Matthew John Shattock
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Martina. Good morning. Our CFO Bob Probst and I would like to welcome you to our discussion of Beam's 2011 fourth quarter and full year results. And before we begin, please note that our presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties including those listed in the cautionary language at the end of our news release, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated. This presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measures that are reconciled to the most closely comparable GAAP measure in our news release or in the supplemental information linked to our Webcast and Presentations page on our website. 2011 was an extraordinary year for Beam. As we review our results and our outlook for the future, I'd like to emphasize 3 points which give us confidence in our ability to deliver our commitment to our shareholders. First, we launched Beam as a leading standalone spirits company with great success. We have an excellent team, a clear strategy and a strong capital structure, reflected in our recent synergy-driven acquisitions, all of which enable us to be a leader in the dynamic spirits industry. Second, even as we transitioned to a pure-play spirits company, the Beam team executed well against our growth strategy in 2011 and delivered a set of results that met or exceeded all of our 2011 targets. Our net sales increased 8% on a comparable basis, well ahead of our markets, and our adjusted pro forma diluted EPS increased 10%, and we achieved our target to convert at least 90% of our earnings into free cash flow. And third, we feel very positive about the current performance and outlook for our business. We finished 2011 with a very good fourth quarter that was slightly above our expectations, reflected in solid comparable sales growth and profit leverage. Q4 comparable sales increased 4%, despite the adverse impact of the timing of sales in Mexico and Australia, which effectively reduced sales growth by approximately 2 points. Market-beating performance for our global Power Brands, as well as new product launches, helped drive our gains in the quarter. Fourth quarter adjusted pro forma diluted EPS was up 9%. Moreover, we're encouraged by our continued momentum as we start the year and the exciting plans we have to keep outperforming in 2012. Our confidence in our prospects for 2012 is rooted in a couple of key dynamics. First, we expect to grow sales faster than our markets due to the strength of our Power Brands and Rising Stars, our pipeline of new product introductions in 2012, sustained premiumization and the continued consumer excitement around the bourbon category. And second, our earnings will benefit from our accelerated cost reductions, offsetting raw materials inflation; our competitive level of brand investment, which is now in line with sales growth; and the leverage of our fixed cost base. So we feel very good about our earnings target for 2012, which we'll discuss in greater detail later. So let me now step back and build upon these themes by describing how we are putting our growth and return strategy into action. We continue to focus on disciplined execution of a simple and effective 3-point strategy: creating famous brands, building winning markets and fueling our growth. Our Creating Famous Brands strategy is reflected in our focused resource allocation. We boosted brand investment by approximately 30% over the past 2 years, which has taken our run rate to a very competitive level. And this investment has become even more effective through increased focus. In 2011, we devoted the substantial majority of our brand investment to our Power Brands and Rising Stars. By enhancing the equity of these brands through impactful brand communication and powerful innovation, we drove very strong growth at the premium end of our portfolio in the past year. We outperformed our competitors in the spirits markets in which we compete around the world, and we positioned these brands to thrive in 2012 and beyond. In 2011, comparable sales growth for our Power Brands was up 9%, and our Rising Stars grew 42%, including very strong growth for the Skinnygirl brand. Now I'd like to mention a few of the brand-building highlights from the past year. We continue to optimize our marketing mix, including devoting about 1/3 of our advertising investment to digital media. The critically-acclaimed Bold Choice advertising campaign helped reenergized the Jim Beam franchise, including solid growth for the core Jim Beam white label. We launched the first-ever TV advertising for Maker's Mark in the U.S. in 2011, which, combined with other tools like innovation and pricing, further enhanced this brand's already strong performance. We supported both Sauza and Red Stag with targeted TV advertising in the U.K. And backed by creative brand activation, our Canadian Club RTD products approached 1 million cases in Australia, as CC continues to tap into beer occasions and take market share. New products like Skinnygirl White Cranberry Cosmo, Courvoisier Rosé and Pucker Flavored vodka brought new female consumers to our categories in very meaningful numbers. On the innovation front, 2 very successful innovations from Jim Beam, Red Stag and Devil's Cut, are also good examples of how we seek to borrow equity from the core brand and build back strength in the franchise. Jim Beam Devil's Cut is off to a tremendous start in the U.S., and we're now beginning to roll it out into more markets. Red Stag continues to grow very strongly in its third year in the U.S. and around the world. Red Stag is now sold in 22 global markets, including Germany, the world's third largest bourbon market, where it doubled our initial expectations after its 2011 launch. And our Borrow and Build mantra also works at an economic level, with both innovations benefiting from the halo of Jim Beam's overall advertising investment, while delivering higher gross margins to the core brand's P&L. Our ability to energize our markets with new products is also supported by our strong R&D capabilities, our speed to market and what we believe are the best innovation cycle times in the industry. The result in 2011 was another record year of innovation of Beam, and on the back of that, we're very excited about the new products we