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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good morning, my name is Felicia, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fortune Brands Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Bruce Carbonari, Chairman and CEO of Fortune Brands. Sir, you may begin your conference.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
Thanks, Felicia. Good morning. Welcome to our discussion of Fortune Brands' fourth quarter and full year 2010 results. Please note that our presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those listed in the cautionary language at the end of our news release. Our actual results could differ materially from those targeted. And this presentation also includes certain non-GAAP measures that are reconciled to the most closely comparable GAAP measures in our news release or on our website in the supplemental information linked to the Webcast page. 2010 was an excellent year for Fortune Brands. We outperformed our markets. We delivered on our operational goals, and our business reemerged from the recession in very strong positions. In addition to this strong performance, we announced our intention to separate our three businesses in 2011 to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. Our determination to go on offense during the economic downturn and boost strategic investment across our businesses made a big impact in 2010. Each of our businesses continued to strengthen its competitive position throughout the year, and Fortune Brands delivered strong double-digit earnings growth. Now let's take a closer look at the numbers for the quarter and the year. Net sales for the quarter approached $1.9 billion, up 5%. Sales were up 4% on a comparable basis. That measure excludes excise taxes, foreign exchange and acquisition and divestitures. By brand group, comparable net sales were up 6% in Spirits, up 2% in Home and Security and up 10% in Golf. For the full year, sales came in at $7.1 billion, an increase of 7%. Full year comparable sales were up 5%, reflecting 5% growth in Spirits, 6% growth in Home and Security and 4% growth in Golf. Net income for the quarter was $85.4 million…
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Thanks, Bruce. We'll start with Spirits, talk about the overall market. First, we estimate the global Spirits market grew in the range of 1% to 2% on a revenue basis in 2010. The world's largest market, the U.S., was up in the range of 2%. We saw a modest return to premiumization and the beginning of a recovery in the on-premise channel. Markets in Europe improved as the year progressed, with growth in the U.K. and Germany up in the 1% to 2% range. Spain was negative but trended favorably throughout the year. Global duty-free, as well as our key emerging markets, including India, Brazil and Russia, continue to grow at healthy rates. On the downside, Australia was lower for the year, as interest rates, the Australian dollar and bad weather impacted consumer spending. Looking at our numbers for the quarter and the full year, spirits sales for the quarter came in at $818 million, up 10%. Sales in the quarter benefited from favorable FX and a change in the trading terms with a major customer in Australia related to the way we record excise taxes. On a comparable basis, sales were up 6% for the quarter. We outperformed key markets in the quarter, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Spain. For the year, sales for Beam Global approached $2.7 billion, a new record level. Our full year Spirit sales benefited from solid growth in the U.S. and Europe, double-digit growth in Brazil and India, and strong growth against easy comparisons in Mexico and global travel retail. As a result of the proactive repositioning of select brands and a challenging year for the market in Australia, price mix was somewhat lower for the year. I'd underscore here that in total, over the course of the economic downturn, our pricing…
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
Thanks, Craig, for that detail. As we look to our performance expectations in 2011, we begin with the assumption that the global economic recovery will continue to be gradual and uneven and that the markets for each of our businesses will grow at a low single-digit rate. We're determined to stay on offense in the marketplace and we're targeting that each of our businesses will continue to outperform its respective market. While we're on track to complete the proposed separation of our businesses in the second half of the year, we estimate that diluted earnings per share before charges and gains of Fortune Brands will grow at a high single-digit to a high-teens rate for the full year after the cost of the separation of the businesses. With respect to quarterly phasing, results for Fortune Brands will face the most challenging comparisons in the first half 2011. Specifically, our first half comparisons will be impacted by our very strong home and security gains in the first half of 2010, including a substantial pull forward in sales related to the expiration of the home buyers tax credit. Second, higher cost for commodities and increased investments across our businesses support new business wins and new product launches. And third, the seasonal impact of the divestiture of the Cobra business last year. Even with these factors, we believe our brands are very well positioned to outperform and set the stage for another year of strong growth. Thank you again for joining us. Now Craig and I will be happy to take any of your questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Melich with ISI.
