Peter Estlin
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Antony, and good morning. Today, I'm going to run through the results for the first 9 months of the year. In reviewing our financial performance, our focus has been on both earnings generation and increasing our capital strength. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in the capital market, underlying business performance across the group remains resilient, for example, in our retail and Corporate Banking franchises. And we continue to maintain or strengthen our competitive positions. On earnings generation, adjusted profit before tax is down GBP 1.2 billion to GBP 5 billion. Group income is down by just under GBP 1 billion, driven largely by lower income in Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities, including GBP 317 million lower income following accelerated reduction at Exit Quadrant assets, and lower income in Head Office. Impairments have continued to improve, albeit with expected increases in loan loss rates in our retail businesses, more than offset by improvements in wholesale. Costs remain on plan. Excluding Transform charges of GBP 741 million, we've reduced operating expenses by 3%. On capital, our financial strengths remains a central focus as we have continued to make progress in building our capital position. We completed our Rights Issue, raising GBP 5.8 billion of equity in October, and we've made good progress in reducing RWAs on both CRD III and CRD IV bases. We have also made initial progress in reducing our CRD IV leverage exposure, which Tushar will discuss shortly. Turning now to our profitability over the first 9 months of the year. As usual, we're using adjusted numbers because they give a better understanding of business performance. And again, we've not adjusted for Transform charges, but we'll call out the effects of these costs on key performance metrics. In general, our comments compare the first 9 months of this year with the same period last year. I've already mentioned the decline in adjusted income, improvement in impairments and lower operating costs, excluding Transform charges. I would just add that the significant improvement in statutory profit before tax is because of a large favorable move in owned credits, which we adjust out. Own credits is a charge of GBP 125 million this year in contrast to GBP 4 billion last year. The other adjusting items relate to the conduct provisions we took at the half year. On PPI, unutilized provision at the 30th of September was close to GBP 1.3 billion, and our swaps redressed a similar amount. Utilization of these provisions in Q3 was GBP 387 million and GBP 56 million, respectively, in line with expectations. The decline in profits resulted in a decrease in our return on equity from 9.7% to 7.1%. This is partly the result of Transform actions designed to help us achieve our 2015 financial target. Without the Transform charges, return on equity would have been 8.4%. The group's cost-to-income ratio increased from 62% to 66%, although remained flat at 62% excluding Transform charges. And we remain on track to reaching a mid 50s cost-to-income ratio in 2015. Adjusted earnings per share decreased to 21.9p, primarily as the result of lower attributable profit. We announced a cash dividend for the third quarter of 1p, making 3p year-to-date. And we reaffirm our dividend commitment as set out in the Rights Issue prospectus. Turning now to performance by business. In U.K. RBB, profits improved 3% to GBP 983 million as income growth was partly offset by an increase in impairments from the very low levels of 2012, which included provision releases. We have had significant volume growth year-on-year in a number of areas, notably in the mortgage book. And in the quarter, interest margins improved 5 basis points. In Europe RBB, the loss increased by GBP 586 million to GBP 815 million. This included cost to achieve Transform of GBP 357 million as we reduced headcount and closed distribution points. New business activity was modest, focused only on our mass-affluent target customer base. Profits in Africa RBB increased 59% to GBP 344 million. This increase was mainly due to lower credits impairment provisions in the South African home loans recovery book. Reported income was down 10%, although constant currency income increased 3%. Barclaycard grew profits 2% to GBP 1.2 billion, supported by net lending growth across the business, which drove an 11% increase in income. And in the quarter, interest margins improved 15 basis points. I'll cover the Investment Bank separately in a moment. In the corporate bank, we have made strong progress, with profit up 70% to GBP 678 million, driven by significantly lower impairments across all regions and 6% income growth in the U.K. Wealth and Investment Management profits decreased to GBP 54 million, largely as a result of Transform charges and higher credits impairment. The loss in Head Office of GBP 292 million reflects the non-recurrence of one-off gains from hedges of employees share awards in 2012 and the residual net interest expense from treasury operations. Looking at the net interest income and margins across the group. Total interest -- net interest income was down 4% to GBP 8.5 