Jerry Sweeney
Analyst · Citi. Your line is open
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for participating in our third quarter 2019 earnings call. On today's call with me, as always, are George Johnstone, our Executive VP of Operations; Dan Palazzo, our Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Tom Wirth, our Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer. Prior to beginning, certain information discussed during our call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities law. Although we believe these estimates reflected in these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, we cannot give assurance that the anticipated results will be achieved. For further information on factors that could impact our anticipated results please reference our press release, as well as our most recent annual and quarterly reports that we file with the SEC. So, looking at our business plan, we are in great shape and substantially done for 2019. So after a very brief review of our 2019 plan, I will outline our 2020 earnings guidance and our business plan. Tom will then provide a synopsis of financial results, and after that, Tom, George, Dan and I will be available to answer any questions you may have. Our business plan continues to be very straightforward, simply take advantage of great product in strong markets to lease space at increasing net effective rents by controlling capital costs, delivering positive mark to markets with strong annual rent increases. Our 2019 plan accomplished that objective, as will our 2020 business plan. We are 100% done on our speculative revenue target for '19. The leasing pipeline looking forward remains deep for our existing inventory at about 1.5 million square feet, including approximately 270,000 square feet in advanced stages of negotiations. For the third quarter, we posted strong rental rate mark to markets of 9.3% GAAP and 4.2% cash. Year-to-date, our cash same-store growth rate is 1.9%. As you may recall, we did elect last year to keep a major renovation project in our same-store pool. That project, 1676 International Drive, in Northern Virginia, is undergoing a full renovation and is currently 21% occupied. I'll touch on it a little bit later, but this project will deliver an excellent return on our invested capital. By keeping it in the same-store, however, it has had a 100-basis-point and 250-basis-point adverse impact on our 2019 and 2020 same-store growth rate. To illustrate this impact as well as the impact on our occupancy levels, we did provide a roadmap of 1676 International Drive's impact on same-store occupancy levels on page 7 of our supplemental package. Based on excellent progress so far, we've raised the bottom end of our range $0.01 to $1.41 and narrowed the top end to $1.43 for a midpoint of $1.42 per share. As outlined on Page 10 and 11 of our set, we expect both Greater Philadelphia and Austin to remain strong going into 2020, thereby generating good leasing activity, an increasing pipeline, and good leasing levels. Couple of quick notes on markets. Austin continues to benefit from tremendous corporate attraction and in-market expansion, as well as the tremendous in-migration of population. For the third quarter of 2019, asking rents increased 6.2% year-over-year, with 2.1 million square feet of absorption in the last nine months of 2019. A great way to illustrate the strength of Austin's continued strength and growth is that over the last five years, the Austin market has added over 8.4 million square feet of office space, while increasing occupancy by over 320 basis points. Philadelphia had 1 million square feet of absorption over the last year. The Trophy Class vacancy rate has been reduced to 5% from 5.3% at the end of '19, which ranks among the lowest of the top 25 largest MSAs. We've continued to grow jobs over the last year and are experiencing solid demand through the third quarter of '19, with asking rents increasing 4.4% year-over-year. Philadelphia continues to benefit from an emerging life science sector, supported by almost $1 billion in NIH funding, which ranks third nationally behind only Boston and New York City. University City receives 42% of all NIH funds allocated to the entire State of Pennsylvania. We believe our Schuylkill Yards development is well positioned to take advantage of this growth acceleration. In fact, Philadelphia was in the news recently when the CEO of Johnson & Johnson said that Philadelphia has the potential to be the Silicon Valley of the health care sector. The comprehensive redevelopment of 1676 is on time, on budget. We have about a 236,000 square feet of vacant space. Our current pipeline is almost 900,000 square feet, which is up significantly since our July call. We are under letter of intent and in advanced lease negotiations on approximately 111,000 square feet. Rent