GM
Gregory Melich
Analyst
On the CapEx side, if I remember correctly, you're expecting sort of $200 million to $220 million. It came in a little bit above that. And then the guidance for this year as well, you're $250 million. Can you just explain what the difference was there and why it's growing this year?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Yes. Let me take that. We searched a little bit at the end of the year. We had some opportunities to buy ahead on barrels for our Spirits business. We've got favorable pricing that more than offset what would be the marginal cost of incremental debt at this point and so we move forward on that. So all in all, I mean, there's nothing out of the ordinary here. As we look to this year, as you've seen, I mean were targeting to be back up around kind of the $250 million, $275 million range. And that will be taking care some level of deferred CapEx, as well as supporting our new product initiatives and other such things. But all in all, I think we're running in line with where we would expect to be overall.
GM
Gregory Melich
Analyst
So the normal's still around $250 million, maybe a little higher this year plus some deferments?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
Yes, I think that's right.
GM
Gregory Melich
Analyst
And then a second one, on the Home. Specifically, you call up several times how Windows had a pull forward. Could you help us quantify that? Was that maybe a couple of hundred bps of demand that you thought pulled forward and put some context around it?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Yes. Just a second. Let me just grab something here real quick.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
Yes, that's related to the expiration of the energy tax credit.
GM
Gregory Melich
Analyst
So I'm thinking we saw -- because a lot of moving pieces obviously in Home given last year which you're up against like what happened in the fourth quarter. So anything to help us understand? I mean, maybe there was, whatever, a dollar amount or a...
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
You know what? I put it against looking at what were our Home sales last year. I put us in the range of, let's just say, maybe 1.5% or 2%, just kind of ballpark-ing it. I'm saying in terms of benefit to fourth quarter, which will then be a negative in the first quarter.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
That's a quarter-to-quarter swing.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Todd Duvick with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
TD
Todd Duvick
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Craig, I think this is a quick question for you. With respect to the break-up plan, can you talk about what you expect to -- in terms of the bonds, do you expect all of the bonds to stay with the Beverage business? Or do you and see any of the bonds traveling?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
At present time, we don't see the bonds traveling, but we're still in the process of sorting that out. And we'll tighten in on that as we get a little further through the first quarter here. I think the important thing as we've mentioned before is an expectation that both Reminco and Spinco will have strong capital structures when we finish the separation.
TD
Todd Duvick
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
And you do expect to pay down some debt with divestiture proceeds, whether it's spin and dividend back?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Yes. Obviously, I mean, what we'll be doing is, assuming that we declare a dividend out of Spinco, then we will take those proceeds. And the expectation is we will buy back some level of the outstanding bonds. But I'd emphasize again at the moment that, that's our default position.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dennis McGill with Zelman & Associates.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Just a first question on the Home business. I just want to clarify, you guys didn't really see any pull forward from the Therma-Tru side of the business?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
No, not that much. The Therma-Tru was less driven by the energy tax credit, no. It was more of the Window business.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Yes, principally Window.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Yes, we saw a big pull forward. [indiscernible] (57:16) It is usually a fairly quiet quarter for us.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
And so for the year, when you're looking for the window of demand to be down to mid-single, how much of a hangover are we seeing here in January? How much were the sales in that business down year-over-year?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Well, we don't break out individual months. I mean, as I just outlined, our expectation is that overall, Home sales in the fourth quarter benefited maybe in the range of 1.5% to 2%. And so that obviously then becomes a negative for the first quarter.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
I guess, put another way, you'd expect that revenues would be up in the back half of the year as you kick away from that hangover?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Well, then you can't be against it in the fourth quarter though.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
They will be -- when you look at -- I mean, it is so often the case. I mean you see these aberrations between quarters. So one of the reasons why we always focus more on the full year because you've got less beta going on in terms of specific issues. But clearly, yes, I mean, our expectation would be in absolute dollars, we're going to see better sales performance in the back half. But as Bruce mentioned, when we get to the fourth quarter or under the separation plan when Spinco gets to kind of that period of time, they will be up against stronger numbers.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
