Craig Omtvedt
Analyst · ISI
Thanks, Bruce. We'll start with Spirits, talk about the overall market. First, we estimate the global Spirits market grew in the range of 1% to 2% on a revenue basis in 2010. The world's largest market, the U.S., was up in the range of 2%. We saw a modest return to premiumization and the beginning of a recovery in the on-premise channel. Markets in Europe improved as the year progressed, with growth in the U.K. and Germany up in the 1% to 2% range. Spain was negative but trended favorably throughout the year. Global duty-free, as well as our key emerging markets, including India, Brazil and Russia, continue to grow at healthy rates. On the downside, Australia was lower for the year, as interest rates, the Australian dollar and bad weather impacted consumer spending. Looking at our numbers for the quarter and the full year, spirits sales for the quarter came in at $818 million, up 10%. Sales in the quarter benefited from favorable FX and a change in the trading terms with a major customer in Australia related to the way we record excise taxes. On a comparable basis, sales were up 6% for the quarter. We outperformed key markets in the quarter, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Spain. For the year, sales for Beam Global approached $2.7 billion, a new record level. Our full year Spirit sales benefited from solid growth in the U.S. and Europe, double-digit growth in Brazil and India, and strong growth against easy comparisons in Mexico and global travel retail. As a result of the proactive repositioning of select brands and a challenging year for the market in Australia, price mix was somewhat lower for the year. I'd underscore here that in total, over the course of the economic downturn, our pricing has run even to ahead of our markets. In our largest market here in the U.S., with market conditions improving, we've begun taking targeted state-by-state price increases. In addition, we believe our successful innovation will increasingly benefit mix moving forward. Turning to operating income. OI before charges for the quarter was $175 million, down 6%. And that reflected timing of expenses, our higher strategic investments and the divestiture of non-strategic brands. Full year OI before charges came in at $586 million, off 3%, and again principally due to our double-digit increase in strategic investments. Looking at the full year performance of our key brands, we'll now, and going forward, speak to our brands within the categories of Power Brands, Rising Stars and Local Jewels. We're doing that to better reflect our strategic approach. We'll start with our Power Brands, which as Bruce mentioned, consist of Jim Beam, Maker’s Mark, Sauza, Courvoisier, Canadian Club and Teacher's. I'd highlight, these are all million-case-or-more brands. Net sales for our Power Brands were up mid-single digits for the year, and that's in constant currency and excluding excise taxes. We drove modest growth for full year Jim Beam. Beam benefited from solid performance in the U.S., including very strong growth for the relaunched Jim Beam Black and the runaway success of Red Stag. Red Stag is an innovation grand slam, and we believe it's momentum is only just beginning. Internationally, sell-through data shows Jim Beam outperforming in Australia and Germany, the number two and number three bourbon markets. That said, the Spirits market is down in Australia as a series of interest-rate increases have significantly boosted the cost of living for our consumers, and that impacted sales of our ready-to-drink products. And now, Australia has been confronted by serious flooding in certain parts of the country that is likely to continue impacting the market in the first half of 2011. Maker’s Mark once again grew at a double-digit rate in the U.S. and in international markets. Maker’s Mark is another brand that energized the marketplace with innovations in 2010, as Maker's 46 surpassed all expectations. We expect it to continue growing in 2011. Sauza tequila regained momentum in 2010, with solid growth in both the U.S. and Mexico. Courvoisier grew strong double digits on double-digit gains in the U.K., where it's the market leader, and in duty-free as well as solid growth in the U.S. Canadian Club sales were off at a low single-digit rate for the year. Teacher's Scotch is another power brand that grew its global sales at a double-digit rate. This brand sells nearly two million cases outside the U.S. and saw a robust growth in Brazil, India, the U.K. and global duty-free. Moving on to our Rising Star brands, which consist of Hornitos Tequila, Cruzan Rum, Laphroaig Scotch, Knob Creek bourbon, EFFEN Vodka and Sourz liqueurs. These are brands that we intend to build into power brands. As such, we're investing in them to capitalize on theire excellent growth profiles and strong upside potential. Collectively, our Rising Stars grew sales at a double-digit rate. Our Local Jewels, DeKuyper, Larios, and Whisky DYC, are brands with particular strength in the single market. Collectively, these brands were off at a low single-digit rate. Sales for all other brands were flat for the year. Turning to margins, our reported 2010 margins before charges were adversely impacted by the Australia customer excise tax change I mentioned a moment ago. On an apples-to-apples basis, our full year margins came in at 22.3%, and that's in line with our target. Excluding excise taxes, full year margins were 28%. As we look to 2011, we're expecting the global market to be up at a low single-digit rate. We're targeting Beam Global to outperform the market and deliver growth in operating income before charges at a low to mid-single digit rate. And let me reinforce here that, that factors in our planned double-digit increase in brand investment to continue building sales momentum, innovating and capitalizing on our highest return market opportunities. Now turning to Home and Security, as