Jerry Sweeney
Analyst · Citi. Your line is now open
Shelby, thank you very much. Good morning everyone and thank you all for participating in our third quarter 2018 earnings call. On today's call - today with me are George Johnstone, our Executive Vice President of Operations; Dan Palazzo, our Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Tom Wirth, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Prior to beginning, certain information discussed during our call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities law. Although we believe estimates reflected in these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, we cannot give assurance that the anticipated results will be achieved. For further information on factors that could impact our anticipated results, please reference our press release, as well as our most recent annual and quarterly reports that we filed with the SEC. So we had a very productive, fairly now going into the fourth quarter, and as part of our third quarter earnings release and 2019 earnings guidance, we also announced two significant transactions that changed our company's growth trajectory. By way of background, over the last several years we've been on a track to improve our growth profile, control capital cost, create value driving long-term mixed-use development opportunities, and effectively manage our balance sheet. Now the consequence, we substantially limited revenue contributions from slow growth markets like New Jersey, Richmond, the fringes of the Pennsylvania Suburbs and all Toll Road properties in Northern Virginia. In the process we reduced our same-store properties, improved our capital ratios, grown cash flow and strengthened targets submarket positioning. That process has resulted in about a 24% increase in our same-store net effective rents over the last several years. We were also as part of our 2019 business plan anticipated about a 5% growth in net effective rents over 2018 levels. So we believe that the announced Northern Virginia, Austin revenue swap builds on that track record and accomplishes the following key objectives. First, it increases our revenue contribution from Austin on a wholly-owned base from 5% to 18% of overall revenues, it transfers revenues from a somewhat with an average 2018 minus 3% cash, plus 3% GAAP mark-to-market and moves that into Austin where the mark-to-market on a cash and GAAP basis have been 10% and 16% respectively in 2018. It also moves our tenant improvement in commission dollars from a market with a close to 20% average capital ratio to Austin where we have an average 2018 capital metric of 12%. It does reduce our DC mid-operations to 8% of total company revenues. And I think from our perspective, the Toll Road quarter has good long-term growth potential, hence our desire to stay engaged but our wholly owned focus will really be on our Tysons corner portfolio, the development parcels, and a couple of redevelopment candidates while one of which is in Herndon. It's a market though that's characterized by slower than Austin growth rates and higher concession costs. So our retained 15% stake in the Nova assets results in a much better return on our invested capital by creating a different capital stake in a promote structure. By way of example, through this transaction we will be increasing our return on invested capital from the low single digits to the high double digits over the next several years and over 10% including our fee revenue. We have found that assets in these slower growth markets can deliver the best value through a non-core capital structure as evidenced by the 25% plus return we’re currently realizing on our investment of $25 million in the NAV portfolio. We did on Pages 5 and 6 of the supplemental package framed out more details of each of these transactions and we’re really are pleased to have delivered such a great rate of return to our shareholders and DRA, and we thank DRA for their great partnership. And we're also delighted to launch our partnership with Rockpoint where our 15% stake will be our retained interests with a promote structure and we'll provide property level services. We have signaled all of you that proceeds from the asset sales will be deployed to create earnings momentum and maintain balance sheet neutrality, and we believe that the structure of these transactions are consistent with that approach. So with that important revenue shift as a key backdrop, we're also announcing 2019 earnings, key highlights, FFO growth which is adjusted for the accounting policy changes that when some analysts estimates and Tom will talk about the FFO growth rate of 5% at the midpoint. Our CAD growth rate again adjusting for the accounting policy changes of about 2% which does interestingly bring our two year average annual growth rate on CAD to the top end of our 2018 to 2021 business plan range as outlined on Page 8 of the sup. Cash sales to NOI growth will be a midpoint of 2% which does not include the performance of any of these DRA assets that are going out wholly-owned. Stake revenue of $31 million is already 65% achieved which is an improvement over the last year's levels at this time. Occupancy will be between 94% and 95% by year-end with leasing levels at 100 basis points above that at 95% to 96%. We do anticipate a below average retention of 57% primarily driven by our KPMG at this state of move-out. Our cash mark-to-market will be between 2% and 4%, GAAP mark-to-market will remain in a high single digits between 8% and 10%, and capital will run about 14% of revenues up slightly from our 12% in 2018 but 2018 was at that level primarily due to a large no capital renewal. Debt to EBITDA which Tom will touch on the range between 6.0 to 6.3 really depending upon the level of and the financing plans for development starts that we anticipate in 2019. So the up-charge in 2019 forecast grows FFO, grows CAD, keeps the balance sheet strong, our capital ratios remain on track with strong mark-to-market. The 2% same-store midpoint is at the bottom of our long-term range, so we'll remain focused on trying to improve that during the course of the