More big picture on the Home. You mentioned low-single digits for the market. You guys have taken a lot of market share and talked to future markets or opportunities too. I was a little surprised with the margin guidance being just up a bit. Can you just talk to, I guess, raw materials being a big headwind there, maybe quantify the offsets to what should be pretty strong leverage?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
There's a couple of things. It's not just commodities. I'll let Craig get to the commodities in a second. But we have quite a bit of investments going on in '11, especially the front half of '11 for this new business that we've gotten. And again, we quantified it as hundreds of millions of dollars. But as you can imagine, we have to put displays out there and inventory out there and what-not. And we had to ramp up the factories, as we've already done quite a bit. So there's cost just to get those out there, which is really significant as well as the commodity cost and some others. But Craig, why don't you go ahead?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
And just to stay with Bruce's point for a moment, in the third quarter call, we had talked about the up-front costs related to the new business. And I think what we highlighted to people is that we had maybe $10 million to $15 million of incremental cost last year, with an expectation that we've got $15 million to $20 million of incremental cost related to the new business. On top of that, we've also got some additional strategic investment we're making for the longer-term positioning of the business. But staying with the new business cost, the year-over-year impact of that in the first half is going to be more dramatic because last year or here in '10, it came largely in the back half of the year. I'm answering more than you're asking here.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
I guess just closing the loop there then, what was the kind of headwind we're looking for on the Commodity side?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
The other thing is that core businesses for the third quarter as well, so add that into the investment.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Now on commodities, what I would say to you is that -- and I do just Home for a moment. Our view is that with what we're seeing for lumber and what we're seeing for copper, et cetera, et cetera, that we're looking at something that's going to be up in the kind of $35 million to $45 million range this year. And again, another important point to make, is that we ended 2010 with incremental costs that were more in the $20 million, $25 million range, more in line with what we would normally assume. But the lion's share of that came in the back half of the year. So here in the first half of the year, we're going to see a fair amount of impact to our first half results. And then coming back to your point about margins for the full year, the contributing factors for the guidance we gave are the three things: higher commodity costs, the higher costs associated with new business, and the incremental strategic spend we're putting behind the business.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
And just on the pricing side, the pull forward on the wholesale inventories, you mentioned on, I think it was on the Moen business. Does that imply that you either raise prices or there's a very good expectation for higher prices here in the first quarter?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
No, the inventory basically was not driven by price increase or promotional agenda. It was more driven by customers who wanted more inventory for the market.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
So you haven't announced any price increases in those? This is it?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Yes, it's better for them to buy forward.
DM
Dennis McGill
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
And then just lastly, what's the next milestone that we should be looking for with the spend? Is that the board vote?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
Well, the board will be approving things sequentially along the way. It's not going to be one major vote. So I think the thing that you'll be seeing is basically the filing of the Form 10, which will be a significant sign. That's for the spin. I think you've already probably heard that we have hired Morgan Stanley to work with us on the spin and the potential sale of the Golf business. So you will see the things related to that happening in the marketplace probably sooner than later. And then we have the letter filing to the IRS and all those things that will be happening in the months ahead. So those are the things that are relatively public documents, and you should be able to see how we're progressing there. But as we said before, this is going to be a second half event, just because of just the amount of filings and whatnot we have to do, plus all the separation agendas that we have to get through.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Zelman & Associates.
The other thing I'd mention is this thing is, as we've said in the press release, it's moving along at an orderly pace. We're not intending any grand announcements here related to the separation itself, other than obviously if something really significant surfaces. But our next update will likely be at the end of the first quarter when we do our first quarter results.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Lisnic with Robert W. Baird.
PL
Peter Lisnic
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
I guess first question on the free cash flow guidance. $690 million you did in 2010, $450 million to $525 million this year. And obviously, can't see the component of last year in this. But can you give me a sense as to what is driving sort of that decline, if you will, in free cash flow generation for 2011? Is it just working capital? Or is there something there that's non-recurring in 2010? Just give me a feel...
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes, the biggest item is just the proceeds from the divestiture of non-core assets, which is about $140 million, $150 million.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
So you had Cobra, you had the German brands, and you had the Cockburn.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes.