levels we believe will be in the mid $40s [ph], representing about a 15% increase over expiring rents. The projections still reflect that we'll realize a return on incremental capital of over 20% and will stabilize that property at about a 9% yield on aggregate new basis. Turning to the balance sheet and Tom will touch on this, we did take advantage of the public debt markets to raise $215 million of unsecured bonds at an average rate of 3%, and an average term of 7.5 years. This financing improves our liquidity. We now have full availability under our $600 million line of credit, and we also lowered our overall cost of debt and extended our maturity schedule. So, with that overview of the excellent backdrop of 2019, we also announced our 2020 business plan along with related earnings guidance. The 2020 plan is headlined by two operating metrics that demonstrate excellent future growth potential. Our cash mark-to-market range is between 8% and 10% and our GAAP mark-to-market range is between 17% and 19%. We anticipate that for 2020, all of our regions will post positive mark-to-market results on both a cash and GAAP basis. Also, from a forward growth perspective, our major 2020 rollovers create significant upside due to tremendous mark-to-markets. Our SHI rollover in Austin is a 20% cash and a 28% GAAP mark-to-market. Macquarie in Philadelphia is an 18% cash and a 22% GAAP, and Reliance also in Philadelphia is a 20% cash and a 24% GAAP. So, our GAAP same-store growth rate of 2.4% is driven by Philadelphia at 4.5% and the Pennsylvania suburbs at just shy of 7%. Obviously, due to the rollovers taking place Met DC and Austin will be slightly negative due to those rolls. As I noted earlier, our same-store forecast, due to the inclusion of 1676, we don't believe reflects the strength of our overall portfolio. And as we noted on that schedule, without the inclusion of this property, our 2020 cash same-store range would be 2.5% to 4.5%, which we think is pretty solid. Other key operating highlights: spec revenue of $31 million, already 50% achieved; occupancy levels will close out between 94% and 95%; and we will also be 95% to 96% leased by year-end '20. Including the roll out of Macquarie of 150,000 square feet in July, we do project a retention rate of 65%. Capital, which is a key focus of ours will run about 14% of revenues, which is consistent with our 2019 run rate. We do project growing FFO up 3% at the midpoint and our debt to EBITDA range we project at year end will be between 6.1 times and 6.3 times. CAD will range between 71% and 78% and is down slightly from our 2019 range. That decrease is primarily attributable to the capital and free rent to the anticipated backfill of 1676 International Drive, where we are projecting absorbing a number of square feet within 12 months of that space being vacated. Just to amplify a couple of vacancies' impact on '20, at 1676 we are projecting about 200,000 square feet of lease-up at a cash mark-to-market of 14.7% and about $3 million of GAAP revenue as part of our 2020 plan. On the SHI roll in Austin, we're projecting about 148,000 square feet of absorption at a cash mark-to-market of just shy of 20%. 40% of that square footage has already been executed, and we anticipate generating a couple of million dollars of revenue on a GAAP basis from that SHI re-lease. Macquarie, we have no GAAP and no cash revenue in our 2020 as a result of that mid-year roll out. Just to further amplify that $5 million of revenue coming out of 1676 and SHI is GAAP revenue and not cash. So the upshot is, our 2020 operating forecast grows FFO 3%, keeps our balance sheet strong, deploys some capital into development, keeps our capital ratios on track with excellent cash and GAAP mark-to-markets. To spend a few minutes on development and investments, when we do look at the development landscape and the investment side of our business, we do recognize that there is a lot of uncertainty in the macro environment that could impact the near-term economic outlook. If you think back, our goal for 2019 was really to get all of our targeted development projects in a full go-mode with all approvals, design development and marketing programs fully in place. As we are closing out '19, we feel we've accomplished that objective, but looking forward to 2020 and '21, assuming continuation of the demand drivers that we're seeing and continued strong market conditions, we do plan on placing more land into active development. As such, our 2020 plan includes two targeted development starts. And our development pipeline can really be classified in to two components: our near-term production level assets and our long-term mixed use master plan developments. Our production level assets can be completed within four to six quarters, they cost between $40 million and $70 million and range in size between 100,000 square feet and a 165,000 square feet. The cash yields on all these projects are targeted around 8%. These assets are Four Points and Garza in Austin, and 650 Park Avenue and 155 King of Prussia Road in Pennsylvania. On these projects, we have a combined prospect list aggregating almost 2 million square feet. Each of these projects are ready to go, pending pre-leasing. As I mentioned, we have two starts build into our 2020 plan. Just a quick note on a couple of projects we have under existing development. 