetzer Vineyards and then finally, I'll talk about our updated guidance for the fiscal year and how you should think about our fourth quarter. As you saw in our press release, both top and bottom line underlying growth trends accelerated during our third quarter on the solid performance of the prior six months. Let's review several important takeaways from our performance to date. The first is that performance in our international markets remained strong and accelerated somewhat during the nine-month period while our U.S. performance improved. Once again, the development of our business internationally continued to drive our growth, with underlying net sales growth of 7% for the nine-month period and improvement over our first half results where our underlying net sales internationally grew 6%. International markets now account for 56% of our total reported net sales compared to 53% at the end of our last fiscal year. Our international growth remains broad-based, with strong gains in developed markets, including the U.K., Germany, France and Australia, as well as in a number of emerging markets such as Mexico, Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa. We've also grown net sales in Brazil, reflecting the benefits of our route-to-market change made earlier in the fiscal year. Geographically, we are organized around five regions and Duty Free. For the quarter, both in terms of the company's total depletions as well as for Jack Daniel's depletions, we grew in every region. Year-to-date, Jack Daniel's also grew in every region, while in terms of the company's total depletions, all regions were up except North America, where the total portfolio experienced slight depletion declines. Looking specifically at the U.S. for a moment, we believe the overall spirits environment has been improving. Syndicated data show three-month trends at or better than 12-month trends. During the same three- and 12-month periods, trading up trends also improved. Using the 750 milliliter size as a guide, brands in price segments above $20 per bottle outperformed the average. The $15 to $20 price range also grew but slower than the total market. Brands in the Value Price segment underperformed. Looking at the on-premise channel, January NABCA data would suggest that the On-Premise segment continued to be somewhat erratic on a month-to-month basis. However, the 12-month trends appear to be flat. Overall, Spirits appear to be growing about 2% to 3% in volume terms, while Value is up around 3% to 4%. Vodka, rum and tequila have been the best performing categories in terms of case growth over the last 12 months. When looking at our own performance in the U.S., we have seen some improvement in the Nielsen data for Jack Daniel's while NABCA results have been mixed. During the quarter, U.S. underlying net sales improved when compared to our first half but remained soft. Our depletions in the U.S. outpaced takeaway trends somewhat in the quarter, as some retailer restocking and buy-ins prior to price increases occurred. That said, even adjusting for these factors, Jack Daniel's grew during the quarter and our overall depletion performance has improved. Let me comment a bit on the performance of the Jack Daniel's Family of Brands, where performance remains strong and led the company's growth. Year-to-date for the family, sales have grown 9% on a reported and constant currency basis, and we saw a nice growth across the family. We are working to continue the strong momentum of the brand's franchise, and as you read in this morning's press release, we are continuing to enhance the trademark to both market expansion of the current portfolio and through innovation. In terms of market expansion, we have been expanding ready-to-drink products, along with our higher-priced expressions, into a number of markets around the world. To further capture the consumer's interest in convenience, within the next few weeks, we expect to roll out Jack Daniel's spirit-based RTDs in the U.S. And to take advantage of consumers' growing interest in flavored brown spirits, we expect to launch Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey next month. We believe both of these launches will build on the momentum of the parent brand. And while immaterial in terms of impact to our financial results this year, we are looking forward to the potential benefits these could play in our portfolio in the future. While we are very pleased with the performance of Jack Daniel's, one of our strategic aspirations over the next decade is to grow the rest of the portfolio at a faster rate than that of the Jack Daniel's family. Southern Comfort is critical to the success of this objective, and for the first nine months, the family's depletions continue to be down about 2% but this shows some improvement in the quarter when compared to the 3% decline for the first six months. While we remain disappointed with the performance of Southern Comfort, a number of our other brands have done particularly well, including el Jimador, New