PL
Peter Lisnic
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
And you'd still be down, I guess, year-over-year and probably do the growth here...
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes, we also had 200-plus basis point drop in working capital efficiency this year, so we don't think that's repeatable.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
And I think the important thing is that we're still targeting cash conversion that's 100%-plus.
PL
Peter Lisnic
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
No, it all looks good. I just want to make sure I understand the numbers. And then in terms of the generation that you are planning on for this year, can you give us a sense now with the divestiture or spin-outs? Can you give us a sense as to what the free cash flow priorities are? It looks like you paid down some debt here in January. Is that sort of how we should think about the cash flow being applied for the rest of 2011?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes, I think for the foreseeable future. Yes, that's the right assumption.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
No, we continue to invest in the organic growth of these business. We have momentum in the marketplace in all three of these businesses. We're going to keep on fueling that. The separation is not going to change our philosophy there. We want these businesses to be fit to compete when they are out there on their own. So I think that's an important philosophy. And then beyond that, obviously, it's going to be to make sure we have a very strong capital structure for these businesses going forward.
PL
Peter Lisnic
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
And then last question, just qualitatively if you could run through by business, sort of what the puts and takes would be to achieving the low end of the forecast versus the high end, would be very useful.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Want to do that?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes, I think that -- let's just start with Spirits. Again, the guidance that we've provided is kind of the low to mid-single digits. And so I would say that the largest contributor there to the high side would be where we are with mix, as well as just sheer volume performance over the course of the year. And on the downside, it's exactly the same. I mean, as we've said, our expectation here is that we're increasing our brand investment, our strategic spend, double digits again this year, to really support where we are with our Power Brands and our Rising Stars. So to me, that's a fairly kind of tight band at the moment.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
Yes, I would say one other thing on the Spirits side, is that we had a record level of innovations in 2010 and we're going to blow that away in 2011. So we have some very interesting innovations coming out, and some of them can be a greater success than we think. We're usually pretty conservative on these, but we're going to fund them and they look pretty exciting.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
And then turning to Home where we said high single to high teens, I think that's a function of where are we actually going to be over the course of the year with what's happening with commodity prices. So we've given ourselves some bandwidth there and a bit of contingency for what may be some of the challenges associated with that. And then obviously, I mean, if we do better in the marketplace, with these new business wins, that can give us some upside as well. And then obviously, on Golf, I mean we've just basically highlighted where we're going to be. And we'll just see how the that plays out over the course of the year.
PL
Peter Lisnic
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
And then I want to go back to commodities. The $35 million to $45 million that you mentioned, that's a net number? Presumably, you've got some price increases in there in an attempt to offset some of the inflation?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Robert W. Baird.
We've got some. But at this point, given what the market conditions are, we really don't have much. We'll see how the year progresses on that front as well.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Vivien Azer with Citigroup.
VA
Vivien Azer
Analyst · Citigroup.
I was just wondering if you could drill down a little bit into your Spirits market guidance on a geographic basis. How does that break down in terms of your expectation for international versus the U.S. and then within the U.S., specifically, on- versus off-premise please.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Citigroup.
Yes, I think I'd just jump into that for a moment. I mean our expectation is that here in the U.S., that we will see market revenue growth that's probably up in the closer to the kind of three percentage kind of range, so high-twos, kind of three-ish percent. As we look to Europe, our expectation I think right now would be to stay kind of 1% to 2% there. We'll see how that plays out. As we look at Australia, we think we could see some level of recovery there in terms of kind of low single digits. But it's not clear yet because of what's going on with the flood conditions and others. And then as we look at the emerging markets, we continue to expect those are significant growth opportunities.
VA
Vivien Azer
Analyst · Citigroup.
And just a follow-up there, you guys get over 50% of your volume from the U.S. Outside of the U.S., like the emerging markets, kind of what percentages of your volume are coming from emerging markets or other key geographies?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Citigroup.
Maybe about 10%.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.
JM
Jason Marcus
Analyst · JPMorgan.