expected, the market for our products was essentially flat for the year as low single-digit decline in the cabinetry market offset new construction spending that rose at a high single-digit rate. Spending on replace/remodel was essentially flat. In Q4, our overall market was basically flat, as gains in replace/remodel offset lower spending on cabinetry and new construction. Looking at our numbers, Home and Security sales for the quarter were $844 million, and that's up 2%. Our sales reflected continued share gains, as well as the pull forward of demand for Simonton Windows in advance of the year-end expiration of a consumer tax credit for purchases of energy-efficient windows and doors. For the full year, reported Home and Security grew sales 8% and were up 6% on a comparable basis, well ahead of the market. Operating income before charges in Home and Security came in at $53 million for the quarter, up 22%, reflecting very favorable operating leverage aided by our lower cost structures and lean supply chains. For the full year, operating income before charges was $234 million, up $95 million or 69%. We're very pleased that we levered at the high end of the range we projected three months ago as our proactive share gain and supply chain initiatives were a powerful combination that drove strong profit growth. Drilling down, sales of our kitchen and bath products were flat in the quarter as gains for Moen offset slightly lower sales for cabinetry, which faced a tough comparison due to an extra selling week in the prior year period. Sales for our cabinetry brands would've been slightly higher on a comparable basis, excluding the extra week of sales in December 2009. The rollout of new programs at home centers, including Martha Stewart Living cabinetry at the Home Depot and the new in-stock cabinetry program at Lowe's fueled strong double-digit gains in the home center channel that offset lower sales in other channels of distribution. For the full year in cabinetry, we estimate our brands outperformed the North American cabinet market by approximately eight points, with a mid-single-digit increase in sales. Our new business wins, innovative designs and excellent customer service helped drive double-digit increases in the home center channel. We also were up double digits with large builders and significantly outperformed with dealers, where we hold the market-leading position. Our market share of the fragmented North America cabinetry market has now expanded to approximately 20%. Moen benefited in the quarter from pre-year-end buy-in the wholesale channel and continued growth in Asia and Latin America. For the full year, Moen gained market share with a double-digit sales increase. Moen's growth was broad-based, including strong gains at retail driven by new products and increased shelf space. The number one faucet brand in North America also grew strongly in channels serving builders and in international markets. Looking at our advanced material brands. Simonton Windows and Therma-Tru doors, sales for the quarter were up at a high single-digit rate. Simonton sales grew double digits on strong year-end demand, fueled by expiration of the consumer tax credit for the purchase of energy-efficient home products. Simonton benefited from its industry-leading service levels that enabled the brand to produce late into December and still meet the tax credit deadline for consumers. While sales for Therma-Tru were off modestly in the quarter, the brand saw a favorable mix shift to its advanced fiberglass entry door offerings. For the full year, both Simonton and Therma-Tru gained market share, with sales that grew double digits and mid-single digits, respectively. We've also integrated our Fypon advanced materials millwork brand into our Therma-Tru operations, which we believe will create positive synergies. Finishing with our security and storage brands. Sales for the quarter were up high-single digits on gains for both Master Lock and Waterloo. Master Lock continues to grow, with particularly strong gains in the commercial safety segment and in international markets. Waterloo benefited in the quarter from the success of its new garage organization products and growth in the home center channel. For the full year, sales of our security and storage brands were up at a mid-single digit rate. Looking to our home products market for 2011, we're currently targeting the market to grow at a low single-digit rate after a flat year here in 2010. Our current assumption is that the replace/remodel market will be flat to up modestly, and that spending related to new construction will be up in the mid-teens. And also included in our estimate is an expectation that the window market, following expiration of the energy efficiency tax credit, will be down at a mid-single digit rate. We're targeting for Home and Security to significantly outperform the market again in 2011 and to deliver operating income before charges growth in the high single-digit to high-teens rate. That target includes our higher year-over-year strategic investments to support new business, new products and brand growth. On the margin front, we're targeting operating margins before charges to be up modestly in 2011, and we continue to believe that this business will approach 15% operating margins once the market fully recovers. Lastly, and again, just a reminder, that our Home and Security results will cycle against challenging comparisons in the first half which benefited from the pull forward in advance of the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit last year. We're also facing higher year-over-year raw material cost and upfront spending on new business here in 2011. Now let's look at Golf. We estimate, as expected, that worldwide spending on golf equipment grew at a low-single digit rate for the year with growth in Asian markets and relatively flat market performance in the U.S. Our reported fourth quarter sales