year. We also do expect at least one development story in 2019. So with that 2019 overview, just a couple of moments on our 2018 business plan which is totally on track and all of our metrics with the exception of those requiring adjustment due to the DRA and Rockpoint transactions are on track. Some specific data points. We ended the quarter at 93% occupied, and 95% leased. Mark-to-market on a GAAP basis very solid 11.4% and 14.4% for the year both in access of our target range. And our mark-to-market on a cash basis was also above the upper end of our range. Retention 75% ahead of our targeted 67% range for the year and as we anticipated and we’ve talked about on a couple of previous calls, our same-store numbers for the quarter were almost 14% on a cash basis and 3.4% on a GAAP basis and that did include the addition of some of those other assets coming in to the same-store for this quarter. Leasing capital remains well within our targeted range of 10% to 15% with a 12% hosting for the quarter. As a result of the transactions that we anticipate closing in the fourth quarter and given the continued progress in our 2018 business plan, we did narrow our 2018 FFO guidance to a range of 1.36 to 1.40 per share. Couple of moments on development, the land bank remains within our targeted 3% to 4% of assets. Development capacity remains about 15 million square feet with about 50% of that square footage being targeted for office, life science and related spaces with the balance being mixed use. Our Broadmoor complex in Austin and Schuylkill Yards in Philadelphia provide an outstanding opportunity for us to grow our earnings base significantly by effectively executing these multiyear master plan developments obviously as warranted by real estate and capital market conditions. We did outline our development activities on Pages 15 to 17 of the supplemental package. Pipeline right now stands at 832,000 square feet with a total cost of $271 million of which $105 million remains unfunded. Bottom line we’re 93% leased with an average yield a cash yield on cost of 9.2%. Couple of projects specifics, 500 North Gulph Road has turned out to be an outstanding renovation success story. Project will be completed and stabilized by the end of this year. Cost is slightly less than $30 million will generate a projected 9.3% initial return on cost and will generate an average return just shy of 13% on a cash basis over the tenants lease term. At Garza, which is our mixed use development in Southwest Austin, we have generated almost $31 million of land sale proceeds and recognized a $2.8 million land gain. We are underway on our 250,000 square foot build to suite for FHI. That building will be delivered by year-end 2019 and we do anticipate earning development fees approximating $2.6 million over the next six quarters. In addition at Garza we have another land site that can do 150,000 square foot office building. We are heavily into the design development process and based on market activity plan to be in a position to start that building by year-end 2019. Similar story at Four Points, our other development underway in Austin. 165,000 square foot building, 100% leased, we anticipate delivering that project in the first quarter of 2019 at a projected 8.5% return on cost. Similarly we have a 175,000 square foot building at Four Points and like Garza based on market conditions could be in a position to start that by year-end 2019. Broadmoor we pretty much wrapped our 906 renovation. That project is 96% leased with an initial cash return on cost of just below 10%. Four or five Colorado in downtown Austin is ready to go, construction pricing is just about finalized, active marketing is underway. The pipeline is excellent and building and we do plan on breaking ground there once we secure prerelease. We're targeting 8.5% cash return on cost on an estimated budget of the $110 million. During the quarter we also completed construction of our second building for Subaru of America. They took occupancy in that building a couple of months ago and will be purchasing the building during the fourth quarter. We expect to record a $3.5 million gain at closing. Our total profit thus far at Knights Crossing development in Camden has been over $13 million. Design development for Schuylkill Yards, stage one is well under way. We're valuing the final product mix and also actively exploring a range of equity financing alternatives. The objective remains as we mentioned in the last call, which is to finalize the design, identify a tenant pipeline, select equity financing partners, and then commence on the start of the first project hopefully by the end of 2019. Master plan related work is underway and done as of last quarter Broadmoor, we're now into the site planning process for Phase 1, which will consist of office, multi-family. And if all goes well and subject to market conditions, we could be in a position to also start Phase 1 by year end 2019. Since resting on a Broadmoor with our baseline approvals in place now for an incremental 5 million square feet with an investment base per square foot of less than $2 per buildable foot, we have tremendous embedded equity value in that land holding and are frankly quite pleased with the level of interest we're seeing from both tenants and potential partners. Before I wrap up, but couple of escalation points in the 2019 forecast. We are expecting as I mentioned, below average retention rate of 57%, primarily driven by KPMG in the fourth quarter of 2019. The blended GAAP mark-to-market will be between 8% to 10% and cash mark-to-market between 2% and 4%, same store numbers again will be between 1% to 3% on a cash basis. We do expect our leasing capital to be around 14% of revenues, we're not programming any further acquisition or sales activity during 2019, and as we identified in the supplemental package we do anticipate at least one development start in a range between $50 million to $110 million occurring during the course of the year. So, with that let me turn it over to George for an overview of third quarter operations and some color on our 2019 business plans.