This is actually Jason Marcus in for Mike. I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about some of the initiatives regarding the share gains in the Cabinets business and how much of that is contributing to your overall growth outlook in Home and Security for 2011.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · JPMorgan.
Sure. On the Cabinet side, we basically have -- I think we talked about this before. During the downturn, we restructured ourselves to create a model that was a better quality, better service and better cost model, a distributive assembly model. So we were just settling closer to market. And that allows us to now bring to the respective circle of customers in that area a much more quicker response time and also allows us to bring them a different assortment of products. That allows us, again, now to create things like the Martha Stewart program and some of the programs were doing for Lowe's as well, which are really targeted at what I would call the new consumer -- a consumer who wants all the bells and whistles and fashions but also want to feel good about the price the they are paying for it. And we're fortunate enough to really hit these at the right time and have the flexibility in our capacity to be able to respond to potential opportunities within the home centers. We're doing the same thing with the designer group and I think you know we have a leading share with the dealer community. And they've been really excited about what we're going to bring them in '11. So these are all really targeted at who the consumer is. Now we see this consumer evolving, not only from a standpoint of economically but also demographically. You have a consumer today that -- the echo boomers who are going to more urbanize and moving to smaller rental properties and smaller condominium-type properties in a city environment. So we have products that are associated with that. We have products that are out there for those who really want to be involved in a major renovation of their kitchen, and we also have now products out there as people age. We've taken this opportunity during the downturn to continue to weave, to identify and segment the consumer differently than maybe we have in the past, and it seems like we're hitting right on the targets our customers want to offer them. And in all, very profitable opportunities, which is even more exciting. So I think that fits your question. Do you have a second part to that?
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ann Gurkin with Davenport.
AG
Ann Gurkin
Analyst · Davenport.
Bruce, I wanted to start -- just trying to better understand a comment you made. If I understood correctly, you talked about each business emerging from the downturn stronger than estimates. Yet at the same time, you all feel it's a good time for Fortune to explore the next level or step in its evolution. But my experience with the company is you all tend to make strategic changes when businesses are executing at their peak numbers or stronger numbers. Can you kind of reconcile that thought process?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Davenport.
No, I actually think of it differently. As we look at our three businesses there, they are different businesses. We've been able to capture synergy and our whole strategy was based on using the combined cash flow to build these businesses. And I think we've done that. It's a funny situation when I look at some spins. We're obviously going around. Our particular situation is that we have three very attractive businesses. And they're of a size and shape now that we can create in today's market a capital structure around them that will allow them to be not only continue to be a leader and invest in their own business, but capital structure allows them to be a consolidator in the space. I think that's a unique opportunity. And I also think we have potential shareholders that may not be in our stock for one reason or another, maybe more of a distilled spirits shareholder that's not in our stock because of the Home business, or a home shareholder who doesn't really understand the Spirits business. So the combination of all those things, we just think that the businesses are on a roll. The capital markets are right, and this will give our shareholders an opportunity to create more value going forward.
AG
Ann Gurkin
Analyst · Davenport.
And then can you share with us or can you comment at all on the level of interest you've gotten from parties in any of your segments to date since you made the announcement of the separations of the businesses?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Davenport.
We actually don't share that type of information.
AG
Ann Gurkin
Analyst · Davenport.
A question on Cabinets. You talked about comp numbers. The comp numbers you gave for cabinets, did they include Martha Stewart like the Q4 rollout?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Davenport.
The numbers we gave do include -- we had obviously kind of a limited amount of benefit because of just kind of being just early days of that rollout.
AG
Ann Gurkin
Analyst · Davenport.
And then Craig, when you talked about the outlook for the Spirits business, did that include some impact from the flood in Australia at this point?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Davenport.
Yes. But again, we'll see how that plays out. I mean, obviously, it's a pretty traumatic flood. And we've got our own estimates, but we need to see how that plays out.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.
JH
Judy Hong
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
I don't know if you've given us this number. But on the tax basis for the Golf business, can you quantify what that would be?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
No, we don't. Like everybody else, I mean, that's information we don't share.