billion, reflecting lower net interest income in Head Office and Investment Banking, and lower contribution from the structural hedge. Across the group, this was more than offset by higher customer income. As you know, we calculate our net interest margin across our retail, Corporate Banking and wealth businesses. Average customer assets for these businesses were up 3%, and average customer liabilities were up 14%, as overall volume growth offset an 8 basis point decline in the net interest margin to 177 basis points. Customer margins fell 3 basis points, and there was a 5 basis point decline in the noncustomer margin as a result of lower contribution from the structural hedges. In comparison to Q2, our Q3 net interest margin has improved 3 basis points, driven by an increase in the customer margin and a broadly stable contribution from our structural hedges. We continued to support the U.K. economy with a further GBP 24 billion this quarter of eligible lending under the Funding for Lending Scheme. More specifically, our U.K. mortgage books have grown 8.1% year-on-year to GBP 121.6 billion, although we note more recent increased competition for new business. As you know, we were one of the first banks to launch eligible products earlier this year under the Help to Buy equity scheme. And more recently, we were pleased to confirm our participation in the Help to Buy guarantee scheme. Given the scale of contribution from the Investment Bank, I'd like to take you through our overall performance in more detail before coming back to group impairments and cost trends. Total income in the Investment Bank was down GBP 600 million to GBP 8.6 billion. This was largely driven by a decline in FICC income arising mostly in Q3, offset by good income growth in Equities and IBD. Impairment was flat at GBP 200 million, and we reduced costs by 7% to GBP 5.4 billion. This excludes the Transform restructuring charge of GBP 175 million, as we reduced the size of our Equities and Investment Banking operations in Asia and in Europe in Q1 this year. Reduction in operating expenses generated by cost savings were partially offset by GBP 257 million of infrastructure improvements. These include investments to meet various regulatory requirements. Including Transform, the cost-to-income ratio increased from 63% to 65% despite cost reductions as a result of the decline in income. The compensation-to-income ratio rose to 41%. Excluding Transform charges, this was 40%. With the income environment had been subdued, we have continued to make progress on reducing our risk-weighted assets and capital employed in the Investment Bank. Our CRD III RWAs have been reduced from GBP 180 billion to GBP 157 billion, and our CRD IV estimates at the 30th of September was down to GBP 234 billion. Taking a more detailed look at our quarterly income progression in the Investment Bank. Total income of GBP 2.1 billion in Q3 was down 22% on a strong third quarter last year. This appears to be broadly in line with what we are seeing from several competitors following subdued markets in Q3. Breaking the quarterly income progression down further. FICC income decreased by GBP 735 million year-on-year to GBP 940 million in a tough quarter for the FICC markets, generally, following comments in late June about the cessation of QE program. We saw the benefits of the greater balance we now have in our Investment Bank as the decline was partially offset by growth in Equities and Prime Services, which was up GBP 122 million to GBP 645 million, reflecting market share gains with volumes decreased year-on-year; and Investment Banking income, which was up GBP 32 million at GBP 525 million. Within FICC, both Macro and Credit Products declined Q3-on-Q3 by 37% and 31%, respectively. And excluding the income reduction from Exit Quadrant assets, overall fixed income declined 34%, largely reflecting lower market volumes as more broadly observed. Within Macro Products, rates declined, reflecting the effects of central bank comments on tapering of QE program. Credit was impacted by a disappointing performance in securitized products. Although excluding these, credit was up 6% Q3-on-Q3. We accelerated Exit Quadrant asset reductions during the year, resulting in GBP 317 million of lower income year-to-date. In the comparative figures for Q3 last year, we had a strong performance from these assets, but the rally in structured credits fed into our income line, particularly with the implementation of IFRS 10. As opportunity arose this year, we took advantage to accelerate the sell-down of our Exit Quadrant assets, foregoing slightly more income than expected but at prices in line with marks. This has contributed to a 50% reduction in Exit Quadrant CRD IV RWAs to GBP 40 billion as of the 30th of September, substantially towards our 2015 target. We continued to see the benefits of the investment we have made in our franchise with a strong performance in Equities, with income up 26% following the buildout of this business. In the U.K., we won 3 new corporate broking mandates in the last 2 months alone, and we are now a top 5 corporate broker for FTSE 100 companies with 17 clients. Our Investment Banking business is making good progress too, with significant