Mix, Herradura, Woodford Reserve, Sonoma-Cutrer and Chambord. Looking at our gross profit performance, the growth rate was in line with our underlying net sales growth at 7% for the quarter and 4% for the nine-month period. Importantly, our cost of goods increased in line with sales. While we have seen some recent cost increases, they have been offset in large part due to our hedging of our foreign purchases, as well as the benefits from increased throughput at the Jack Daniel's Distillery. For the quarter, our operating expenses on an underlying basis were up 7%, with advertising expenses up 5% and underlying SG&A up 8%. We continue to target our investments and adjust our mix of spending to areas that we believe best position the company for long-term growth. While we increased our advertising, we continue to invest in innovation and in our people, particularly as we build our selling capabilities related to our recent route-to-consumer changes. As I mentioned earlier, we have two new Jack Daniel's line extensions planned for the U.S. market over the next few weeks. Additionally, as we mentioned in the earnings release, we have more innovation planned for other brands in our portfolio such as Finlandia and Southern Comfort. The increase in SG&A expenses was primarily related to the investments we've made in our route-to-market changes this year and the incremental pension expense that we noted in June and that we expect to see through the rest of this fiscal year. Now let me move on to the second topic, our recent announcement to sell Fetzer Vineyards to Viña Concha y Toro. As we announced, we have agreed to sell the Fetzer winery, bottling facility and vineyards, as well as other Hopland, California-based wines and a facility in Paso Robles, California for a total of $238 million. As mentioned before, the sale does not include Sonoma-Cutrer or the company's long-term agency relationship with Korbel. Our decision to sell reflects our commitment to our strategic ambitions for the next decade, our evolving portfolio strategies and a continuation of our efforts to focus the time and resources of the company on what we believe are our best opportunities for growth and shareholder return. We believe Fetzer Vineyards will do well within the Concha y Toro business and we wish them well. The sale is expected to be completed in April of 2011. The effect of the gain on the sale on fiscal 2011 earnings is projected to be $0.20 to $0.30 per share. At this time, we are not providing guidance as to how the sale of these assets will affect fiscal 2012 earnings. We plan to talk about this in June within the context of our overall expectations for next year. To provide some context on size and what may be expected, in fiscal 2010, these brands contributed $156 million to net sales. Most of this business is in the United States. As part of the transition of this business, we have agreed to continue to represent the affected brands on an agency basis for up to nine months. In the U.S., we do not have a separate dedicated sales force associated with the Fetzer business. Rather than seeking significant savings in our operating costs, our intention is to refocus our U.S. sales force on higher margin, higher growth opportunities and fully support the innovation planned for the U.S. market. Moving to our final topic, fiscal 2011 guidance. We believe we are on track to deliver strong results for the year. We are raising and narrowing the range to $3.35 to $3.45 per share, excluding the gain expected from the sale of Fetzer. Let's talk a minute about foreign exchange and its impact on our earnings. We began our fiscal 2011 with exchange rates at the time were expected to negatively affect our earnings forecast by $0.15 per share. Rates have been fairly volatile throughout the year and we expect they may remain so. With our hedged positions for the rest of the year, recent rates would now indicate that the foreign currency impact to our full year EPS outlook compared to our fiscal 2010 results is currently projected to be about a $0.04 benefit. Excluding foreign exchange, the increase in guidance is primarily related to our continued international success and strong performances of the Jack Daniel's Family of Brands as well as el Jimador. Let's talk for a minute about the implication of this guidance on our fourth quarter. We expect our fourth quarter to benefit from our continued year-to-date trends and underlying net sales. In addition, we expect to see easier comparables to a year ago due to SG&A expenses related to some compensation programs incurred in last year's fourth quarter that are not anticipated to recur this year. Because of this, on both the reported and an underlying operating income basis, we expect to show a significant growth rate for the fourth quarter. In determining our EPS guidance for the rest of the year, we have maintained our full year guidance for our underlying operating income at the mid-single digit growth. With that, I will now turn the call over to Paul.