JH
Judy Hong
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
And then on the Spirits business, Bruce, when we look back a year ago, clearly, you were talking about playing more offense and you've had a lot of innovations, but also the price mix was a little soft. And I'm wondering, as you would think about 2011 and going forward, is the strategy now shifting a little towards getting a little bit more price and mix realization? You've talked about taking some price increases on a state-by-state basis. Can you just talk about that comment?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Yes, and that's exactly right. We are looking at taking selective price increases. We're trying to build the equity of the brands. I think equity comes first before price. And I think if you go back to the '08, '09 period where we grew a little ahead of ourselves on price on certain products. So we made those adjustments, and obviously you saw the impact on the volume side here. And I think if you look over the three-year horizon, we're kind of back where the market maybe is a little better than the price mix in the market. So I think we're in a very good place. And I also think the innovations have helped us. Not only to the fact that they are more premium to the core, but also just the umbrella, in fact, they have on building equity in a particular brand. So we have to be careful and selective. I think Tequila again is one category that has a lot of -- there's just a lot of agave out there right now. So I think that's one that's going to be a little tougher price-wise. But the Bourbon category, the growth we're seeing in Bourbon globally has, I think, for the fourth quarter it outstripped Vodka. So we like that trend. And obviously if we have a pricing opportunity there, we'll take advantage of it.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
I think the point to emphasize here is that while we said that price was basically a point or two, interestingly, as Bruce outlined, I mean, we were over the course of '08 and '09 ahead of the market by 1% or 2%. So on an apples-to-apples basis over the three-year period, we're largely in line with the market. But for us, it's come on the three fronts that Bruce has somewhat outlined. I mean, it was economy, vodka, it was tequila and then it was positioning out in Australia related to the market. I mean, the bottom line is, everything we've done has been conscious and we think proactive and has us positioned where we want to be.
JH
Judy Hong
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
What's the magnitude of the price increases that you've announced at this point?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
At this point, they're modest.
JH
Judy Hong
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
And what about the competitors, are you seeing competitors follow or even leading in some instances?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Yes, I think it's less about price right now than less promotion. I think we had a Christmas season that, including ourselves and the competition, saw a lot less promotion than we did a year ago. So yes, net price rather than just price increases. I also think you see people getting their innovation engines out there and that's -- they're getting price through that which a lot of consumer products categories do. So I think it's just a combination of less promotion, innovation and then selective price increases, depending on a particular equity in a brand, or a particular category. So it's selective. It's not across-the-board.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
And we think with the premiumization that's coming back, along with what we've got already out there and coming on product innovation, that we are going to be positioned to have further benefit going forward in terms of mix.
JH
Judy Hong
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
And is the on-premise now back to growth on a more sustainable basis?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
It's coming. It's not there yet. It's not back to where it was. It's slowly, gradually coming. I think people are going out more and obviously feeling a little bit better. But I would say, it's not back to were it was, but it is up [indiscernible] (1:19:35) and the trend is in the right direction.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question from the line of David MacGregor with Longbow Research.
DM
David S. MacGregor
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Can you just update us on the percentage of the Home and Security business that you're doing with the home centers?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Yes, we're basically running at about 25% right now.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
20% to 25%, in that range.
DM
David S. MacGregor
Analyst · Longbow Research.
And I guess if you think about the combination of smaller and less-capitalized dealers going out of business and the new wins that you've had in the past year with the home centers, I guess that number goes up. And I hear you've got new innovation coming to the dealers, so that would maybe offset that a little bit. But it would seem like your home center percentage will be up a little bit year-over-year in '11 over '10. How did that influence the financial performance the segment?
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
First off, and just on the dealers side, it was important to understand -- we classify this way, I don't know if the industry does. But there are A, B, C and D dealers. What you're seeing is the season Ds are going away. The A and Bs are actually gaining share. They're the strong players and if you look in our portfolio of customers and dealers, if you will, we were very strong with A and B players geographically. So we're actually seeing them perform better than the market because again, they're having less competition in the market. So I think the portfolio you have of customers is critical there. So this is just to set that right, straight. As far as the mix between the different businesses and margins, obviously, home centers is a more challenging environment. We don't get into specifics there.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Longbow Research.
