Ronald Domanico
Analyst · today only. Brink's assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. The call is copyrighted and may not be used without written permission from Brink's. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Ed Cunningham, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Mr. Cunningham, you may begin
Thanks, Doug, and good day, everyone. Second quarter results include revenue growth of 11% and operating profit growth of 17%, which reflect a margin rate increase of 50 basis points to 9.7% versus last year, we absorbed $5 million in Strategy 2.0 and its investment and an incremental $4 million in non-cash stock-based compensation. We achieved these results despite negative currency translation that reduced revenue by $74 million, operating profit by $19 million in earnings by $0.25 per share. During the quarter, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against most currencies. But most of the unfavorable ForEx was related to the Argentine pesos, which devalued by 47% versus last year. On a local currency basis, Argentina continued to deliver organic growth in both revenue and operating profit. So, the underlying health of this business remains strong. Our revenues and expenses are almost exclusively in country. So, foreign exchange is translational, not transactional. Consequently, our true operating performance is best measured on a local currency basis. In constant currency, revenue was up 20%, operating profit grew 41%, adjusted EBITDA was up 30% and EPS was up 40%. These results are a testament to the successful execution of our strategy to drive profitable growth both organically and through accretive acquisitions. And we have additional opportunities to continue the revenue and profit momentum that we've already achieved. Turning the slide six, our year-to-date results include revenue of 8%, operating profit up 18% and double digit increases and adjusted EBITDA and EPS. And constant currency, revenue was up 19%, operating profit grew 45%, adjusted EBITDA was up 36% and EPS up 50%. And, as Doug noted, historically, our second half is much stronger than the first and we're very comfortable affirming our full year guidance. Slide seven bridges first half 2019 operating profit to income from continuing operations, and then to adjusted EBITDA. The variance from the prior year is shown at the bottom of the slide. First half operating profit of $174 million, was reduced by $46 million of net interest expense versus 2018, the $20 million increase in that interest expense were driven by higher net debt associated with the acquisitions of Dunbar and Rodoban. Estimated taxes remain relatively unchanged from last year, as higher income is expected to be offset by 120 bps reduction in the non-GAAP effective tax rate, down to 33%. Last year's buyout of our minority partner in Colombia cut non-controlling interest in half. Year-to-date, income from continuing operations of $83 million divided by $50.9 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding generated $1.63 in earnings per share, an increase of 12% versus last year. For the full year, we expect EPS at the midpoint to increase 21%, as second half operating profit and should grow by 21%. On that interest expense only grows by 7%. Depreciation and amortization were $79 million, up 16% versus prior year due to acquisitions and the investments in our breakthrough initiatives. Interest in taxes discussed previously were $85 million and other is primarily comprised of non-cash stock-based compensation. First half 2019 adjusted EBITDA was $265 million, an increase of 16%. Slide eight was introduced last quarter to provide perspective on Argentina's currency devaluation, and its impact on Brink’s. In 2018, the Argentine pesos lost about half of its value to the U.S. dollar. We expect the peso to continue to devalue, but the impact of that devaluation, as you can see on the chart should decrease each quarter versus prior year comparisons. The bars on the top of this slide show the negative devaluation impact on reported U.S. dollar operating profit. The actual and forecasted 2019 quarterly average exchange rate is shown on the top of each bar, with the corresponding 2018 rates below each bar. This quarter, the devaluation of the peso had a negative impact of $17 million on reported profit. The bars at the bottom of the slide illustrate the year-over-year change and reported U.S. dollar operating profit. In the second quarter, inflation driven price increases, operational improvements and additional macro synergies offset about two-thirds of the devaluation resulting in a year-over-year decline of $6 million in reported U.S. operating profit. Year-over-year Argentina U.S. dollar operating profit is expected to be positive next quarter, but down approximately $10 million for the year. Based on past performance, we expect to return to pre-hyper devaluation profit levels by mid-2020. Our 2019 guidance is based on a full year average exchange rate of 45 Argentine pesos to the dollar. The scenarios on the right side of the slide illustrate the estimated impact of potential changes in the value of the peso. For everyone peso change in the full year average exchange rate, the impact is approximately $2 million or $0.02 per share. Importantly, we have no issues repatriating pesos into dollars, and do so frequently. Let's move to slide nine, free cash flow. We're making dramatic progress. Our 2019 guidance of $220 million in free cash flow is almost quadruple the amount generated only two years ago. Despite the growth in revenue, we're looking to maintain absolute levels of working capital. This will require continued improvement in ZSO and DPO which is tied to a component of the annual bonus. Cash taxes should benefit from a lower effective rate, utilization of foreign tax credits in the expected timing of tax refunds. Higher interest expense, higher CapEx and higher restructuring costs are each primarily related to the completed acquisitions, especially Dunbar and Rodoban. Nevertheless, we anticipate significant improvement in our free cash flow conversion metrics in 2019. It's important to note, that while operating profit and earnings are historically skewed to the second half, cash flow is even more so. Turning the slide 10. We illustrate our net debt and leverage position, both historically and assuming synergies from completed acquisitions through 2020. Our net debt at the end of 2019 is projected to be approximately 1.3 billion. That's up about $100 million over year-end 2018, as approximately $200 million invested in acquisitions is reduced by cash flow after dividends. At the end of 2019, our pro forma leverage is based on trailing 12 months, fully synergized EBITDA should be approximately two turns. Since early 2017, we've invested about $1.1 billion in acquisitions. Today, our deal pipeline remains robust and we want to illustrate the impact of another billion dollars in potential acquisitions at an average 7.5 multiple. The gray bar on the left shows the potential incremental investment could be funded entirely by debt. The gray bar on the right illustrates that pro forma adjusted EBITDA, including 12 months of estimated synergy should increase by about $135 million, and leverage would be about 2.9 turns. We expect that cash flow from our existing business combined with the additional acquisitions could reduce leverage back to two turns within three years. With the U.S. stock market near record highs, we've been getting questions about how the company could perform across economic cycles. Our revenue is highly recurring, with most business under multiyear contracts. Many contracts include, fuel surcharges and or CPI escalators, which protect margins. Cash grows through all cycles, but especially when credit tightens and should unemployment increase, we would expect workforce benefits through greater retention and moderated wage inflation, but ultimately, the strength of our balance sheet should facilitate success throughout economic cycles. With that, I'll turn it back over to Doug.