have lined up for 2012, including the upcoming launch of 2 new flavors for Jim Beam in the U.S. and Germany, additional flavors for the Pucker Vodka line and a bold, new cognac entrant, C by Courvoisier. And there's still more to come that we'll be discussing in the weeks and months ahead. Now as you've seen, we've brought leadership to the bourbon category through our sharp focus on brand-building and innovation, and our strength in bourbon will continue to be a key asset. Bourbon was the fastest-growing of the 5 biggest spirits categories the U.S. in 2011 according to Nielsen, growing at more than twice the rate of the total market. At the same time, bourbon's appeal also continues to expand internationally. We see 3 factors contributing to the resurgence of bourbon: innovation, premiumization and authenticity. And our bourbon strategy is effectively tapping into all 3 of these consumer dynamics. Our innovations in particular have helped revolutionize the category, bring in new consumers and build demand internationally. And we're determined to keep our foot on the accelerator in what is our core category and heartland. Finally, now that we’ve ramped up our brand investment to competitive levels, and as we continue to focus that investment on our biggest brand initiatives in our best markets, we are confident that we can deliver profit leverage with a strong overall sales momentum. Our second strategic pillar is Building Winning Markets. As promised, this quarter, we provided the financial results of our 3 segments, including Q4 and full year sales and operating income, as well as data for the prior quarter's 2011. As indicated in our news release, these results are on an adjusted pro forma basis. So let me provide a couple of overall perspectives on our regions. We apply our growth strategy in each of our 3 regions, which are empowered to leverage our global assets to their local advantage. We're delivering strong profitability with broad and balance sales growth in each, and this reinforces the fact that each of our 3 regions has a strong growth and return profile, and we're capitalizing on growth opportunities across these markets by leveraging the breadth and scale of our portfolio. As a result, we delivered excellent sales growth across all 3 regions, as comparable sales increased 8% in each. So let me unpack the dynamics of each segment. North America is our biggest region, accounting for 58% of our total 2011 sales. Naturally, the United States, the world's largest and most profitable market, accounts for the lion's share of our North America business. We're the second largest player in the U.S., which is also the world's largest bourbon market. Our North America business also includes Canada and Mexico. Canada is a growing market for us and the home of Canadian Club, while Mexico is our second biggest market for tequila, and our Sauza business is very important there. Our Building Winning Markets strategy paid off. In 2011, Beam was the #1 share gainer in the U.S. Our formidable distributor-aligned U.S. sales organization is a significant route-to-market asset for us. It's a platform that enables us to deploy a broad portfolio of Power Brands and Rising Stars that leverage our strength in the fast-growing bourbon market while also providing access to dynamic segments, such as ready-to-serve cocktails, flavored vodka and Irish whiskey. North America is also the launching pad for a lot of our innovations, many of which we then expand to additional markets. This region offers the highest structural profitability of our 3 segments with 2011 operating income margins of 29%. Europe, Middle East and Africa accounted for 22% of our 2011 sales. This region is a combination of somewhat slower growing Western European markets like Spain and the U.K., together with solid performance like Germany and fast-growing emerging markets like Russia. Looking closer at EMEA, from West to East, while Spain and the U.K. are mature markets where growth is a challenge, we leveraged the scale of our distribution joint ventures to achieve a competitive cost base. Notably, our portfolio in these countries is underpinned by strong market positions. In the U.K., Courvoisier is the #1 cognac, and Teacher’s and Sourz have significant market share. In Spain, Local Jewels, Whiskey DYC and Larios Gin anchor our portfolio. And we're excited about our prospects in Germany, the world's third biggest bourbon market. We delivered strong double-digit growth in Germany in 2011, as we’ve benefited from our innovations and our strong sales organization. And we're also seizing the opportunity to expand in Central and Eastern Europe and, of course, Russia, where we're growing Jim Beam, Sauza and Courvoisier at a strong double-digit rate. We also operate a substantial and very successful travel retail segment for both Europe and North America from EMEA. EMEA currently delivers operating margins of about 23%, and we see this region's operating margins in line with the corporate average over the long term. Asia-Pac/South America or APSA, which delivered 20% of our total sales, is anchored in Australia, our second biggest market. As the world’s #2 bourbon market, Australia has a long-standing bourbon culture with a strong bias to the ready-to-drink format and tremendous preference for Jim Beam, the market's #1 spirits brand. We've also had a lot of success capturing beer occasions with the Canadian Club RTD products, which are the fastest growing RTDs in Australia. Our presence in Australia is also underpinned by our powerful long-term distribution partnership with Coca-Cola Amatil. Our APSA region also has the greatest exposure to emerging markets, including India, where Teacher’s is the #1 scotch and where’ve we invested in our own bottling and distribution infrastructure; Brazil, where Teacher’s is #2 scotch; China, where Courvoisier is our biggest growth engine; and Southeast Asia. So let me offer a couple of comments regarding APSA's operating margins, which came in at 18% for 2011. We focused a significant brand-building investment in APSA, where we boosted by double digits our support for our Jim Beam and Canadian Club Power Brands in Australia in 2011. At the same time, as we developed the APSA region over the past year, we’ve doubled down our investment in brand-building and infrastructure