in Golf came in at $233 million, up 3%. On a comparable basis, in constant currency and excluding Cobra, sales were up 10%. And I'd reemphasize that, up 10%. Geographically, comparable sales for Titleist and FootJoy were up at a mid-single digit rate in the U.S. and up double digits internationally, with gains in all major markets. For the full year, we reported golf sales of $1.2 billion, up 2%. On a comparable basis, sales were up 4% on strong worldwide demand for our brands and new product innovations. Geographically, our full year comparable sales for Titleist and FootJoy were up low-single digits in the U.S., outpacing the market and up high-single digits internationally. We grew double digits in Asia. And our biggest sales gains outside the U.S. came in Korea, Japan and China. Australia was our only down market due principally to adverse weather. Turning to operating income. As we discussed many times before, the seasonally small nature of the fourth quarter in Golf customarily generates a quarterly loss. In Q4, we had a loss in Golf of $24 million in OI before charges, an improvement of $2.4 million versus the prior year and better than we expected. For the full year, operating income before charges came in at $80 million, up 33%. OI reflected favorable operating leverage, favorable product mix and favorable foreign exchange. Let me also underscore that OI margins increased approximately two points, a point above our target for the year. Looking at our brand performance. Both the Titleist and FootJoy brands grew full year sales at a mid-single digit rate, with gains across all product categories. Sales of golf balls grew solidly in the quarter, and were up low-single digits for the year in constant currency. The fourth quarter benefited from our holiday personalization program and the Titleist Pro V1 closed the year as the runaway best-selling golf ball for the 10th year in a row. We also saw strong gains for the year in the Corporate Custom category. We're looking forward to the launch of the next-generation Pro V1 and Pro V1x golf ball models later this quarter. Sales of Titleist clubs grew at a double-digit rate in the quarter and for the full year. The quarter benefited from the launch of the new Titleist 910 drivers, the VG3 driver in Japan and strong year-end demand for Vokey wedges prior to the new groove restrictions. For the year, we had very strong sales of the new Titleist iron models, as well as drivers, Vokey wedges and Scotty Cameron putters. The initial response for the 910 driver has been excellent, and we're looking forward to the upcoming launch of the 910 Fairways and hybrids. FootJoy had an excellent year. The brand reinforced its industry-leading position in shoes, outerwear and gloves, driving strong sales growth in each category in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Innovations such as the new flagship ICON shoe line and the FootJoy (sic) [FJ] Sport line, helped drive a high single-digit growth increase in comparable full year sales of golf footwear. We're seeing very strong consumer response to the new FootJoy outerwear layering system. And we've just launched new DryJoy (sic) [DryJoys] Tour golf shoe here in 2011. It's already a winner on the PGA Tour, and we're seeing strong initial acceptance in the marketplace. As we look to 2011, we expect the global golf market to be up at a low single-digit rate, and we expect to outperform the market once again. At the OI line, excluding the impact of the Cobra transition, we're targeting OI before charges would be up at a double-digit rate. On a reported basis, factoring in our further investments in Asia as well as other strategic initiatives, we're targeting OI before charges to be flat. Now before turning things back to Bruce, a few additional items. Reviewing gains and charges for the quarter, we recorded a gain of $6 million or $0.04 per share related to resolution of select international tax matters. We recorded an after-tax charge of $6.8 million or $0.05 per share related to the divestiture of the nonstrategic Cockburn's Port brand. We recorded after-tax restructuring charges of $9.8 million or $0.06 per share, principally related to supply chain initiatives across our three businesses. And we also incurred $1.5 million of after-tax charges related to costs associated with the planned separation of our three businesses. With regard to our tax rate, we came in at 26.1% on a before charges gains basis, and that's within the range we told you to expect. For 2011, as a result of higher expected U.S. income, we're targeting something in the range of 27% to 28%. Turning to cash flow, as you'll recall, last quarter, we increased our target for free cash flow from a range of $525 million to $600 million to a range of $625 million to $700 million. I'm pleased to report that we generated cash flow of $690 million, which approached the top of that enhanced target range. Let me underscore that, that rate represents a cash conversion rate of more than 140%. And excluding asset sales, we converted at more than 110%. Our free cash flow reflects continued improvement in working capital management. During 2010, our working capital efficiency, excluding maturing spirits, declined 260 basis points to 17.8%. All three of our businesses contributed significantly to this improvement. Looking at 2011 free cash, we're targeting something in the range of $450 million to $525 million. We're again aiming for an earnings-to-free cash flow conversion rate of 100% or better. Lastly, with regard to further strengthening our balance sheet, here in January, we used available cash to pay off the remaining $590 million of our maturing 5 1/8% note. Including that payment, we've lowered our outstanding debt by more than $700 million over the course of 2010. That leaves us with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.5x, down from 4.8x a year ago. All in all, a very good year. Now back to Bruce.