highlights in the quarter including the Verizon transaction where we acted as financial advisor, committed our balance sheet on the USD 61 billion bridge facility and book-run the subsequent USD 49 billion bond offering, showing the breadth and strength of our franchise. And we feel encouraged by the strong pipeline we have in Investment Banking as we look ahead. Returning back to group results and impairment trends. Impairment for the 9 months improved 6% to GBP 2.4 billion, with significantly lower charges in Corporate Banking and Africa RBB, driven by ongoing actions to reduce exposure in Europe, and lower charges in the South African home loans recovery book as a result of initiatives undertaken in the prior year. This more than offset increases in other retail businesses and wealth. U.K. RBB impairments increased to GBP 259 million, mainly due to the non-recurrence of 2012 provision releases in unsecured lending and mortgages. In Europe RBB, charges were up 14% to GBP 209 million, partly due to movements in exchange rates but also a deterioration in recoveries, mainly in relation to Exit Quadrant assets, which accounted for GBP 154 million of the charge. Impairment increases in Barclaycard were as expected and were due to portfolio growth, including acquisitions, as well as the non-recurrence of provision releases in 2012. Loan loss rates in the U.K. and U.S. were broadly stable. In South Africa, they increased, partly due to the Edcon acquisition at the start of 2013. The performance of our major credit portfolio continues to be resilient despite the macroeconomic environment. Turning now to costs, a key element of the Transform program. Overall, costs were on plan, increasing 2% to GBP 14.1 billion. Excluding Transform charges of GBP 741 million, operating expenses were down 3%. There is some seasonality in our cost base, for example, the bank levy in Q4, which we expect to be in the region of GBP 520 million to GBP 540 million. We continued to see a downward trend in costs each quarter against the previous year, and we expect to see this decline further in 2014 as more Transform actions kick in. As Antony has said, we're on track to achieve our cost target through the Transform program. And just to remind you of the flight path for the Transform charges we announced at our interim results: GBP 1.2 billion this year, GBP 1 billion next year, GBP 0.5 billion in 2015, resulting in an underlying cost base of GBP 16.8 billion in 2015. At this point, we still anticipate a further GBP 450 million of costs to achieve this year. Moving now to capital, liquidity and funding. Our Core Tier 1 ratio has increased to 11.3% on a Basel 2.5 basis, reflecting a significant reduction in RWAs. Increasingly, our focus is solely on our CRD IV Common Equity Tier 1 measure as implementation on the 1st of January approaches. The estimated fully loaded CET1 ratio at the 30th of September was 8.4%, up from our estimates of 8.1% at the half year, helped by the significant reduction in CRD IV RWAs in Q3. Pro forma the Rights Issue, the fully loaded CET1 ratio is 9.6%. And as we announced in July, we expect to get to 10.5% on a fully loaded basis early in 2015. In addition to the reduction in RWAs, leverage exposure has also reduced. Tushar will say more on leverage shortly, and detailed calculations of the ratios are in the Appendix to the slide pack on the website. On liquidity and funding, our position remains strong, allowing us to reduce our liquidity pool in Q3 to GBP 130 billion, in line with our strategic funding plan. Based on Basel III standards, our leverage -- our Liquidity Coverage Ratio was 107% as of the end of September, down from 111% at the half year. We aim to fund the -- our retail banking, Corporate Banking and wealth businesses predominantly with customer deposits. The loan-to-deposit ratio for these businesses has improved significantly year-to-date from 102% to 94%, remaining stable during the past quarter. The group loan-to-deposit ratio was 100%, improved from 102% at the half year. This has reduced our term wholesale funding requirements, and our term issuance year-to-date has largely offset by that. Following the Rights Issue, we believe we are well capitalized on a risk-weighted ratio basis. And along with our commitment to meet the PRA's leverage ratio, these remain our primary focus in terms of capital parameters as we deliver our strategic plan. Before closing, a few words on current trading and outlook. As we saw in Q3, markets are still mixed, and consequently, we continue to be cautious about the environment in which we operate. So in closing, we believe underlying business performance year-to-date has been solid, with good growth in our corporate and retail franchises. We have made significant progress in managing down Exit Quadrant assets. We've made a successful start on delivering the Leverage Plan, with the Rights Issue completed and some initial reductions in leverage exposure. And perhaps most importantly, we remain acutely focused on costs where we expect to see the impact of the Transform program and the next wave of actions further reduce quarterly run rates as we drive towards our GBP 16.8 billion target in 2015. And with that, I'll now hand over to Tushar.