But it requires less support.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Yes, but it requires a lot less support. You're talking about one customer versus dealers which are basically have one or two show rooms or maybe three show rooms in a particular area. So they have a lot more sales coverage, a lot more customer service support as well. So the cost of doing business is less with home centers, but basically not much differential when you get down -- when you start getting down to the allocated...
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Longbow Research.
When you get down to the OI line, it's not that much different.
DM
David S. MacGregor
Analyst · Longbow Research.
And then just a final question. If you could just kind of walk us through the Home and Security business, just talk about capacity utilization rates in your various businesses, that would be helpful.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Well, the reality is, I mean, we certainly think that we're sitting with excellent capacity capability. As we highlighted in previous calls, the fact is while we were taking cost out of the business, we were very careful to maintain national footprint. And so at this point, we think that in addition to enhancing the flexibility of the supply chain, we're positioned for what maybe the ups and downs of capacity requirement. But as the capacity comes back, the first thing we'll do is add shifts. Then what we'll be doing is de-mothballing some of our equipment. And then the final phase would be potentially going out to buy some additional equipment, but we don't see the need for brick-and-mortar.
DM
David S. MacGregor
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Craig, what do you think is your revenue upside before you have to spend that kind of significant capital on additional machinery and bricks-and-mortar?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Longbow Research.
Well, I think our view right now is we can get back up to the new housing start range of $1.3 million to $1.5 million. And the repair/remodel back up around mid-single digits.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst · Longbow Research.
We'd be happy to spend that capital.
DM
David S. MacGregor
Analyst · Longbow Research.
And what would that equate to in revenues for the segment?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · Longbow Research.
I'd say high fours.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Christine Farkas with Bank of America.
CF
Christine Farkas
Analyst
Just a quick follow-up on Spirits, if I could. And I don't think Craig you called this out, but in your press release you talked about changing trading terms that boosted Spirit sales in the quarter. I'm wondering if you can give us an impact. Was that just a top line thing, just so we could gauge the impact on sales and margins there?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Yes, that's exactly what it is. Basically, what we did is where, in the past, we were selling net of the excise tax and they assumed the responsibility for those payments. We're now including it in the invoicing, and we're covering it. So it is zero impact at the OI line, and the impact in the fourth quarter was around $35 million in revenues or so.
CF
Christine Farkas
Analyst
So your comparable sales already took that out?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Yes.
CF
Christine Farkas
Analyst
And then with respect to OI, your OI guidance for the segment, what were your thoughts there, or estimates, or outlook, I guess, for commodities? Is that much of an impact?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
And are you talking about for Spirits or...
CF
Christine Farkas
Analyst
For spirits.
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
It's a minor increase. I think principally what's happening is, as you're aware, you look back kind of four years, we had somewhat higher grain cost. And so that's now rolling into the dumps that we're going to be doing this year. But it's not a meaningful number. It's not a meaningful number in the Golf business. But the primary group being impacted by commodity cost this year is Home.
CF
Christine Farkas
Analyst
And then finally on CapEx, we have a consolidated guidance number for next year. Can you give us a sense of the how that breaks down across the segments?
CO
Craig Omtvedt
Analyst
Yes. I mean, as you think about the numbers, I'd say that we're looking at Beam, that's somewhere in the range of maybe $120 million to $130 million. Home, maybe up around kind of $75 million or so. And actually, I guess, I'd raise that and say that Home could be -- no, actually it's $75 million. And then Golf, running kind of in the $50 million-ish kind of range.
OP
Operator
Operator
I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bruce Carbonari for any closing remarks.
BC
Bruce Carbonari
Analyst
Thank you again for joining us. We had an excellent year in 2010, and we look forward to an exciting year in 2011. And we will have a discussion at the end of the first quarter and we'll talk to you then in early May. Again, thank you for your time.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you for participating in today's Fortune Brands Fourth Quarter and Full Year Conference Call. This call will be available for replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard time today through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Standard time on February 8, 2011. The conference ID number for the replay is a 36152941. The number to dial for the replay is 1 (800) 642-1687 or 1 (706) 645-9291. Thank you. You may disconnect at this time.