in our emerging markets, such as putting more feet on the street and launching Teacher’s RTD products in India or priming markets like Brazil and China for accelerated growth. We now have a P&L profile in APSA that positions us to capitalize on attractive and profitable emerging market opportunities going forward, and as such, we look forward to OI margin improvement in APSA over time. Now as I said before, we see our global markets growing at a low- to mid-single-digit rate over the long term. Across our regions, we see growth of our North America market likely in line with our global market. The markets in our EMEA footprint are likely to grow collectively toward the lower end of that range, and our APSA footprint with its higher emerging market exposure is likely to grow towards the higher end of that range over time. Consistent with our growth algorithm we outlined on our road show, we target to outperform our market at the sales line in each of our regions. Our third strategic imperative is to Fuel Our Growth with disciplined cost management and continuous improvement in organizational effectiveness and efficiency. These efficiencies enable us to invest savings in building our brands and driving profitable growth. We aim to achieve 1% to 2% annual improvement before inflation in our cost of goods and SG&A, and we met that goal in 2011. We progressed a significant supply chain initiative in the fourth quarter, as we completed the consolidation of our U.S. bottling facilities into our expanded center of excellence in Frankfurt, Kentucky. With 5 new bottling lines, this facility alone will bottle and ship more than 10 million cases of spirit in 2012 at a lower average cost per case than in 2011. This provides us with a competitive cost base and enhanced innovation capability to address the evolving needs of consumers and customers in the dynamic North American market. In 2012, we're rolling out a new initiative across our company called One Beam Way that will bring lean techniques to core processes and help us create an even more efficient and agile organization. Productivity improvements like this and the cost savings they generate will enhance our ability to deliver profit leverage in 2012 and beyond. Now before I turn things over to Bob, a few words on our use of cash and our balance sheet. As we discussed in the past, we pursue a disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our first priority is funding our highest return internal growth opportunities, such as for our Power Brands, Rising Stars and emerging markets. We evaluate the relative returns of acquisitions with the share repurchases. More on our progress with acquisitions this year in a moment. And we returned immediate value to shareholders through an attractive dividend. As you'll recall, Beam retained the entire Fortune Brands dividend, and we're now building on it. Our board last week approved an 8% dividend increase, bringing the indicated annual rate to $0.82 per share. That represents a very competitive payout ratio in the range of 35% to 40%, while allowing us the financial flexibility to invest to create shareholder value. Now when it comes to evaluating acquisitions, we focus on synergistic high-return opportunities, where we can add value by leveraging our brand-building, supply chain and distribution capabilities to drive revenue and cost synergies and deliver strong returns. We undertook 2 such acquisitions in 2011. After the purchase of Skinnygirl cocktails in March, we've rapidly turned the brand into one of the industry's best 2011 success stories. Reflecting the advantages of our scale with agility, we expanded distribution, extended the Skinnygirl line to cover more occasions and seasons and rolled the brand out into its first international markets in just a matter of months. And we’re very excited about the acquisition of Cooley, which we completed just a couple of weeks ago. There are only 3 sources of Irish whiskey in the industry, and Cooley was the only remaining independent player. So we see these brands, distilleries and maturing inventories as unique assets with strong upside potential. Leveraging our portfolio and distribution network will expand and strengthen these brands, led by Kilbeggan, in key markets across North America and Europe. We've previously indicated that we expect this acquisition to be earnings-neutral in 2012, reflecting substantial initial brand investment, and increasingly accretive going forward. Looking at 2012, Beam enters the year with a solid financial foundation that we believe will continue to position us to use capital allocation to support long-term value creation. This is reflected in our strong balance sheet, where we ended 2011 with an adjusted pro forma net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 2.5x. We enhanced our capital structure throughout the year as we have generated attractive levels of free cash and reduced debt with the proceeds from the sale of the Golf business and the spinoff of Fortune Brands' Home & Security. Lastly, a couple of comments on our outlook on the global marketplace. As you know, spirits is a category that performs well in most economic conditions, and the market grew solidly in 2011. We estimate that the markets in which we compete globally grew at a low single-digit rate in 2011 or approximately 3%. Regarding our outlook for 2012, our current view is these markets will grow at a similar rate as 2011. That includes a few assumptions: that the U.S. market will continue to grow in the range of 3%; that trading conditions in Western Europe will remain challenging; that the market in Australia will be relatively flat; and that our emerging markets will continue to grow at a strong double-digit rate. We believe that industry value growth will be driven primarily by favorable mix, including premiumization, as we saw in 2011. And if the economy continues to improve, we could see more benefit from pricing. Our objective remains for Beam to, again, solidly outperform the market across our global footprint in 2012. Well I’ll have a few closing thoughts on our current momentum and our prospects for the year ahead, but first, here's our CFO, Bob Probst, with a closer look at performance for the fourth quarter and the full year, the factors impacting comparisons and our segment performance. Bob?