405 Colorado, continues on schedule and on budget. We're now 45% leased. We anticipate that project will generate about an 8.5% yield on cost and the schedule holds with it 4Q '20 completion and stabilization by 2021. The Bulletin Building is under renovation. That work will be done by the second quarter of 2020 and as we've noted, that building is -- the office component is fully leased to Spark Therapeutics. And we're actively leasing the first floor's retail space. And looking at our master plan mixed-use projects which are Schuylkill Yards and Broadmoor, we did update a disclosure within the supplemental package on pages 15 and 16 to provide a lot more information on those projects. So a couple of quick highlights on each. On Schuylkill Yards, full master plan approvals are completely in place. The design development is substantially complete on the first two buildings. Final pricing on those buildings is underway. Marketing efforts continue with a pipeline still around 1.5 million square feet, including significant interest from life science tenant. We are in very active discussions with joint-venture financing sources on it to provide equity for the project. Our existing investment base aggregating approximately $90 million will be sufficient to meet our equity requirements in the contemplated equity joint venture structures on those projects at our targeted 35% hold. So no additional cash requirements are anticipated on our Schuylkill Yards starts. Prior to starting either tower, we will have final construction pricing locked down and all equity and debt financing committed and announced as part of any start announcement. Given our read on the residential market, we could be assuming the above conditions are met in a position to go on the West Tower in the next couple of quarters. The East Tower, which is predominantly office and a potential life science component, does require an active tenant, as well as having those cost and financing conditions met prior to any start. A final point worth noting that you'll see on the page in the supplemental is that our Schuylkill Yards master plan can accommodate almost 2 million square feet of life science space. Given the strong demand drivers we're seeing in that sector, we have also commenced the design development process for a 400,000 square foot dedicated life science building that could commence construction very late in 2020, or early '21, in a joint venture with our life science partner. On Broadmoor, which is framed out on page 16, again, all approvals are done. I do want to highlight that we can build about 2.7 million square feet of space and over 800 apartments with the existing buildings in place and we are into full planning and costing on three blocks with marketing launches attendant there too, which I detailed the component parts of that on page 16. All three blocks could be in a position to start by mid-year '20, again, assuming favorable market and financing conditions stay in place. Discussions on the train station, public stay sequencing and retail hospitality initiatives are all continuing at an excellent pace. We have one acquisition program for 2020, which is part of the previously announced transaction with Penn Medicine. We have a 160,000 square foot building in Radnor that we plan on purchasing later in the year. We do anticipate placing that building into redevelopment upon acquisition. Excluding the committed spend we already have in our 2020 plans for 405 Colorado, the Bulletin Building and few other items, as Tom will outline, our plan does include $50 million of incremental spend in '20 on our two projected development starts. To finance these opportunities, we will be evaluating well-timed asset sales, looking at several of our joint ventures to harvest profit, generate liquidity and reduce debt attribution. We are also evaluating several value-add opportunities. And as we did in 2018 and have done in 2019, we expect any deployment to be relatively earnings neutral and accelerate bottom line cash flow growth. So to close out, 2019 plan is essentially wrapped up. Our focus is now on our 2020 plan and we're delighted that the bottom line results is strong effective rent growth, a growth in FFO and a continued solid balance sheet performance. At this point, I'll turn it over to Tom to review our financial results.